Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 10 - Oct 11)?
Short Answer
Rain is likely in Atlanta this weekend, October 10-11, 2026, with the market pricing this outcome at 99.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market for rain in New York City saw its largest price movement between October 5 and October 6, when the implied probability jumped from 55% to 88%. The move was accompanied by the highest trading volume of the period.
The provided context for market activity on October 6 attributes a price spike to weather forecasts for West Palm Beach. No specific driver is reported that coincides with the price movement in the New York City contract. The market has since stabilized, trading in a narrow range above 90%.
The contract will resolve based on precipitation data from The Weather Company for October 10-11, 2026. Settlement is scheduled for October 12.
- Atlanta, West Palm Beach, New Orleans show high precipitation probability from Tropical Depression Nine.
- Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Seattle have low precipitation probability per official NOAA/CPC forecasts.
Current Context
Prediction markets indicate rain probability in select US cities. The relevant contracts cover U.S. cities and resolve from Weather Company daily precipitation data for October 10–11, 2026, with trace precipitation and missing values counting as zero [1][2]. Settlement is scheduled for October 12 [1][2]. At the time of a retrieved Robinhood market page, displayed prices were Los Angeles 61¢, Las Vegas 55¢, and Seattle 31¢ [1]. These are market prices, not direct probabilities or official forecasts [1]. A retrieved Kalshi odds page showed Atlanta at over 99%, where a positive result signifies total precipitation strictly greater than 0 inches at the relevant airport climate station on either October 10 or 11 [2].
NOAA guidance points to wetter conditions in the East and Southwest. NOAA/CPC’s 6–10-day discussion favored above-normal precipitation across much of the eastern contiguous United States, with probabilities above 50% in parts of the Southeast [3]. It also favored wetter conditions in Southern California and the interior West, while below-normal precipitation was favored in the northwestern CONUS [3]. For the broader October 10–14 pattern, guidance described a trough over the western CONUS with enhanced tropical-Pacific moisture, supporting above-normal precipitation in Southern California/interior West and much of the eastern CONUS [4][3]. The Northwest was comparatively drier [4][3]. NOAA’s official 6–10-day products, updated October 5–6, cover October 11–15 or October 12–16; they provide pattern guidance rather than a precise city-by-city forecast for the full October 10–11 weekend [5][6]. A severe-weather outlook for Saturday, October 10, assigned a 15% any-severe risk and identified a potentially impactful tropical/cyclone-related setup near the central Gulf Coast; Sunday predictability was described as too low [7].
Local point forecasts show rain risk; seasonal outlook offers context. Point forecasts retrieved for selected locations indicated a rain risk in the Central U.S. on Saturday, October 10, with approximately 7.2 mm [8]. Forecasts also showed Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, with a total of about 22.4 mm across both days [9], and Choa Chu Kang, Singapore, with about 8.2 mm on Saturday [10]. These are model-based local forecasts and should be treated as lower-confidence this far out [8][9][10]. The seasonal U.S. outlook characterized Fall 2026 as generally drier in the interior but wetter along parts of the West Coast, central/northern Rockies, Texas, southern Florida, and the Northeast [11]. This seasonal outlook serves as background climate context, not a specific weekend forecast [11].
Sources (11)
- 1October 10, 2026: Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 10 - Oct 11) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 10 - Oct 11)? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 and 8-14 Day Prognostic Discussionscpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 4https://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/national/FXUS06atmos.albany.edu
- 5Climate Prediction Center - 6 to 10 Day Outlookscpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 6Climate Prediction Center - 6 to 10 Day Outlookscpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 7Outlook for Saturday, October 10 | Severe Weather Outlooksevereweatheroutlook.com
- 8Weekend Weather in Central, United States – Saturday & Sunday Forecastweathersweep.com
- 9Weekend Weather in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia – Saturday & Sunday Forecastweathersweep.com
- 10Weekend Weather in Choa Chu Kang New Town, Singapore – Saturday & Sunday Forecastweathersweep.com
- 11Fall 2026 Weather Predictions: U.S. & Canada Forecastsalmanac.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Boston
📈 October 07, 2026: 58.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 73.0%
What happened: The 58.0 percentage point spike in the "Boston" prediction market on October 7, 2026, was primarily driven by traditional news reports. On that date, NBC Boston announced that remnant tropical rain could reach New England, although timing was uncertain, ranging from Sunday afternoon to late Sunday night/Monday [1][2]. Despite forecasts indicating a mostly dry Saturday and showers developing late Sunday [3], this news likely spurred market participants to increase the perceived probability of rain. No social media activity was identified as a driver of this market movement.
Outcome: West Palm Beach
📈 October 06, 2026: 72.0pp spike
Price increased from 24.0% to 96.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 72.0 percentage point price spike for West Palm Beach was the emerging weather forecasts on October 06, 2026, which indicated a high probability of precipitation for the city on Saturday, October 10, 2026 [4]. One specific forecast predicted a 72% precipitation probability and 0.28 inches of rain for West Palm Beach on October 10 [5]. This was corroborated by broader regional forecasts highlighting heavy rain and flash flood potential across Florida and the Southeast [6]. Social media activity was irrelevant as no related information was identified in the provided research.
Outcome: Atlanta
📈 October 05, 2026: 48.0pp spike
Price increased from 8.0% to 56.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 48.0 percentage point spike for "Atlanta" on October 05, 2026, was updated traditional news and weather reporting. On that date, local and regional news outlets reported forecasts indicating tropical moisture would bring substantial weekend rain, including a Sunday Level 2 of 4 flood threat for Georgia and the Southeast [7][6][8]. This widespread reporting of a heightened rain probability directly coincided with and catalyzed the market's price movement [9][6][10][7]. Social media activity was not indicated as a factor in the provided information.
Sources (10)
- 1Weather today goes from frost to 70s then timing rain – NBC Bostonnbcboston.com
- 2Frosty start today, timing remnant rain in New England from tropical storm – NBC Bostonnbcboston.com
- 3Boston, MA 10 Day Weather. Forecast for Boston, MA - United States, Massachusettsglobalmeteo.com
- 4West Palm Beach, FL Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
- 5Weather 10 days - West Palm Beach, FLweather-atlas.com
- 6Weekend of wet weather, flash flood threat ahead for millions in the Southeast | Fox Weatherfoxweather.com
- 7Sunshine returns Tuesday, rain returns this weekendatlantanewsfirst.com
- 8A wet first weekend of October in store for the Carolinaswpde.com
- 9Weather Prediction Center (WPC) Home Pagenoaa.gov
- 10Widespread rain to move out of North Georgia – WSB-TV Channel 2 - Atlantawsbtv.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves "YES" for a given city if it rains there during the weekend of October 10-11, and "NO" if it does not. The market period begins on Saturday, October 10, at 12:00 am EDT. The specific criteria defining what constitutes "rain" for resolution purposes are not detailed in the provided content.
Market Discussion
Prediction market indicators as of October 7, 2026, suggest high probabilities of measurable rain this weekend (October 10-11) for Atlanta (99%), Los Angeles (61%), and Las Vegas (55%), with Seattle at 31% [1][2]. Weather forecasts indicate the U.S. Southeast, encompassing Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas, is projected as the principal wet zone, potentially receiving 2-5 inches of rain and facing a Sunday Level 2/4 flood threat from Mobile, Alabama, to the Carolinas [3][4][5][6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1October 10, 2026: Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 10 - Oct 11) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 10 - Oct 11)? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3AFD from KGSPkamala.cod.edu
- 4SFT from KCHSkamala.cod.edu
- 5South Carolina at Florida Weather Forecast — October 10, 2026weather.football
- 6Weekend of wet weather, flash flood threat ahead for millions in the Southeast | Fox Weatherfoxweather.com
- 7A wet first weekend of October in store for the Carolinaswpde.com
5. Trust Index
“Houston” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score78Good
Market integrity is low (67), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score64Caution
Trust score75Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What are the key storm systems or atmospheric patterns that could shift the precipitation forecast for the Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. during the October 10-11 weekend?
| Key Weather System | Tropical Depression Nine, expected to strengthen to Tropical Storm Isaias and potentially a hurricane [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Forecast Rainfall | 3–6 inches, with local amounts up to 10 inches [1][2] |
| Impacted Region | Southeastern Louisiana across the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Panhandle [1][2] |
Tropical Depression Nine poses a significant precipitation threat to the Gulf Coast. This system is the primary weather influence for the Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. during the October 10-11 weekend, expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Isaias and potentially a hurricane before approaching the northern Gulf Coast around October 9-10 [1][2]. The resulting precipitation event is primarily sensitive to the tropical cyclone's track, intensity, size, and forward speed, rather than a typical frontal-rain setup [3][1]. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts rainfall amounts of 3–6 inches, with local amounts up to 10 inches, extending from southeastern Louisiana across the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Panhandle [1][2]. This level of precipitation makes flash, urban, and isolated river flooding possible [1][2].
Storm track uncertainty significantly influences the specific areas of heaviest rainfall. A significant factor for this forecast is the unusually important track uncertainty, with substantial along- and across-track spread, and confidence remaining below average despite an eastward shift in the official forecast track [2]. The synoptic steering pattern suggests a northeast-to-north turn for the storm due to an upper trough over Texas/Rockies and a westward-shifting subtropical ridge [2]. A farther-west or slower track would concentrate heavier rain and flooding over Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle [3][2]. Conversely, an eastward or faster track would shift the heaviest precipitation towards coastal Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and potentially the broader Southeast [3][2]. Given that NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) products available on October 6 were primarily valid for October 12–16 and October 14–20, short-range NHC/Weather Prediction Center (WPC) updates are crucial for the October 10–11 market window [4][5].
Sources (5)
- 1https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.public.001.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
- 2https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4%2Bshtml/070255.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
- 3Tropical Depression Nine forms in Gulf, hurricane forecast...abc3340.com
- 46 to 10 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center - NOAAcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 58 to 14 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center - NOAAcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
7. What specific model data and official forecasts from the NOAA/CPC support the high market odds for precipitation in Los Angeles on October 10-11?
| Official forecast support for Oct 10-11 | Not supported by NOAA/CPC evidence [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| CPC 6–10-day outlook period | October 12–16, 2026 [1][5] |
| CPC 8–14-day outlook period | October 14–20, 2026 [2] |
Official NOAA/CPC forecasts do not support high precipitation odds for Los Angeles on October 10–11, 2026. The available official outlooks from NOAA/CPC were temporally misaligned with the specific dates in question, meaning they did not directly cover the October 10–11, 2026 window [1][2][3][4]. For instance, NOAA/CPC's 6–10-day outlook, issued on October 6, 2026, was valid for October 12–16, while its 8–14-day outlook, also from October 6, 2026, covered October 14–20 [1][2][5]. Both of these standard products fell outside the October 10–11 timeframe, preventing them from being used as direct official forecasts for the queried dates [1][2][5].
Local NWS and CPC station products also did not show rain for these dates. The NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard office page, updated on October 6–7, 2026, described an extreme heat episode and a cooldown but did not state measurable rain for Los Angeles on October 10–11 [3][4]. An NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard zone forecast product issued October 5, 2026, similarly lacked a weekend rain probability or amount for these dates [6]. Additionally, a CPC station-product page for Los Angeles did not expose a verifiable precipitation probability or amount for October 10–11, and should not be interpreted as evidence of high rain odds [7].
Sources (7)
- 16 to 10 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center - NOAAcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 28 to 14 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center - NOAAcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 3Los Angeles, CAweather.gov
- 4Los Angeles, CAweather.gov
- 5Climate Prediction Center - 6 to 10 Day Outlookscpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 6National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 7Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
8. How do the precipitation forecasts for Los Angeles and Las Vegas compare for October 10-11, given their differing exposure to the forecast trough and Pacific moisture?
| Firm rain forecast (Oct 10-11, 2026) | Not available for Los Angeles or Las Vegas as of Oct 7, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Las Vegas baseline precipitation | Driest major metropolitan area in continental US, low potential due to mountain blockage [3] |
| Measurable rain probability (Oct 10-11, 2026) | Lower in Las Vegas compared to Los Angeles [4][5][2] |
Initial forecasts show no firm quantitative rain predictions for either city. As of October 7, 2026, neither Los Angeles nor Las Vegas had a specific quantitative rain forecast for October 10–11, 2026 [1][2]. However, available information indicates a lower probability of measurable rain in Las Vegas compared to Los Angeles for that period [4][5][2]. Los Angeles is anticipating a weekend cool-down, while Las Vegas expects increased winds, cooler temperatures, and a potential return of rain chances late weekend into early next week [1][2].
Las Vegas's geography generally limits its exposure to Pacific moisture. Las Vegas typically has a lower baseline precipitation potential compared to Los Angeles because the Spring Mountains and Sierra Nevada commonly block Pacific moisture [3]. The NWS Las Vegas describes it as the driest major metropolitan area in the continental United States, where many fall storm systems bring wind but no precipitation [3]. The synoptic setup for this period suggests Los Angeles is closer to the Pacific moisture source and would be more exposed if a trough digs south, whereas Las Vegas would require moisture to cross significant barriers [1][6][7].
Inconsistent guidance reinforces the low probability for Las Vegas precipitation. Point guidance for Las Vegas around October 10-11 has been inconsistent, ranging from mostly sunny conditions to slight shower chances in nearby higher terrain [4][5][2]. This reinforces the conclusion that measurable rain in Las Vegas for October 10–11 should be treated as a lower-probability outcome than rain or showers in Los Angeles, rather than a settled forecast [4][5][2]. Historical examples of rain in both cities from strong systems do not establish the forecast for this specific period [8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Los Angeles, CAweather.gov
- 2Las Vegas, NVweather.gov
- 3Climate of Las Vegasweather.gov
- 47-Day Forecast 35.94N 115.51W - National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 57-Day Forecast 35.63N 115.48W - National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 6Weather West - California weather and climate perspectivesweatherwest.com
- 7[PDF] January 2027 South Ops Highlights October 2026 - GACCgacc.nifc.gov
- 8Tropical downpours to drench Los Angeles, Las Vegas during...accuweather.com
- 9Robust Pacific storm to lurk off California coast, instigating...accuweather.com
9. What are the official airport climate stations used for settlement, and where can the definitive precipitation data from The Weather Company be accessed after October 11?
| Official Data Provider for Kalshi | The Weather Company, effective August 27, 2026 (August 27, 2026 [1]) |
|---|---|
| Designated Climate Stations | Government-designated NWS climate stations (market rules [2]) |
| Settlement Report Requirement | First eligible non-preliminary climate report (contract terms [3]) |
Official government-designated NWS climate stations determine settlement for weather market outcomes. These stations are identified by their station ID and airport or location name, adhering to market rules [2]. The Weather Company was officially announced as the authoritative observation data provider for Kalshi weather market outcomes on August 27, 2026 [1].
The Weather Company provides definitive precipitation data post-event via its Kalshi page. The 'Official Climate Reports' section on The Weather Company's Kalshi Weather Data page serves as the authoritative access point for verified observations from official government climate stations [4]. Precipitation data is measured by airport ASOS/AWOS systems, with station summaries available through NOAA/NCEI Local Climatological Data (LCD) records [2]. For independent verification, users can consult the NOAA/NCEI Local Climatological Data search or its interactive map, which supports airport ASOS/AWOS stations and provides daily summaries, hourly precipitation, and certified reports [5].
Precipitation settlement requires the first non-preliminary report for the full period. Specifically, for precipitation settlement over a particular duration, the first eligible non-preliminary climate report that records precipitation for the entire specified period must be utilized. Contract terms explicitly exclude any revisions made after the expiration of this period [3]. It is crucial to avoid unofficial sources such as Weather Underground, consumer forecasts, or unofficial METAR archives unless they are explicitly designated by the market rules [3].
10. What meteorological evidence from NOAA and other forecasters supports the market's lower pricing for precipitation in Seattle for the weekend of October 10-11?
| KING 5 Sat Precipitation Chance | 22% for October 10, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| KING 5 Sun Precipitation Chance | 7% for October 11, 2026 [1] |
| Weather Underground Sat Precipitation Chance | Approximately 13%-15% for October 10, 2026 [2][3][4] |
Consistent meteorological forecasts indicate a low probability of precipitation in Seattle for October 10-11, 2026. These forecasts support the market's lower pricing for precipitation during that weekend, consistently describing generally dry conditions with a clearing weather pattern. The NOAA/NWS Seattle point forecast, updated October 6, 2026, specifically predicted dry conditions for the target weekend following a 50% chance of rain on Friday, October 9 [5]. For Saturday, October 10, the forecast was partly sunny with a high near 59°F, transitioning to mostly clear Saturday night, and sunny Sunday, October 11, with a high near 60°F [5]. The National Weather Service's forecast pattern implied a relatively stable, clearing weather regime over Seattle rather than an organized precipitation event [5].
Multiple forecasters reinforce predictions of minimal weekend precipitation. KING 5's 10-day Seattle forecast, for instance, priced the probability of precipitation at 22% for Saturday, October 10, and significantly lower at just 7% for Sunday, October 11 [1]. Independent forecasts from Weather Underground for various Seattle locations showed approximately 13%-15% precipitation probability on Saturday, October 10, with no measurable precipitation anticipated [2][3][4]. This convergence of forecasts across NOAA/NWS, KING 5, and Weather Underground, all placing the weekend precipitation probability in the 7%-22% range, serves as the strongest meteorological explanation for the market's lower precipitation pricing [1][5][2][3][4].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Market contracts for measurable precipitation during Oct 10–11, 2026, settle from an official or specified weather-data source rather than generic application forecasts [1][2][3]. Prices can move sharply as model runs, satellite/radar observations, and storm-track changes alter measurable-precipitation probabilities [3]. Robinhood lists Los Angeles at 61¢, Las Vegas at 55¢, and Seattle at 31¢, while a Kalshi odds page also lists Atlanta [1][2]. Settlement is defined by Weather Company daily precipitation strictly greater than 0 inches, with trace amounts counted as zero [2].
The most important repricing windows are the twice-daily model updates. ECMWF ensemble products run at 00 and 12 UTC [4], and CPC-style 6–10-day guidance explicitly blends ECMWF, GEFS, Canadian, and ensemble precipitation tools [5]. The critical periods for market shifts are these model updates, followed by the Oct 10–11 observation period and the Oct 12, 2026 settlement date [1][2][3][6]. The 6–10-day outlook for Oct 10–14 favors above-normal precipitation across the eastern contiguous United States, Southern California, the interior West, and Hawaii, with probabilities above 60% in parts of the Southeast [5]. Near-to-below-normal precipitation is favored for much of the West Coast west of the trough axis [5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: October 14, 2026
- Closes: October 12, 2026
Sources (6)
- 1October 10, 2026: Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 10 - Oct 11) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 10 - Oct 11)? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Weather predictions - Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 4ECMWF | Advancing global NWP through international...ecmwf.int
- 5https://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/national/FXUS06atmos.albany.edu
- 6WIS Portalgisc.dwd.de
13. Related News
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 10 resolved YES, 10 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT03-WPB: YES (Oct 05, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT03-TTN: YES (Oct 05, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT03-SFO: NO (Oct 05, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT03-SEA: NO (Oct 05, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT03-SATX: NO (Oct 05, 2026)
