Where will Waymo operate in 2026?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- San Diego is among Waymo's current U.S. commercial operating metros.
- Denver shows significant operational progress toward a launch before 2027.
- Las Vegas initiated fully autonomous, rider-only operations by July 8, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver, CO | 76.0% | 83.5% | Denver could offer new operational challenges and a growing market for autonomous services. |
| San Diego, CA | 83.0% | 88.9% | Waymo may leverage its existing California operations for expansion into San Diego. |
| Tampa, FL | 85.0% | 90.4% | Florida's favorable regulatory climate and geography likely make it a strong candidate for expansion. |
| Sacramento, CA | 26.0% | 14.5% | Expansion within California may leverage existing Waymo infrastructure and regulatory approvals. |
| Las Vegas, NV | 61.0% | 69.8% | The city's tourist economy and proximity to other operations present a potential expansion opportunity. |
Current Context
Sources (19)
- 1Get updates on cities Waymo serveswaymo.com
- 2Announcements - Waymo Helpsupport.google.com
- 3Ready to Ride: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlandowaymo.com
- 4May 13, 2026 - From the roadwaymo.com
- 5Waymo is scaling fast. Here’s what the fleet data shows. | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
- 6Waymo to bring autonomous ride-hailing to Las Vegasreuters.com
- 7Where will Waymo operate this year?kalshi.com
- 8Where will Waymo operate in 2026? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 9Where will Waymo operate in 2026? - Compare Kalshi vs Manifold Markets Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 10Waymo Targets 27 Cities, 1M Weekly Rides in 2026nexchron.com
- 11A Research Vehicle for Automated and Connected Drivingarxiv.org
- 12Characterizing Driver Interactions with Autonomous...arxiv.org
- 13http://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.12675arxiv.org
- 14Comparison of Waymo Rider-Only Crash Data to Human Benchmarks at 7.1 Million Milesarxiv.org
- 15Waymo Public Road Safety Performance Dataarxiv.org
- 16The Era of End-to-End Autonomy: Transitioning from Rule-Based Driving to Large Driving Modelsarxiv.org
- 17123D: Unifying Multi-Modal Autonomous Driving Data at...arxiv.org
- 18A User-driven Design Framework for Robotaxiarxiv.org
- 19A User-driven Design Framework for Robotaxisarxiv.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Las Vegas, NV
📉 September 26, 2026: 14.0pp drop
Price decreased from 82.0% to 68.0%
📉 September 20, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 69.0% to 53.0%
📉 September 19, 2026: 28.0pp drop
Price decreased from 97.0% to 69.0%
Outcome: Sacramento, CA
📈 September 25, 2026: 25.0pp spike
Price increased from 24.0% to 49.0%
📉 September 22, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 39.0% to 24.0%
Sources (15)
- 1A Research Vehicle for Automated and Connected Drivingarxiv.org
- 2Waymo to bring autonomous ride-hailing to Las Vegasreuters.com
- 3Waymo launches limited robotaxi rides in Las Vegasreviewjournal.com
- 4Waymo opens robotaxi service in Las Vegas | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
- 5Waymo Expands Paid Robotaxi Service to Las Vegas, Its 15th City - Bloombergbloomberg.com
- 6Waymo launches public service for self-driving cars in Las Vegasnews3lv.com
- 7Waymo Gets Approval To Bring Its Full Driverless Ride Service To Sacramento – Folsom Timesfolsomtimes.com
- 8Is your California city on the list for Waymo's next expansion?mercurynews.com
- 9Waymo has the green light to hit Sacramento’s streets – DAILY CALIFORNIA PRESSdailycaliforniapress.com
- 10Waymo Opens San Diego Rides as California Robotaxi Map Growscalifornianewstimes.com
- 11Tesla, Waymo, and Zoox are driving a nightmarish year for these 2 stocksfinance.yahoo.com
- 12Waymo Receives Permission To Offer Rides In Sacramento And San Diegoengadget.com
- 13Waymo clears hurdle for robotaxi service in Sacramento | Sacramento Beesacbee.com
- 14Waymo approved to start rides in Sacramento, San Diego...cbsnews.com
- 15February 5, 2026 - From the roadwaymo.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The provided content does not explicitly detail the exact conditions that trigger a YES or NO resolution for Waymo operating in Sacramento, CA. The contract has a maximum payout date of December 31, 2026, and offers a 3.25% interest rate. No other special settlement conditions are mentioned.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa, FL | $0.87 | $0.15 | 85% |
| San Diego, CA | $0.85 | $0.20 | 83% |
| Denver, CO | $0.81 | $0.24 | 76% |
| Las Vegas, NV | $0.88 | $0.37 | 61% |
| Sacramento, CA | $0.30 | $0.74 | 26% |
| Charlotte, NC | $0.25 | $0.81 | 23% |
| Detroit, MI | $0.18 | $0.87 | 14% |
| Philadelphia, PA | $0.13 | $0.93 | 12% |
| St. Louis, MO | $0.65 | $0.96 | 10% |
| Seattle, WA | $0.12 | $0.91 | 9% |
| Tokyo, Japan | $0.05 | $0.97 | 9% |
| Boston, MA | $0.04 | $0.97 | 7% |
| Washington, DC | $0.05 | $0.96 | 7% |
| Chicago, IL | $0.04 | $0.98 | 5% |
| London, UK | $0.06 | $0.95 | 5% |
| New Orleans, LA | $0.08 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Baltimore, MD | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Minneapolis, MN | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| New York, NY | $0.04 | $0.97 | 4% |
| Pittsburgh, PA | $0.09 | $0.96 | 4% |
| Portland, OR | $0.05 | $0.97 | 4% |
Market Discussion
Waymo’s publicly documented U.S. commercial operations, as of September 27, 2026, include eleven metro areas such as the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Orlando, and Nashville [1][2][3]. The company has announced plans for expansion into numerous additional U.S.
5. Trust Index
“Las Vegas, NV” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
Market integrity is low (68), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. How do Denver and Detroit compare on key regulatory and operational milestones for a Waymo launch before 2027?
| Denver launch status | Fully driverless employee vehicle tests by summer 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Detroit launch status | Familiarization and winter testing announced November 3, 2025 [3][4] |
| Denver market prediction | Near 99% for qualifying before-year-end operation (as of September 2, 2026) [5][6][4] |
Sources (9)
- 1Waymo begins fully driverless vehicle tests in Denver, eyes...9news.com
- 2Waymo starts driverless rides in San Diego, Las Vegas...cnbc.com
- 3November 3, 2025 - From the road - Waymowaymo.com
- 4Where Will Waymo Launch Next? City Odds | Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
- 5Waymo Denver launch before Jan 1 draws heavy backing · CM Signalclearmarket.fyi
- 6Where will Waymo operate this year?kalshi.com
- 7What Happens If a Waymo Hits You in Denver?coloradopersonalinjuryhelp.com
- 8Where will Waymo operate in 2026? - Compare Kalshi vs Manifold Markets Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 9Where will Waymo operate in 2026? · ClearMarketclearmarket.fyi
7. What on-the-ground evidence confirms Waymo's Las Vegas operations meet the 'paid, public, fully autonomous' criteria before 2027?
| Autonomous Operations Start Date | July 8, 2026 (no human specialist) [1] |
|---|---|
| Regulatory Approval for Paid Service | August 20/21, 2026 (Nevada Transportation Authority) [2] |
| Public Paid Access Status | Not yet confirmed as of September 27, 2026 [3] |
Sources (9)
- 1July 8, 2026 - From the road - Waymowaymo.com
- 2Nevada opens roads for Tesla, Waymo and Uber's Aviari...lasvegassun.com
- 3Robotaxi Status September 2026 — Waymo, Tesla & Zooxthechargeport.com
- 4Waymo goes driverless in Las Vegas, with Denver, San...electrek.co
- 5Waymo Updates | Get updates on cities Waymo serveswaymo.com
- 6FAQ - Answers to Questions About Self-Driving Cars - Waymoblog.waymo.com
- 7Ride-Hailing App - Make the Most of Your Drive - Waymoblog.waymo.com
- 8Where will Waymo operate in 2026? - Compare Kalshi vs Manifold Markets Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 9Where will Waymo operate in 2026? · ClearMarketclearmarket.fyi
8. What potential safety incidents or regulatory changes could accelerate or halt Waymo's multi-city expansion plan before January 1, 2027?
| NHTSA Recall (Construction Zones) | 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Nevada Permit (Clark County) | Up to 1,000 autonomous vehicles [2] |
| NHTSA Investigation Closure | July 2025 [3][4][5] |
Sources (12)
- 1Part 573 Safety Recall Report 26E035static.nhtsa.gov
- 2Waymo accelerates robotaxi expansion with launches in...techcrunch.com
- 3NHTSA Closes Waymo Investigation: Key Takeaways for...huschblackwell.com
- 4Waymo recalls 1200 self-driving vehicles in US after minor...reuters.com
- 5Manufacturer Name: Waymo LLCAddress: 1600 Amphitheatre ParkwayMountain View CA 94043Company phone: 253-0000static.nhtsa.gov
- 6On higher speed roadways, the Waymo AV may slow but not stop in response to detecting a potentially untraversable flooded lane.static.nhtsa.gov
- 7U.S. expands investigation into Waymo over robotaxis...cbsnews.com
- 8Where Will Waymo Launch Next? City Odds | Kalshi | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
- 9Where will Waymo operate in 2026? · ClearMarketclearmarket.fyi
- 10Where will Waymo operate in 2026? - Compare Kalshi vs Manifold Markets Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 11Standing General Order on Crash Reportingnhtsa.gov
- 12Part 573 Safety Recall Report 26E035static.nhtsa.gov
9. What is the typical timeline of Waymo's official city launch announcements, from initial testing to full public availability in 2026?
| Time from limited to broad public access | Approximately 4 to 6 months [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Nashville broad availability date | June 25, 2026 (after April interest list) [1] |
| Dallas broad availability date | August 4, 2026 (after February limited access) [2] |
Sources (8)
- 1June 25, 2026 - From the road - Waymowaymo.com
- 2August 4, 2026 - From the road - Waymowaymo.com
- 3August 20, 2026 - From the road - Waymowaymo.com
- 4Ready to Ride: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlandowaymo.com
- 5Same Driver, new vehicle: Welcoming our first riders trips in the Ojaiwaymo.com
- 6Beginning fully autonomous operations with the 6th-generation Waymo Driverwaymo.com
- 7Where will Waymo operate in 2026? · ClearMarketclearmarket.fyi
- 8Where will Waymo operate in 2026? - Compare Kalshi vs Manifold Markets Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
10. How does the regulatory pathway for a Waymo launch in London compare to the process in a U.S. city like Washington, D.C. for 2026?
| London Regulatory Act Effective Date | May 15, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Washington D.C. Commercial Pathway Status | No operative driverless-commercial pathway by September 27, 2026 [3][4][5][6] |
| Public Autonomous Rides Standard Met | Not met in London or Washington D.C. by September 27, 2026 [7][8][3][9][10][11] |
Sources (17)
- 1The Automated Vehicles (Permits for Automated Passenger Services) Regulations 2026legislation.gov.uk
- 2Passengers one step closer to booking taxi and bus-style self-driving vehicles - GOV.UKgov.uk
- 3Autonomous Vehicles | ddotddot.dc.gov
- 4GOVERNMENT OF THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIAddot.dc.gov
- 5Public Hearing on B26-0684 - the "Autonomous Vehicle Deployment Authorization Amendment Act of 2026" | ddotddot.dc.gov
- 6Autonomous Vehicles Regulatory Landscape Updateenotrans.org
- 7FOI request detail - Transport for Londontfl.gov.uk
- 8FOI request detail - Transport for Londontfl.gov.uk
- 9London rollout of robotaxis delayed amid lack of guidance...theguardian.com
- 10Where will Waymo operate in 2026? · ClearMarketclearmarket.fyi
- 11Where will Waymo operate in 2026? - Compare Kalshi vs Manifold Markets Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 12Autonomous Passenger Vehicles in London | London City Halllondon.gov.uk
- 13Waymo in London | Learn about Waymo in the UKwaymo.com
- 14April 14, 2026 - From the road - Waymowaymo.com
- 15Next stop for Waymo One: Washington, D.C.waymo.com
- 16Driverless Cars Coming to the District's Neighborhoodsjgllaw.com
- 174 Wild Rules For DC Waymos | ThisWeekInTheDMVfoxessellfaster.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (12)
- 1Get updates on cities Waymo serveswaymo.com
- 2Ready to Ride: Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlandowaymo.com
- 3May 13, 2026 - From the roadwaymo.com
- 4Announcements - Waymo Helpsupport.google.com
- 5Waymo opens robotaxi rides to the public in 3 new cities, now 14 total | Electrekelectrek.co
- 6Waymo is scaling fast. Here’s what the fleet data shows. | TechCrunchtechcrunch.com
- 7Singapore, Next Stop: Bringing Scalable, Safe Autonomous Mobility to the Lion Citywaymo.com
- 8Waymo Is Quickly Expanding to More Cities. Everything...cnet.com
- 9Waymo Profitability Forecast: Rides, Margins, and Losses Through 2027futuresearch.ai
- 10Will Waymo Launch in Tampa, FL by December 31? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
- 11Where will Waymo operate in 2026? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 12Where Will Waymo Operate This Year?next.io