How many Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market overwhelmingly agree that there will be above 1 Central Pacific hurricane this year, with no actionable edge.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market for the number of Central Pacific hurricanes in 2026 shows a distinct upward trend, trading within a range of 39.0% to 74.0%. The defining price action was a sharp 29.0 percentage point spike on August 19, 2026, which moved the contract from 45.0% to its current level of 74.0%. This repricing was likely driven by an update or reaffirmation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast. The NOAA outlook calls for an above-normal season with 5 to 13 tropical cyclones, citing a moderate-to-strong El Niño as the primary driver. The market's abrupt move indicates a rapid absorption of this official guidance.
The contract has established a clear resistance level at its recent high of 74.0%, while the low of 39.0% recorded on August 14 serves as the primary support. Total volume stands at 618 contracts, though sample data points show periods of zero activity, suggesting that trading can be sporadic. The current price level reflects high market conviction that the hurricane season will be more active than average, directly aligning with the official meteorological forecast. The sentiment is decisively bullish on the probability of an above-normal number of storms.
- Strong El Niño conditions and two formed hurricanes suggest an above-normal season.
- NOAA forecasts 5-13 tropical cyclones, indicating likelihood of further development.
- AccuWeather projects 2-4 total hurricanes, questioning outcomes above four.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4 | 74.0% | 78.7% | AccuWeather forecasts 2-4 total hurricanes, implying more than 4 is highly unlikely. |
| Above 2 | 82.0% | 85.0% | Two hurricanes have already formed, and AccuWeather forecasts a total of 2-4 for the season. |
| Above 5 | 94.0% | 78.7% | AccuWeather forecasts a maximum of 4 hurricanes, making 6 or more highly unlikely. |
| Above 3 | 74.0% | 78.7% | AccuWeather forecasts a total of 2-4 hurricanes, making more than 3 less certain. |
| Above 1 | 99.0% | 98.6% | El Niño, NOAA's forecast, and two already formed hurricanes suggest further development. |
Current Context
NOAA forecasts an above-normal 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season. The agency predicts a 70% chance of above-normal activity, with a total of 5 to 13 tropical cyclones [1][2][3]. A moderate-to-strong El Niño event, characterized by warmer ocean temperatures and weaker trade winds, is the primary climate driver for this active forecast [2][3][4].
As of August 20, 2026, two named storms have occurred in the Central Pacific basin. These include Fausto, which entered the basin from the East Pacific, and Lala [5][6]. The season has generated two hurricanes, with one reaching major hurricane status [6]. Additionally, an active tropical weather system, EP90, currently shows a 90% formation chance over the next 48 hours and 7 days [7].
Sources (7)
- 12026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 2‘Very busy year:’ Central Pacific forecast calls for 5 to 13 tropical cyclones | Honolulu Star-Advertiserstaradvertiser.com
- 32026 Central Pacific Hurricane Outlook calls for above-normal season with 5-13 tropical cyclones: Maui Nowmauinow.com
- 4Hawaiʻi urged to prepare for intense El Niño hurricane season | Hawai'i Public Radiohawaiipublicradio.org
- 52026 Central Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 62026 Central Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 7Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooknhc.noaa.gov
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 August 19, 2026: 79.0pp spike
Price increased from 15.0% to 94.0%
Outcome: Above 5
What happened: The primary driver for the 79.0 percentage point price spike was likely a reaffirmation or update of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast for the 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season around August 19-20, 2026 [1][2][3]. This forecast reiterated an "above-normal" season, predicting 5 to 13 tropical cyclones, which includes hurricanes [1][4][5][2][3]. With a typical season seeing 4 or 5 tropical cyclones [1][4][5], this outlook likely increased market confidence that the total number of hurricanes would exceed 5. Based on the provided information, no social media activity was identified as a primary driver, contributing accelerant, or significant factor for this market movement.
Sources (5)
- 12026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 22026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 32026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookpreview.weather.gov
- 4‘Very busy year:’ Central Pacific forecast calls for 5 to 13 tropical cyclones | Honolulu Star-Advertiserstaradvertiser.com
- 52026 Central Pacific Hurricane Outlook calls for above-normal season with 5-13 tropical cyclones: Maui Nowmauinow.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market, "Above 4," will resolve to YES if the number of Central Pacific hurricanes this year is greater than 4. Conversely, it will resolve to NO if there are 4 or fewer Central Pacific hurricanes this year. The maximum payout date for this market is December 1, 2026. No special settlement conditions are specified in the provided content.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1 | $1.00 | $0.01 | 99% |
| Above 5 | $0.29 | $0.90 | 94% |
| Above 2 | $0.97 | $0.20 | 82% |
| Above 3 | $0.72 | $0.47 | 74% |
| Above 4 | $0.47 | $0.70 | 74% |
Market Discussion
The market's consensus forecast for Central Pacific hurricanes this year is 4. Traders are highly confident, with a 74% chance, that there will be more than 3 hurricanes. However, the probability drops to 49% for there being more than 4 hurricanes, indicating that the market expects around 4, but not significantly more.
5. Trust Index
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score85Strong
Trade quality20% of score46High Risk
Trust score77Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
6. How does NOAA's 2026 Central Pacific hurricane forecast compare to its historical accuracy during past El Niño events?
| NOAA 2026 Outlook (Central Pacific) | 70% probability of 5-13 tropical cyclones [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| 2026 El Niño Probability | Greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event [1][7] |
| Central Pacific Historical Average | 4-5 cyclones per season [4][5][6] |
NOAA projects an above-normal 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season. The 2026 outlook forecasts a 70% probability of 5-13 tropical cyclones, a prediction primarily driven by projected moderate to strong El Niño conditions which have a greater than 90% chance of developing into a very strong event [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. As of August 18, 2026, the Central Pacific season has already recorded 2 named storms and 2 hurricanes, with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) standing 7% above the 1991-2020 normal [7].
El Niño typically increases Central Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Historically, El Niño events are associated with increased activity in the Central Pacific, often creating more favorable conditions compared to the basin's average of 4-5 cyclones per season [4][5][6]. While strong El Niño conditions generally lead to significantly elevated activity, individual season outcomes can vary; for example, the 2006 season experienced near-normal activity despite a weak El Niño [8]. However, the provided information does not contain sufficient data to directly compare NOAA's 2026 forecast to its historical accuracy during past El Niño events.
Sources (8)
- 12026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 22026 Central Pacific Hurricane Outlook calls for above-normal season with 5-13 tropical cyclones: Maui Nowmauinow.com
- 3‘Very busy year:’ Central Pacific forecast calls for 5 to 13 tropical cyclones | Honolulu Star-Advertiserstaradvertiser.com
- 4<center>El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the seasonal predictability of tropical cyclones</center>aoml.noaa.gov
- 5Assessing the Skill of Operational Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecastsaoml.noaa.gov
- 6How accurate are NOAA hurricane season forecasts? Here's a look.houstonchronicle.com
- 72026 Central Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 8Name Dates Max Wind Est. Minimum Pressurenhc.noaa.gov
7. How do the key climate drivers of the 2026 season compare to those of the record-breaking 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season?
| 2015 Tropical Cyclones | 16 (record-breaking) [1][2][3][4][5] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Tropical Cyclone Outlook | 5-13 (with a 70% chance of above-normal season) [6][7][8][9][10][7] |
| 2026-27 El Niño Strength Probability | 69% chance of becoming a historic, record-exceeding event [11][12][13] |
Both 2015 and 2026 seasons involve strong El Niño conditions. Both the 2015 and 2026 Central Pacific hurricane seasons are significantly influenced by strong El Niño events [14][15][16][17][6][7][8][9][10]. The 2015 season was exceptionally active, setting a record with 16 tropical cyclones [1][2][3][4][5].
Multiple factors intensified the record-breaking 2015 hurricane season. The extreme activity of the 2015 season was primarily driven by a very strong El Niño [3][4][5]. Further research attributes this intensity to a combination of El Niño-related eastern equatorial Pacific warming, anomalous subtropical Pacific warming (known as a "warm blob" linked to the Pacific Meridional Mode), and long-term anthropogenic warming [14][15][16][17].
A strong El Niño drives the 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season outlook. The 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season is similarly influenced by a strong El Niño, which is projected to intensify further, with a 69% chance of becoming a historic, record-exceeding event during fall/winter 2026-27 [11][12][13]. This strong El Niño is the main driver for NOAA's 2026 outlook, which forecasts 5-13 tropical cyclones and a 70% chance of an above-normal season [6][7][8][9][10]. Notably, unlike 2015, current research does not specifically identify anomalous subtropical Pacific warming or the Pacific Meridional Mode as significant drivers for the 2026 season.
Sources (17)
- 1The 10th Anniversary of that Crazy Hurricane Season of 2015 – Mauka Showersmaukashowers.com
- 22015 Central Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 32015 Hurricane Season Overviewcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 4Hawai'i Ho'ohekiliweather.gov
- 5Pacific Region ENSO UPDATE AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKweather.gov
- 62026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 72026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 8Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussioncpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 9Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussioncpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 10ENSO: Recent Evolution,cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 11Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion - NOAAcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 12ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionscpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 13ENSO Forecastiri.columbia.edu
- 14Central North Pacific tropical cyclone seasons during strong El Nino events.maukashowers.com
- 15Abstract: Dominant Role of Subtropical Pacific Warming on the Extreme 2015 Central Pacific Hurricane Season (32nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology)ams.confex.com
- 16Dominant Role of Subtropical Pacific Warming in Extreme Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasons: 2015 and the Futurejournals.ametsoc.org
- 17while not at the named storm level of intensity. The North Atlantic hurricane season was below normal (section 4e2), and both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons were well above normal (section 4e3), consistent with the El Niño conditions in place (section 4b). Sidebar 4.1 also provides analysis and a summary of the overall Northern Hemisphere TC seasons and highlights the special role that El Niño plays with respect to TCs. Sidebar 4.2 describes a rare and interesting subtropical cyclone that developed over the southeast Pacific, a region usually not con ducive to such development. The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season produced 11 named storms, of which four became hurricanes and two became major hurricanes. These values are not far below the HURDAT2 30-year (1981–2010) sea sonal averages of 11.8 tropical storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major hurricanes (Landsea and Franklin 2013). Many of the storms during 2015 were weak and short-lived, and the seasonal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) value (Bell et al. 2000) was 67.8% of the 1981–2010 median (92.4 × 10 4 kt 2; Fig. 4.19). This value is below NOAA’s upper threshold (71.4% of the median) for a below-normal season (see www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/background _information.shtml), and consequently the season is classified as below-normal. A single storm, Major Hurricane Joaquin, pro duced nearly one-half of the season’s total ACE value; the remaining ten storms produced an ACE value of only 36.1% of the median. This result highlights the large number of weak and short-lived storms during the season. Combined with a near-normal hurricane season in 2014 and a below-normal season in 2013 (Bell et al. 2015), 2013–15 marks the first time since 1992–94 in which three consecutive seasons were not above normal. Since the current high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes began in 1995, 13 of 21 seasons (62%) have been above normal, and four seasons (19%) have been near normal. The 2015 season marks only the fourth below-normal season since 1995. The 2015 activity was well below the averages during the recent active period (1995–2014) of 15 named storms, 7.6 hurricanes, 3.5 major hurricanes, and 141.6% of the 1981–2010 median ACE. A yearly archive of condi tions during these seasons can be found in previous State of the Climate reports. A main delineator between more- and less-active Atlantic hurricane seasons is the number of hurri canes and major hurricanes that originate as named storms within the Main Development Region (MDR; green boxed region in Fig. 4.20a) which spans the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea between 9.5° and 21.5°N (Goldenberg and Shapiro 1996; Goldenberg et al. 2001; Bell and Chelliah 2006). Only five named storms formed in the MDR during 2015, with two becoming hurricanes and one of those be ing a short-lived major hurricane. The resulting ACE value from these five storms was only about 27% of the median, which is comparable to the 1981–2010 below-normal season average for the MDR of 18.1%. These values are well below the above-normal and near-normal season ACE averages for the MDR of 151.1% and 57.9% of the median, respectively. Two tropical storms made landfall in the United States during 2015: Tropical Storm Ana which made landfall in South Carolina in May, and Tropical Storm Bill which made landfall in Texas in June. No hur ricanes made landfall in the United States this season. No hurricanes tracked through the Caribbean Sea during 2015. This region has seen only one hur ricane in the last three seasons: Gonzalo in 2014. As discussed below, and also by Bell et al. (2014, 2015), this dearth of hurricane activity over the Caribbean Sea has reflected a lack of storms forming in the re gion due to strong vertical wind shear and anomalous sinking motion, and also a lack of storms propagating westward into the region.aoml.noaa.gov
8. What is the official forecast for Tropical Disturbance EP90, and how could its development impact the total hurricane count for the 2026 season?
| EP90 Formation Chance | 90% (48 hours & 7 days) [1] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Central Pacific Season Outlook | 5-13 tropical cyclones [2] |
| Current 2026 Central Pacific Status | 2 named storms, 2 hurricanes (as of Aug 18, 2026) [3] |
Tropical Disturbance EP90 shows high potential for development. As of August 20, 2026, there is a high (90%) chance of formation for Tropical Disturbance EP90 within both the next 48 hours and 7 days [1]. Development into a tropical depression is anticipated later today or tonight [1]. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring this system across both the Northeast Pacific and Central Pacific basins, specifically east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands [4][5][1]. If EP90 intensifies into a hurricane, it would directly contribute to the overall hurricane tally for the 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season [3].
The 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season is forecast to be above-normal. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts 5–13 tropical cyclones with a 70% probability for the season, driven by expected El Niño conditions [2][6][3]. As of August 18, 2026, the Central Pacific basin has already experienced 2 named storms and 2 hurricanes [3]. Should EP90 develop into a hurricane, it would increase these existing seasonal counts [3]. Prediction markets are actively tracking the likelihood of reaching various hurricane count thresholds [3][7][8].
Sources (8)
- 1Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook (text)nhc.noaa.gov
- 22026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 32026 Central Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 4RAL | Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project | Real-Time Guidance | DISTURBANCE INVEST 90 (EP90)hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu
- 5NOAA NWS National Hurricane Centerfacebook.com
- 62026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 7Central Pacific Hurricanes Over 5 2026 Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 8Will there be more than 1 hurricane of category 3 or above in the Central Pacific in 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
9. How do the 2026 Central Pacific season forecasts from NOAA compare with those from other major models, such as the ECMWF?
| NOAA Above-Normal Season Probability | 70% [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| NOAA Tropical Cyclone Forecast | 5-13 tropical cyclones [1][2][3][4] |
| AccuWeather Named Storms Forecast | 4-7 named storms [5][6] |
NOAA predicts an above-normal 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season. The 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season outlook from NOAA projected a 70% probability of an above-normal season, anticipating 5-13 tropical cyclones [1][2][3][4]. This forecast was primarily influenced by the development of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event [1][7][2][8][9].
Other models also project an active Central Pacific hurricane season. AccuWeather, for instance, similarly predicted an active season for the Central Pacific, forecasting 4-7 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes [5][6]. AccuWeather's outlook also cited exceptionally warm ocean waters and prevailing El Niño conditions as key contributing factors [5][6]. While industry reports referenced ECMWF data as supporting an expectation of above-normal activity, ECMWF does not issue seasonal hurricane counts in the same explicit format as NOAA [5][6][10][11][12]. Instead, ECMWF provides tropical storm frequency and density anomaly forecasts, along with ensemble-based probabilities and qualitative density maps [5][6][10][11][12].
Sources (12)
- 12026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 22026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 32026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookpreview.weather.gov
- 42026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookpreview.weather.gov
- 52026 North Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookpolestarglobal.com
- 6Elevated Risk of Tropical Impacts for Hawaii, Southern California and Mexico This Pacific Hurricane Seasonaccuweather.com
- 720260530 - Be Ready Manoa (45 min)bereadymanoa.org
- 8Hawaiʻi urged to prepare for intense El Niño hurricane season | Hawai'i Public Radiohawaiipublicradio.org
- 9NOAA Releases 2026 Hurricane Season Outlooks; Bad News for Hawaii, Better News for East Coastweatherboy.com
- 10ECMWF | Chartscharts.ecmwf.int
- 11Section 8.2.7 Tropical Storm Output - Forecast User Guide - ECMWF Confluence Wikiconfluence.ecmwf.int
- 12ECMWF | Chartscharts.ecmwf.int
10. With two hurricanes already formed by August 2026, what do historical analogs suggest for the remainder of the season's activity?
| Chance of above-normal season | 70% (National Weather Service) [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Forecasted hurricanes for 2026 | 2-4 (AccuWeather) [4] |
| Probability of >1 hurricane by Dec 1 | 88% (Prediction markets) [5][6][7] |
Forecasters anticipate an above-normal Central Pacific hurricane season in 2026. This outlook is largely influenced by strong El Niño conditions [1][2][3]. The National Weather Service estimates a 70% probability of an above-normal season, projecting a total of 5 to 13 tropical cyclones for the Central Pacific basin. AccuWeather's specific forecast indicates 2 to 4 hurricanes for the region this year [4].
The Central Pacific has already seen two hurricanes by mid-August. As of August 18, 2026, the basin had recorded two named storms and two hurricanes [8]. Hurricane Lala was recently active from August 13-18, with the National Hurricane Center issuing advisories for it as of August 20, 2026 [9]. Prediction markets further suggest an 88% probability that the total count of Central Pacific hurricanes will exceed one, and a 62% probability that it will exceed two by December 1, 2026 [5][6][7].
Sources (9)
- 12026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 22026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 32026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookpreview.weather.gov
- 4Elevated Risk of Tropical Impacts for Hawaii, Southern California and Mexico This Pacific Hurricane Seasonaccuweather.com
- 5Central Pacific Hurricanes Over 5 2026 Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 6How many Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? — Cuotas y análisis de Kalshi | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7How Kalshi Settles Hurricanes - The 7 Oraclespredictionmarketspicks.com
- 82026 Central Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 9National Hurricane Center - NOAAnhc.noaa.gov
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The primary catalyst for the 2026 Central Pacific hurricane season was the presence of a developing El Niño, which drove forecasts for an above-normal, more active season [1][2][3][4]. NOAA's seasonal outlook predicted an above-normal season, projecting 5 to 13 tropical cyclones with a 70% chance of exceeding normal activity, driven by expected moderate or stronger El Niño conditions [5][1][2][6]. AccuWeather independently forecasted 4–7 named storms and 2–4 hurricanes for the region [7].
As of August 20, 2026, the Central Pacific basin has recorded 2 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane [8]. One of these, Lala, had reached hurricane strength as of August 18, 2026 [9]. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the basin stood at 17.4 units as of August 20, 2026, marking a 70% increase above the 1991-2020 normal [8].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: December 08, 2026
- Closes: December 01, 2026
Sources (9)
- 1NOAA Releases 2026 Hurricane Season Outlooks; Bad News for Hawaii, Better News for East Coastweatherboy.com
- 2Hawaiʻi urged to prepare for intense El Niño hurricane season | Hawai'i Public Radiohawaiipublicradio.org
- 3Central North Pacific tropical cyclone seasons during strong El Nino events.maukashowers.com
- 42026 North Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookpolestarglobal.com
- 52026 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Outlookweather.gov
- 620260530 - Be Ready Manoa (45 min)bereadymanoa.org
- 7Elevated Risk of Tropical Impacts for Hawaii, Southern California and Mexico This Pacific Hurricane Seasonaccuweather.com
- 82026 Central Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
- 92026 Central Pacific Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 11 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 11 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHURRICANE-26JUN30CPACMAJ-9: NO (Jul 01, 2026)
- KXHURRICANE-26JUN30CPACMAJ-8: NO (Jul 01, 2026)
- KXHURRICANE-26JUN30CPACMAJ-7: NO (Jul 01, 2026)
- KXHURRICANE-26JUN30CPACMAJ-6: NO (Jul 01, 2026)
- KXHURRICANE-26JUN30CPACMAJ-5: NO (Jul 01, 2026)
