Yes
Market Model 30.2% 22.1%
Climate change Markets
Active Markets (4)
US meets its climate goals? Kalshi
By 2025
Market Model 4.8% 15.8%
By 2030
Market Model 16.0% 15.8%
Yes
Market Model 81.0% 88.2%
Yes
Market Model 42.0% 32.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the hottest year ever? Yes refers to: Hottest | 30.2% | 22.1% | Med | 85 | Refresh |
| US meets its climate goals? Top outcome: By 2025 | 4.8% | 15.8% | High | 69 | Refresh |
| Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? Yes refers to: Before 2050 | 81.0% | 88.2% | Med | 82 | Refresh |
| EU meets its 2030 climate goals? Yes refers to: By 2030 | 42.0% | 32.7% | Med | 77 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | — |
