Which abortion-related measures will pass in 2026?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Nevada's Question 6 shows strong support for passage through significant fundraising efforts. Virginia's Question 1, seeking reproductive freedom, is shaped by national advocacy groups.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Question 1 | 90.0% | 86.8% | Public sentiment often favors measures that secure abortion access when put to a vote. |
| Missouri Amendment 3 | 95.0% | 93.4% | Measures expanding abortion access generally see broad voter approval on the ballot. |
| Nevada Question 6 | 97.3% | 97.0% | Voter support for reproductive rights measures consistently appears strong in ballot initiatives. |
Current Context
Sources (12)
- 1Ballot measures related to abortion policy, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 22026 Abortion-Related Ballot Measures - State Court Reportstatecourtreport.org
- 3Voter ID, abortion and bans on trans athletes on ballots in November - UPI.comupi.com
- 4Idaho initiative to create a statutory right to abortion becomes the fourth abortion-related measure on 2026 ballots - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 5Virginia Question 1, Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment...ballotpedia.org
- 6Idaho Proposition 1, Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act...ballotpedia.org
- 7Nevada Question 6, Right to Abortion Initiative (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 8Voters to decide at least three abortion-related ballot measures in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 9Voters to decide at least three ballot measures on abortion this year, following record number in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 10Missouri Amendment 3, Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 11Will the Nevada Abortion Protection Amendment Pass? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
- 12Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 September 03, 2026: 75.0pp spike
Price increased from 20.0% to 95.0%
Outcome: Missouri Amendment 3
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market, titled "Which abortion-related measures will pass this year?", implicitly resolves to YES if a listed measure passes and NO if it does not, though the precise contractual definitions for "passing" are not detailed in this content. The market begins trading on November 3, 8:00 AM EST. A maximum payout date for the market is specified as November 3, 2027.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Question 6 | $0.97 | $0.09 | 97% |
| Missouri Amendment 3 | $0.21 | $0.85 | 95% |
| Virginia Question 1 | $0.94 | $0.10 | 90% |
Market Discussion
As of September 3, 2026, voters in Idaho, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia will decide on four certified abortion-related ballot measures during the November 3, 2026, general election [1][2][3]. The Nevada and Virginia measures aim to establish state constitutional rights to abortion, and Idaho's seeks a state statutory right to reproductive freedom; in contrast, Missouri's Amendment 3 aims to repeal a previously approved constitutional right and prohibit most abortions [1][4][5][6][2][3]. Prediction market traders generally view the passage of protective measures in Virginia and Nevada as probable, but indicate lower probabilities for Missouri's restrictive Amendment 3 [7][8][9][10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1Ballot measures related to abortion policy, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 2Idaho initiative to create a statutory right to abortion becomes the fourth abortion-related measure on 2026 ballots - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 3Voters to decide at least three abortion-related ballot measures in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 42026 Abortion-Related Ballot Measures - State Court Reportstatecourtreport.org
- 5Housing, gender, abortion policies among state ballot measures in...osvnews.com
- 6Missouri Amendment 3, Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition Procedures for Minors Amendment (2026) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 7https://polymarket.com/event/idaho-passes-ballot-measure-legalizing-abortion-20260729165257291polymarket.com
- 8Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass? Pre... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 9Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?lines.com
- 10Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass? Predi... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 11Which abortion-related measures will pass in… | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
5. Trust Index
Resolution quality is low (65), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
6. Which National Advocacy Groups Will Define the Virginia Question 1 Campaign in 2026?
| Virginia Question 1 Ballot Date | November 3, 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Reproductive Freedom for All Campaign Budget | $23.5 million nationwide midterm effort [3] |
| Virginia Question 1 Scope | Establishes fundamental right to reproductive freedom, allows third-trimester restrictions [1][4][5] |
Sources (10)
- 1Virginia Question 1, Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment...ballotpedia.org
- 2Virginia 2026 ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 32026 Midterm Map: See Where Repro Freedom is on the Ballotreproductivefreedomforall.org
- 4A constitutional amendment on reproductive rights is headed to...whro.org
- 5Proposed Constitutional Amendment, Question 1elections.virginia.gov
- 6Abortion on the 2026 Ballot: The Evolving Landscape of State... - KFFkff.org
- 72026 Abortion-Related Ballot Measures - State Court Reportstatecourtreport.org
- 8Voters to decide at least three abortion-related ballot measures in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 9Ballot measures related to abortion policy, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 10Idaho initiative to create a statutory right to abortion becomes the fourth abortion-related measure on 2026 ballots - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
7. What Can Missouri's Amendment 3 Campaign Learn from Recent Anti-Abortion Measure Failures in States like Kansas and Ohio?
| Kansas & Ohio Anti-Abortion Measures | Rejected by voters in 2022 and 2023 (Kansas and Ohio) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Missouri 2024 Pro-Choice Initiative | Successful (Missouri) [3][4] |
| Missouri 2026 Amendment 3 Odds of Passing | 14%-19% (as of September 3, 2026, Kalshi prediction markets) [5][6][7][8][9] |
Sources (12)
- 1Reactions to Ohio Issue 1 and future abortion-related ballot measures - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 2Kansans reject amendment to provide that the state constitution does not secure a right to abortion - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 3Poll: Missouri voters support abortion rights ballot measurekansascity.com
- 4Missouri's voters restored abortion rights. Their leaders are...19thnews.org
- 5MN-05 Republican nominee? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 6Trader | Paritypredictparity.com
- 7Who will be the top ActBlue fundraiser on Au… | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 8North Carolina's 11th District margin of vic… | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 9Which abortion-related measures will pass this year? - Kalshikalshi.com
- 10The key ballot measures to watch in 2026 - The Hillthehill.com
- 11Missouri Amendment 3, Prohibit Abortion and Gender...ballotpedia.org
- 12Missouri voters to decide on overturning abortion rights amendment, banning gender transition procedures for minors - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
8. How Do Campaign Strategies for Missouri's Amendment 3 and Virginia's Question 1 Compare?
| Missouri Amendment 3 Opposition Contributions | $1,850,772.57 (as of March 31, 2026) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Missouri Amendment 3 Support Contributions | $321,745.30 (as of March 31, 2026) [1][2] |
| Virginia Question 1 Support Contributions | $521,567.02 (as of March 31, 2026) [1][2] |
Sources (10)
- 1Voters to decide at least three abortion-related ballot measures in 2026 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 2Ballot measures related to abortion policy, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 3Missouri Amendment 3 Explained: What Voters Should Knowabortionactionmissouri.org
- 4Missouri Amendment 3, Prohibit Abortion and Gender Transition...ballotpedia.org
- 5Proposed Constitutional Amendment, Question 1elections.virginia.gov
- 6Virginians will weigh in on 3 changes to their state constitution this...cardinalnews.org
- 7Which abortion-related measures will pass this year? - Kalshikalshi.com
- 8Trader | Paritypredictparity.com
- 9Virginia Constitutional Amendmentsvacatholic.org
- 10Virginia voters to decide on amendment to protect abortion rightstheguardian.com
9. Where Can Traders Find Reliable Polling and Campaign Finance Data for the 2026 Abortion Ballot Measures?
| Primary data source for polling & finance | Ballotpedia [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Campaign finance data detail | Aggregates contributions by committees and links to state systems (Ballotpedia) [5][6] |
| Certified 2026 abortion measures | Missouri Amendment 3, Nevada Question 6, Virginia Amendment/Question 1 [1][7] |
Sources (11)
- 1Ballot measures related to abortion policy, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 22026 ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 3Statewide Ballot Measures Databasencsl.org
- 4The Status of Abortion-related State Ballot Initiatives Since Dobbskff.org
- 5Ballot measure campaign finance, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6State ballot measure campaign finance analyses - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 7Abortion policy ballot measures - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 8Virginia Question 1, Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment...ballotpedia.org
- 9Idaho Proposition 1, Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act...ballotpedia.org
- 102026 Live Midterms Forecasts by State | Kalshikalshi.com
- 11All Political Prediction Markets — Live Odds | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
10. Does Polling and Fundraising Data from 2026 Support a 'Yes' Vote on Nevada's Question 6?
| Total 2026 Support Contributions | $200,000 (as of early September 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Leading Pro-Measure PAC Fundraising | Over $815,000 (Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom) [2] |
| Total 2026 Opposition Contributions | $0 [1] |
Sources (6)
- 1Contributions to Nevada ballot measure campaignsballotpedia.org
- 2Tracking 2026 Nevada ballot measures: What's up for a vote and...thenevadaindependent.com
- 3Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 4Will El-Sayed, Flanagan, and Hong win their… | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 5Voters to decide at least three abortion-related ballot...news.ballotpedia.org
- 6Daily Brew: February 10, 2025ballotpedia.org
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (12)
- 1Ballot measures related to abortion policy, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 2Idaho initiative to create a statutory right to abortion becomes the fourth abortion-related measure on 2026 ballots - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 32026 Abortion-Related Ballot Measuresstatecourtreport.org
- 42026 Live Midterms Forecasts by Statekalshi.com
- 5Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass? Odds | Lines.comlines.com
- 6Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass? Pre... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 7Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for | Lines.comlines.com
- 8Supreme Court May Deal GOP New Midterm Blow With Abortion Decision - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 9Abortion pill rulings bring the issue back to the forefront | AP Newsapnews.com
- 10Abortion Polling 2026: How the Dobbs Backlash Shapes the Midtermsuspollingdata.com
- 11Voters to decide at least three ballot measures on abortion this year, following record number in 2024 - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 12Idaho Proposition 1, Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act...ballotpedia.org