Short Answer

Hurricane Isaias is not expected to cross Alabama before December 31, 2026; the market prices this outcome at 2.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

Official reports that Hurricane Isaias had weakened to a post-tropical cyclone drove an 89.0 percentage point drop on October 10. While the storm’s center did cross Alabama, its failure to maintain the required 74 mph sustained wind speed effectively resolved the market to 'No'. The price action shows the market correctly distinguished between the storm's path and its strength, the two key conditions for resolution.
Leading up to the event, price spikes tracked official forecasts of the hurricane's trajectory. The market jumped 77.0 points on October 7 as advisories solidified Isaias's path toward the state. This conviction grew on October 9 when announcements from the Alabama Emergency Management Agency and National Hurricane Center confirmed the forecast, pushing the price up another 24.0 points. A 9.0 percentage point drop on October 8 does not coincide with any reported developments.
  • Since last update (~24h): Model probability dropped by 4.7pp, compressing the edge by 3.7pp to 0.0pp (model-led).
  • Market probability also decreased by 1.0pp, aligning with the model at 2.0%.
  • Before Dec 31, 2026 is unlikely; NHC advisory October 10 confirmed rapid weakening.
  • Before Dec 31, 2026 is improbable; Isaias weakened significantly faster inland.
  • Before Dec 31, 2026 is low; only Sally (2020) maintained hurricane winds in Alabama.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Dec 31, 2026 2.0% 2.0% Hurricane Isaias's trajectory may shift within the multi-year forecast window, potentially crossing Alabama.

Current Context

Hurricane Isaias crossed Alabama October 10-11, 2026, but not at hurricane strength. National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts explicitly showed Hurricane Isaias moving across Alabama, with advisories placing its center near 32.8°N, 86.8°W (50 miles south of Birmingham) and later near 35.4°N, 85.9°W (70 miles northeast of Huntsville) [1][2][3]. Isaias had maximum sustained winds of 110 mph on October 9 and 90 mph later that night, exceeding the 74 mph threshold for hurricane strength [4][5]. However, the storm weakened to a post-tropical cyclone by October 10, reporting maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, and further to 25 mph by October 11 [2][3]. Consequently, Isaias geographically traversed Alabama but did not retain hurricane-force sustained winds at its center during this passage [2][3].
Prediction market odds reflect specific settlement rules requiring sustained hurricane-force winds. The market's stated rule requires an official NHC track segment to intersect Alabama, alongside two consecutive advisories within 12 hours reporting sustained winds of at least 74 mph [6][7]. This definition is more stringent than a general storm crossing or hurricane-force gusts within the state. On October 11, "Yes" probabilities for this contract stood between 4% and 7%, with "No" probabilities ranging from 93% to 97%, depending on the data source and timestamp [6][8][7]. These odds reflect the contract's specialized settlement rules, not a broader meteorological assessment [6][7]. Current reporting on October 11 described Isaias as post-tropical and moving away from Alabama, with no expectation of another qualifying Alabama crossing under the market's specific criteria [9][10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.public.014.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
  2. 2Post-Tropical Cyclone ISAIAS (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  3. 3Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisorynhc.noaa.gov
  4. 4Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussionnhc.noaa.gov
  5. 5Hurricane ISAIAS (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  6. 6Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  7. 7Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026 odds: 5% chance on Kalshi · PredictDeskpredictdesk.vercel.app
  8. 8Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026?coinstats.app
  9. 9Isaias: East sees chance of flooding, winds, and tornadoesweather.com
  10. 10Isaias Moves Out as Near-Recor...alabamaweathernetwork.com
  11. 11Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Tracker (2026)storms.report

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📉 October 10, 2026: 89.0pp drop

Price decreased from 90.0% to 1.0%

Outcome: Before Dec 31, 2026

What happened: The primary driver of the 89.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market on October 10, 2026, was likely the official reporting that Hurricane Isaias had significantly weakened to a post-tropical cyclone [1][2][3]. Although the storm was actively moving across Alabama on this date [1][4][5], market participants may have strictly interpreted "Hurricane Isaias" in the market title to imply the storm needed to maintain hurricane strength throughout its traverse of the state. News of its downgrade to a post-tropical cyclone, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph, likely caused the perceived probability of this specific interpretation of the "yes" outcome to plummet [1][2][3]. No social media activity was identified as a driver in the provided information, thus it was irrelevant.

📈 October 09, 2026: 24.0pp spike

Price increased from 62.0% to 86.0%

Outcome: Before Dec 31, 2026

What happened: The primary driver of the 24.0 percentage point price spike was traditional news and official announcements concerning Hurricane Isaias's trajectory. On October 09, 2026, the Alabama Emergency Management Agency announced that Isaias was forecast to move through the state, while a National Hurricane Center advisory stated the hurricane was expected to move across Alabama into the Tennessee Valley [6][4]. These co-timed official reports provided strong confirmation that the hurricane would cross Alabama, directly fulfilling the market's "before Dec 31, 2026" outcome condition. Social media was irrelevant, as no related activity was found.

📉 October 08, 2026: 9.0pp drop

Price decreased from 74.0% to 65.0%

Outcome: Before Dec 31, 2026

What happened: The provided information does not contain any social media activity that explains the 9.0 percentage point drop in the "Before Dec 31, 2026" outcome on October 08, 2026. Official forecasts from October 9, 2026, already projected Hurricane Isaias to cross Alabama on October 10, 2026, which subsequently occurred [6][7][8][5]. The market movement therefore appears to have been contrary to the imminent and confirmed event, potentially reflecting market inefficiency or mispricing, as evidenced by the market still reporting low "Yes" probability even after the event's occurrence [9]. Based on the available sources, social media was irrelevant as a primary driver for this price move.

📈 October 07, 2026: 77.0pp spike

Price increased from 1.0% to 78.0%

Outcome: Before Dec 31, 2026

What happened: The primary driver of the 77.0 percentage point price spike on October 07, 2026, was likely increasing certainty from official weather forecasts and advisories regarding Hurricane Isaias's path. While specific announcements for October 7th are not detailed, the Alabama Emergency Management Agency (EMA) and National Hurricane Center (NHC) subsequently confirmed on October 10th that Isaias was moving into and across Alabama [6][1]. This post-event confirmation strongly suggests that earlier, increasingly confident forecasts indicating an Alabama crossing precipitated the market movement before the actual event [6][10][1][4]. Social media activity cannot be identified as a primary driver, as no relevant information is available in the provided sources.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Post-Tropical Cyclone ISAIAS (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  2. 210.08.2026 4.40 PM CDT - Archived Briefingweather.gov
  3. 3Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisorynhc.noaa.gov
  4. 4https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.public.014.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
  5. 5Isaias fizzles out as it crosses Alabama; rain, winds continue - WVTMwvtm13.com
  6. 6Major Hurricane Isaias Making Landfall This Evening – Alabama Emergency Management Agency (EMA)ema.alabama.gov
  7. 7Hurricane Isaias Public Advisory (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  8. 8Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussionnhc.noaa.gov
  9. 9Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  10. 10Isaias Winds Increasing With Widespread Damage Likely – Alabama Emergency Management Agency (EMA)ema.alabama.gov

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "YES" if Hurricane Isaias crosses Alabama. Conversely, it resolves to "NO" if the hurricane does not cross Alabama. The deadline for this event is before the end of the year, with the specific cut-off date noted as December 30, 2026, which is the maximum payout date.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Dec 31, 2026 $0.06 $0.98 2%

Market Discussion

As of October 11, 2026, Hurricane Isaias had already crossed Alabama, with the Alabama EMA stating on October 9 that it would remain a hurricane into south-central Alabama, and AP reporting on October 10 that it moved north through the state after landfall [1]. National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts on October 9 also placed Isaias inland within Alabama on October 10, consistent with a track through the state [2]. This outcome aligns with market definitions requiring an official NHC track segment to intersect Alabama, despite some contemporaneous prediction market snapshots showing a low probability for "Yes" on October 10-11 [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Major Hurricane Isaias Making Landfall This Evening – Alabama Emergency Management Agency (EMA)ema.alabama.gov
  2. 2Hurricane Isaias Forecast Discussionnhc.noaa.gov
  3. 3Will Isaias make landfall in Alabama as a hurricane? — 42% YES · WyldMarketswyldmarkets.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 76 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score94Strong
Trade quality20% of score4Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score76Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
95Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
4Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

1 contract

Before Dec 31, 20264
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
76Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

1 contract

Before Dec 31, 202676
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Before Dec 31, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
4Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 4 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 7.8c slippage (~312% of a 2.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before Dec 31, 20264Market scoreLiquidity4Move quality76Rule clarity100
Why 4
Liquidity
4 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
76 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 22, 2026

6. What specific NHC data release on October 10, 2026, was the primary catalyst for this market's price collapse from 90% to 1%?

Critical AdvisoryNHC/WPC Forecast/Advisory No. 16 (October 10, 2026, 1500 UTC) [1][2]
Isaias ReclassificationPost-tropical and inland over Alabama (Advisory No. 16) [1][2]
Market Price DropFrom ~90% (Oct 9) to 1-4% (Oct 10) [3][4]
The market collapse stemmed from a critical October 10 advisory. The price collapse was primarily triggered by the NHC/WPC Forecast/Advisory No. 16, issued on October 10, 2026, at 1500 UTC [1][2]. This advisory reclassified Isaias as a post-tropical and inland system, positioning its center over Alabama. Crucially, the maximum sustained winds were reported at only 30 knots (approximately 35 mph), which was significantly below the 74-mph hurricane threshold required for the market's specific conditions [1][2]. Subsequent advisories on October 10 and 11 further confirmed these diminished wind speeds [5][6][2].
Market records show a sharp decline correlating with this advisory. Market data indicates that positions for "YES" traded near 90% on October 9 before collapsing to approximately 1–4% on October 10 [3][4]. This timing directly correlates with the release of the October 10 advisory that declared Isaias post-tropical and inland [3][4]. The market's collapse was not simply due to a forecast track shifting away from Alabama; rather, the October 10 advisory established that Isaias had already traversed Alabama as a weak post-tropical system, thus failing to meet the market's stipulation for a hurricane-strength track with at least 74 mph sustained winds [7][1].
Sources (7)
  1. 1https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.fstadv.016.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
  2. 2Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussionnhc.noaa.gov
  3. 3Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  4. 4Hurricanes Odds on Kalshi Today: 53 Open Markets | Kalshi Viewkalshiview.com
  5. 5https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.public.018.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
  6. 6https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/102037.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
  7. 7Scan: Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026? — Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai

7. How accurate were the National Hurricane Center's initial track forecasts for Isaias issued October 7-8, 2026, compared to the storm's actual path?

NHC Track Forecast AccuracyOctober 8 guidance largely accurate and closely aligned with actual path [1][2][3][4][5]
NHC Intensity ForecastDirectionally good, anticipating hurricane strength [3][5][6][7]
Observed Storm OutcomeCrossed Alabama and exceeded hurricane strength threshold (105 kt peak) [8][9][10][11]
The National Hurricane Center initial forecasts demonstrated strong accuracy for Isaias. The initial track forecasts for Hurricane Isaias, issued on October 7-8, 2026, were highly accurate, with the guidance from October 8, in particular, closely aligning with the storm's actual path [1][2][3][4][5]. Furthermore, the intensity forecasts were directionally good, successfully anticipating hurricane strength [3][5][6][7].
October 7 forecasts correctly predicted an east-northeast turn and northward path. Initial NHC guidance on October 7, 2026, correctly predicted an east-northeast turn, strengthening to hurricane intensity, and a northward track toward the northern Gulf Coast [12][1]. By October 8, advisories placed the storm on a path toward the Alabama–Florida Gulf Coast and then inland Alabama [2][3][4]. The observed path closely matched this October 8 guidance, with the storm's center later moving across Alabama [7][8][9][11].
Intensity forecasts closely matched observed peak winds and inland weakening. Intensity forecasts from October 8 predicted 90–95 kt before landfall and 50–65 kt inland [3][5][6][7]. The storm ultimately peaked at 105 kt in the Gulf and registered 80 kt at 0300 UTC on October 10, before weakening inland [3][5][6][7]. For the prediction market, the outcome was effectively 'Yes,' as Isaias moved across Alabama and exceeded the hurricane threshold of sustained winds of at least 74 mph [8][9][10][11].
Sources (12)
  1. 1https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.fstadv.007.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
  2. 2Tropical Storm Isaias Forecast Advisorynhc.noaa.gov
  3. 3Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisorynhc.noaa.gov
  4. 4Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisorynhc.noaa.gov
  5. 5Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisorynhc.noaa.gov
  6. 6Hurricane Isaias Forecast Advisorynhc.noaa.gov
  7. 7https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.fstadv.014.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
  8. 8Post-Tropical Cyclone ISAIAS (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  9. 9Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisorynhc.noaa.gov
  10. 10Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  11. 11Remnants Of Isaias Weakening, But Some Impacts Continueema.alabama.gov
  12. 12https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.fstadv.003.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov

8. How did Hurricane Isaias's rate of weakening over land in October 2026 compare to that of other major Alabama hurricanes like Ivan (2004)?

Isaias weakening rateApproximately 55 mph decline in 6 hours [1][2]
Isaias initial inland wind90 mph over western Florida Panhandle (10:00 PM CDT Oct 9) [3][4][1][2]
Ivan landfall wind speed105 kt (about 121 mph) near Gulf Shores, Alabama [5][6][7][8]
Hurricane Isaias weakened significantly faster than Ivan immediately after moving inland. Isaias crossed Alabama in October 2026, experiencing a rapid decline in wind speeds. At 10:00 PM CDT on October 9, over the western Florida Panhandle, Isaias had maximum sustained winds near 90 mph [3][4][1][2]. Six hours later, by 4:00 AM CDT on October 10, over central Alabama, its winds had decreased to 35 mph, leading to its classification as a post-tropical cyclone [3][4][1][2]. This observed weakening represents a decline of approximately 55 mph in about 6 hours, averaging roughly 9.2 mph per hour [1][2].
Hurricane Ivan, stronger at landfall, experienced a more gradual weakening. In contrast, Hurricane Ivan (2004) was considerably more intense at Alabama landfall, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 105 kt (about 121 mph) just west of Gulf Shores, Alabama, around 0650 UTC on September 16 [5][6][7][8]. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) characterized Ivan's weakening as gradual both before and after landfall [5][8]. While Ivan's strength did significantly decrease over multiple days inland, its initial weakening rate was not as rapid as Isaias's [5][8].
A direct, precise rate comparison between the two storms is inappropriate. Although Hurricane Isaias's weakening rate over land in October 2026 was significantly faster immediately after moving inland compared to Hurricane Ivan (2004) near Alabama, a precise, "apples-to-apples" rate comparison is not considered appropriate [5][8][1][2]. This is due to various differences between the two storms, including variations in storm size, structure, environmental shear, and measurement timing, making a direct six-hour comparison misleading [5][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.public.014.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
  2. 2https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al09/al092026.fstadv.016.shtmlnhc.noaa.gov
  3. 3Post-Tropical Cyclone ISAIAS (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  4. 4Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisorynhc.noaa.gov
  5. 5Updated 27 May 2005 to revise damage estimate Updated 11 August 2011 to revise damage estimatenhc.noaa.gov
  6. 6Hurricane IVAN (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  7. 7Hurricane IVAN (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  8. 8Hurricane IVAN (text)nhc.noaa.gov

9. What historical data from NOAA and the NHC is available on hurricanes maintaining 74+ mph winds after crossing into Alabama's borders?

Only direct precedentHurricane Sally (2020) [1]
Sally's peak sustained winds over AL109 mph (while center was over or entering Alabama) [1]
Highest observed winds in AL (Sally)98 kt (113 mph) sustained at Ingram Bayou [1]
Hurricane Sally (2020) is the sole hurricane meeting specified criteria in Alabama. Its center maintained 74+ mph winds after crossing into Alabama's borders, making it the only direct precedent identified by NOAA and NHC historical data [1]. While its center was over or entering Alabama, Sally's best-track table showed sustained winds of 75 knots (86 mph) at 0000 UTC on September 16, escalating to 95 knots (109 mph) at 0600 UTC, and then recorded at 85 knots (98 mph) by 1200 UTC. Hurricane-force winds affected extreme southern Alabama, with specific recordings including 98 knots sustained at Ingram Bayou, 87 knots at Fort Morgan, 81 knots at Perdido Pass, and 76 knots at Dauphin Island [1].
Conversely, several other historical events did not meet the criteria for Alabama. Hurricane Katrina (2005) produced a 76 mph sustained wind observation at Dauphin Island, Alabama, but its public advisory does not establish that the storm's center crossed Alabama at 74+ mph [2]. Hurricane Dennis (2005) brought tropical-storm conditions to Alabama after its center crossed the state, falling short of hurricane-force sustained winds [3]. Similarly, Hurricane Nate (2017) moved through Alabama but weakened rapidly, with observations cited in its report below hurricane force [4]. Hurricane Ida (2009) weakened to tropical-storm strength before or around the northern Gulf Coast, and its report does not support a hurricane-strength center crossing Alabama [5]. Furthermore, forecast advisories, such as those for Isaias, are projections and not official historical data, therefore they do not qualify as precedents [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1AL192020_Sallynhc.noaa.gov
  2. 2Hurricane KATRINA (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  3. 3Tropical Cyclone Reportnhc.noaa.gov
  4. 4Hurricane Natenhc.noaa.gov
  5. 5Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Ida (AL112009) 4-10 November 2009 Lixion A. Avila and John Cangialosi National Hurricane Center 14 January 2010nhc.noaa.gov
  6. 6Scan: Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026? — Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai

10. How does the Kalshi market's rule for a 'hurricane crossing' compare with the National Weather Service's standard definition for a tropical cyclone making landfall?

Kalshi Hurricane Intensity RuleRequires advisory track segment at or above 74 mph [1]
Kalshi Geographic Scope RuleAllows any intersection with state polygon, including inland passage [1]
NWS Landfall DefinitionCyclone's surface center intersects a coastline, can be below 74 mph [2][3][4]
Kalshi's 'hurricane crossing' rule differs significantly from the NWS's landfall definition. For market contracts like the Isaias-Alabama agreement, Kalshi's rule is narrower in terms of required intensity but broader geographically. It necessitates an official advisory track segment to indicate winds of at least 74 mph, which is the threshold for hurricane strength. However, it permits any intersection with a state's polygon, including inland passages, for resolution [1][2][3]. This HURPATH rule operates as a track-intersection test, not a conventional landfall test. For the market to resolve "Yes", consecutive National Hurricane Center (NHC) public or forecast advisory coordinates must show hurricane-strength winds (at least 74 mph), and the straight-line segment connecting these coordinates must either intersect or terminate within the specified state. Crucially, the market can resolve "Yes" even if the storm's center does not reach the state's coastline, and unofficial coordinates or post-storm analyses are not considered [1][5].
The National Weather Service defines landfall differently, focusing on the storm's center. In contrast, the NWS/NHC defines tropical cyclone landfall as the moment the cyclone's surface center crosses a coastline [2][3][4]. This definition does not mandate hurricane-force winds; a tropical cyclone can make landfall at tropical-storm strength or lower. Additionally, hurricane-force winds can impact land without the storm's center making landfall [2][3][4]. While the NWS defines a hurricane by a maximum 1-minute sustained surface wind of at least 74 mph, this intensity classification is distinct from the geographical criteria for landfall [6][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Official Product Name: Rulebook:assets.kalshi.com
  2. 2Tropical Definitionsweather.gov
  3. 3NOAA's National Weather Service - Glossarymarine.weather.gov
  4. 4Glossary of NHC Terms (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  5. 5<date> <hurricane> <region> <wind_threshoold> <storm> <wind_threshold> <season> <wind threshold>assets.kalshi.com
  6. 6Department of Commerce • National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration • National Weather Serviceweather.gov
  7. 7SUMMARY OF REVISIONS: This directive supersedes NWS Instruction 10-604, Tropical Cyclone Names and Definitions, dated January 16, 2025. This is an administrative update made only to change all references of "Gulf of Mexico" to "Gulf of America". No content changes were made with this update, and the effective date was not affected.weather.gov

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Hurricane Isaias, active from October 6–10, 2026, reached maximum sustained winds of 105 kt (about 121 mph) [1]. The National Hurricane Center's October 10, 2026 advisory forecast Isaias to move across Alabama later that day and Sunday [2]. While Isaias did cross Alabama as a post-tropical system, it reported only 35 mph maximum sustained winds at 4:00 a.m. CDT on October 10, 2026, after weakening [3][2][4]. A reported 75 mph gust near Orange Beach is not equivalent to 74 mph sustained winds, failing to meet the market's defined wind speed threshold [4][5].
The prediction market rule requires an official NHC track segment intersecting Alabama where both consecutive advisories report sustained winds of at least 74 mph, with advisories no more than 12 hours apart and coordinates rounded to 0.1 degrees [6]. The observed wind speeds during Isaias's transit across Alabama did not meet this criterion [3][2][4]. PredictDesk displayed a 7% Yes and 93% No price on October 11, 2026, with $68.6K total volume, indicating market consensus on the outcome prior to the December 31, 2026, close date [6]. The market's deadline does not change the already observed storm facts [7][8].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 07, 2027
  • Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 12026 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonnhc.noaa.gov
  2. 2Post-Tropical Cyclone ISAIAS (text)nhc.noaa.gov
  3. 3National Hurricane Center - NOAAnhc.noaa.gov
  4. 4Isaias: East sees chance of flooding, winds, and tornadoesweather.com
  5. 5Isaias Moves Out as Near-Recor...alabamaweathernetwork.com
  6. 6Will Hurricane Isaias cross Alabama before Dec 31, 2026 odds: 5% chance on Kalshi · PredictDeskpredictdesk.vercel.app
  7. 7NOAA maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationnoaa.gov
  8. 8https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml?names=nhc.noaa.gov

13. Related News

-89.0pp
Last updated: October 11, 2026, 12:13 UTC

Isaias Downgrade Crushes Odds of Alabama Hurricane Crossing

The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) reclassification of Isaias as a post-tropical cyclone early Saturday (October 10, 2026) caused prediction market odds for the storm crossing Alabama as a hurrican...