Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin?
Short Answer
The Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment is not expected to pass in Wisconsin, with the market pricing its approval at 3.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The provided context does not contain information that explains the sharp decline in this market's implied probability from 86% to 3%. The price drop between October 25 and October 30 is contrary to external reporting cited for the same period.
The market's opening price of 86% was consistent with pricing on other platforms for Wisconsin's Question 1, which concerns the governor's veto power. However, the subsequent collapse to 3% directly conflicts with available information from October 30. That reporting shows continued high probabilities of passage for all three statewide constitutional amendments, with Question 1 listed at approximately 86% on one venue and the other two measures priced between 61% and 78.5% on multiple exchanges. The price change occurred on low reported volume, which suggests the move may not reflect a broad-based shift in market sentiment.
- Prohibit Government Discrimination amendment likely passes; single-party legislature referenda often succeed.
- Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee measure likely passes, driven by Republican taxpayer protection framing.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment | 3.0% | 1.6% | The amendment on government closure of places of worship during emergencies may face opposition due to public health concerns. |
| Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee Amendment | 64.0% | 65.1% | Voters often support measures that limit government's ability to increase taxes or fees. |
| Prohibit Government Discrimination or Preferential Treatment Amendment | 73.0% | 66.8% | The amendment aims to prevent government discrimination or preferential treatment, which often finds broad voter support. |
Current Context
Prediction markets indicate passage for all three Wisconsin constitutional amendments. As of October 30, 2026, prediction market pricing strongly favors passage for all three Wisconsin statewide constitutional amendments. Robinhood lists Question 1, which restricts the governor's partial veto power, at about 86% likelihood of passage [1]. Question 2, which would protect worship gatherings during emergencies, shows probabilities of about 68% on Robinhood and 72% on Kalshi [2]. For Question 3, concerning a ban on governmental discrimination or preferential treatment, Robinhood indicates about 61% passage, while Kalshi shows 78.5% [3]. These markets imply a likely outcome of Yes votes on Questions 1, 2, and 3, with Question 3 exhibiting the greatest disagreement between venues.
Three constitutional amendments address specific policy areas and partisan issues. Wisconsin's November 3, 2026 general-election ballot includes three statewide referendums, each requiring voter approval to amend the state constitution [4]. Question 1 limits the governor's partial veto power by prohibiting the creation, increase, or authorization of a tax or fee increase [4]. Question 2 would prohibit the government from closing or forbidding gatherings in places of worship during emergencies, including public-health emergencies [5]. Question 3 would ban governmental discrimination or preferential treatment in public employment, education, contracting, and administration on specified demographic grounds [6]. The Republican-led Legislature placed all three measures on the ballot [7]. Question 1 largely responds to Democratic Governor Tony Evers's 2023 '400-year veto', Question 2 links to COVID-era worship restrictions, and Question 3 addresses public-sector affirmative-action preferences [7]. WPR notes Question 3 does not specifically mention sexual orientation or gender identity [8].
Election processes have specific deadlines, and local referendums also appear. Key dates for the general election include October 30, 2026, as the deadline for in-person registration before Election Day and for write-in candidates [9]. November 3, 2026, is Election Day and the deadline for absentee ballots to reach polling places or central-count locations [9]. The Wisconsin Elections Commission chair's scheduled certification of general-election results is December 1, 2026 [9]. Beyond these three statewide measures, Wisconsin also features local ballot questions, some related to data centers [10]. Ballotpedia identifies a Janesville measure requiring voter approval for development on undeveloped portions of the GM/JATCO site if project cost exceeds $450 million [10]. Statewide prediction-market prices do not establish outcomes for these local measures [10].
Sources (10)
- 1November 3, 2026: Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 32026 Ballot Measure Odds: Prediction Markets by Statepredictionscout.com
- 4NOTICE OF REFERENDUM ELECTIONelections.wi.gov
- 52026 | Wisconsin Elections Commissionelections.wi.gov
- 6SAMPLE TYPE C NOTICE OF REFERENDUMelections.wi.gov
- 7These are the statewide referendums on Wisconsin's Nov. 3 ballot | WUWM 89.7 FM - Milwaukee's NPRwuwm.com
- 8What to know about Wisconsin's November 2026 referendums - WPRwpr.org
- 9Upcoming Events | Wisconsin Elections Commissionelections.wi.gov
- 10Wisconsin 2026 ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 October 29, 2026: 86.0pp drop
Price decreased from 89.0% to 3.0%
Outcome: Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment
What happened: The provided sources do not contain information regarding social media activity, traditional news, or specific market structure factors that occurred on or immediately before October 29, 2026, which could explain the 86.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market. While the market was noted for low quality and very low 24-hour volume on October 28, 2026 [1], no specific event or driver for the movement can be identified from the available data. Therefore, social media was irrelevant as a driver for this observed price movement based on the provided information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market asks which specific ballot measures in Wisconsin will pass. A "Yes" resolution implies a measure passes, while a "No" resolution means it does not pass; however, the precise conditions for what constitutes "passing" or "failing" are not explicitly detailed in the provided content. The market begins on Tuesday, November 3, with a maximum payout date listed as November 2, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prohibit Government Discrimination or Preferential Treatment Amendment | $0.97 | $0.40 | 73% |
| Prohibit Partial Veto to Increase Tax or Fee Amendment | $0.82 | $0.70 | 64% |
| Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment | $0.90 | $0.48 | 3% |
Market Discussion
Wisconsin will have three constitutional amendment questions on the November 3, 2026 ballot, addressing the governor's partial veto, restrictions on closing places of worship during emergencies, and prohibitions on governmental discrimination [1]. As of October 30, 2026, prediction market prices suggested that Questions 2 and 3 were expected to pass, with Question 1 being less certain; however, these prices may be unreliable due to extremely thin trading [1]. Public commentary also significantly focuses on the legal status of election prediction-market trading, as the Wisconsin Elections Commission warned it could jeopardize voting eligibility, a stance disputed by prediction market platforms [2].
5. Trust Index
“Prohibit Government Closure of Places of Worship During Emergencies Amendment” made a sharp jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score65Caution
Trade quality20% of score61Caution
Trust score64Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How do market-implied odds for Question 2 (worship gatherings) and Question 3 (preferential treatment) on Kalshi and Robinhood compare, and what factors explain the pricing divergence?
| Robinhood Q2 Price (Worship) | 68¢ [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Q2 Price (Worship) | 86¢ [1][2] |
| Kalshi Q3 Price vs. Robinhood Q3 Divergence | 36 percentage points higher on Kalshi [1][2] |
Significant price divergences exist between Robinhood and Kalshi for ballot measure contracts. As of October 30, 2026, Robinhood lists Question 2 (closure of places of worship during emergencies) at 68¢ and Question 3 (preferential treatment) at 61¢ [1][2]. In contrast, Kalshi displays corresponding contracts at 86¢ for Question 2 and 97¢ for Question 3 [1][2]. This indicates an 18 percentage point higher price for Question 2 and a substantial 36 percentage point higher price for Question 3 on Kalshi compared to Robinhood [1][2]. However, direct comparison of these displayed numbers as probabilities may be challenging due to potential differences in reporting sides, timestamps, or executable midpoints [1][3][4][2]. Furthermore, there is a labeling ambiguity, as Robinhood utilizes numbered questions while Kalshi employs descriptive market names, necessitating verification of the mapping against full contract terms before trading [3][2].
Several factors contribute to the observed discrepancies in market-implied odds. Timing is a significant element, with Robinhood identifying November 3, 2026, as the event day for live contracts, whereas Kalshi's data includes various snapshots (e.g., October 15, October 28) and a 2027 maximum-payout/close date [4][2]. Market microstructure also plays a role, as Robinhood indicates additional fees and bases its probabilities on recently paid prices [4][2]. Differences in liquidity are suggested by Public's mirrored Kalshi data, which shows contract-specific volumes of approximately $6.18K for the worship measure and $968 for preferential treatment [4][2]. Moreover, Question 2 (government closure of places of worship) and Question 3 (prohibiting government discrimination or preferential treatment) have distinct political and legal content, meaning their prices are not expected to move in tandem [1][3][2]. The available sources establish contract wording but do not provide polling data or a definitive causal event to fully explain the observed price gaps [1][3][2].
Sources (4)
- 1Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 2November 3, 2026: Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 4Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
7. What public statements or campaign activities by Governor Tony Evers or the Republican legislative leadership could shift voter sentiment on Question 1 (partial veto) before November 3, 2026?
| School districts using higher levy authority | 86% of school districts (363 of 421) [1] |
|---|---|
| Likely Republican push date | Before November 3, 2026 [1] |
| Evers campaign statement status | No specific statement documented by October 30, 2026 [1] |
Republican legislative leadership intends to emphasize taxpayer protection, framing Question 1 as a nonpartisan check on executive power and a defense against taxation without legislative authorization [1]. This messaging strategy could portray Governor Evers’s 2023 Act 19 veto as taxation without legislative authorization and repeat the "governor is not a king" accountability frame [1][2][3]. Supporters of the amendment aim to reduce partisan resistance by stressing that prior constitutional changes curtailed partial-veto techniques utilized by both Republican and Democratic governors, thereby framing Question 1 as a separation-of-powers reform [1]. Testimony from Wisconsin Manufacturers & Commerce linked the measure to rising property-tax bills, noting that 86% of school districts (363 of 421) used the higher levy authority, suggesting a coordinated message could effectively move undecided voters [1][4][5].
Governor Tony Evers may argue the amendment is unnecessary or overly broad. His most impactful counter-message would likely contend that the amendment could weaken the governor's ability to correct budget language [1][2][3]. He might also assert that it responds to only one disputed veto and should be judged against the broader history of partial-veto abuses by governors of both parties [1]. An effective warning from Evers that Question 1 is a partisan response with unintended consequences could depress "yes" support for the amendment [4][5]. However, the cited sources do not document a specific Evers campaign statement on this matter by October 30, 2026 [1].
Sources (5)
- 1Amanda Nedweskidocs.legis.wisconsin.gov
- 22023 Enrolled Joint Resolution 16: A proposed constitutional amendment to prohibit the governor from using the partial veto to create or increase any tax or feedocs.legis.wisconsin.gov
- 32023 Enrolled Joint Resolution 16: A proposed constitutional amendment to prohibit the governor from using the partial veto to create or increase any tax or feelegis.wisconsin.gov
- 4Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 5Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
8. What do the final pre-election polls from major Wisconsin pollsters, like the Marquette Law School Poll, indicate for voter support on each of the three constitutional amendments?
| Question 1 Pass Probability | 86% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Question 2 Pass Probability | 68% [1][2] |
| Question 3 Pass Probability | 61% [1][2] |
Major pre-election polls do not measure amendment support for the three constitutional amendments. As of October 30, 2026, no major-pollster surveys, including the Marquette Law School Poll, have been published that directly measure voter support for the three November 3 Wisconsin constitutional amendments [3][1][4][2]. Therefore, the available evidence does not support a reliable poll-based estimate for "Yes" support on these amendments. Accessible Marquette poll results found were from October 2025 and July 2026, covering topics unrelated to the constitutional amendments [5][6].
Prediction markets offer the clearest quantitative signal available for these amendments. Prediction-market prices currently provide the clearest quantitative signal for the outcome of these amendments [3][1][4][2]. The Robinhood market indicates Question 1 has an approximate 86% market-implied probability of passing, Question 2 about 68%, and Question 3 about 61% [1][2]. While other market snapshots show material variation and inconsistencies, such as PredictPedia reporting 78.5%, 56%, and 72% for the three named contracts, the Robinhood probabilities consistently favor all three questions to pass [3][4][2].
Sources (6)
- 1November 3, 2026: Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 4Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? Odds & Predictions - Public.compublic.com
- 5mlsp86toplinesrvlaw.marquette.edu
- 6Marquette Law School Poll – Page 5 – A Comprehensive Look at the Wisconsin Votelaw.marquette.edu
9. What campaign finance data is publicly available through the Wisconsin Ethics Commission for groups supporting or opposing the three 2026 amendments?
| Specific 2026 Amendment Spending Data | Not explicitly identified in public sources for committees, amounts, donors, vendors, or spending totals [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Referendum Committee Registration Threshold | More than $10,000 in aggregate contributions, disbursements, or obligations in a calendar year [1][2][3][4] |
| Fall Pre-Election Filing Deadline (Nov 2026 Ballot) | October 26, 2026 [1][6] |
Wisconsin's Ethics Commission publicly tracks campaign finance data for referendum committees. The Sunshine system offers public access to campaign finance data for registered referendum committees, detailing contributions, disbursements, and incurred obligations [5][1][3][4]. However, publicly available sources currently do not explicitly identify committees, amounts, donors, vendors, or spending totals specifically supporting or opposing the three 2026 amendments [1][2][3][4][5].
Data for registered referendum committees includes detailed financial disclosures. For registered, non-exempt state-level referendum committees, public data encompasses registration information and campaign finance reports disclosing each contributor's name and address. If an individual's year-to-date contributions exceed $200, their occupation is also provided [1][3][4]. Committees are generally mandated to register once they accumulate more than $10,000 in aggregate contributions, disbursements, or obligations within a calendar year [1][2][3][4].
Sources (6)
- 1INTRODUCTIONethics.wi.gov
- 2Ethics Campaign Finance: Referenda Committeesethics.wi.gov
- 3Campaign Finance Overview - Referendum Commmitteesethics.wi.gov
- 4Ethics Campaign Finance: Information for Filing Officersethics.wi.gov
- 5Ethics Campaign Finance: Search Data and View Filed Reportsethics.wi.gov
- 6Ethics Campaign Finance: Filing Calendarethics.wi.gov
10. What historical precedent in Wisconsin from 2010-2024 exists for the passage of constitutional amendments placed on the ballot by a single party's legislature?
| Overall Approval Rate (2010-2024) | 75% (9 out of 12 measures) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 2024 Approval Rate | 80% (4 out of 5 measures) [1][2][3] |
| 2024 August Amendments Failed | 43%-57% and 42%-58% opposing [1][2] |
Wisconsin voters generally approve constitutional amendments referred by a single-party legislature. From 2010 to 2024, the state's historical record shows that 9 out of 12 (75%) legislatively referred measures gained voter approval [1][2]. Successful amendments during this period include the 2014 transportation fund, the 2015 Supreme Court chief-justice selection, Marsy's Law in 2020, and both bail amendments in 2023 [1][2]. This pattern of approval continued in 2024, with four of five (80%) legislatively referred constitutional amendments passing, such as the April election-administration amendments and the November citizenship-voting amendment [1][2][3].
However, voter approval for constitutional amendments is not automatic. Despite the general trend of success, Wisconsin voters have rejected proposals [1][2]. For example, the 2018 state-treasurer abolition amendment failed to pass [1][2]. More recently, in 2024, both August amendments regarding legislative appropriations were rejected, with 57% and 58% of voters opposing them, illustrating that passage is not guaranteed for all referred amendments [1][2].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Wisconsin has three statewide constitutional amendments on the November 3, 2026 ballot, each driven by distinct catalysts. Question 1, which limits the governor’s partial veto to prevent creating or increasing taxes or fees, is tied to controversy over Tony Evers’s 2023 '400-year veto' [1][2][3]. Question 2, barring state or local government from closing or forbidding gatherings in places of worship during emergencies, stems from COVID-era emergency restrictions and raises uncertainty about capacity limits and future public-health powers [1][2][3]. Question 3, which bars governmental entities from discrimination against or preferential treatment for individuals or groups based on race, sex, color, ethnicity, or national origin, could affect affirmative-action-type programs and may trigger litigation [1][2][3]. The Wisconsin Elections Commission published the 2026 election referendum notice on August 17, 2026 [4].
Market-based catalysts introduce further complexity, as displayed probabilities vary across platforms. Kalshi implied Question 3 as most likely to pass at 73%, followed by Question 1 at 64%, and Question 2 at 3% as of October 30, 2026 [5]. Conversely, a separate Robinhood prediction-market page displayed materially different pass probabilities: Question 1 at 86¢, Question 2 at 68¢, and Question 3 at 61¢ [6]. This disagreement indicates thin liquidity, labeling differences, stale snapshots, or market-structure noise, rather than a robust consensus [6]. The ultimate operational catalyst for all three questions is the certified vote from the November 3, 2026 general election [4][1][7]. Constitutional amendments do not require the governor’s signature, having been referred after approval by the Legislature in two successive sessions [1][8].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 10, 2027
- Closes: November 02, 2027
Sources (8)
- 1NOTICE OF REFERENDUM ELECTIONelections.wi.gov
- 2What to know about Wisconsin's November 2026 referendums - WPRwpr.org
- 3Wisconsin 2026 ballot constitutional amendments - WISNwisn.com
- 42026 | Wisconsin Elections Commissionelections.wi.gov
- 5Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com
- 6November 3, 2026: Which ballot measures will pass in Wisconsin Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 7Official Ballotelections.wi.gov
- 8Type C Notice | Wisconsin Elections Commissionelections.wi.gov
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-CO-I175: NO (Sep 22, 2026)
