Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho?
Short Answer
The consensus expects the Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act not to pass in Idaho, priced at 44.0%; the model forecasts an even lower 31.0% probability.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The prediction market assessing the passage of ballot measures in Idaho saw its probability drop from 40% to 4% around September 23. This sharp repricing does not correspond to any specific development, polling release, or court ruling outlined in the available information. The market resolves based on the outcome of four certified measures: Proposition 1 (Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act), HJR 4 (legislative control over narcotics), HJR 6 (English as official language), and an advisory question on the official state gun.
The price collapse occurred on zero reported volume, indicating the shift was not driven by active trading. Instead, it likely reflects an adjustment by the market maker or a significant change in the limit order book. The current 4% price implies a very low perceived probability of the "Yes" outcome for the specific contract, whatever its precise terms may be regarding the set of four measures.
- English as Official State Language Amendment (HJR 6) appears highly probable based on market confidence.
- Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act (Proposition 1) passage likely despite late campaign factors.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drug Legalization Authority Amendment | 4.0% | 1.4% | This measure appears unlikely to pass given Idaho's generally conservative stance on drug policy. |
| English as Official State Language Amendment | 94.0% | 92.1% | Amendments designating English as an official state language often see strong voter approval. |
| Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act | 44.0% | 31.0% | The measure faces strong opposition in Idaho due to the state's conservative political climate. |
| Official State Gun Question | 0.0% | 0.0% | This question appears to lack any significant support for passage. |
Current Context
Idaho voters will decide four statewide measures on November 3, 2026 [1][2]. The certified measures include Proposition 1 (Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act), HJR 4 (legislative exclusivity over marijuana, narcotics, and psychoactive substances), HJR 6 (English as the official state language), and an advisory question for the official state gun [1][3][4][5]. Proposition 1 is a citizen-initiated statute establishing reproductive freedom and privacy, including abortion before fetal viability and in medical emergencies [3][6][7][8]. HJR 4 is a legislatively referred constitutional amendment granting the Legislature sole authority to legalize such substances, removing citizen-initiated options [3][5][9]. HJR 6 is also a legislatively referred constitutional amendment that would add English as the official state language to the Idaho Constitution, which is currently official by statute [3][5][10]. The fourth measure is an advisory question asking voters to select from six firearm options for the official state gun [5]. As of September 21, 2026, prediction markets price HJR 6 passing at 94¢, Proposition 1 passing at 89¢, and HJR 4 passing at 39¢ [2].
Proposition 1 faces sharply mixed polling and significant late-stage factors. A Boise State survey conducted November 8–17, 2025, among 1,000 Idaho adults, showed 59–61% support for Proposition 1 [11][8][12]. However, a more recent Advanced Targeting Research survey of 700 registered voters, conducted September 13–16, 2026, reported 47.4% support, 34.9% opposition, and 17.7% undecided [13]. This initiative's campaign environment is consequential; LDS Church leaders urged Idaho members to oppose Proposition 1 in September, and observers note the church's roughly one-quarter share of Idaho's population could sway a close contest [14]. Further uncertainty comes from Idaho Supreme Court litigation over the ballot wording, which could affect voter interpretation [15].
Sources (15)
- 1Idaho 2026 ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2November 3, 2026: Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 3Initiatives & Amendments | VoteIdaho.Govvoteidaho.gov
- 4Idaho elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5Idaho voters to decide official state gun ballot measure in the November 2026 election - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 62026 Idaho General Election | VoteIdaho.Govvoteidaho.gov
- 7VoterPamphletarchive.voteidaho.gov
- 8Idaho Proposition 1, Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act Initiative (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 9Idaho HJR 4, Grant Legislature Exclusive Authority and Prohibit Citizen-Initiated Measures on Marijuana, Narcotics, and Psychoactive Substances Amendment (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 10Idaho will be first state to vote on English as official language ballot measure since 2010 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 112026 Idaho Public Policy Survey - Boise State Universityboisestate.edu
- 12Idaho Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act Initiative (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 13IDAHO STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION SURVEYdata.ddhq.io
- 14LDS Church opposition could sway Idaho voters on pro-abortion ballot initiative | Zealezeale.co
- 15Idaho Supreme Court to weigh if ballot language on abortion rights initiative could mislead voterskmvt.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Drug Legalization Authority Amendment
📉 September 23, 2026: 60.0pp drop
Price decreased from 64.0% to 4.0%
What happened: The provided research does not contain any information about social media activity, traditional news, or market events on or around September 23, 2026, that could explain a 60.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for the "Drug Legalization Authority Amendment" (Idaho HJR 4). The research explicitly states that the reported 60.0-percentage-point drop/catalyst is not independently verified by the cited sources [1][2][3][4][5]. Therefore, it is not possible to identify the primary driver of this price movement based on the available information. Without specific details regarding events or communications on that date, social media's role cannot be determined.
Outcome: Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act
📉 September 17, 2026: 10.0pp drop
Price decreased from 44.0% to 34.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point drop was the release of a new poll for Proposition 1, "Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act" [6]. This poll, conducted September 13–16, 2026, showed support at 47.4%, a notable decrease from earlier polls which indicated 59% to 61% support [6][7][8][9]. Though the poll's results were identified on September 18, 2026, the market likely reacted on September 17, 2026, as this new data became available to participants, indicating a weaker position for the measure than previously thought [6]. Social media was irrelevant as no related activity or influential posts were identified in the provided information.
Sources (9)
- 12026 Idaho General Election - VoteIdaho.Govvoteidaho.gov
- 2Proposed Amendment to the Idaho Constitution – Idaho State Legislaturelegislature.idaho.gov
- 3Idaho HJR 4, Grant Legislature Exclusive Authority and Prohibit Citizen-Initiated Measures on Marijuana, Narcotics, and Psychoactive Substances Amendment (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4Idahoans consider who should decide the state’s drug lawskivitv.com
- 5Initiatives and Constitutional Amendments - Idaho Secretary of Statesos.idaho.gov
- 6IDAHO STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION SURVEYdata.ddhq.io
- 7Idaho Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act Initiative (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 8Boise State survey: Idahoans favor reproductive rights shift | Idaho Statesmanidahostatesman.com
- 9Survey: Idahoans mostly like direction of state but are worried about economy | 250 Anniversary | idahopress.comidahopress.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
Each individual market resolves to YES if its corresponding Idaho ballot measure passes, and to NO if it fails. Trading for these markets begins on November 3, 10:00 AM EST, with a maximum payout date of November 2, 2027. No special settlement conditions are specified.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| English as Official State Language Amendment | $0.93 | $0.11 | 94% |
| Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act | $0.46 | $0.61 | 44% |
| Drug Legalization Authority Amendment | $0.68 | $0.40 | 4% |
| Official State Gun Question | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Idaho voters will consider three ballot measures and one nonbinding question on November 3, 2026: HJR 6 (English as Official State Language), HJR 4 (legislature-exclusive authority over controlled substances), Proposition 1 (Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act), and the Official State Gun Question [1][2][3]. As of September 23, 2026, one market prices HJR 6 at 94¢ and Proposition 1 at 89¢, implying high probabilities of passage, while HJR 4 is priced at 39¢ [4]. However, another market shows greater uncertainty for Proposition 1's passage, with prices ranging from 50% to 55.5% Yes, suggesting it is not a certainty [4][5][6][7]. The Official State Gun Question is advisory and will not have a pass/fail outcome in the usual sense [3][8].
Sources (8)
- 1Initiatives and Constitutional Amendments - Idaho Secretary of Statesos.idaho.gov
- 2Initiatives & Amendments | VoteIdaho.Govvoteidaho.gov
- 3Idaho election preview, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4November 3, 2026: Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 5https://polymarket.com/event/idaho-passes-ballot-measure-legalizing-abortion-20260729165257291polymarket.com
- 6Idaho Passes Ballot Measure Legalizing Abortion? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
- 7Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion? — Polymarket Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 8Idaho HB 932 Official State Gun Question (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
5. Trust Index
“Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score75Good
Resolution quality is low (65), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score64Caution
Trust score73Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. How might late-campaign messaging from the LDS Church and Idaho Supreme Court rulings on ballot wording affect voter support for Proposition 1 before November 3, 2026?
| Market assessment for Prop 1 | Likely passage (as of September 23, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
|---|---|
| LDS Church opposition announcement | September 17–18, 2026 [1][3][4] |
| Proposition 1 market price | 89¢ (as of September 23, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] |
Late-campaign factors influence Proposition 1, but passage remains likely. Late-campaign messaging from the LDS Church and Idaho Supreme Court rulings on ballot wording are expected to influence voter support for Proposition 1 by affecting turnout and voter comprehension. Despite these anticipated developments, the overall market assessment as of September 23, 2026, still indicated a likely passage of the measure [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. These interventions could potentially sway marginal voters and impact turnout, though no retrieved poll has established a specific numeric lead for or against the proposition [2][11].
The LDS Church publicly opposed Proposition 1, potentially affecting turnout. Leaders of the LDS Church publicly announced their opposition to Proposition 1 on September 17–18, 2026. They directed leaders of Idaho’s approximately 1,300 congregations to read a letter during worship services for two consecutive Sundays, urging members to express opposition, citing concerns for the sanctity of human life and a stance against elective abortion [1][3][4]. This action is seen as a downside catalyst for Proposition 1, potentially mobilizing observant Latter-day Saint voters and reinforcing existing anti-abortion messages, which could be sufficient to defeat the measure if the election is close [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10].
Revised ballot language may reduce confusion but also aid opponents. Furthermore, the Idaho Supreme Court mandated revised ballot language for Proposition 1 in early September 2026. This decision followed challenges arguing the original statements were confusing, requiring wording that more accurately describes the consequences of voting yes or no [5][6][7][8][9]. While clearer language may reduce voter confusion and enhance comprehension, thereby assisting supporters, opponents can also leverage the revised wording and related fiscal discussions to emphasize the measure's broad scope, later-pregnancy exceptions, and perceived risks [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. The market price of 89¢ on September 23, 2026, suggests that traders still consider passage highly likely, implying that these developments caused only a modest reduction in odds or concentrated risk in a potentially close finish [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10].
Sources (11)
- 1Idaho Prop 1: How LDS opposition could prevent greater abortion...sltrib.com
- 2Idaho Proposition 1, Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act...ballotpedia.org
- 3LDS Church weighs in against Idaho's abortion ballot measuresltrib.com
- 4Latter-day Saint leaders join other faiths in opposing Idaho abortion...deseret.com
- 5Idaho Supreme Court approves new text for abortion ballot proposalidahostatesman.com
- 6Idaho Supreme Court approves revised ballot language for... - KTVBktvb.com
- 7Idaho Supreme Court rules state officials must re-write abortion...idahocapitalsun.com
- 8Abortion initiative group sues Idaho state officials over 'misleading...stateline.org
- 9Idaho Supreme Court hears arguments over Prop 1 ballot... - KBOIidahonews.com
- 10Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho Elections Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 11Idaho Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act Initiative (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
7. What polling data and historical precedents support the market's high confidence that HJR 6 (English as Official Language) will pass in the November 2026 election?
| Prediction market passage probability for HJR 6 | 94% (November 3, 2026 election) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Idaho House vote for HJR 6 | 59-8 [3] |
| Average voter support for state English-official-language ballot measures | 73.1% [4][5] |
Prediction markets show high confidence in HJR 6 passing in 2026. The prediction market currently estimates a 94% probability for the passage of Idaho's HJR 6 in the November 3, 2026 election, making it the highest-confidence outcome among Idaho ballot measures [1][2]. This high confidence is not derived from public polls, as none were found, but rather from market pricing, Idaho's conservative political landscape, strong legislative support, and favorable historical parallels [2][1][6]. HJR 6, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment, aims to codify English as Idaho's official language, a designation already present in current state law [7][8][9]. Significant institutional support for HJR 6 is evidenced by its overwhelming approval in the Idaho Legislature, with votes of 59–8 in the House and 30–5 in the Senate [3]. These majorities were predominantly Republican, with nearly all Republicans and two Democrats voting in favor [5]. The official arguments for HJR 6 emphasize promoting English learning, unity, shared identity, and potential cost savings in translation [9].
Historical data strongly supports English-official-language measure passage. Historically, Idaho ballot measures have been approved 71% of the time (163 out of 229) between 1889 and 2025, with legislatively referred constitutional amendments being the most common type [10]. A strong historical precedent also supports the passage of English-official-language measures when put to a popular vote [11]. Nationally, 11 of the 30 states (37%) with official English designations adopted them via voter-approved ballot measures, which saw an average support of 73.1% (ranging from 50.5% to 88.5%) [4][5]. HJR 6 largely codifies existing policy, as English has been Idaho's official language by statute since 2007, making it less of a new policy and more of a constitutional reinforcement [8][11][12]. While historical outcomes suggest a high likelihood of passage, it is important to note that these are not direct polls for 2026 and past results have varied [4][5].
Sources (12)
- 1Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho Elections Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 2Which ballot measures will pass in Idaho? - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Constitutional amendment - Idaho House Joint Resolution 6idahocapitalsun.com
- 4History of English as official language ballot measures and lawsballotpedia.org
- 5Idaho will be first state to vote on English as official language ballot measure since 2010 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 62026 Midterm Elections predictions & odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 7Idaho HJR 6, English as Official State Language Amendment (2026)ballotpedia.org
- 8Initiatives & Amendments | VoteIdaho.Govvoteidaho.gov
- 9Idaho legislators approve language for ballot measures on...idahocapitalsun.com
- 10Idaho Ballot Measures: Historical Ballot Measures Factbook - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 11English language policy ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 12Idaho election preview, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
8. How do the campaign funding sources and key endorsements for HJR 4 (Drug Legalization Authority) and HJR 6 (Official Language) compare ahead of the November 2026 election?
| HJR 4 & HJR 6 Direct Campaign Funding | $0.00 (as of August 10, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| HJR 4 Legislator Support Payments | $29,196 for Rep. Greg Ferch, $26,842.50 for Rep. Chris Bruce (June 9, 2026) [3][4] |
| HJR 6 Senate Vote | 30-5 (passed) [5][6] |
Campaign funding for HJR 4 and HJR 6 shows distinct financial engagement. As of August 10, 2026, official records indicate no direct campaign contributions for or against HJR 4 and HJR 6 [1][2]. However, HJR 4 has documented organized support from the Citizens Alliance of Idaho PAC, including specific expenditures totaling $29,196 for Rep. Greg Ferch and $26,842.50 for Rep. Chris Bruce, recorded as of June 9, 2026 [3][4]. In contrast, HJR 6's financial disclosures do not show a dedicated campaign committee or comparable measure-specific funding, suggesting its support is primarily institutional and partisan rather than driven by direct campaign finance [3][4][7][5][8].
HJR 4 faces organized support and opposition from diverse groups. Proponents include legislative sponsors like State Sen. C. Scott Grow, State Rep. Bruce Skaug, and State Rep. Josh Wheeler, along with the Freedom Foundation [9][1]. Significant opposition comes from organizations such as the Natural Medicine Alliance of Idaho, Marijuana Policy Project, Idaho 50501, Kind Idaho, NORML PAC, and Reclaim Idaho [9][1]. This opposition is also backed by Democratic legislators James Ruchti, Steve Berch, and Ilana Rubel, who frequently argue that HJR 4 would remove citizens' initiative power concerning substances like marijuana [9][1].
HJR 6 enjoys strong legislative backing, facing less organized opposition. Support for HJR 6 is largely rooted in Republican legislative and cultural messaging, demonstrated by its passage in the Senate with a 30-5 vote and in the House with a 59-8 vote, with most legislative Republicans and two Democrats voting in favor [5][6]. Key proponents include sponsor Dale Hawkins, who referenced a Trump administration executive order designating English as the U.S. official language, and Sen. Brian Lenney, who stated the measure reflects shared identity [5][6]. Opposition to HJR 6 is less organized, primarily consisting of Democrats. Sen. Melissa Wintrow notably questioned the necessity of constitutionalizing English as the official language, given its existing official status by statute [6].
Sources (9)
- 1Idaho HJR 4, Grant Legislature Exclusive Authority and Prohibit Citizen-Initiated Measures on Marijuana, Narcotics, and Psychoactive Substances Amendment (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Contributions to Idaho ballot measure campaigns - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Sunshine Financial Disclosuresunshine.voteidaho.gov
- 4Sunshine Financial Disclosuresunshine.voteidaho.gov
- 5Idaho HJR 6, English as Official State Language Amendment (2026)ballotpedia.org
- 6Idaho will be first state to vote on English as official language ballot measure since 2010 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 7Idaho Democratic Voting Guide with Endorsements for Votersbluevoterguide.org
- 8ID voter guide for the General election on Nov 03, 2026.ivoterguide.com
- 9Idaho Lawmakers Approve Ballot Language For Measure To Block...marijuanamoment.net
9. What is the official timeline and what are the key sources for tracking campaign finance disclosures for the committees involved with Proposition 1 and HJR 4 through November 2026?
| Primary Campaign Finance Source | Idaho Secretary of State’s Sunshine portal (sunshine.voteidaho.gov) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| Proposition 1 2026 Report Deadline | October 10, 2026 (for disclosures through September 10, 2026) [6] |
| HJR 4 Committee Status (as of Sep 23, 2026) | No registered support or opposition committees, no contributions or expenditures [7][8] |
Idaho campaign finance disclosures are primarily tracked through the Secretary of State. Official timelines and key sources for tracking campaign finance disclosures for Proposition 1 and HJR 4, covering up to the November 3, 2026 general election, predominantly utilize the Idaho Secretary of State’s Sunshine campaign-finance portal [1][2][3][4][5]. Idaho Code sections 67-6607 and 67-6608 mandate that political committees report contributions, expenditures, and encumbrances to the Secretary of State, with filings submitted online via sunshine.voteidaho.gov [1][9]. While official guidance indicates monthly reporting for active participants, generally due on the 10th of the subsequent month, a verified 2026 calendar detailing all specific report dates was not available in the provided materials [10][9].
Proposition 1 has a specific 2026 reporting deadline and named committees. For Proposition 1, a particular committee-report deadline identified for 2026 is October 10, which encompasses disclosures through September 10, 2026 [6]. Supporting committees for Proposition 1 include Idahoans United for Women and Families. Opposition to Proposition 1 is represented by several committees: Idaho Chooses Life, Citizens Alliance of Idaho PAC, Too Extreme for Idaho, Save Idaho PAC, Faith and Family PAC of Idaho, and Idaho Students for Life Ballot PAC [6].
HJR 4 currently shows no registered committees or financial activity. Regarding HJR 4, as of September 23, 2026, Ballotpedia’s processed data did not yet show any registered support or opposition committees, nor any contributions or expenditures [7][8]. Ballotpedia recommends continued checks of the official database for any future registrations [7]. While Ballotpedia's campaign-finance pages offer useful secondary aggregation and committee name cross-checks, they should be utilized in conjunction with official filings from the Secretary of State's portals [11][12][13].
Sources (13)
- 1The Sunshine Lawsos.idaho.gov
- 2Sunshine: Idaho Campaign Financesunshine.sos.idaho.gov
- 3Campaign Public Portalelections.sos.idaho.gov
- 4Idaho 2026 ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5Idaho elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Idaho Proposition 1, Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act...ballotpedia.org
- 7Idaho HJR 4, Grant Legislature Exclusive Authority and Prohibit Citizen-Initiated Measures on Marijuana, Narcotics, and Psychoactive Substances Amendment (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 8Idaho HJR 4, Grant Legislature Exclusive Authority and Prohibit...ballotpedia.org
- 92016 Campaign Disclosure Manual for Candidates and Political Committeessos.idaho.gov
- 102024 Campaign Disclosure Manual for Candidates and Political Committees TABLE OF CONTENTSsos.idaho.gov
- 11Campaign finance websites for ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 12Campaign finance requirements for Idaho ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 13Campaign finance requirements in Idaho - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
10. What methodological differences between the Boise State and Advanced Targeting Research polls explain the conflicting support levels for Proposition 1 ahead of the November vote?
| Boise State Poll Support | 60.5% among 508 registered voters (November 8–17, 2025) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| ATR Poll Support | 47.4% among 700 registered voters (September 13–16, 2026) [3] |
| Observed Support Gap | Approximately 12-point [3][4] |
The conflicting support levels for Proposition 1 between the Boise State and Advanced Targeting Research (ATR) polls are primarily explained by differences in the populations sampled, survey timing, and methodological approaches. The approximately 12-point support gap significantly exceeds either poll’s stated margin of error, indicating that these distinct factors plausibly drove the difference rather than direct contradiction between the polls [3][4].
Distinct methodologies, timing, and samples define the two polls. Boise State’s Idaho Public Policy Survey, conducted from November 8–17, 2025, surveyed 1,000 Idaho adults using a mixed-mode approach that included cell phone (38%), landline (10%), online (40%), and text (12%) [5][2][4]. During this period, Boise State reported 60.5% support among 508 registered voters and 58.9% among 492 registered voters, results that appeared to reflect different question wordings [1][2]. Their phrasing described the initiative as establishing a right to private reproductive-health-care decisions, including abortion up to fetal viability and in medical emergencies, testing two descriptions [5][2][4]. In contrast, ATR’s poll, conducted from September 13–16, 2026, found 47.4% support among 700 registered Idaho voters, with interviews largely conducted by text (87.8%) and 12.2% by live interview [3]. ATR described Proposition 1 as a citizen-led initiative to expand reproductive rights [4].
Timing and sample composition are key methodological differentiators between the surveys. Boise State measured broad adult opinion approximately ten months before the election, while ATR polled registered voters immediately prior to voting, which likely captured a more electorally relevant, informed, and potentially more conservative electorate [3][4]. Additionally, the mode and questionnaire differences contributed to the divergent results; Boise State utilized a multimode probability-style design and tested two descriptions for the initiative, whereas ATR employed an overwhelmingly text-based approach with a registered-voter sample and a single description [3][5][4].
Sources (5)
- 1Idaho Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act Initiative (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Idaho Proposition 1, Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act...ballotpedia.org
- 3IDAHO STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION SURVEYadvancedtargetingresearch.com
- 4Survey: Idahoans mostly like direction of state but are worried about economy | 250 Anniversary | idahopress.comidahopress.com
- 52026 Idaho Public Policy Survey - Boise State Universityboisestate.edu
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Idaho's November 3, 2026 general election includes four statewide measures: Proposition 1 (the Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act), HJR 4, HJR 6, and the Official State Gun advisory question [1][2][3][4]. The base case predicts passage for HJR 4, HJR 6, and the Official State Gun advisory question [2][4][5]. HJR 4, which centralizes authority over covered substances to the Legislature, passed the House 58-10 [4][5]. HJR 6, designating English as Idaho's official constitutional language, is largely symbolic given English is already official by statute [2]. The Official State Gun advisory question is nonbinding, passed the House 68-0, and allows voters to select one of six firearms [3][4].
–16, 2026 survey found 47.4% support, 34.9% oppose, and 17.7% undecided for Proposition 1, with a ±3.7 margin of error [9]. Bullish catalysts include historical polling leads and support across party lines, while bearish catalysts feature the September poll's narrower 12.5-point net lead, the 17.7% undecided share, Idaho's conservative baseline, and potential late opposition mobilization [9][10][11]. Early voting may begin October 13 in participating counties, with ballots due by 8 p.m. on Election Day, November 3, 2026 [12].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 10, 2027
- Closes: November 02, 2027
Sources (12)
- 1Idaho 2026 ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Idaho election preview, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Idaho HB 932 Official State Gun Question (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4Idaho voters to decide official state gun ballot measure in the November 2026 election - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 5Idaho HJR 4, Grant Legislature Exclusive Authority and Prohibit Citizen-Initiated Measures on Marijuana, Narcotics, and Psychoactive Substances Amendment (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Idaho Proposition 1, Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act Initiative (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 7Idaho initiative to create a statutory right to abortion becomes the fourth abortion-related measure on 2026 ballots - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 8Idaho Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act Initiative (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 9IDAHO STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTION SURVEYdata.ddhq.io
- 10Poll: Support for ballot question on abortion access is spread across party lines | Bonner County Daily Beebonnercountydailybee.com
- 11Survey: Idahoans mostly like direction of state but are worried about economy | 250 Anniversary | idahopress.comidahopress.com
- 122026 Idaho General Election | VoteIdaho.Govvoteidaho.gov
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-CO-I175: NO (Sep 22, 2026)
