Hurricane Norbert category?
Short Answer
Hurricane Norbert is not expected to reach Category 1 or above. National Hurricane Center advisories forecast the tropical storm to degenerate into a remnant low by September 15, 2026, and dissipate without reaching hurricane intensity, an outcome the market prices at 7.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The dominant price move in this market was a 77.0 percentage point drop on September 12, 2026, driven by a shift in the meteorological outlook for Tropical Storm Norbert. National Hurricane Center forecasts on that day indicated Norbert was expected to become a hurricane. When the storm failed to intensify as predicted, the market probability of it reaching hurricane status collapsed from 85.0% to 8.0%.
The market's earlier climb was tied to the storm's initial development. A 52.0 percentage point spike on September 10 coincided with the official formation of Tropical Storm Norbert. No specific drivers were identified for the smaller spikes on September 9 and September 11. As of September 13, Norbert remains a Tropical Storm, and the market price reflects a low probability of it reaching hurricane strength.
- Norbert is not expected to reach hurricane intensity, forecast to dissipate by September 16, 2026.
- National Hurricane Center forecasts degeneration into a remnant low by September 15, 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Category 1 or above | 7.0% | 2.4% | The National Hurricane Center forecasts Tropical Storm Norbert to dissipate before reaching hurricane intensity. |
| Category 2 or above | 5.0% | 1.7% | The National Hurricane Center forecasts Tropical Storm Norbert to dissipate before reaching hurricane intensity. |
| Category 3 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% | The National Hurricane Center forecasts Tropical Storm Norbert to dissipate before reaching hurricane intensity. |
| Category 4 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% | The National Hurricane Center forecasts Tropical Storm Norbert to dissipate before reaching hurricane intensity. |
| Category 5 or above | 0.0% | 0.0% | The National Hurricane Center forecasts Tropical Storm Norbert to dissipate before reaching hurricane intensity. |
Current Context
Tropical Storm Norbert has not reached hurricane status as of September 13, 2026. While the National Hurricane Center's September 12, 2026, forecasts indicated Norbert was expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, it remains a Tropical Storm [^][^][^][^][^]. The most recent advisory (Advisory 14) reports maximum sustained winds for Tropical Storm Norbert at 45–50 mph [^][^].
Norbert is expected to weaken significantly and dissipate by mid-week. Forecasts indicate the system will degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday, September 15, 2026, and fully dissipate by Wednesday, September 16, 2026 [^][^]. Norbert is located well east of Hawaii and poses no land threat, with no coastal watches or warnings currently in effect [^][^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 September 12, 2026: 77.0pp drop
Price decreased from 85.0% to 8.0%
Outcome: Category 1 or above
What happened: The primary driver of the 77.0 percentage point drop in the "Hurricane Norbert category?" prediction market on September 12, 2026, was the evolving meteorological outlook for Tropical Storm Norbert. Although the National Hurricane Center forecasted on early September 12, 2026, that Norbert would become a hurricane within 24 hours [^], it consistently remained a tropical storm [^][^][^][^] and was subsequently forecast to weaken into a remnant low by September 15, 2026 [^][^]. This shift in outlook, from potential intensification to expected weakening, signaled that Norbert was unlikely to achieve Category 1 hurricane status, causing the market to price in the lower probability of that outcome [^][^][^][^][^]. No social media activity was identified as a driver; therefore, social media was irrelevant to this price movement.
📈 September 11, 2026: 17.0pp spike
Price increased from 69.0% to 86.0%
Outcome: Category 1 or above
What happened: No specific social media activity, traditional news announcements, or market structure factors are identified in the provided web research that would explain the 17.0 percentage point spike on September 11, 2026. The available information primarily indicates that as of September 13, 2026, Norbert is classified as a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 50 mph, and is expected to weaken [^][^][^]. While some early forecasts suggested potential intensification, no specific event on September 11, 2026, is detailed to coincide with this particular market movement [^]. Based solely on the provided data, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver or accelerant.
📈 September 10, 2026: 52.0pp spike
Price increased from 17.0% to 69.0%
Outcome: Category 1 or above
What happened: The primary driver for the 52.0 percentage point spike in the "Hurricane Norbert category?" prediction market on September 10, 2026, was the official formation of Tropical Storm Norbert earlier that day [^]. Despite initial reports on September 10, 2026, stating it was expected to weaken [^], the market likely reacted to the storm's formal designation by pricing in the potential for intensification to Category 1 or above. This initial market optimism for the newly formed storm's potential appears to have been present, as a September 12, 2026, forecast indicated Norbert was expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours [^]. Social media activity was not identified as a primary driver or contributing accelerant for this market movement.
📈 September 09, 2026: 10.0pp spike
Price increased from 2.0% to 12.0%
Outcome: Category 1 or above
What happened: The research indicates that social media was not a primary driver for the 10.0 percentage point price spike in the "Hurricane Norbert category?" market on September 9, 2026. On this date, Norbert was a tropical depression, not a hurricane, and there is no evidence of social media activity specifically related to it reaching Category 1 [^][^][^]. While significant weather events like record rainfall in Japan and storms in Switzerland occurred on September 9, 2026, they were unrelated to Hurricane Norbert [^][^][^][^]. Thus, social media was irrelevant, and the primary driver for this market movement is not identified in the provided information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Hurricane Norbert reaches Category 3 or above, and NO if it does not. The maximum payout date for this market is December 1, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Category 1 or above | $0.08 | $0.98 | 7% |
| Category 2 or above | $0.04 | $0.98 | 5% |
| Category 3 or above | $0.10 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Category 4 or above | $0.10 | $0.99 | 0% |
| Category 5 or above | $0.10 | $0.99 | 0% |
Market Discussion
As of September 13, 2026, Tropical Storm Norbert is not classified as a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph [^][^]. The National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate a weakening trend due to a hostile environment, expecting Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low by the middle of the week [^][^]. Prediction markets have tracked Norbert's potential to reach Category 1 hurricane status [^].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score94Strong
Trade quality20% of score40High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score83Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What specific atmospheric conditions caused the National Hurricane Center to downgrade its intensity forecast for Norbert between September 12 and September 13?
| Forecast Adjustment | Weaker intensity trend for Tropical Storm Norbert (September 12-13, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Initial Sept 12 Forecast | Potential for hurricane within 24 hours (September 12, 2026) [^] |
| Later Sept 12 Observation | Continuing to weaken (evening advisory, September 12, 2026) [^][^] |
Forecasts for Tropical Storm Norbert trended weaker between September 12-13, 2026. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) made minor adjustments to its intensity forecast, suggesting less strengthening than previously expected based on intensity models [^]. This led to a downgrade in the projected intensity for Tropical Storm Norbert during this period.
Atmospheric conditions mitigated Norbert's intensification despite favorable ocean temperatures. The NHC's assessment highlighted Norbert's sheared structure and the proximity of drier air to the west as key factors preventing rapid intensification [^]. These conditions acted as mitigating elements, even though the system was moving into a moist environment over warm 28–29°C waters [^].
Despite weakening, Norbert was still projected to reach hurricane strength. On September 12, 2026, the NHC initially forecasted Norbert to potentially become a hurricane within 24 hours [^]. However, by the evening advisory on September 12, the NHC noted that Norbert was continuing to weaken [^][^]. As of September 13, 2026, the NHC's forecast continued to predict that Norbert would reach hurricane strength by early the following week [^].
7. Based on the latest advisories from NOAA and the NHC, what is the official forecast track and intensity for Tropical Storm Norbert through September 16?
| Current Status | Active tropical storm in Eastern Pacific (September 13, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Maximum Sustained Winds | 40-50 mph (35-50 knots) (September 13, 2026) [^] |
| Forecast Intensity | Not anticipated to reach hurricane intensity; degenerating into a remnant low by September 16, 2026 [^][^][^] |
Tropical Storm Norbert maintains a westward track with no land impacts expected. As of September 13, 2026, the system is active in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 40-50 mph (35-50 knots) [^]. The official National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast tracks Norbert on a persistent westward to west-northwestward path across open waters, with no land impacts currently anticipated [^][^].
Norbert is expected to weaken and dissipate by September 16, 2026. The NHC forecasts Tropical Storm Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday and dissipate thereafter [^][^]. Through its remaining life cycle, the storm is not forecast to reach hurricane intensity, which is defined as winds of 74 mph or greater [^][^].
8. How did the intensity predictions for Norbert from the main global weather models, such as the GFS and ECMWF, compare on September 11 versus September 13?
| Period of intensity uncertainty | September 11-13, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| NHC classification on Sep 13 | Tropical Storm status [^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
| High seas forecast projection | Hurricane intensity (65 knots) within 24-48 hours (as of Sep 12, 2026) [^][^] |
Global weather models showed uncertainty about Norbert's intensity from September 11-13. Between September 11 and September 13, 2026, major global weather models, including the GFS and ECMWF, indicated significant uncertainty regarding Tropical Storm Norbert's potential intensity. These forecasts suggested Norbert could either approach or reach hurricane intensity or maintain tropical storm status, influenced by atmospheric conditions such as wind shear [^][^][^][^].
Norbert remained a Tropical Storm despite some hurricane intensity projections. As of September 13, 2026, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) classified Norbert as a Tropical Storm, not a hurricane [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. While some high seas forecasts issued on September 12, 2026, projected Norbert to reach hurricane intensity (65 knots) within 24 to 48 hours, the system maintained its tropical storm status through at least September 13, 2026 [^][^]. The available information does not provide granular details to specifically compare how the intensity predictions from the GFS and ECMWF models evolved or differed between September 11 and September 13.
9. What are the precise sustained wind speed thresholds, per the Saffir-Simpson Scale, that Norbert would need to cross to resolve as a Category 1, 2, or 3 hurricane?
| Category 1 Hurricane Wind Speed | 74–95 mph [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Category 3 Hurricane Wind Speed | 111–129 mph [^][^][^][^] |
| Norbert's Current Status (Sept 13, 2026) | Tropical storm with 45–50 mph winds [^][^][^] |
Norbert requires specific sustained wind speeds to achieve hurricane categorization. To be classified as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, Norbert's maximum sustained winds must reach 74–95 mph [^][^][^][^]. The wind speed thresholds escalate for higher categories, with a Category 2 hurricane defined by maximum sustained winds of 96–110 mph [^][^][^][^]. For Norbert to resolve as a Category 3 hurricane, which is considered a major hurricane, its maximum sustained winds would need to be between 111–129 mph [^][^][^][^].
The Saffir-Simpson Scale precisely defines hurricane wind thresholds. These specific wind speed requirements for hurricane classification are officially outlined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale [^][^][^]. As of September 13, 2026, Norbert is presently categorized as a tropical storm, with its maximum sustained winds recorded at approximately 45–50 mph [^][^][^].
10. What low-probability environmental factors would need to materialize for Norbert to defy current forecasts and rapidly intensify before dissipation?
| Current Maximum Sustained Winds | 50 mph (As of September 13, 2026) [^] |
|---|---|
| Official Forecast (Norbert) | Degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday and dissipate by Wednesday [^][^] |
| Rapid Intensification Likelihood | Low probability (requires significant environmental changes) [^] |
Norbert is forecast to weaken and dissipate due to unfavorable conditions. Tropical Storm Norbert is currently in the eastern Pacific, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 50 mph as of September 13, 2026 [^]. Official National Hurricane Center (NHC) projections indicate limited near-term strengthening, primarily due to its sheared structure and the presence of nearby dry air [^]. Forecasters anticipate Norbert will degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday and fully dissipate by Wednesday [^][^].
Rapid intensification requires specific conditions currently absent for Norbert. For a tropical storm to undergo rapid intensification (RI), typical environmental requirements include very low vertical wind shear, high ocean heat content, and a moist mid-tropospheric environment [^][^][^]. However, for Norbert to defy current forecasts and rapidly intensify before dissipation, it would necessitate significant and low-probability environmental changes [^]. These changes would include a major increase in ocean heat content or a sudden reduction in vertical wind shear [^]. Critically, these conditions necessary for rapid intensification are contrary to the atmospheric circumstances currently leading to Norbert's forecast degeneration [^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Tropical Storm Norbert, the 16th named storm of an active 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season fueled by a strengthening El Niño, was initially forecast to intensify [^] . As of September 12, 2026, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expected Norbert, then classified as a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (approximately 63 mph), to become a hurricane within 24 hours [^][^].
However, the forecast has since shifted. As of Sunday, September 13, 2026, Norbert remains a tropical storm, not a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 50 mph [^][^][^]. The NHC now expects Norbert to continue weakening, degenerating into a remnant low by Tuesday, September 15, 2026, and dissipating by Wednesday, September 16, 2026 [^][^][^]. This revised outlook suggests prediction markets, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, trading contracts on Norbert's potential to reach hurricane strength, are tracking toward resolution based on the storm failing to reach hurricane category [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 02, 2026
- Closes: December 02, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Tropical Storm Norbert, the 16th named storm of an active 2026 Eastern Pacific hurricane season fueled by a strengthening El Niño, was initially forecast to intensify [^] .
- Trigger: As of September 12, 2026, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expected Norbert, then classified as a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (approximately 63 mph), to become a hurricane within 24 hours [^] [^] .
- Trigger: However, the forecast has since shifted.
- Trigger: As of Sunday, September 13, 2026, Norbert remains a tropical storm, not a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 50 mph [^] [^] [^] .
14. Related News
15. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 14 resolved YES, 6 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHURCAT-26LOWELL-T5: YES (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXHURCAT-26LOWELL-T4: YES (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXHURCAT-26LOWELL-T3: YES (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXHURCAT-26LOWELL-T2: YES (Sep 10, 2026)
- KXHURCAT-26LOWELL-T1: YES (Sep 10, 2026)
