Natural disasters Markets

Active Markets (2)

Major volcano eruption in 2026? Kalshi

At least 3

Market Model 9.0% 5.2%

At least 1

Market Model 82.0% 67.4%

16.9K contracts Refresh

Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026? Kalshi

Above 18

Market Model 10.0% 5.0%

Above 16

Market Model 32.0% 16.9%

26.3K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Major volcano eruption in 2026? Top outcome: At least 3	9.0%	5.2%	High	69	Refresh
Number of tropical storms in the Atlantic in 2026? Top outcome: Above 18	10.0%	5.0%	High	76	Refresh

Expired Markets (1)

Number of tornadoes in May 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.5K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Number of tornadoes in May 2026?	—	—	High	—