How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?
Short Answer
Strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to enhance Eastern Pacific hurricane activity, making it likely there will be more than three major hurricanes this year, with the market pricing this outcome at 73.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market, which appears to track a final count of exactly three major Eastern Pacific hurricanes in 2026, saw its probability fall from 42% to 33% on September 10. The drop coincided with reports that the third major hurricane of the season had just formed. The price reaction suggests traders believe the same conditions that produced the third storm now increase the probability of a fourth before the season ends on November 30.
The news met a necessary condition for the contract, but the market priced in the increased risk of the total count exceeding three. Reports of an El Niño effect supercharging the basin support this interpretation. The price move occurred on zero reported volume, implying it was a market-maker adjustment based on new meteorological data rather than direct trading activity.
- Above 3 major hurricanes is likely, driven by strengthening El Niño conditions.
- Strong El Niño conditions may push activity past 4 or 5 major hurricanes.
- Madden-Julian Oscillation could significantly enhance or suppress late-season hurricane development.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 6 | 33.0% | 32.3% | El Niño conditions are expected to enhance activity, suggesting the formation of more than six major hurricanes. |
| Above 4 | 54.0% | 57.2% | Strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to enhance activity, likely leading to more than four major hurricanes. |
| Above 5 | 46.0% | 42.6% | Expected El Niño conditions will likely enhance hurricane activity, potentially bringing the total above five. |
| Above 7 | 20.0% | 24.9% | Strengthening El Niño conditions are expected to enhance activity, potentially bringing the total above seven major hurricanes. |
| Above 8 | 10.0% | 19.4% | Expected El Niño conditions will likely enhance hurricane activity, suggesting the total may exceed eight major hurricanes. |
Current Context
Three major hurricanes have formed in the Eastern Pacific so far. The 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season has produced three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) as of September 10, 2026 [^][^]. The season is ongoing through November 30, and the total count of major hurricanes for the full year 2026 is not yet finalized [^][^][^].
Forecasters anticipate an active season driven by El Niño conditions. Seasonal predictions from NOAA and AccuWeather indicated an active 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season [^][^][^]. NOAA forecast 5-9 major hurricanes, while AccuWeather projected 4-8 major hurricanes [^][^][^]. El Niño conditions are fueling the Eastern Pacific season and are expected to potentially reach historic strength later in 2026 [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 8
📉 September 09, 2026: 90.0pp drop
Price decreased from 99.0% to 9.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 90 percentage point drop was the low actual count of major Eastern Pacific hurricanes reported officially in early September 2026. As of September 2 and 3, 2026, the National Hurricane Center identified only two major hurricanes, Genevieve and Karina, for the 2026 season [^][^]. This significantly lagged initial forecasts like NOAA's prediction of 5-9 major hurricanes [^][^][^], making the "Above 8" outcome highly improbable for the remainder of the season. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or significant factor based on the provided information.
Outcome: Above 6
📉 September 06, 2026: 21.0pp drop
Price decreased from 42.0% to 21.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 21.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 6" outcome on September 06, 2026, was likely the low number of major Eastern Pacific hurricanes observed to date in the season. As of September 3, 2026, only two major hurricanes had formed in the Eastern Pacific basin [^][^]. This significantly lagged behind initial forecasts from NOAA and AccuWeather, which had predicted 5–9 and 4–8 major hurricanes, respectively, for the season [^][^]. This data update, preceding the market movement, indicated a decreased likelihood of reaching the "Above 6" threshold. Social media was an irrelevant factor, as no related activity or influential posts were identified in the provided sources.
Outcome: Above 4
📉 September 03, 2026: 11.0pp drop
Price decreased from 69.0% to 58.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not indicate social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors as the primary driver for the 11.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 4" major Eastern Pacific hurricanes market on September 3, 2026. As of that date, there had been 2 major hurricanes recorded in the Eastern Pacific season, with three hurricanes (Lowell, Karina, and Marie) active simultaneously [^][^][^][^]. Without further information detailing a specific event or widely disseminated sentiment shift, it is not possible to attribute the price movement to a discernible cause from the given sources. Therefore, social media was irrelevant based on the available data.
📈 August 28, 2026: 21.0pp spike
Price increased from 54.0% to 75.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market spike on August 28, 2026, was Hurricane Lowell intensifying into a Category 5 storm on August 27, 2026 [^]. This development, signifying a major hurricane, occurred one day before the market movement and likely increased confidence in the "Above 4" outcome for major Eastern Pacific hurricanes [^]. There is no information provided regarding social media activity influencing this price movement. Thus, a traditional news event detailing hurricane activity was the primary driver.
Outcome: Above 3
📈 August 31, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 71.0% to 88.0%
What happened: No specific social media activity or traditional news announcement from August 31, 2026, is provided that explains the 17.0 percentage point spike in the market for "Above 3" major Eastern Pacific hurricanes. As of that date, only two major hurricanes, Genevieve and Karina, had formed [^]. While official forecasts earlier in the year projected 4-9 major hurricanes for the season, suggesting a general expectation for exceeding three [^], the specific catalyst for an abrupt upward movement on August 31 is not present in the available information. Therefore, social media was irrelevant, and no other primary driver can be definitively established from the provided data.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if the total number of major Eastern Pacific hurricanes this year exceeds the specified threshold (e.g., "Above 3"). Conversely, a NO resolution occurs if the total count is equal to or less than the threshold. The market's resolution is based on the final count for the year, with a maximum payout date of December 1, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3 | $0.81 | $0.30 | 73% |
| Above 4 | $0.61 | $0.50 | 54% |
| Above 5 | $0.45 | $0.66 | 46% |
| Above 6 | $0.32 | $0.76 | 33% |
| Above 7 | $0.21 | $0.88 | 20% |
| Above 8 | $0.15 | $0.90 | 10% |
Market Discussion
Pre-season forecasts for the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season were generally high, with NOAA projecting 5-9 major hurricanes, AccuWeather 4-8, and Climate Impact Company 9 major hurricanes [^][^][^][^]. As of September 3, 2026, two major hurricanes, Genevieve and Karina, had formed in the Eastern Pacific [^], with the total increasing to 3 by September 10, 2026 [^]. Prediction market participants have been highly active, showing notable volatility in odds as the season has progressed [^][^].
5. Trust Index
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Above 5PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No trading in 3d
- Factor
- Metric
- —
Above 4Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality72Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality72Confirmed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 100
Above 6Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality37Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality37Mixed
- Factor
- Factor
- flow_agreement
- 0.85
- move_retained_pct
- 38
Above 7Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No trading in 3d
- Factor
- Metric
- —
Above 8Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No trading in 3d
- Factor
- Metric
- —
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.14 · computed Sep 10, 2026
6. How will the projected strength of El Niño through November 2026 influence the formation of additional major hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific?
| El Ni o Continuation Probability | Greater than 90% chance through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-2027 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Major Hurricanes (Eastern Pacific, as of Sep 3, 2026) | 3 (Genevieve, Karina, Lowell) [^] |
| Kalshi Resolution Date | December 1, 2026 [^] |
Strong El Niño conditions foster increased Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. The projected strength of El Niño through November 2026 is expected to enhance the formation of additional major hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific, as these conditions typically lead to increased tropical cyclone activity [^][^][^][^]. As of early September 2026, a very strong El Niño is present and strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-2027 [^][^][^]. Historically, El Niño conditions are linked to substantial increases in tropical storm and hurricane activity in the eastern and central Pacific, primarily by reducing vertical wind shear and increasing atmospheric instability [^][^][^][^].
The current Eastern Pacific hurricane season is notably active. As of early September 2026, the Eastern and Central Pacific hurricane season has recorded 15 named storms and multiple major hurricanes [^][^]. Specifically, by September 3, 2026, the Eastern Pacific had already recorded three major hurricanes: Genevieve, Karina, and Lowell [^]. A prediction market for the total number of major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) occurring between May 15 and December 1, 2026, will resolve on December 1, 2026 [^].
7. How accurate were NOAA's and AccuWeather's pre-season forecasts for Eastern Pacific major hurricanes during previous strong El Niño years?
| NOAA 2026 Major Hurricane Outlook | 5–9 major hurricanes [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Major Hurricanes (as of Sep 2) | 3 major hurricanes [^] |
| El Niño Impact on EP Hurricanes | Enhanced activity, historically higher mean counts [^][^][^] |
Information on past El Niño Eastern Pacific major hurricane forecasts is unavailable. The available research does not contain details regarding the accuracy of NOAA's or AccuWeather's pre-season forecasts for Eastern Pacific major hurricanes during previous strong El Niño years. Furthermore, the provided facts do not include any pre-season forecasts from AccuWeather for the Eastern Pacific basin, neither for previous strong El Niño years nor for the 2026 season.
Current 2026 forecasts do not address previous strong El Niño years. While NOAA's 2026 pre-season outlook for the Eastern Pacific basin predicted an above-normal season, including 5–9 major hurricanes [^], and the 2026 Eastern Pacific season is ongoing with 3 major hurricanes recorded as of September 2, 2026 [^], these details pertain to the current year, not previous strong El Niño years. During El Niño conditions, the Eastern Pacific typically experiences enhanced hurricane activity, with historically higher mean counts of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes compared to La Niña or neutral years [^][^][^]. However, the provided information does not include specific NOAA or AccuWeather forecasts for past El Niño seasons or any assessment of their accuracy.
8. How does the development pace of the 2026 Eastern Pacific season compare to the historically strong El Niño seasons of 1997 and 2015?
| El Niño Probability | 96% (NOAA May 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Major Hurricanes (as of Sep 3) | 2 (Eastern Pacific) [^] |
| Prediction Market Odds (2026) | 99% for >8 major hurricanes [^] |
The 2026 Eastern Pacific season began with a notable 'running start'. This reflects trends observed during historically strong El Niño years, such as 1997 and 2015, and is occurring amidst a declared El Niño [^][^]. NOAA's May 2026 outlook indicated a 96% probability of these El Niño conditions persisting through the peak months, a likelihood comparable to the famously strong El Niño of 1997 [^].
The 2026 season's activity has consistently outpaced historical norms. As of September 3, 2026, the Eastern Pacific season had already recorded 13 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 84.4, which was 25% above the 1991-2020 normal for that date [^]. By September 8, 2026, the combined Eastern and Central North Pacific basins tallied 15 named storms and 6 hurricanes, generally aligning with or slightly exceeding the typical seasonal pace [^][^].
Forecasts and market confidence suggest a highly active 2026 season. In comparison to the current pace, the historically strong El Niño season of 1997 concluded with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes, and an overall ACE of 159.5 [^][^][^]. NOAA's seasonal outlook for the 2026 Eastern Pacific had predicted 15-22 named storms, 9-14 hurricanes, and 5-9 major hurricanes [^][^]. Furthermore, prediction markets on the Kalshi platform in August 2026 demonstrated high confidence, with odds favoring "Above 8" major hurricanes at 99% [^].
9. Which real-time sea surface temperature (SST) and wind shear datasets are most critical for tracking late-season hurricane development?
| Critical Real-time SST Products | Satellite-based products like GHRSST, weekly and daily Reynolds SST (RSST/DSST) [^] |
|---|---|
| Critical Real-time VWS Tools | SHIPS, microwave sounders, models like CFSv2, and statistical models including LGEM [^] |
| Region of Focus for Datasets | Eastern Pacific [^] |
Satellite-based sea surface temperature products are crucial for tracking hurricanes. For real-time monitoring of hurricane development, satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) products like GHRSST are essential [^]. In the Eastern Pacific, specific real-time SST analyses, including weekly and daily Reynolds SST (RSST/DSST), are vital for observing hurricane development and intensity [^].
Vertical wind shear analysis tools are essential for monitoring hurricane intensity. Critical real-time vertical wind shear (VWS) analysis tools include SHIPS and microwave sounders [^]. In the Eastern Pacific, vertical wind shear data derived from models such as the CFSv2 and statistical models including SHIPS and LGEM are crucial for tracking hurricane development and intensity [^].
10. Beyond El Niño, what role could the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) play in suppressing or enhancing hurricane activity through November 2026?
| MJO Propagation Forecast | May propagate into Western Hemisphere, potentially supporting hurricane development (as of September 7, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Major Hurricane Probability | 99% probability of more than 8 major (Category 3+) Eastern Pacific hurricanes for 2026 season (as of late August 2026) [^][^][^] |
| 2026 Eastern Pacific Major Hurricanes Recorded | Two (Genevieve and Karina) as of September 3, 2026 [^][^] |
The Madden-Julian Oscillation significantly influences Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. It either suppresses or enhances local atmospheric conditions crucial for hurricane formation. The convectively active phase of the MJO, marked by increased low-level moisture, westerly wind anomalies, and upper-level divergence, promotes cyclogenesis, while its suppressed phase inhibits it [^][^][^]. This influence is notably modulated by the background climate state, such as the presence of a strong El Niño [^].
Forecasts suggest MJO activity could support Eastern Pacific hurricane development. As of September 7, 2026, forecast models indicate that Madden-Julian Oscillation activity may extend into the Western Hemisphere, potentially aiding hurricane development in the Eastern Pacific. This potential, however, is often tempered by existing background conditions, such as an El Niño [^].
Prediction markets indicate a high probability for increased major hurricane activity. Prediction markets on Kalshi have shown an extremely high probability, 99% as of late August 2026, for more than 8 major (Category 3+) hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific during the 2026 season [^][^][^]. As of September 3, 2026, the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season has recorded two major hurricanes: Genevieve and Karina [^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which spans from May 15 through November 30 with peak activity typically occurring during July, August, and September, has produced 13 named storms and 4 hurricanes as of early September 2026 [^] [^] [^] . This count includes 2 major hurricanes, Genevieve and Karina [^][^]. NOAA's pre-season forecast for the 2026 season anticipated 5–9 major hurricanes [^][^][^]. The current major hurricane count of 2 is below the typical average of 4 major hurricanes for an Eastern Pacific season, based on the 1991-2020 climate period [^][^][^].
Prediction markets in August 2026 exhibited bullish sentiment for the 2026 Eastern Pacific season, with significant repricing towards extreme storm activity [^] . This repricing was driven by a strengthening El Niño, despite mid-season performance tracking below initial aggressive forecasts for major storm counts [^][^]. The ongoing season's development through November 30 and the continued influence of El Niño remain key factors for market probability [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 08, 2026
- Closes: December 01, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which spans from May 15 through November 30 with peak activity typically occurring during July, August, and September, has produced 13 named storms and 4 hurricanes as of early September 2026 [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: This count includes 2 major hurricanes, Genevieve and Karina [^] [^] .
- Trigger: NOAA's pre-season forecast for the 2026 season anticipated 5–9 major hurricanes [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: The current major hurricane count of 2 is below the typical average of 4 major hurricanes for an Eastern Pacific season, based on the 1991-2020 climate period [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
