Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?
Short Answer
The Housing & Homeownership Bond is expected to pass in Rhode Island, with the market pricing its approval at 88.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market opened with a high probability of passage, pricing in the strong bipartisan legislative support the five bond measures received months earlier. House Bill 7127, which placed the $600 million in bonds on the ballot, passed the House 65-10 and the Senate 31-7 before being signed by the governor on June 12, 2026. This legislative consensus established the high baseline expectation before trading began.
The market has since traded sideways in a narrow range. The minor price drift from 85% to 82% does not coincide with any reported developments. With only one contract traded in total, the price reflects an illiquid market where shifts are not driven by significant new information or trading volume. The probability of passage remains high and stable.
- Rhode Island's bond package received strong legislative approval, indicating institutional backing.
- Consistent voter approval for statewide bond measures supports these high-probability outcomes.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond | 82.0% | 88.3% | Support for historical preservation and cultural initiatives frequently receives voter approval. |
| Higher Education Bond | 22.0% | 23.5% | Higher education bonds sometimes face resistance due to cost concerns or competing public priorities. |
| Economic & Infrastructure Bond | 83.0% | 89.6% | Investment in economic development and infrastructure improvements often garners strong public support. |
| Environment & Water Bond | 29.0% | 29.0% | Support for environmental and water bonds can vary based on perceived urgency or funding priorities. |
| Housing & Homeownership Bond | 88.0% | 95.0% | This bond addresses a broad need for housing support and homeownership initiatives. |
Current Context
Rhode Island voters will consider five general-obligation bond questions on November 3, 2026. These legislatively referred measures total $600 million and were enacted through House Bill 7127, passed by the House 65-10 on June 5, 2026, the Senate 31-7 on June 9, and signed by Governor Dan McKee on June 12, 2026 [1][2]. The five certified statewide ballot measures are: Economic and Infrastructure Development ($100 million), Environment and Watershed Protection and Development ($55 million), Higher Education Facilities ($275 million), Historical Center and Cultural Grants ($50 million), and Housing Development ($120 million) [1][3][4][5][6][2]. Rhode Island’s General Assembly refers these bond issues to voters, as citizen initiatives are not permitted for statewide measures [3][7].
All five bond measures are more likely than not to pass based on historical trends. As of September 9, 2026, prediction market prices implied passage probabilities of 99% for Economic & Infrastructure, 99% for Housing & Homeownership, 89% for Environment & Water, 87%-89% for Higher Education, and 85% for Historical Center & Cultural Grants [8][9]. The strongest forecast indicates all five measures will pass, with Economic & Infrastructure and Housing deemed most probable, and Historical/Cultural Grants the least likely but still favored [10][8][9][6][2]. Rhode Island voters have approved every bond measure from 2008 through 2025, including comparable housing, higher-education, environmental, and cultural bond questions in recent years [6][2][11][12]. The primary risk to passage is voter frustration regarding affordability and the perceived limited impact of prior housing bonds [10]. However, public measure-specific polling is not available, nor are campaign contribution records, which as of September 26, 2026, show $0 for each measure [6][13].
Sources (13)
- 1Rhode Island Economic and Infrastructure Development Bond Measure (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Rhode Island voters will weigh in on five bond issues...news.ballotpedia.org
- 3Rhode Island 2026 ballot measuresballotpedia.org
- 4List of Rhode Island ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5Rhode Island elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Rhode Island election preview, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 7Rhode Island 2026 local ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 8Live odds: Which ballot measures will pass i… | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 9Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 10RI General Election 2026 voter guide for key races and...providencejournal.com
- 11Rhode Island Question 3, Housing Acquisition, Development, and Infrastructure Bond Measure (2024) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 12Rhode Island Question 2, Higher Education Facilities Bond Measure (2018) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 13Contributions to Rhode Island ballot measure campaigns - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 September 25, 2026: 65.0pp drop
Price decreased from 94.0% to 29.0%
Outcome: Environment & Water Bond
What happened: The reported 65.0 percentage point drop in the "Environment & Water Bond" market on September 25, 2026, cannot be independently confirmed by the provided sources, which instead indicate the measure was priced at approximately 89% and generally favored to pass around that time [1][2][3]. Available information points to strong legislative support and prior public polling showing favorable sentiment for green bonds [4][5][6]. Therefore, without verifiable evidence of such a significant market movement, no specific social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factor can be identified as a primary driver [1][3][2]. Social media activity is irrelevant as a primary driver given the lack of confirmation for the reported price drop.
Sources (6)
- 1Live odds: Which ballot measures will pass i… | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 2Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 3Will Environment & Water Bond pass? - Profetprofet.markets
- 4Rhode Island voters will weigh in on five bond issues in Nov. 2026 included in the state's budget - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 5Rhode Island Economic and Infrastructure Development Bond Measure (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6A 'green bond' will be on RI's ballot again. Some say it's not good enough.providencejournal.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For each individual ballot measure, a 'Yes' resolution occurs if the measure passes in Rhode Island, and a 'No' resolution occurs if it does not pass. Trading for these markets begins on November 3, 10:00 AM EST. The maximum payout date for contracts is listed as November 2, 2027, but no specific settlement conditions or official sources for determining a measure's passage are detailed in this content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Housing & Homeownership Bond | $0.91 | $0.17 | 88% |
| Economic & Infrastructure Bond | $0.92 | $0.16 | 83% |
| Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond | $0.84 | $0.18 | 82% |
| Environment & Water Bond | $0.91 | $0.13 | 29% |
| Higher Education Bond | $0.90 | $0.16 | 22% |
Market Discussion
As of September 9, 2026, prediction markets indicate a high likelihood that all five Rhode Island statewide bond measures will pass, with probabilities ranging from 85% to 99% for individual items [1]. These five measures, totaling $600 million, fund Economic and Infrastructure Development ($100M), Housing Development ($120M), Environment and Watershed Protection ($55M), Higher Education Facilities ($275M), and Historical Center/Cultural Grants ($50M) [2]. This aligns with a strong historical precedent, as Rhode Island voters approved all 36 bond measures from 2008 to 2025, having rejected none since 2006 [3].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score71Good
Resolution quality is low (65), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score33High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score64Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What is the historical precedent for statewide bond measure passage in Rhode Island, and how does it inform the outlook for the November 2026 questions?
| RI Bond Passage Rate (2000-2025) | 89.7% (52 of 58 measures passed) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Bond Questions | 5 questions totaling $600 million [7][8][3][4][9][5][10][11] |
| 2026 Prediction Market Sentiment | 83-99% favorable across various bonds (as of Sept 2026) [12][13][7] |
Rhode Island consistently passes statewide bond measures with high approval. Between 2000 and 2025, voters approved 52 out of 58 statewide bond measures, representing an 89.7% passage rate [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Since 2008, all 36 statewide bond measures have passed through 2025 [1][3]. Voters are consistently familiar with these referendums, as at least one bond question has appeared on every statewide election ballot since at least 2000 [2][14]. Recent successes include the approval of all three statewide bond questions in 2022 and all four questions totaling $343 million in 2024 [1][2][15][16].
Five significant bond questions are on the November 2026 ballot. These five separate bond questions total $600 million and cover infrastructure and economic development ($100 million), environmental and water infrastructure ($55 million), higher-education construction ($275 million), historic and cultural projects ($50 million), and affordable housing ($120 million) [7][8][3][4][9][5][10][11]. The 2026 package received significant bipartisan support in the legislature and was signed by Governor Dan McKee, indicating a lack of organized elite opposition [3][4][9]. Prediction markets reflect a highly favorable outlook, with prices ranging from 83% to 99% for individual bond questions as of September 2026 [12][13][7].
The 2026 bond measures are strongly favored to pass based on historical precedent. Past voter behavior in 2024 showed strong approval for categories aligning with the 2026 questions, with higher education bonds receiving 60% approval, housing 66%, environmental 67%, and cultural-arts 56% [5][6][17]. While the overall outlook is positive, the principal downside risk is voter fatigue or scrutiny over issue-specific concerns [7]. For example, the perceived impact of prior housing bonds could potentially affect the $120 million housing question [7]. Additionally, the $50 million bond for historic and cultural projects might be comparatively more vulnerable due to past instances of higher opposition to education and arts bonds [7][3][4][9][18].
Sources (18)
- 1Rhode Island Question 1, University Narragansett Bay...ballotpedia.org
- 2Voter Approval of Bond Referendums - DigitalCommons@URIdigitalcommons.uri.edu
- 3Rhode Island voters will weigh in on five bond issues in Nov. 2026 included in the state's budget - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 4Rhode Island Economic and Infrastructure Development Bond Measure (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5List of Rhode Island ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Rhode Island Question 3, Housing Acquisition, Development, and Infrastructure Bond Measure (2024) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 7RI General Election 2026 voter guide for key races and...providencejournal.com
- 8A guide for election officialsvote.sos.ri.gov
- 9Rhode Island Historical Center and Cultural Grants Bond Measure (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 10Rhode Island Housing Development Bond Measure (2026)ballotpedia.org
- 112026 ballot measuresballotpedia.org
- 12Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 13Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Islandrobinhood.com
- 14Bonds on the Ballot: What Voters (Don't) Know About Debt...onlinelibrary.wiley.com
- 15HOUSING AND HOMELESSNESS ON THE BALLOTnlihc.org
- 16Rhode Island voters approve all four bond questions...rhodeislandcurrent.com
- 17Rhode Island Question 2, Higher Education Facilities Bond Measure (2024) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 182026 Rhode Island Economic and Infrastructure Development Bond Measure Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
7. What economic headwinds or organized opposition could emerge before November 2026 to threaten the passage of Rhode Island's $600 million bond package?
| RI outstanding GO debt | $1.75 billion (as of fiscal 2025) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| New borrowing (2026 referenda) | roughly $160M [3] |
| 2026 bond campaigns (contributions) | $0 reported (both contributions and opposition contributions) [4] |
Voters are sensitive to new borrowing and potential tax increases. Economic headwinds for Rhode Island's $600 million bond package could stem primarily from public concern over borrowing costs and potential future tax increases [5]. The state's general-obligation debt stood at approximately $1.75 billion as of fiscal 2025, and there is legislative concern about adding roughly $160 million in new borrowing through 2026 referenda [3][1][2]. This fiscal-conservative vulnerability was previously highlighted in 2024, when a local $222 million bond faced grassroots opposition due to high interest rates and taxpayer fears of rising taxes [5].
No organized opposition exists yet, but project-specific challenges may arise. While Ballotpedia reports $0 in contributions and opposition contributions for all five bond campaigns for 2026, a coordinated anti-package organization has not been identified [2][4]. However, opposition could still materialize, potentially driven by project-specific skepticism, general distrust of government, or substantive policy grievances [5][6]. For instance, environmental advocates have expressed concerns that the $50 million Green Economy Bond lacks direct conservation funding [5][6]. The most vulnerable opposition messages would likely target the package's breadth or discretionary projects, such as the $50 million history/culture measure or the $275 million higher-education measure [1][7]. Such challenges might lead to targeted defeats of individual bond questions rather than the entire $600 million package [1][7]. A prediction-market snapshot as of September 9, 2026, priced the listed Rhode Island bond outcomes at 99%, suggesting that measure-by-measure defeats are more probable than a visible statewide anti-bond wave [8].
Sources (8)
- 1Rhode Island Economic and Infrastructure Development Bond Measure (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Rhode Island Historical Center and Cultural Grants Bond Measure (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Senate Finance: S3231 emails in support (12)...rilegislature.gov
- 4Contributions to Rhode Island ballot measure campaigns - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5Voters usually say yes to bond issues. Are local and state...rhodeislandcurrent.com
- 62025-2026 ECRI Green Report Cardenvironmentcouncilri.org
- 7Rhode Island voters will weigh in on five bond issues...news.ballotpedia.org
- 8Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. How do the Higher Education Bond ($275M) and the Historical & Cultural Grants Bond ($50M) compare in terms of cost and implied market probability?
| Higher Education Facilities Bond Authorization | $275 million [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond Authorization | $50 million [1][2][3][4] |
| Implied Passage Probability Difference (Higher Ed vs. Historical/Cultural) | Higher Education 4 percentage points more likely to pass (Kalshi snapshot) [5] |
Two distinct Rhode Island bond measures vary significantly in value and scope. The Higher Education Facilities Bond, authorizing $275 million, is 5.5 times larger than the $50 million Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond [1][2][3][4][5]. The higher education measure aims to fund a new integrated health building at the University of Rhode Island, a workforce innovation center at the Community College of Rhode Island's Warwick campus, and a student success and career-readiness center at Rhode Island College [1][3][4]. Conversely, the historical and cultural bond would allocate $45 million for a new Rhode Island State History Center and $5 million for matching grants administered by the Rhode Island Historical Preservation and Heritage Commission [1][3]. Both bond questions are slated for Rhode Island’s 2026 ballot and will be voted on separately, despite being enacted together in the FY2027 budget [6][7][3].
Market probabilities suggest high approval for both bonds, consistent with voter trends. Implied market probabilities from one Kalshi snapshot indicated an 89% likelihood of passage for the $275 million higher-education bond, placing it 4 percentage points higher than the $50 million historical/cultural bond, which had an 85% likelihood [5]. Although a different snapshot displayed lower absolute probabilities (72% for Higher Education and 68% for Historical & Cultural Grants), it maintained the consistent 4-point gap between the measures, suggesting the relative likelihood is more consistent than the exact probability figures [8][9]. This anticipated approval aligns with Rhode Island voters' strong history of supporting bond measures, having passed all 36 between 2008 and 2025 and not rejected any since 2006 [6][4].
Sources (9)
- 1Rhode Island Historical Center and Cultural Grants Bond...ballotpedia.org
- 2Higher Education Facilities Bond — Rhode Island 2026multistate.us
- 3Rhode Island voters will weigh in on five bond issues...news.ballotpedia.org
- 4Rhode Island election preview, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 5Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 6RI General Election 2026 voter guide for key races and...providencejournal.com
- 7Rhode Island 2026 ballot measuresballotpedia.org
- 8Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?coinbase.com
- 9Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island?coinbase.com
9. Is any public polling or campaign finance data available for the five Rhode Island bond measures on the November 2026 ballot?
| Conventional Polling Data | Not available for 2026 Rhode Island bond measures [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Reported Contributions/Expenditures | $0.00 as of research date [3][4][5] |
| Kalshi Implied Probabilities (Sept 9, 2026) | 99% (Economic/Infrastructure, Housing); 89% (Higher Ed, Environment); 85% (Historical Center, Cultural Grants) [6] |
Traditional polling and campaign finance data for bond measures are absent. Publicly available information indicates no conventional polling data exists for the five Rhode Island bond measures on the November 3, 2026 ballot [1][2]. Furthermore, public campaign finance data shows $0.00 in contributions and expenditures for these specific measures as of the research date [3][4][5]. The formal BQA-1 advocacy reporting mechanism does not yet show any 2026 question-specific filings or aggregate totals [3][4][5]. While Governor Dan McKee has publicly advocated for the bonds, specific campaign-finance receipts or spending totals for the 2026 measures are not established [7][8].
Prediction markets offer high passage probabilities for the bond measures. Despite the absence of traditional polling, a prediction-market signal reported by CoinRithm, based on Kalshi implied probabilities from September 9, 2026, suggests high likelihoods of passage for these measures [6]. This signal indicates a 99% probability for both the Economic and Infrastructure and Housing/Homeownership bond measures [6]. The Higher Education and Environment/Water measures show an 89% likelihood, while the Historical Center and Cultural Grants measures are at 85% [6]. Historically, Rhode Island voters have approved all 36 bond measures between 2008 and 2025, but this serves as historical context rather than a current forecast [9].
Sources (9)
- 1RI General Election 2026 voter guide for key races and...providencejournal.com
- 2Laws governing ballot measures in Rhode Island - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3NOTE: Return all completed forms to the Relections.ri.gov
- 4Ballot measure campaign finance, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 5Contributions to Rhode Island ballot measure campaigns - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7Governor McKee Rolls Out FY 2027 Budget | Governor's Office, State of Rhode Islandgovernor.ri.gov
- 8Governor McKee, Mayor Elorza, Environmental Leaders Kick Off Campaign for $50 Million Green Bond | Governor's Office, State of Rhode Islandgovernor.ri.gov
- 9Rhode Island election preview, 2026ballotpedia.org
10. What did the June 2026 legislative vote totals for House Bill 7127 indicate about bipartisan support for placing the bonds on the ballot?
| House Vote | 65–10 (June 5, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Senate Vote | 31–7 (June 9, 2026) [1][2] |
| Total Bond Amount | $600 million [2][1][3][4] |
House Bill 7127 received strong legislative approval, primarily from Democrats and one Independent. On June 5, 2026, the Rhode Island House of Representatives passed the bill, which sought to place five bond questions totaling $600 million on the November 2026 ballot, by a vote of 65–10 [1][2]. This significant majority included 64 Democrats and one Independent voting in favor, with all 10 dissenting votes cast by Republicans [1][2].
Senate approval showed strong support but limited Republican backing. Subsequently, on June 9, 2026, the Rhode Island Senate approved the bill with a vote of 31–7 [1][2]. All 31 affirmative votes came from Democrats, and the seven no votes were split among three Democrats and four Republicans [1][2]. Despite the broad overall majorities achieved in both chambers, the legislative votes for House Bill 7127 did not indicate cross-party bipartisan support for referring the bonds to the ballot [1][5].
Governor McKee signed the bill, placing bonds on ballot; public will vote. Governor Dan McKee signed the bill into law on June 12, 2026, thereby officially placing five separate bond questions, totaling $600 million, on the November 3, 2026 ballot [1][2][3][4]. While the passage of House Bill 7127 secured ballot access for these measures, the legislative votes do not predict the outcome for each individual bond, as the public will vote on them separately [1][2][6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1Rhode Island voters will weigh in on five bond issues...news.ballotpedia.org
- 2Rhode Island Economic and Infrastructure Development Bond Measure (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Rhode Island 2026 ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4List of Rhode Island ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 5Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 62026 Rhode Island Economic and Infrastructure Development Bond Measure Decision View | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 72026 Rhode Island Historical Center and Cultural Grants Bond Measure Decision View | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The five Rhode Island statewide bond measures, totaling $600 million, were enacted through the FY2027 budget signed by Governor Dan McKee on June 12, 2026 [1][2]. The legislature approved the budget 65-10 in the House on June 5 and 31-7 in the Senate on June 9, indicating strong institutional and legislative backing for the measures [2][1]. Historically, Rhode Island voters have approved all 36 bond measures considered from 2008 through 2025, rejecting none since 2006 [1][3]. This record establishes a significant bullish baseline for passage [1][3]. Each bond measure, including the $100 million Economic and Infrastructure Development, $55 million Environment and Watershed Protection and Development, $275 million Higher Education Facilities, $50 million Historical Center and Cultural Grants, and $120 million Housing and Development, will be voted on separately on November 3, 2026 [1][4][5][3].
Prediction markets reflect a favored outcome for all five statewide bonds to pass. As of September 9, 2026, Kalshi-implied probabilities showed the Economic & Infrastructure Bond and Housing & Homeownership Bond each at 99%, Higher Education Bond and Environment & Water Bond each at 89%, and the Historical Center & Cultural Grants Bond at 85% [6]. This indicates the clearest bullish consensus for Economic & Infrastructure and Housing, substantial but weaker support for Higher Education and Environment & Water, and the greatest relative uncertainty for Historical Center & Cultural Grants [6][1]. The election date is November 3, 2026, with September 2026 serving as the period for general-election sample ballots and voter-referenda materials, which can improve voter information [7][8][1].
Potential bearish catalysts include organized taxpayer opposition, concerns about state debt or borrowing costs, low-information voter drop-off on bond questions, or administrative and legal changes prior to certification [1]. Voter fatigue from five separate questions, general concerns about state spending, and a possible backlash against a specific project also present risks [5][3]. No current referendum polling or prediction-market prices beyond the September 9, 2026 Kalshi data are available in the cited sources [6][5][3].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 10, 2027
- Closes: November 02, 2027
Sources (8)
- 1Rhode Island voters will weigh in on five bond issues in Nov. 2026 included in the state's budget - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 22026 Green Economy Bond | Rhode Island Department of Environmental Managementdem.ri.gov
- 3Rhode Island election preview, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 4law26084-05webserver.rilegislature.gov
- 5Rhode Island 2026 ballot measuresballotpedia.org
- 6Which ballot measures will pass in Rhode Island? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7A guide for election officialsvote.sos.ri.gov
- 82026 Statewide Electionsvote.sos.ri.gov
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXSTATEBALLOTMEASURE-CO-I175: NO (Sep 22, 2026)
