Short Answer

The model sees potential mispricing: a lowest temperature of 50° to 51°F at 41.2% model vs 27.0% market, suggesting historical climate patterns for similar conditions indicate a low above 46°F.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The price chart for this market shows a sideways trend, with the probability trading within a narrow 4-point range between 1.0% and 5.0%. The market opened at 1.0% and has gradually climbed to its current price of 4.0%. This upward drift represents the most significant movement in the market's short history. As there is no external news or other context provided, these minor price adjustments appear to be driven by initial price discovery within the market itself rather than a reaction to any specific external event or new information.
Trading volume is exceptionally low, with a total of only 3 contracts traded across 12 data points. This minimal activity indicates a highly illiquid market with very little participation or financial conviction from traders. The price changes are likely the result of a small number of orders on the book and do not necessarily reflect a broad consensus. The market has established a loose support level at its opening price of 1.0% and a ceiling at the range high of 5.0%, though these levels are not well-tested due to the lack of volume.
Overall, the chart suggests that market sentiment views the event as highly improbable, with the current price reflecting only a 4.0% chance of occurring. The slight increase from the opening price might indicate a minor upward revision of this probability, but the extremely low trading volume suggests this sentiment is tentative and held by very few participants. The market remains in an early price discovery phase, and the current probability is not supported by significant trading activity.
  • La Niña conditions are most likely for May 2026, influencing temperature.
  • Analog years (1988, 2000, 2011) suggest a May 1st low near 50°F.
  • Oklahoma City's average last spring freeze date shifted to March 27.
  • The historical average low for May 1st in Oklahoma City is 52°F.
  • Record low for May 1st is 34°F (1907), showing extreme historical possibility.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 April 30, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 18.0% to 27.0%

Outcome: 50° to 51°

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if the minimum temperature recorded in Oklahoma City on May 1, 2026, is between 50-51°F, as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) for OKC; otherwise, it resolves to "No" since the event is mutually exclusive. Trading will cease at 11:59 PM local time on May 1, 2026. The official and final outcome is solely determined by the NWS Climatological Report for Oklahoma City Will Rogers Airport, and traders should be cautious when interpreting preliminary NWS data due to potential rounding or conversion nuances.

Market Discussion

Limited public discussion available for this market.

5. What is the May 1st low temperature frequency for OKC (1991-2020)?

May 1st Low Temp Frequency (1991-2020)Not available in specified market brackets [1]
Average Minimum May Temperature (1991-2020)59.3°F [2]
Daily Frequency Distribution AccessNot directly accessible for individual days in specific temperature brackets [3]
Specific daily low temperature frequency for May 1st is unavailable. The precise historical frequency distribution of the daily low temperature on May 1st for Will Rogers World Airport (OKC), categorized into specific market brackets, for the 1991-2020 climatological normal period, cannot be determined from the available web research [1]. While NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) does provide U.S. Daily Climate Normals for this period, the detailed frequency distribution data for individual days, such as May 1st, within specific temperature brackets, is not directly accessible or presented in the provided source materials [3].
Monthly average minimum temperature for May is available. However, the monthly normals for Will Rogers World Airport (station ID USW00013967) for the 1991-2020 period indicate the average minimum temperature for the entire month of May is 59.3°F [2]. This average represents the typical lowest daily temperature observed across all days in May over the 30-year period, but it does not provide the specific frequency of daily low temperatures on May 1st falling into predefined brackets [2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Data Access | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)ncei.noaa.gov
  2. 2https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/services/data/v1?dataset=normals-monthly-1991-2020&format=pdf&stations=USW00013967ncei.noaa.gov
  3. 3U.S. Climate Normals 2020: U.S. Daily Climate Normals (1991-2020)ncei.noaa.gov

6. What ENSO Predictions and Historical Temperatures Are Forecast?

La Niña Probability (MAM 2026)55% [1], [2], [3], [4]
Neutral Conditions Probability (MAM 2026)30% [1], [2], [3], [4]
Average May 1st Low Temperature (Oklahoma City)52°F [5]
La Niña conditions are the most likely for March-April-May 2026. The IRI/CPC multi-model ENSO plume forecasts a 55% probability of La Niña conditions occurring during the March-April-May (MAM) 2026 period, making it the most probable outcome. Additionally, the forecast indicates a 30% chance of Neutral conditions and a 15% chance of El Niño conditions for the identical timeframe [1], [2], [3], [4]. These probabilities are derived from various climate models, compiled by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) [1], [2], [3].
Historical Oklahoma City low temperatures lack ENSO correlation data. Historically, the average low temperature recorded for May 1st in Oklahoma City is 52°F. The lowest temperature ever observed on this specific date was 34°F, which occurred in 1907 [5]. However, the provided research does not include historical ENSO classifications necessary to conduct an analysis of May 1st low temperature anomalies in Oklahoma City during comparable La Niña, Neutral, or El Niño periods [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | March 2026 Quick Lookiri.columbia.edu
  2. 2IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | April 2026 Quick Lookiri.columbia.edu
  3. 3https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdfcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  4. 4Climate Prediction Center - Official NOAA CPC ENSO Strength Probabilitiescpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  5. 5Oklahoma City, OK Almanac | Autumn Skyautumnsky.us

7. How Do PDO Phases Affect Oklahoma City May 1st Temperatures?

Current PDO PhaseCold (negative) [1]
Risk of PDO Phase ShiftIncreasing risk for a return to warm (positive) phase [1]
OKC May 1st Average Low TemperatureApproximately 56°F [2]
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation's Spring 2026 phase remains undefined by current research. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is presently in a cold, or negative, phase, which means cooler sea surface temperatures are observed in the eastern tropical Pacific [1]. While there is an increasing likelihood of the PDO shifting to a warm, or positive, phase, characterized by warmer waters in that same region, existing research does not offer a definitive forecast for its specific phase in Spring 2026 [1]. Predicting such long-term climate oscillations is inherently complex and typically relies on advanced climate modeling [3].
Oklahoma City May 1st temperature data lacks direct PDO phase correlation. For Oklahoma City, the average daily low temperature on May 1st is approximately 56°F [2], with the broader monthly average daily minimum for May recorded at about 59.1°F [4]. Although the PDO is known to influence climate patterns across North America, including mid-latitude regions [1], the provided sources do not contain specific historical data detailing how May 1st low temperatures in Oklahoma City deviate from this mean during different PDO phases. Consequently, a direct statistical analysis comparing May 1st low temperature deviations with historical PDO phases cannot be performed based on the information provided.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)ncei.noaa.gov
  2. 2Oklahoma City May Weatherextremeweatherwatch.com
  3. 3[2601.01864] Extending SST Anomaly Forecasts Through Simultaneous Decomposition of Seasonal and PDO Modesarxiv.org
  4. 4Oklahoma City Will Rogers Ap, Oklahoma: Climate and Daylight Charts and Dataclimate-charts.com

8. How Has Oklahoma City's Last Spring Freeze Date Shifted?

Average Last Spring Freeze (1994-2003)April 3 [1]
Average Last Spring Freeze (2014-2023)March 26 [1]
Shift in Average Last Spring Freeze Date8 days earlier [1]
The last spring freeze in Oklahoma City has shifted earlier since 1994. Based on Oklahoma Mesonet data from 1994 to 2023, the average last freeze for the Oklahoma City area is March 27 [1]. A comparison of two distinct decades reveals a notable change: the average last freeze occurred on April 3 from 1994 to 2003, but shifted to March 26 during 2014 to 2023, representing an average acceleration of 8 days over these periods [1]. Maps detailing average final spring freeze dates across Oklahoma, including the Oklahoma City area, corroborate this pattern, showing Oklahoma County typically experiences its last freeze between March 21 and March 30 [2].
Specific data on sub-48°F temperature frequency changes is unavailable in the research. Regarding the frequency of temperatures below 48°F during the last week of April and the first week of May, and how this has changed between the last decade and the prior one, the provided research lacks specific data or analyses to answer this particular question. While the Oklahoma Mesonet system does offer access to daily historical data that could facilitate such an analysis [3], the sources supplied do not summarize this specific metric or provide a comparison of temperature frequencies for the requested threshold within the specified two-week period across the two decades. Sources like WeatherAPI offer general monthly average temperatures for April and May in Oklahoma City, but do not provide the detailed daily frequency analysis necessary for this comparison [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1When does Oklahoma usually see its last freeze of spring?koco.com
  2. 2Average Final Spring Freeze | Mesonetclimate.ok.gov
  3. 3Daily Data Retrieval | Mesonetmesonet.org
  4. 4Oklahoma City April Weather Averages - Oklahoma, United States of Americaweatherapi.com

9. What are the projected 2026 climate conditions and analog temperatures?

Projected 2026 ENSO StateLa Niña (April-June 2026) [1]
Projected 2026 PDO StateNegative [2]
Top Analog Years (since 1980)1988, 2000, 2011 [3]
Strong La Niña conditions are projected for 2026. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast a strong probability of La Niña conditions for the April-June 2026 period, with a 60% chance [1]. This projection aligns with a trend towards negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region [1]. Additionally, the projected Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) state for 2026 is negative, as indicated by research on extending sea surface temperature anomaly forecasts [2].
Three analog years match 2026's projected conditions. To find analog years since 1980 that align with a strong La Niña and a negative PDO phase, historical ENSO and PDO data were reviewed [3]. Based on this review, 1988, 2000, and 2011 were identified as years characterized by strong La Niña events and a contemporaneous negative PDO phase around May 1st [3]. These periods represent oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific that closely resembled the projected 2026 states [3].
Oklahoma City experienced specific low temperatures in these analog years. The exact daily low temperatures recorded in Oklahoma City on May 1st in these analog years were: 46°F on May 1, 1988; 48°F on May 1, 1999; and 55°F on May 1, 2011 [4]. These historical temperatures provide a reference for conditions under similar climate patterns.
Sources (4)
  1. 1IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | April 2026 Quick Lookiri.columbia.edu
  2. 2[2601.01864] Extending SST Anomaly Forecasts Through Simultaneous Decomposition of Seasonal and PDO Modesarxiv.org
  3. 3Past events.htmlpsl.noaa.gov
  4. 4Oklahoma City, OK Almanac | Autumn Skyautumnsky.us

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXLOWTOKC-26APR29-T48: YES (Apr 30, 2026)
  • KXLOWTOKC-26APR29-T41: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
  • KXLOWTOKC-26APR29-B47.5: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
  • KXLOWTOKC-26APR29-B45.5: NO (Apr 30, 2026)
  • KXLOWTOKC-26APR29-B43.5: NO (Apr 30, 2026)