Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
Yes refers to: Before 2050
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the world to pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market has demonstrated a stable, sideways trading pattern since its inception, consistently indicating a high probability for the "YES" outcome. The price has remained confined within a relatively narrow 9-point range, fluctuating between a support level around 74.0% and a resistance level at 83.0%. The market opened at a high probability of 77.0% and is currently trading near its peak at 81.0%. The absence of any major price spikes or drops is significant; it suggests that the provided context, which points to a strong expert consensus that the 2°C warming threshold will be breached, was largely priced in from the beginning. Subsequent scientific reports and analyses have reinforced this initial sentiment rather than introduced new, market-moving information.
The trading volume of 1,121 contracts across 177 data points suggests moderate but not frantic activity. The existence of days with zero volume, as seen in the sample data, indicates periods of strong consensus where few traders are willing to bet against the prevailing odds. This low volatility, coupled with the consistently high price, points to a strong and unwavering market conviction. The chart suggests that traders are confident that global warming will surpass the 2°C mark before 2050, aligning directly with the pessimistic outlooks from recent climate studies and expert commentary. The market sentiment is firmly bullish on a "YES" resolution and appears to be waiting for a major, unexpected development in climate trends or policy to shift from its current high-probability equilibrium.
- Recent atmospheric and oceanic data confirms accelerating global warming.
- James Hansen's team projects 2°C warming significantly earlier than IPCC.
- Deep, rapid, and sustained emissions reductions are needed by 2035.
- National emissions pledges currently show a significant shortfall to limit warming.
- Rapid reduction of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants by 2030 is critical.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2050 | 81.0% | 88.2% | Global greenhouse gas emissions continue to drive warming trends, making the 2-degree threshold likely. |
Current Context
Expert consensus indicates 1.5°C is likely out of reach. While the 2015 Paris Agreement aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C, many scientists now consider the more ambitious 1.5°C target "almost certainly out of reach" [1][2]. A December 2024 study published in Geophysical Research Letters indicated a 50% chance that global warming will breach 2°C even if current net-zero emission goals for the 2050s are met, also suggesting a greater than 99% chance that long-term warming will exceed 1.5°C [1]. Climate scientist James Hansen co-authored a November 2023 paper asserting that without extreme global action, temperatures will reach 2°C above pre-industrial levels before 2050, faster than most previous predictions. Hansen notably stated that "The 1.5 limit is deader than a doornail," and the "2-degree limit is also dead, unless we take purposeful actions to reduce Earth's energy imbalance" [2]. Independent climate advisors have already warned the UK government to prepare for weather extremes associated with at least 2°C of global warming by 2050 [3]. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) confirmed 2024 as the hottest year on record, approximately 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, and estimates an 80% chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record [4].
Accelerated warming and inadequate emission reductions exacerbate the challenge. There is growing evidence that global warming may be accelerating, marked by a notable rise in Earth's energy imbalance and unprecedented ocean surface warming and marine heatwaves [5][6]. This acceleration is compounded by strain on carbon sinks, with the global land carbon sink showing a marked drop in 2023, raising concerns about a more permanent increase in atmospheric carbon and a shrinking "remaining carbon budget" [5][6]. To limit warming to 2°C, emissions would need to drop around 35% by 2035; however, current commitments only achieve 12-15% reductions by that date [7][4]. More drastically, to keep warming to 1.5°C, emissions would need to be reduced by nearly 50% from 2019 levels by 2030, and by 55% compared to 2019 levels by 2035 [8][4][9]. The target year for achieving net-zero emissions according to the Paris Agreement is 2050, but current commitments are not on track to meet this goal [9].
Future projections indicate early breaches of the 2°C threshold. Scientists anticipate global average temperatures to consistently hit or exceed 1.5°C during the 2020s [2]. Multiple studies and models predict the 2°C threshold will likely be surpassed before 2050 [2]. Specifically, a survey of over 200 authors from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in October 2024 revealed that 86% of respondents expect warming to exceed 2°C by 2100, with a median estimate of 2.7°C [10]. The IPCC itself projects a global temperature increase of between 2°C and 3°C by 2100, with a median of 2.2°C, based on observed fossil-fuel and industry CO2 emissions growth rates [11]. The resolution of this prediction market depends on at least two of four specified climate agencies (NASA GISS, NCEI, Berkeley Earth, and HadCRUT) reporting that the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above 1850-1900 pre-industrial levels in any calendar year before 2050 [12].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly reaches or exceeds +2.0°C above 1850-1900 pre-industrial levels in any calendar year before January 1, 2050. This threshold must be reported by at least two of the specified source agencies (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NCEI, Berkeley Earth, and UK Met Office Hadley Centre). Otherwise, if the event does not occur, the market resolves to "No" and closes by December 31, 2049, 11:59 PM EST.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2050 | $0.79 | $0.24 | 81% |
Market Discussion
The IPCC AR6 report indicates that global warming exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial levels during 2041–2060 is very likely under high emissions scenarios, and likely or more likely than not under other significant emissions scenarios [1]. A Carbon Brief analysis estimates the 2°C threshold could be surpassed between 2034 and 2052 (median 2043) in the worst-case scenario (SSP5-8.5), and between 2038 and 2072 (median 2052) in a modest mitigation scenario (SSP2-4.5) [2]. These projections suggest a potential crossing of the 2°C mark before 2050 under several plausible emission trajectories, with similar long-term warming questions frequently tracked in other prediction markets [3].
Sources (3)
- 1https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM.pdf?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=topipcc.ch
- 2Analysis: When might the world exceed 1.5C and 2C of global warming? - Carbon Briefcarbonbrief.org
- 3February 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) Trading Odds & Predictions | Polymarketpolymarket.com
4. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score90Strong
Trade quality20% of score48High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score82Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
5. What recent atmospheric and oceanic data from agencies like NOAA and the WMO supports the hypothesis of an accelerating rate of global warming?
| Global Temperature Anomaly (2025) | 1.43°C above 1850–1900 average [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Ocean Warming Rate (2005-2024) | More than twice that of 1960–2005 [3] |
| CO2 Concentration (2024) | 423.9 ± 0.2 ppm [4] |
Recent atmospheric and oceanic data confirms an accelerating global warming rate. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that the period 2015–2025 stands as the hottest 11 years on record, with 2025 approximately 1.43°C above the 1850–1900 average [1][2]. Concurrently, Earth’s energy imbalance reached an unprecedented high in 2025, signaling rapid heat accumulation within the climate system [1][2].
Ocean heat content also demonstrates an accelerating warming trend. The WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2024 indicated ocean heat content reached a record in 2024, with the warming rate from 2005–2024 more than double that observed during 1960–2005 [3]. Further, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reported record high upper ocean heat content in 2025, confirming continued rapid heat storage [5][6]. Notably, the WMO observed that 2024 OHC surpassed the 2023 record by 16 ± 8 ZJ, marking the eighth consecutive year a new OHC record was set [3].
Rapidly increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations underpin accelerating global warming. The WMO’s greenhouse gas bulletin reported CO2 concentrations reached 423.9 ± 0.2 ppm in 2024 [4]. The 3.5 ppm increase from 2023 to 2024 represents the largest one-year jump in the modern record, indicating a strengthening greenhouse effect driving these accelerated warming rates [4].
Sources (6)
- 1State of the Global Climate 2025wmo.int
- 2Earth’s climate swings increasingly out of balancebeta.wmo.int
- 3https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/2025-03/WMO-1368-2024_en.pdfwmo.int
- 4https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/2025-10/GHG-21_en.pdfwmo.int
- 5Assessing the Global Temperature and Precipitation Analysis in 2025 | News | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)ncei.noaa.gov
- 6Climate change: global temperature | NOAA Climate.govclimate.gov
6. How do the climate models and assumptions used by James Hansen's team differ from the IPCC's AR6 report regarding the timeline for reaching 2°C warming?
| Hansen team 2°C warming projection | 2030s [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| IPCC AR6 2°C warming projection (SSP2-4.5) | 2041-2060 [4] |
| IPCC AR6 Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) | 3°C [1][5][6] |
James Hansen's team projects 2°C warming significantly earlier than IPCC. They anticipate the world reaching 2°C warming in the 2030s, a timeframe notably earlier than projected by the IPCC AR6 report. This accelerated warming is attributed to an observed acceleration since 2015, driven by a high climate sensitivity of 4.5°C and aerosol unmasking [1]. Furthermore, Hansen's team suggests that 1.5°C warming has already been reached on average, with the warming rate post-2010 being at least 0.27°C per decade, an increase from 0.18°C prior [1][2][3]. Hansen critiques the IPCC for potentially underestimating changes in aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity, basing his arguments on paleoclimate data and recent observations [1][7][6].
The IPCC AR6 report offers different climate sensitivity and timelines. It provides a best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 3°C for doubled CO2, derived from the CMIP6 GCM ensemble [1][5][6]. The IPCC AR6 projects various warming levels for the 2041-2060 period under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): 1.7°C for SSP1-2.6, 2.0°C for SSP2-4.5, and 2.4°C for SSP5-8.5 [4]. The primary reason for the divergence in projections between Hansen's team and the IPCC AR6 report is their differing assumptions concerning climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing.
Sources (7)
- 1https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/Acceleration.12Feb2025.pdfcolumbia.edu
- 2James Hansen: 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury: r/climatechangereddit.com
- 3https://columbia.edu/~jeh1/Documents/PipelinePaper.2023.07.05.pdfcolumbia.edu
- 4Template:AR6 SSP tableen.wikipedia.org
- 5https://export.arxiv.org/pdf/2212.04474v3.pdfexport.arxiv.org
- 6https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2025/ForestTrees.06August2025.pdfcolumbia.edu
- 7Seeing the Forest for the Trees - by James Hansenjimehansen.substack.com
7. What major policy shifts or technological breakthroughs in carbon capture or renewables would need to occur by 2035 to significantly alter the IPCC's current warming trajectory?
| Renewables Share by 2050 | 52–67% of primary energy [1] |
|---|---|
| Electricity System Transformation | Underway by ~2035 [1] |
| Carbon Capture/CO2 Removal Deployment | Scalable deployment at system-relevant rates by 2035 [2][3] |
To significantly alter the IPCC's current warming trajectory by 2035, deep, rapid, and sustained emissions reductions, alongside transitions to low-carbon energy, are crucial for avoiding exceeding 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels before 2050 [3][4][2][5]. This requires substantial near-term policy implementation, necessitating immediate action after 2020 or a stronger acceleration of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) until 2030 [3][6]. Policy implementation through the early-to-mid 2030s is vital for bending the warming trajectory [3][6].
A fundamental transformation of the electricity system would need to be underway by approximately 2035 to meet these goals [1]. This transformation aims for renewables, including bioenergy, hydro, wind, and solar, to supply 52–67% of primary energy by 2050 [1]. This must be coupled with significant declines in coal usage and widespread electrification, actions essential for achieving near-term emissions reductions consistent with 2 degrees Celsius-compatible scenarios [1][5].
Regarding carbon capture and CO2 removal, the IPCC's AR6 report classifies them as components within a broader mitigation portfolio, rather than a singular "breakthrough requirement," for reaching net-zero CO2/GHG emissions [2][7]. The critical technological achievement by 2035 is not merely incremental pilot success, but the scalable, sustainable deployment of power combined with carbon capture or CO2 removal at system-relevant rates [2][3]. Pathways to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius (>67%) entail reaching net-zero GHG emissions in the latter half of the century, relying on a diverse mitigation portfolio that includes both low-carbon energy transitions and significant contributions from these technologies, rather than delaying action [4][2].
Sources (7)
- 1Global Warming of 1.5 ºC —ipcc.ch
- 2Summary for Policymakersipcc.ch
- 3Figure AR6 WG3ipcc.ch
- 4Figure SPM.5: AR6 Synthesis Reportipcc.ch
- 5Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050? | Climate and Weather Prediction Markets | Solflaresolflare.com
- 6Figure AR6 WG2ipcc.ch
- 7Figure AR6 WG3ipcc.ch
8. What are the most current estimates for the world's remaining carbon budget from sources like the Global Carbon Project, and how has this figure been revised between 2020 and today?
| 1.5C Carbon Budget (50% chance) | 130 GtCO2 (as of January 2025) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 1.5C Carbon Budget (66% chance) | 80 GtCO2 (from 2025) [3] |
| 2C Carbon Budget (Jan 2025) | 1110 GtCO2 [4] |
Current carbon budget estimates vary by warming target and probability of success. As of January 2025, for a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, the estimated remaining carbon budget is approximately 130 billion tonnes of CO2 (GtCO2) [1][2], which, at current emission levels, could be exhausted by around 2028 [4][2]. For a 66% chance of meeting the 1.5°C target, the budget tightens to 80 GtCO2 from 2025, potentially exhausted within two years [3], and for an 83% chance, only 30 GtCO2 remains, projected to be exhausted by 2025 [2]. In contrast, the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 2°C is estimated at 1110 GtCO2 as of January 2025 [4], which could last approximately 27 years from 2024 at current emission levels [4][3][5]. Global total anthropogenic CO2 emissions were projected to be around 41.6 GtCO2 in 2024 [6][5].
Carbon budget estimates have significantly decreased, especially for the 1.5°C target. Between early 2020 and early 2025, estimates were revised downwards, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) having estimated the remaining budget for a 66% chance of staying within 1.5°C at 400 GtCO2 in early 2020 [7][8][9]. This indicates an approximate 80% reduction to 80 GtCO2 by 2025 [7][3]. Although global fossil fuel emissions experienced a temporary 7% decline in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic [10][11][12][13], emissions have since rebounded to record highs in 2024 [5]. Experts note that the rapid warming observed recently aligns with high greenhouse gas emissions [1]. The rapid depletion of the carbon budget underscores the urgent need for deep and sustained CO2 emission reductions to meet the Paris Agreement goals [4][3], requiring annual reductions similar to those seen during the pandemic to approach the 1.7°C target [4].
Sources (13)
9. According to the UNEP's Emissions Gap Report, what is the specific shortfall between current national emissions pledges and the pathway required to limit warming to 2°C?
| Additional emissions cuts for 2C pathway | 14 GtCO2e in 2030 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Projected temp rise (unconditional NDCs) | 2.9°C by century-end [3][4][2] |
| 2030 emissions cut from 2019 for 2C | 25% [5] |
Achieving 2°C warming limit requires significant additional emissions cuts. The UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2023 highlights a specific shortfall of 14 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent (GtCO2e) in additional emissions reductions necessary by 2030 to align with the 2°C pathway. This required reduction could decrease by 3 GtCO2e if conditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented [1][2]. To achieve the 2°C target with a 66% probability, greenhouse gas emissions predicted for 2030 must be cut by 28% compared to current levels [3][1][2]. Overall, aligning with a 2°C pathway necessitates a 25% reduction in emissions from 2019 levels by 2030 [5].
Current national climate pledges fall short, leading to higher global warming. Under current unconditional NDCs, the world is projected to experience an estimated 2.9°C temperature rise by the end of the century. This projection improves slightly to 2.5°C if all conditional NDCs are fully implemented [3][4][2]. More recent data from the UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2025 indicates that even updated pledges would still lead to a global warming of 2.3-2.5°C this century [6][5]. Furthermore, if NDCs are not strengthened by 2035, the gap for keeping warming below 2°C could expand to 18 GtCO2e [7].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key catalysts that could change market probability toward achieving climate goals include rapid decarbonization and policy implementation through multi-dimensional and multi-sectoral changes, including rapid reductions of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 [1]. This also encompasses widespread deployment of mature renewable energy technologies such as solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, batteries, and electric vehicles [1]. The development and scaling of carbon removal technologies, which some experts believe could remove up to five gigatons of CO2 annually by 2050, also play a role [2][3]. Furthermore, economic incentives, market-based instruments to incentivize emission reductions, and significant investment in green energy and climate solutions, buoyed by falling costs, are crucial [1][4]. Strengthening international agreements by building upon the Paris Agreement with more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and "sister agreements" like the Montreal Protocol's Kigali Amendment could also contribute [1].
Conversely, several factors present significant risks, potentially accelerating warming beyond targets. A 2023 study asserted that global temperatures would reach 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels before 2050 without extreme action, which is faster than many previous predictions [5]. The UN Environment Programme reported in 2022 that countries have not met their climate goals, leading to a predicted temperature increase between 2.1 and 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100, exceeding the 2-degree target [6]. The IPCC warned in 2021 that without immediate, rapid, and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, limiting warming to either 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius will be beyond reach [7]. Current global mitigation efforts are not yet sufficient, and greenhouse gas levels continue to accumulate in the atmosphere at high rates [8]. Projected global greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise significantly by 2050 if current trends persist [9].
Further indications of challenging prospects include a 2024 study suggesting a 50% chance that global warming will breach 2 degrees Celsius, even if humanity achieves net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the 2050s [10]. A survey of over 200 IPCC report authors revealed that 86% expect warming to exceed 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 under current policies, with a median estimate of 2.7 degrees Celsius [2]. The possibility of underestimated climate sensitivity, whether from faulty assumptions or reductions in aerosol pollutants allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface, could also accelerate warming [5]. The potential for large-scale environmental tipping points and feedback loops, such as the collapse of ice sheets, thawing permafrost releasing methane, or the Amazon rainforest transforming into a savannah, could significantly accelerate warming [9]. Lastly, a bear market or economic downturn could potentially slow investments in climate technology and initiatives [11].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2050
- Closes: January 01, 2050
