Where will it rain this weekend (Sep 5 - Sep 6)?
Short Answer
Miami is expected to see rain this weekend, September 5-6, 2026. The market prices this outcome at 82.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
Forecasts for the weekend of September 5-6 are the primary market driver. Reports indicated a shift to cooler, drier air for the northeastern U.S., though some areas retained a marginal risk of isolated showers for September 5. This general outlook counters rainfall events in other regions, such as an atmospheric river in the Pacific Northwest and widespread precipitation in parts of India.
The specific catalysts for large daily price changes, including a 26.0 percentage point spike on September 4, are not specified in the provided materials for New York City. The supplied context for significant moves on September 1, September 3, and September 4 references weather outlooks for Austin and Phoenix, not the metropolitan area relevant to this contract.
- Southern California faces rainfall risk from an atmospheric river starting September 6.
- Global forecast models project general Western U.S. precipitation from tropical moisture.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newark | 23.0% | 23.0% | Weather models predict a likelihood of rain occurring this weekend. |
| Philadelphia | 28.0% | 28.0% | Weather conditions suggest a possibility of rain over the weekend. |
| Miami | 82.0% | 82.0% | Miami often experiences rain in early September due to its tropical climate and hurricane season. |
| Boston | 18.0% | 18.0% | General weather patterns indicate a potential for rain this weekend. |
| New York City | 16.0% | 11.3% | Forecasts suggest a moderate chance of rain over the upcoming weekend. |
Current Context
Rainfall patterns for September 5-6, 2026, show varied regional impacts. An atmospheric river brought heavy precipitation to interior northern California, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho on September 5 [^]. In India, widespread rainfall was forecast for September 5 across Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, Muzaffarabad, and Himachal Pradesh. Heavy rainfall was anticipated at isolated locations in Uttarakhand and Northeast India on September 6 [^]. Conversely, the northeastern and midwestern United States saw a shift to cooler, drier air, though some areas carried a marginal risk of isolated showers or severe storms on Saturday, September 5 [^].
A strong El Niño event drives anomalous global precipitation patterns. This 'Super' El Niño event, active in late 2026, is expected to increase flood risks in the southwestern United States and potentially bring stormier, wetter autumn conditions to the UK [^]. This historically strong event is projected to affect weather patterns into 2027 [^].
The National Weather Service (NWS) does not issue a single national rainfall summary. Users must consult specific local NWS office forecasts for precise rain predictions for the upcoming weekend [^]. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is also seeking public comment on proposed changes to the Excessive Rainfall Outlook through September 5, 2026 [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Phoenix
📉 September 04, 2026: 53.0pp drop
Price decreased from 76.0% to 23.0%
What happened:
The primary driver for the 53.0 percentage point drop in the "Phoenix" outcome was traditional weather forecasting predicting a dry Labor Day weekend for the metropolitan area. On September 4, 2026, ABC15 reported that the Phoenix area was forecast to remain dry throughout September 5–6, 2026, as moisture shifted westward away from the Valley [^]. The National Weather Service in Phoenix also indicated that while some storm chances existed, they were primarily focused east of the Phoenix metro or in broader south-central Arizona [^].
Social media activity was not a primary driver, contributing accelerant, mostly noise, or irrelevant, as no relevant social media activity was found in the provided research.
Outcome: Austin
📈 September 03, 2026: 57.0pp spike
Price increased from 8.0% to 65.0%
What happened: No social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was found in the provided research to explain the 57.0 percentage point price spike on September 03, 2026. The primary driver appears to be a weather forecast that indicated a 20% to 30% chance of rain for Austin on September 5-6, 2026, due to lingering moisture from Tropical Storm Edouard's remnants, with potential "tropical downpours Friday" [^]. This forecast likely contradicted expectations of predominantly dry conditions from other sources, providing a strong catalyst for the market movement [^]. Social media was irrelevant as a primary driver, given the absence of any related posts or narratives in the available information.
📉 September 02, 2026: 70.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 8.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 70.0 percentage point drop was National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts for the weekend of September 5-6, 2026 [^][^]. These forecasts, available around the time of the market movement on September 2, 2026, indicated only a low to medium chance (15-45%) of isolated to scattered rain in the Austin/San Antonio region [^][^]. Crucially, the forecasts explicitly stated that minimal rain was anticipated in the Austin metro area specifically compared to areas further east [^]. This predictive weather information directly reduced the perceived likelihood of rain in Austin, leading the market price drop. No relevant social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was identified in the provided sources, rendering social media irrelevant to this price movement.
📈 September 01, 2026: 74.0pp spike
Price increased from 4.0% to 78.0%
What happened: The 74.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market on September 01, 2026, appears unrelated to meteorological data or external information regarding precipitation in Austin [^]. Weather forecasts for September 5-6, 2026, indicated only scattered rain chances and no widespread heavy rainfall, while Tropical Depression Edouard was not expected to be a primary source of rain by that weekend [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Since the term "74.0pp" refers to volatility spikes in market probability contracts explicitly unrelated to meteorological data [^], neither social media activity nor traditional news on weather were primary drivers. Instead, this movement likely reflects market structure factors or a technical recording of volatility within the prediction market platform itself [^]. Social media activity was irrelevant to this specific market movement.
Outcome: Denver
📈 August 31, 2026: 77.0pp spike
Price increased from 4.0% to 81.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price movement was traditional news reporting on actual weather conditions coinciding with the spike date. On August 31, 2026, Denver experienced light, uneven rainfall, while nearby high-elevation mountains received a light dusting of snow [^][^]. This immediate observation of precipitation, coupled with a general forecast for scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the Rockies for the Labor Day weekend [^][^][^], likely caused market participants to anticipate a higher probability of rain for Denver, despite the National Weather Service's 20% precipitation forecast for September 5-6 [^]. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Based on the provided page content:
1. YES resolution: A "Yes" resolution is triggered if it rains in the specified city (Austin, Denver, or Atlanta) during the weekend of September 5 - September 6. However, the precise definition of "rain" (e.g., amount, duration) and the official data source for determining it are not provided. 2. NO resolution: A "No" resolution is triggered if it does not rain in the specified city during the weekend of September 5 - September 6, based on the unspecified criteria for "rain." 3. Key dates/deadlines: The market begins on September 5, 12:00 am EDT, and concerns rain events occurring from September 5 to September 6. The maximum payout date is listed as September 7, 2026. 4. Special settlement conditions: The page does not explicitly state any special settlement conditions, nor does it define what constitutes "rain" or the official source used for resolution.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | $0.87 | $0.16 | 82% |
| Washington DC | $0.46 | $0.86 | 35% |
| Atlanta | $0.68 | $0.69 | 30% |
| Philadelphia | $0.24 | $0.80 | 28% |
| Trenton | $0.15 | $0.92 | 28% |
| Newark | $0.15 | $0.89 | 23% |
| Boston | $0.63 | $0.82 | 18% |
| New York City | $0.15 | $0.86 | 16% |
| Minneapolis | $0.81 | $0.31 | 81% |
| New Orleans | $0.82 | $0.59 | 75% |
| Houston | $0.73 | $0.50 | 73% |
| San Antonio | $0.66 | $0.79 | 67% |
| Austin | $0.66 | $0.70 | 66% |
| Dallas | $0.52 | $0.90 | 52% |
| Chicago | $0.69 | $0.73 | 26% |
| Oklahoma City | $0.11 | $0.99 | 4% |
| Denver | $0.71 | $0.45 | 55% |
| Los Angeles | $0.71 | $0.75 | 71% |
| Las Vegas | $0.65 | $0.81 | 59% |
| Seattle | $0.61 | $0.84 | 38% |
| Phoenix | $0.59 | $0.88 | 23% |
| San Francisco | $0.15 | $0.90 | 8% |
Market Discussion
For the weekend of September 5-6, 2026, widespread rain is forecast for the UK by September 6 [^], and across India, particularly in regions including Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and parts of Uttar Pradesh, with heavy rainfall expected at isolated locations [^][^][^]. In the United States, continued shower and thunderstorm activity is anticipated for the Intermountain West and Rockies, with potential for organized rain spreading across portions of the East/Southeast and mountain regions of Washington [^]. Conversely, the Northeastern US, Maryland, and Virginia are forecast to be mainly dry [^], while a strong El Niño event is driving high forecast uncertainty for potential rain or storm impacts on the US West Coast [^][^][^].
5. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
HoustonPrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality63Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality63Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 80
New York CityTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move (6h)
- Factor
- move_log_odds
- 0.16
MiamiTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality68Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality68Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
DenverTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality71Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality71Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
PhiladelphiaTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality71Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality71Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 98
BostonTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality40Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality40Mixed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 43
San AntonioTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality66Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality66Mostly confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Oklahoma CityTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality72Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality72Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
NewarkTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality52Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality52Mixed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 59
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 4, 2026
6. How are the Pacific atmospheric river and the Midwest cold front expected to influence rainfall in key market cities like Seattle and Chicago for September 5-6?
| Seattle Rainfall Expectation | No significant rainfall expected for September 5-6, 2026 [^] |
|---|---|
| Seattle Precipitation Probability | 30% or less (daytime for September 5-6, 2026) [^] |
| Chicago Chance of Showers | Low (20% on September 6) [^] |
Seattle expects minimal rainfall despite a Pacific atmospheric river influence. For September 5-6, 2026, Seattle is not expected to receive significant rainfall, with forecasts indicating partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions and rain clearing before the weekend [^]. The atmospheric river event impacting the Pacific Northwest is primarily forecast to bring precipitation to interior northern California, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho through the morning of September 5, 2026, rather than directly affecting the Seattle metro area during this period [^]. The National Weather Service (NWS) Seattle forecast supports this outlook, indicating partly cloudy conditions with a low probability of precipitation, 30% or less during the daytime, for those specific dates, without forecasting significant rainfall from a Pacific atmospheric river [^].
Chicago anticipates dry, warm conditions with low rain chances. Similarly, Chicago is expected to remain largely dry for September 5-6, 2026, with forecasts suggesting warm, partly cloudy conditions and a low risk of precipitation [^][^]. The NWS forecast for Chicago predicts mostly sunny to sunny conditions with highs near 80-82°F. On September 6, there is only a low 20% chance of showers, indicating that the anticipated influence of a cold front is not expected to cause significant rain on these days [^].
7. What do the leading global forecast models, GFS and ECMWF, project for precipitation across the U.S. for the weekend of September 5-6, 2026?
| Tropical Storm Marie Model Projections | GFS projects stronger, more northerly precipitation; ECMWF weaker, more southerly near California (Sept 5-6, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Excessive Rainfall Risk | Marginal Risk for parts of southwestern U.S., including southern California (Sept 6-7, 2026) [^] |
| Western U.S. Precipitation Outlook | Above-normal precipitation across western CONUS (Sept 5-9, 2026) [^][^] |
Western U.S. faces precipitation risks from atmospheric river and tropical moisture. For the weekend of September 5-6, 2026, forecasts indicate an atmospheric river targeting the Pacific Northwest and moisture from Tropical Storm Marie influencing California [^]. Meteorological models GFS and ECMWF show differing predictions for Tropical Storm Marie's impact near California; GFS projects a stronger, more northerly precipitation signal, while ECMWF predicts a weaker, more southerly one [^]. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for parts of the southwestern U.S., including southern California, extending from Sunday, September 6, through Monday, September 7, 2026 [^].
Other U.S. regions anticipate varied rainfall from moisture and frontal systems. Across other regions of the U.S. for the same weekend, general forecast models anticipate that moisture surges and tropical connections may enhance rainfall across parts of the Southwest and Intermountain West [^][^][^]. Daily thunderstorm activity is expected across the Southeast, Florida, and the Gulf Coast [^][^]. Active frontal boundaries are forecast to generate thunderstorms with potential flash flooding across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic [^]. The National Weather Service's 6-10 day outlook for September 5-9, 2026, highlights a trend of above-normal precipitation across the western CONUS, driven by anomalous troughing and moisture transport from the tropical East Pacific [^][^].
8. How do the rainfall probabilities for Seattle (Pacific Northwest) and New York City (Northeast) compare for September 5-6, given the different weather systems affecting each coast?
| Seattle Daytime Precipitation Probability | 30% (NWS) [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| NYC Daytime Precipitation Probability | 10-20% (NWS) [^][^][^][^] |
| NYC Nighttime Precipitation Probability | 10% (NWS) [^] |
Seattle anticipates partly cloudy skies with low precipitation chances for September 5-6. For the weekend of September 5-6, 2026, Seattle, WA, is generally expected to experience partly cloudy conditions, with a low probability of measurable precipitation. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts a 30% chance of precipitation during daytime hours on both days, with nighttime probabilities ranging from 10-30% [^][^][^]. This forecast aligns with typical Pacific Northwest weather patterns for early September, which often feature intermittent clouds but a lower rainfall risk compared to later in the autumn season.
In contrast, New York City expects clear, sunny weather due to a cold front. New York City, NY, is predicted to have clear or sunny conditions for the same weekend, following the passage of a cold front that is expected to clear out humidity [^][^][^]. This stable, sunny weather in NYC is attributed to the arrival of cooler, drier air post-front [^]. The NWS indicates a very low probability of precipitation for New York City, with a 10-20% chance during the daytime and a minimal 10% chance at night [^].
9. Where can traders find the most reliable, localized precipitation forecast data from the National Weather Service (NWS) for specific market cities like Denver and Austin?
| NWS Official Website | https://www.weather.gov [^] |
|---|---|
| Denver Local Forecast | weather.gov/bou [^] |
| Austin Local Forecast | weather.weather.gov/ewx [^] |
Traders access reliable precipitation forecasts directly from the NWS website. Traders can find reliable, localized precipitation forecast data for U.S. cities like Denver and Austin by visiting the National Weather Service (NWS) website at https://www.weather.gov [^][^][^][^]. Users can enter a specific city and state or ZIP code into the search bar to access granular 7-day point-forecasts. This official NWS portal serves as a primary source for detailed weather information.
NWS offers specific regional portals and advanced forecast products. For specific regional data, NWS provides dedicated portals. Denver, CO forecasts, including hourly and weekly precipitation probabilities (PoP), are available via weather.gov/bou [^]. For Austin, TX, precipitation forecasts and weather discussions are accessible through the NWS Austin/San Antonio office at weather.weather.gov/ewx, which offers routine updates on rain chances [^][^][^]. Traders needing structured data for historical or multi-day outlooks can utilize NWS 'Point Forecast Matrices' (PFM) and 'State Forecast Tables' (SFT) [^][^]. Advanced localized precipitation data, such as Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (PQPF), are available through NWS regional portals like https://www.weather.gov/crh/pqpf, alongside national forecast maps at https://www.weather.gov/forecastmaps/ [^][^].
Recent examples illustrate specific regional precipitation outlooks from NWS. Illustrating the level of detail provided, forecasts for the weekend of September 5–6, 2026, indicated isolated to scattered sea breeze rain showers and storms for areas east of the I-35 corridor in the Austin/San Antonio region [^][^]. Concurrently, the Denver/Boulder area was expected to experience monsoonal moisture supporting scattered to numerous storm coverage in the mountains and potential eastward movement onto the plains [^].
10. In what ways is the ongoing 'Super' El Niño event expected to alter typical precipitation patterns for the U.S. during the September 5-6 weekend?
| El Niño Status (as of Sept 4, 2026) | 'very strong' and strengthening [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| El Niño Historic Intensity Chance | greater than 90% by late 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| El Niño Impact on Sept 5-6, 2026 precipitation | Not expected to significantly alter patterns [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
The ongoing 'Super' El Niño is not expected to significantly alter U.S. precipitation this weekend. The 'Super' El Niño event, which is assessed as 'very strong' and strengthening as of September 4, 2026, is not anticipated to significantly alter typical precipitation patterns for the U.S. during the September 5-6, 2026, weekend [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Although there is a greater than 90% chance of this El Niño reaching historic intensity by late 2026, its influence is primarily seasonal and long-term, rather than dictating immediate, short-term weather for this specific period [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^].
Short-term weather systems will drive weekend precipitation patterns across the U.S. The forecasted precipitation for the September 5-6, 2026, weekend is instead driven by active short-term weather systems [^][^]. Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Southeast, along the Gulf Coast, in the Four Corners region, and in parts of the Northern Plains and Rockies [^][^]. Conversely, areas such as much of the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and New England are forecast to remain mainly dry, as cooler, less humid air is predicted to settle in [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Heavy rainfall is forecast across multiple Indian states for September 5, 2026, with Red Alerts issued for Dehradun, Shimla, and Muzaffarpur, and Orange Alerts for Mumbai and Patna due to flood risks [^] . In the US, an early-season atmospheric river was expected to impact the Pacific Northwest through September 5, with additional potential rainfall risk in Southern California starting September 6 [^]. The National Weather Service (NWS) provides localized, real-time precipitation forecasts at weather.gov to determine specific rain locations [^][^]. Long-range guidance from the Climate Prediction Center indicates potential for heavy precipitation in the North American monsoon region (southwestern U.S.) for September 11–13, 2026 [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 09, 2026
- Closes: September 07, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Heavy rainfall is forecast across multiple Indian states for September 5, 2026, with Red Alerts issued for Dehradun, Shimla, and Muzaffarpur, and Orange Alerts for Mumbai and Patna due to flood risks [^] .
- Trigger: In the US, an early-season atmospheric river was expected to impact the Pacific Northwest through September 5, with additional potential rainfall risk in Southern California starting September 6 [^] .
- Trigger: The National Weather Service (NWS) provides localized, real-time precipitation forecasts at weather.gov to determine specific rain locations [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Long-range guidance from the Climate Prediction Center indicates potential for heavy precipitation in the North American monsoon region (southwestern U.S.) for September 11–13, 2026 [^] .
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 7 resolved YES, 13 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRAINWKND-26AUG29-SFO: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26AUG29-SEA: YES (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26AUG29-SATX: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26AUG29-PHX: NO (Aug 31, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26AUG29-PHIL: YES (Aug 31, 2026)
