Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the Republican party to win the Attorney General race in Idaho, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

No historical price data available.
  • Raúl Labrador is the incumbent in deeply Republican Idaho.
  • Labrador holds a significant fundraising advantage over his challenger.
  • An ongoing ethics probe alleges Labrador committed professional conduct violations.
  • Analysts assess the Attorney General race as uncompetitive.
  • No Democratic candidate secured a statewide win since the 1990s.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Republican party 96.0% 95.0% Raúl Labrador is the incumbent Republican in Idaho, a state with a strong GOP lean and historical AG dominance.
Democratic party 5.0% 5.0% Lori Hickman faces immense challenges in deeply Republican Idaho, where Democrats have not won statewide.

Current Context

Incumbent Raúl Labrador is favored in Idaho's deeply Republican Attorney General race. Raúl Labrador, a Republican, was elected Attorney General in 2022, having defeated Lawrence Wasden in the primary [1]. Idaho has a strong Republican lean, with no Democratic Attorney General elected in decades, evidenced by Donald Trump's +37% margin in the state in 2024 [2][3]. A November 2025 analysis by Troutman Pepper identified the Idaho Attorney General election as an uncompetitive incumbent race [3].
As of May 2026, the primary is uncontested for both parties. The Republican and Democratic primaries are currently uncontested, making Labrador and Johnathan Hickman the presumptive nominees for their respective parties [4]. Six days before the primary on May 13, 2026, no public polls or explicit prediction market odds have been found for the Attorney General election [1][4][5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Idaho Attorney General election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Idaho Senate Prediction 2026: Latest Polls and Forecastelectionpredictionofficial.com
  3. 32026 State Attorney General Elections: What You Need to Know - Troutman Pepper Locketroutman.com
  4. 42026 Idaho Attorney General electionen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the Republican party market, a "Yes" resolution occurs if a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as the Attorney General of Idaho for the term beginning in 2027; otherwise, it resolves to "No." The market opens on July 3, 2025, and will close early once the Attorney General for the seat is sworn in, or by November 3, 2027, at 11:00 am EDT if the outcome isn't clear before then. Payout is projected 30 minutes after closing, with outcomes verified from state government sources, and insider trading is prohibited for individuals with material non-public information or employment by source agencies.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Republican party $0.99 $0.04 96%
Democratic party $0.05 $1.00 5%

Market Discussion

Incumbent Republican Raúl Labrador is seeking a second term and has filed for reelection [1][2]. Democratic challenger Lori Hickman announced her candidacy in February 2026, with the primary set for May 19, 2026, and the general election for November 3, 2026 [3][4][5]. Despite a lack of specific polls or prediction market odds for this race [6][7][8], Idaho's strong Republican lean, where no Democrat has won statewide recently, is expected to heavily favor the incumbent [9], a trend also evident in the Idaho Governor market showing the Republican at 95% on Polymarket [10].

Sources (10)
  1. 12026 Idaho Attorney General electionen.wikipedia.org
  2. 2Idaho Attorney General Raúl Labrador files for reelection ahead of 2026 GOP primaryidahonews.com
  3. 3Idaho Attorney General election, 2026 (May 19 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  4. 4Idaho Attorney General election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Boise attorney enters race for Idaho attorney general as Democratic candidatekmvt.com
  6. 6Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho? | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
  7. 7Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho? - Kalshikalshi.com
  8. 8Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  9. 9Prediction markets blur the line between gambling and elections in Idahoidahoednews.org
  10. 10Idaho Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 75 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score83Good
Trade quality20% of score43High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score75Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 1 below the volume floor — not scored

Raúl Labrador—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
—

No reading right now

1 contract · 1 below the volume floor — not scored

Raúl Labrador—
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 1 below the volume floor — not scored

Raúl Labrador100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
43High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Liquidity unreadable

No significant moves to grade

$100 order: 2.4c slippage (~2% of a 97.4c contract)

$1,000 order: 2.5c slippage (~3% of a 97.4c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

1 below the volume floor — not scored

Raúl Labrador–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
No trading in 4d

No trades in the last 4d — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What does historical precedent suggest about the Democratic Party's ceiling for support in a statewide Idaho race?

Highest Dem vote share, SOS (2014)43.8% [1][2][3]
Highest Dem vote share, Attorney General (2002)41.9% [4]
Highest Dem vote share, Governor (1994)43.9% [5][6]
The Democratic Party has faced significant challenges in Idaho statewide elections for decades. The party has not secured a statewide victory since the 1990s, with the last Democratic statewide official being Attorney General Larry Echo Hawk, who served from 1991 to 1995 [7][8]. Historical data consistently indicates that the ceiling for Democratic support in Idaho's statewide races generally ranges in the low-to-mid 40s.
This pattern of support holds true across various statewide offices. In Attorney General elections, Democratic candidates received 41.9% in 2002 [4], approximately 38% in 2006 [9], 32% in 2014 [10], 34.6% in 2018 [10][11], and 37.4% in 2022 [12][13]. For the Secretary of State office, Democratic candidates have garnered between 27% and 44% of the vote, with the highest recent achievement being 43.8% in 2014 [1][2][3]. Similarly, Democratic gubernatorial candidates since 2000 have reached a maximum of 38% in 2018, though a candidate did achieve 43.9% in 1994 [5][6].
Sources (13)
  1. 12022 Secretary of State General Election Results - Idahouselectionatlas.org
  2. 21998 General - Secretary of State Racearchive.sos.idaho.gov
  3. 32014 Idaho Secretary of State electionen.wikipedia.org
  4. 42002 General Results Attorney Generalsos.idaho.gov
  5. 5Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Compare Graphsuselectionatlas.org
  6. 6List of governors of Idahoen.wikipedia.org
  7. 7Idaho Attorney Generalen.wikipedia.org
  8. 8Idaho Democratic Partyen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9Lawrence Wasdenen.wikipedia.org
  10. 10Idaho Attorney General election, 2022 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  11. 11Attorney General of Idaho - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  12. 122022 Attorney General General Election Results - Idahouselectionatlas.org
  13. 132022 Idaho Attorney General electionen.wikipedia.org

6. What potential scandals or political missteps could jeopardize Raúl Labrador's re-election campaign before November 2026?

Ethics Probe InitiatedJuly 2024 [1][2][3]
Staff Turnover (6 months)33 employees (26 attorneys) in first 6 months of 2023 [4]
Retaliation Lawsuit FiledSeptember 2023 [5]
Raúl Labrador's re-election campaign faces significant internal and ethical challenges. An ongoing ethics probe, initiated in July 2024 by the Idaho State Bar, alleges seven violations of professional conduct rules against him [1][2][3]. Furthermore, his office experienced substantial staff turnover, with 33 employees, including 26 attorneys, departing in the first six months of 2023 [4]. This high turnover continued with multiple senior staff resigning by October 2023 [6][7]. These internal issues are compounded by a lawsuit filed in September 2023 by fired attorney Daphne Huang, who alleges she was retaliated against for raising ethical objections
Read more at: https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article279777699.html#storylink=cpy | Boise State Public Radio" aria-label="Source 5: Fired Idaho attorney sues AG Raúl Labrador, says she was retaliated against</p><p>Read more at: https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article279777699.html#storylink=cpy | Boise State Public Radio" data-citation-label="Fired Idaho attorney sues AG Raúl Labrador, says she was retaliated against</p><p>Read more at: https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article279777699.html#storylink=cpy | Boise State Public Radio">[5].
Beyond internal pressures, legal and political actions also pose risks. A judicial ruling in August 2023 identified a "notable conflict of interest" concerning a 2023 grant investigation [8]. Additionally, Labrador's participation in the far-right Liberty Dinner in March 2026 has been highlighted as a potential misstep. At this event, he delivered a keynote address and backed candidates aligned with the Idaho Freedom Foundation amidst ongoing Republican infighting [9][10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Attorney General Labrador under ethics investigation by Idaho State Bar after complaint | Local | idahostatejournal.comidahostatejournal.com
  2. 2Attorney General Labrador under ethics investigation by Idaho State Bar after complaintidahocapitalsun.com
  3. 3Idaho AG Raúl Labrador subject to state bar investigation | Idaho Statesmanidahostatesman.com
  4. 4Idaho AG Labrador defends ‘aggressive’ actions, turnover | Idaho Statesmanidahostatesman.com
  5. 5Fired Idaho attorney sues AG Raúl Labrador, says she was retaliated against</p><p>Read more at: https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article279777699.html#storylink=cpy | Boise State Public Radioboisestatepublicradio.org
  6. 6Top officials resign under Idaho Attorney General Labrador | Idaho Statesmanidahostatesman.com
  7. 7Four senior Idaho Attorney General staffers resign as shakeups in AG’s office continueidahocapitalsun.com
  8. 8Judge: Labrador has conflict of interest in grant probe | Idaho Statesmanidahostatesman.com
  9. 9OPINION: Raul Labrador chooses sides in Idaho’s Republican civil war | Coeur d'Alene Presscdapress.com
  10. 10OPINION: Raul Labrador chooses sides in GOP civil warlmtribune.com

7. How do the campaign finances of Raúl Labrador and his Democratic challenger stack up for the 2026 cycle?

Raúl Labrador Campaign Funds$552,742 (2026 cycle) [1]
Lori Hickman Campaign Funds$62,153 [1]
Election DatesPrimary May 19, 2026; General November 3, 2026 [2]
Raúl Labrador holds a strong financial lead over his challenger. For the 2026 Idaho Attorney General race, incumbent Raúl Labrador has amassed $552,742 in campaign contributions during the current cycle, positioning him as the second-highest fundraiser among all statewide candidates. In stark contrast, his Democratic opponent, Lori Hickman, has raised $62,153 [1].
Upcoming election dates follow Labrador's past strong performance. The primary elections for the Idaho Attorney General race are scheduled for May 19, 2026, with the general election set for November 3, 2026. Historically, Raúl Labrador secured a wide margin of victory in the 2022 general election, indicating strong prior electoral support. Public interest in the race is further highlighted by an active prediction market dedicated to forecasting the winner of the Idaho Attorney General race [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Campaign finance: Idaho Gov. Brad Little outraises all statewide candidateskmvt.com
  2. 2Idaho Attorney General election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

8. What is the availability of public polling data for the 2026 Idaho Attorney General race?

Primary Election DateMay 19, 2026 [1][2][3]
General Election DateNovember 3, 2026 [1][2][3]
2022 AG Race Incumbent Poll43% for Raúl Labrador [4][5]
Public polling data for the 2026 Attorney General race is currently unavailable. No specific public polling data has been found for the 2026 Idaho Attorney General race [4][5]. While a general 2026 Idaho poll was conducted by the Mountain States Policy Center in January 2026, surveying 600 individuals on issues such as transparency and tax relief, it did not focus on the Attorney General race [6]. For historical context, past polls from the 2022 Attorney General race indicated that incumbent Raúl Labrador received 43% of the vote compared to Wasden's 34% [4][5].
The 2026 Idaho Attorney General elections are set for May and November. The primary election for the 2026 Idaho Attorney General is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with the general election to follow on November 3, 2026 [1][2][3]. As of current information, incumbent Raúl Labrador is unopposed in the Republican primary [1][3][7]. Similarly, Lori Hickman is unopposed in the Democratic primary for the same office [1][8][3].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Idaho Attorney General election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Election Information | VoteIdaho.Govvoteidaho.gov
  3. 32026 Idaho Attorney General electionen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4New Idaho Dispatch/Zoldak Research Poll on Governor, Lt. Governor, and AG Race in Republican Primary – Idaho Dispatchidahodispatch.com
  5. 5New Poll Says Raul Labrador Leading AG Race by 9 Points with 16% Undecided – Idaho Dispatchidahodispatch.com
  6. 62026 Idaho Poll: Voters want transparency, tax reliefmountainstatespolicy.org
  7. 7Idaho Attorney General election, 2026 (May 19 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 8Idaho attorney Lori Hickman launches attorney general bid, vows people-first leadershipidahonews.com

9. How strong is the Republican party's historical hold on Idaho's statewide offices?

Republican Trifecta Duration32 years (through 2026) [1]
2022 AG Election - Republican Vote62% (Labrador) [2]
Legislative Supermajority (2025)Senate: 29/35, House: 61/70 [3]
Republicans have historically maintained a dominant hold on Idaho's statewide offices. The Republican party has consistently achieved trifectas in Idaho since 1995, a streak projected to last 32 years through 2026, with no Democratic trifectas observed since 1992 [1]. The Attorney General's office, a key statewide position, has been continuously held by a Republican since 1995. This period saw Lance and Wasden serve for two decades, followed by Raúl Labrador, who assumed the role in 2023 [4][2].
Republican dominance is evident in recent elections and legislative control. The 2022 Attorney General race highlighted this trend, with Republican candidate Raúl Labrador securing 62% of the vote against Democratic candidate Arkoosh, who received 37% [2]. This strong Republican influence extends to the Idaho legislature, where they hold significant supermajorities; as of 2025, Republicans occupy 29 of the 35 Senate seats and 61 of the 70 House seats [3]. Looking ahead, prediction markets indicate a high probability, over 95%, of a Republican victory in the 2026 Idaho Governor race [5][6]. For the upcoming 2026 Attorney General election, Raúl Labrador is the Republican incumbent, facing Democratic candidate Lori Hickman, with primaries scheduled for May 19, 2026 [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Party control of Idaho state government - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Attorney General of Idaho - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Idaho Republican Partyen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Idaho Attorney Generalen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Idaho Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  6. 6Idaho Governor Election Winner Odds — Democrat 5¢predictionhunt.com
  7. 7Idaho Attorney General election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  8. 82026 Idaho Attorney General electionen.wikipedia.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The immediate catalyst in the election cycle is the primary election scheduled for May 19, 2026, which is 8 days from now [1][2]. Incumbent Raúl Labrador, who was elected in 2022 with 62.6% of the vote, is running for his second term and is the presumptive nominee, with no challengers listed for the Republican primary [3][1][2]. Given Idaho's deep-red status, with an R+36.5 PVI, this primary is expected to solidify the Republican candidacy [3][4].
A potential, though currently unlikely, catalyst for a change in market probability would be a significant shift in the dynamics surrounding the Democratic candidate, Lori Hickman. Hickman, the sole Democratic candidate, has focused her campaign on criticizing Labrador's 'culture wars' [5]. However, no polls have been found, and the race is not considered competitive according to current ratings [4][3]. Prediction markets reflect this low competitiveness, with similar state races showing a 92-95% probability of a GOP win [6][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: November 03, 2027
  • Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (7)
  1. 1Idaho Attorney General election, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  2. 2Idaho Attorney General election, 2026 (May 19 Republican primary) - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 32026 United States attorney general electionsen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4Attorney General elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  5. 5Home - loriforidaho.comloriforidaho.com
  6. 6Who will win the Attorney General race in Idaho? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  7. 7Idaho Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds | Polymarketpolymarket.com