Topic tracker · Climate and Weather

Hurricanes

Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 3 so far (3 live) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Hurricanes markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.

Last updated September 30, 2026

Live markets

How many Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? Kalshi

Above 12

Market Model 41.0% 18.5%

Above 9

Market Model 64.0% 49.4%

6.6K contracts Refresh

How many major Eastern Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? Kalshi

Above 6

Market Model 33.0% 32.3%

Above 4

Market Model 54.0% 57.2%

2.8K contracts Refresh

How many Central Pacific hurricanes will there be this year? Kalshi

Above 4

Market Model 74.0% 78.7%

Above 2

Market Model 82.0% 85.0%

3.6K contracts Refresh

Hurricanes

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