Hurricanes Markets

Active Markets (11)

Hurricane Rachel category? Kalshi

Category 4 or above

Market Model 1.0% 21.1%

Category 3 or above

Market Model 99.0% 99.9%

18.8K contracts Refresh

How many Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? Kalshi

Above 12

Market Model 41.0% 18.5%

Above 9

Market Model 64.0% 49.4%

6.6K contracts Refresh

How many Central Pacific named storms will there be this year? Kalshi

Above 4

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

Above 5

Market Model 93.0% 100.0%

10.7K contracts Refresh

Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 4.7%

1.6K contracts Refresh

When will the next Category 5 hurricane form? Kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Market Model 94.0% 70.7%

Before Dec 1, 2026

Market Model 13.0% 70.7%

6.9K contracts Refresh

Hurricane Odalys category? Kalshi

Category 3 or above

Market Model 98.0% 100.0%

Category 2 or above

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

10.9K contracts Refresh

Hurricane Polo category? Kalshi

Category 5 or above

Market Model 99.0% 99.8%

Category 3 or above

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

5.0K contracts Refresh

How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? Kalshi

Above 6

Market Model 33.0% 32.3%

Above 4

Market Model 54.0% 57.2%

2.8K contracts Refresh

How many Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? Kalshi

Above 4

Market Model 74.0% 78.7%

Above 2

Market Model 82.0% 85.0%

3.6K contracts Refresh

How many Eastern Pacific named storms will there be this year? Kalshi

Above 18

Market Model 50.0% 90.0%

Above 19

Market Model 53.0% 85.0%

2.2K contracts Refresh

Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026? Kalshi

Above 18

Market Model 10.0% 5.0%

Above 16

Market Model 32.0% 16.9%

26.3K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Hurricane Rachel category? Top outcome: Category 4 or above	1.0%	21.1%	High	85	Refresh
How many Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? Top outcome: Above 12	41.0%	18.5%	High	72	Refresh
How many Central Pacific named storms will there be this year? Top outcome: Above 4	99.0%	100.0%	High	75	Refresh
Will a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina this year? Yes refers to: 2026	9.0%	4.7%	Med	76	Refresh
When will the next Category 5 hurricane form? Top outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026	94.0%	70.7%	High	74	Refresh
Hurricane Odalys category? Top outcome: Category 3 or above	98.0%	100.0%	High	89	Refresh
Hurricane Polo category? Top outcome: Category 5 or above	99.0%	99.8%	High	—	Refresh
How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? Top outcome: Above 6	33.0%	32.3%	High	73	Refresh
How many Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? Top outcome: Above 4	74.0%	78.7%	High	77	Refresh
How many Eastern Pacific named storms will there be this year? Top outcome: Above 18	50.0%	90.0%	High	75	Refresh
Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026? Top outcome: Above 18	10.0%	5.0%	High	78	Refresh

Expired Markets (2)

Hurricane Norbert category? Kalshi

Category 1 or above

Market Model 7.0% 2.4%

Category 2 or above

Market Model 5.0% 1.7%

7.1K contracts

Hurricane Lowell category? Kalshi

Category 1 or above

Market Model 99.0% 100.0%

Category 5 or above

Market Model 97.0% 100.0%

18.7K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Hurricane Norbert category? Top outcome: Category 1 or above	7.0%	2.4%	High	—
Hurricane Lowell category? Top outcome: Category 1 or above	99.0%	100.0%	High	—

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