How many Eastern Pacific named storms will there be this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect Above 16 Eastern Pacific named storms, with a strengthening El Niño and an above-average season pace as of August 20, 2026, strongly favoring this outcome.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market, which resolves based on the total number of named storms in the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, has seen a significant downward revision in expectations. The contract tracking an "Above 18" storm count opened at a 69.0% probability and has since fallen to 50.0%. The primary price action was a single, sharp drop of 19.0 percentage points on August 7, 2026. This repricing likely reflects the season's activity level falling short of initial forecasts. NOAA's pre-season outlook called for 15-22 named storms, but as of August 20, only 8 had been recorded.
The price has established a new support level at 50.0%, where it has remained since the early August drop. The prior 69.0% level represents the market's initial, more bullish sentiment that has since been abandoned. The chart suggests a decisive shift from a belief in a high-probability active season to pricing the outcome as a 50/50 proposition.
Notably, the total traded volume for this contract is zero. The price movements reflect adjustments in bid and ask prices from market makers rather than a consensus formed through executed trades. This lack of volume indicates that while sentiment has clearly shifted, there is no demonstrated market conviction behind the current 50.0% price level. The price action is purely sentiment-driven, based on available public data versus actual capital being put to work.
- Above 18 named storms is favored by a strengthening El Niño.
- Current storm pace exceeds average as of August 20, 2026.
- Historic El Niño persistence strongly favors storm counts above 24.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 18 | 50.0% | 90.0% | The season is ahead of its average pace, and a strengthening El Niño favors above-normal activity. |
| Above 19 | 53.0% | 85.0% | The season is ahead of its average pace, and a strengthening El Niño favors above-normal activity. |
| Above 20 | 30.0% | 80.0% | The season is ahead of its average pace, and a strengthening El Niño favors above-normal activity. |
| Above 16 | 88.0% | 98.0% | The season is ahead of its average pace, and a strengthening El Niño favors above-normal activity. |
| Above 17 | 87.0% | 95.0% | The season is ahead of its average pace, and a strengthening El Niño favors above-normal activity. |
Current Context
Eastern Pacific hurricane activity remains below seasonal forecasts to date. As of August 20, 2026, the Eastern Pacific has recorded 8 named storms [1][2][3]. This number falls short of pre-season projections for an active season. NOAA forecast 15-22 named storms for the 2026 season [4][5][6], while AccuWeather anticipated 17-22 named storms [7][8].
Active season predictions stem from anticipated El Niño conditions. Forecasters predicated these active outlooks on the expected presence of El Niño conditions throughout the season [4][7][8][5][6]. NOAA's 2026 outlook specifically noted that El Niño typically correlates with increased Eastern Pacific storm activity, historically averaging 13-18 named storms per season [5][6].
Sources (8)
- 12026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 22026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 32026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 4Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Begins - AMS Headlinesheadlines.ametsoc.org
- 5NOAA 2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 6Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 7Elevated Risk of Tropical Impacts for Hawaii, Southern California and Mexico This Pacific Hurricane Seasonaccuweather.com
- 8El Nino to fuel Pacific hurricane season, increase risks for California, Hawaii, Mexicoaccuweather.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 26
📈 August 19, 2026: 81.0pp spike
Price increased from 8.0% to 89.0%
What happened: The provided web research does not identify a primary driver for the 81.0 percentage point spike in the prediction market for "Above 26 Eastern Pacific named storms" on August 19, 2026. Official forecasts from NOAA predict 15-22 named storms, with private organizations like AccuWeather and Climate Impact Company also forecasting ranges well below 26 named storms for the 2026 season [1][2][3][4]. As of August 19-20, 2026, only 8 named storms had formed in the Eastern Pacific basin [5][6]. No social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors supporting such an extreme forecast or market movement are evident in the provided sources. Therefore, social media activity appears to be irrelevant, as no related content was found.
Outcome: Above 22
📉 August 12, 2026: 16.0pp drop
Price decreased from 31.0% to 15.0%
What happened: The 16.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 22" outcome on August 12, 2026, appears to be primarily driven by a market reassessment of the actual storm formation rate compared to the high threshold of the outcome. While initial forecasts predicted 15-22 named storms [7][2], only 8 named storms had formed in the Eastern Pacific basin by August 20, 2026 [8][5][6]. This slow pace, despite being slightly above the historical average for that date [8][5][6], likely reduced confidence that the total number of storms would exceed 22 by the end of the season. Based on the provided sources, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver.
Outcome: Above 18
📉 August 07, 2026: 19.0pp drop
Price decreased from 69.0% to 50.0%
What happened: The 19.0 percentage point drop for the "Above 18" outcome on August 07, 2026, likely stemmed from market participants adjusting expectations for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Although NOAA and AccuWeather had projected 15-22 named storms overall for the season, with El Niño conditions expected to increase activity [1][5][7][2][9][10], the observed pace of storm development by early August appeared to be slower than anticipated. Given that only 8 named storms had formed by August 19-20 [1][5][6][8], this suggests a deceleration that likely led to reduced confidence in exceeding 18 total named storms. Social media was irrelevant to this price movement, as no pertinent activity was identified in the provided information.
Sources (10)
- 1NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic...noaa.gov
- 2Elevated Risk of Tropical Impacts for Hawaii, Southern California and Mexico This Pacific Hurricane Seasonaccuweather.com
- 3East Pacific 2026 Hurricane Outlook: 13 Hurricanes Forecast in 2026! - Climate Impact Companyclimateimpactcompany.com
- 4Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 52026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 62026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 7Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Begins - AMS Headlinesheadlines.ametsoc.org
- 82026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 9NOAA 2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 10Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For this prediction market, a "Yes" resolution for a contract (e.g., "Above N") occurs if the total number of Eastern Pacific named storms this year is greater than the specified threshold N. A "No" resolution occurs if the number of named storms is less than or equal to N. All contracts related to this market are expected to resolve by December 1, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 26 | $0.12 | $0.98 | 89% |
| Above 16 | $0.92 | $0.12 | 88% |
| Above 17 | $0.84 | $0.23 | 87% |
| Above 24 | $0.16 | $0.97 | 86% |
| Above 19 | $0.53 | $0.63 | 53% |
| Above 18 | $0.66 | $0.50 | 50% |
| Above 22 | $0.28 | $0.90 | 37% |
| Above 20 | $0.39 | $0.75 | 30% |
Market Discussion
As of August 20, 2026, the Eastern Pacific basin has seen 8 named storms during the 2026 season [1][2][3]. Forecasters like NOAA and AccuWeather predicted an active season of 15–22 and 17–22 named storms respectively, largely due to expected El Niño conditions [4][5][6][7][8]. Prediction market participants show uncertainty about exceeding 18-20 named storms as of mid-August 2026, a sentiment echoed by some social media discussions that express skepticism towards seasonal outlooks and debate climate pattern impacts [9][10][11][12].
Sources (12)
- 12026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 22026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 32026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 4Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 5Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Begins - AMS Headlinesheadlines.ametsoc.org
- 62026 Pacific hurricane seasonen.wikipedia.org
- 7Elevated Risk of Tropical Impacts for Hawaii, Southern California and Mexico This Pacific Hurricane Seasonaccuweather.com
- 8Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 9Eastern Pacific Named Storms Over 26 Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 10Weather Prediction Markets — Temperature & Hurricane Oddspredictionmarketspicks.com
- 11NOAA released its outlook for the 2026 eastern Pacific...facebook.com
- 122026 Hurricane Season (General Thread - Atlantic, East/Central Pacific (average, day, storm) - Hurricanes - - City-Data Forumcity-data.com
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score42High Risk
Trust score75Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. How do the 2026 Eastern Pacific season forecasts from NOAA and AccuWeather compare in methodology and historical accuracy?
| NOAA 2026 Named Storms Forecast | 15-22 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| AccuWeather 2026 Named Storms Forecast | 17-22 [3][4][5] |
| NOAA 2026 Above-Normal Season Probability | 70% [1][2] |
Both NOAA and AccuWeather anticipate an active 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. NOAA forecasted an above-normal season with a 70% probability, predicting 15-22 named storms, 9-14 hurricanes, and 5-9 major hurricanes [1][2]. AccuWeather similarly projected an active season, anticipating 17-22 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes, and 4-8 major hurricanes [3][4][5]. Both organizations based their 2026 forecasts on the influence of a developing El Niño, which typically leads to reduced vertical wind shear and increased sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, promoting more active conditions [6][2][3][4].
Methodological comparisons highlight significant differences in forecasting practices and transparency. AccuWeather, citing private studies such as the Kantar report on the 2024 hurricane season, claims higher accuracy compared to NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC) [7]. However, these claims face challenges from critics and the broader meteorological community [7][8]. NOAA's NHC maintains transparent, rigorous, and open-source verification protocols for its official forecasts, a practice often not matched by private firms [7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1NOAA Forecasts a Below-Average Hurricane Season - Eoseos.org
- 22026 NOAA hurricane season forecast shaped by El Niño impactsadmeter.usatoday.com
- 3Elevated Risk of Tropical Impacts for Hawaii, Southern California and Mexico This Pacific Hurricane Seasonaccuweather.com
- 4El Nino to fuel Pacific hurricane season, increase risks for...accuweather.com
- 5El Nino to fuel Pacific hurricane season, increase risks for California, Hawaii, Mexico - UPI.comupi.com
- 6NOAA now expects as many as 14 hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific this year – Morning Overviewmorningoverview.com
- 7Evaluation and comparison of the accuracy of 2024 hurricane forecasts AccuWeather vs. The National Hurricane Center (NHC)accuweather.com
- 8Is AccuWeather more accurate than NHC? Critics call study unscientificcourierpostonline.com
7. Beyond ENSO, what role are other climate signals like the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) expected to play in the final months of the 2026 season?
| 2026 Eastern Pacific Named Storms Forecast | 15-22 [1] |
|---|---|
| Named Storms (as of Aug 20, 2026) | 8 [2][3][4] |
| Tropical Cyclone Formation Expectation | Through early September 2026 [5][6] |
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and strong El Niño will boost Eastern Pacific activity. The MJO is expected to interact with a strong El Niño during the latter part of the 2026 season, influencing activity in the Eastern Pacific. NOAA forecasts indicate that these combined climatic factors will likely lead to an active East Pacific, with several tropical cyclone formations anticipated through the beginning of September 2026 [5][6].
Current conditions already favor increased Eastern Pacific tropical activity. As of August 20, 2026, the MJO is contributing to an environment conducive to tropical cyclone genesis in the Eastern Pacific, working alongside existing strong El Niño conditions [6][5]. NOAA's official seasonal forecast for the 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season projects an above-average season, with an expectation of 15 to 22 named storms. To date, through August 20, 2026, the Eastern Pacific basin has observed 8 named storms [1][2][3][4].
Sources (6)
- 1NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic...noaa.gov
- 22026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 32026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 42026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 5Climate Prediction Center - Global Tropical Hazards Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 6Global Tropical Hazards Outlook - Climate Prediction Centercpc.ncep.noaa.gov
8. How does the current pace of storm formation as of August 2026 compare to historical averages for past high-activity El Niño years?
| Named storms (2026 season as of Aug 20) | 8 (one more than 1991-2020 average) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| El Niño persistence chance (through winter 2026-27) | Greater than 90% [4][5][6] |
| NOAA's predicted named storms (2026 season) | 15-22 [2][7][8] |
Eastern Pacific storm formation currently exceeds the seasonal average due to El Niño. As of August 20, 2026, the Eastern Pacific has recorded 8 named storms, which is one more than the 1991-2020 seasonal average for this time of year [1][2][3]. The 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is characterized by a very strong El Niño event, projected with a greater than 90% chance of persisting through winter 2026-27 [4][5][6]. However, specific historical average storm formation rates for past high-activity El Niño years as of August are not available for a direct comparison against the current pace.
Strong El Niño increases Eastern Pacific storm activity, prompting higher season forecasts. Historically, very strong (Super) El Niño events correlate with elevated storm activity in the Eastern Pacific, typically leading to 13-18 named storms for a full season [4][9][7][8]. Reflecting these expectations for above-normal activity driven by current El Niño conditions, NOAA's official outlook for the 2026 Eastern Pacific season predicts a range of 15-22 named storms, 9-14 hurricanes, and 5-9 major hurricanes [2][7][8].
Sources (9)
- 12026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 22026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 32026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 4Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 5Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - NOAAcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 6Official NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilitiescpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 7NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic...noaa.gov
- 8A Look Ahead to Hurricane Season 2026amwins.com
- 9Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
9. What do recent sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly charts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicate for storm potential through the rest of the 2026 season?
| El Niño SST Anomaly | Exceeding +2.0°C in equatorial Pacific (NOAA CPC) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Eastern Pacific Season Outlook | Above-normal (NOAA CPC) [3][4] |
| Predicted Named Storms (2026) | 15-22 (NOAA CPC) [5][6][3][4] |
El Niño is strengthening, expected to become very strong by winter. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) confirmed a strengthening El Niño by August 20, 2026, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific exceeding +2.0°C [1][2]. These SST anomalies were observed increasing across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific in June 2026 [7]. There is a greater than 90% chance that this El Niño event will develop into a very strong event through the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27 [1][2].
An above-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season is anticipated. Consequently, the CPC projects an above-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season for 2026, an outlook that remains unchanged as of its mid-August updates [5][6][3][4]. The CPC indicates a 70% probability for an above-normal season, 20% for near-normal, and 10% for below-normal [3][4]. The official 2026 outlook predicts 15-22 named storms, 9-14 hurricanes, and 5-9 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-190% of the median [3][4].
Sources (11)
- 1Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - NOAAcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 2ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionscpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 3NOAA 2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 4Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 5NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic...noaa.gov
- 6Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Begins - AMS Headlinesheadlines.ametsoc.org
- 7Climate Prediction Center - Outlookscpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 8Elevated Risk of Tropical Impacts for Hawaii, Southern California and Mexico This Pacific Hurricane Seasonaccuweather.com
- 9East Pacific 2026 Hurricane Outlook: 13 Hurricanes Forecast in 2026! - Climate Impact Companyclimateimpactcompany.com
- 102026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 112026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
10. What changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions through October 2026 could significantly alter the final storm count?
| El Niño persistence probability | Greater than 90% (through fall/winter 2026-2027) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Chance of historic El Niño levels | 69% (exceeding 1950 levels) [3] |
| Forecasted 2026 Eastern Pacific named storms | 17-22 named storms [5][6][7] |
A very strong El Niño is expected to persist through late 2026. As of August 20, 2026, a powerful El Niño event is actively strengthening, with over a 90% chance of continuing through the fall and winter of 2026-2027 [1][2][3][4]. This event carries a 69% probability of reaching historic intensity, potentially surpassing all recorded levels since 1950 [3]. El Niño is projected to be the primary climate driver through the end of 2026 [1][2][4].
Strong El Niño conditions historically increase Eastern Pacific hurricane activity. These conditions are linked to factors such as reduced vertical wind shear and higher ocean heat content, typically resulting in an average of 13–18 named storms during such years [5][6][7][8][9]. Forecasts for the 2026 season indicate above-normal activity, with predictions ranging from 17 to 22 named storms [5][6][7]. A May 2026 seasonal outlook specifically projected 22 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 9 intense hurricanes for the Eastern Pacific basin [6]. As of August 20, 2026, eight named storms had already been recorded in the Eastern Pacific basin for the season [10][11][12].
El Niño introduces intrabasin variability, with no other significant changes expected. While overall Eastern Pacific activity generally increases, El Niño can lead to enhanced activity in the western part of the basin, but suppressed activity in the eastern nearshore area due to intensified Central American Gap Winds [13][14]. The research does not identify other changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions through October 2026 that could significantly alter the final storm count from projections based on the current strong and strengthening El Niño conditions.
Sources (14)
- 1Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - NOAAcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 2ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionscpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 3ENSO Forecastiri.columbia.edu
- 4Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussioncpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 5Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 6East Pacific 2026 Hurricane Outlook: 13 Hurricanes Forecast in 2026! - Climate Impact Companyclimateimpactcompany.com
- 7El Nino to fuel Pacific hurricane season, increase risks for California, Hawaii, Mexicoaccuweather.com
- 8NOAA 2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 9Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 102026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 112026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 122026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 13Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Windsrepository.library.noaa.gov
- 14Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Windsnature.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts for Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season
In El Ni
ño years, the Eastern Pacific typically averages 13-18 named storms [8][9]. As of August 20, 2026, there have been 8 named storms in the Eastern Pacific basin during the current season [10][11][12], which officially runs from May 15 through November 30 [2]. Prediction markets on Kalshi, as of August 17, 2026, indicated high confidence (88%) that the total number of named storms will exceed 16, with significant, though lower, probability assigned to higher counts (e.g., 30% chance for above 20 named storms) [13].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 08, 2026
- Closes: December 01, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic...noaa.gov
- 2Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Begins - AMS Headlinesheadlines.ametsoc.org
- 3Elevated Risk of Tropical Impacts for Hawaii, Southern California and Mexico This Pacific Hurricane Seasonaccuweather.com
- 4Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 5Inigo Insurance | Catastrophe Researchinigoinsurance.com
- 62026 tropical cyclone season is approaching | Munich Remunichre.com
- 7Super El Niño is already affecting hurricane season....weather.com
- 8NOAA 2026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 9Climate Prediction Center - Expert Assessments: East Pacific Hurricane Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 102026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 112026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 122026 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 13Eastern Pacific Named Storms Over 26 Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
