Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect 86° to 87° as the highest temperature in New Orleans on May 13, 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has demonstrated a sideways trend with minimal volatility, trading within a very narrow price band between 5.0% and 7.0%. After an initial price of 7.0%, the market has settled at 5.0%, reflecting a slight downward drift. Overall trading volume is extremely low at just 155 contracts, with some price changes occurring on zero volume. This pattern suggests very low market participation and a lack of conviction from traders, meaning the current price may not reflect a broad consensus. The persistently low probability indicates that market sentiment is strongly bearish on the prospect of a "YES" outcome.
The price action appears disconnected from the provided context. Weather forecasts from the National Weather Service and another source indicate an expected high temperature of 86°F to 88°F, which would lead to a "YES" resolution for this market. However, the price has not responded to this information and remains at a low of 5.0%. This divergence suggests that the few active traders may be skeptical of long-range weather forecasts or are not aware of the available data. The limited trading has established a weak resistance level near 7.0% and support at the current price of 5.0%, though these levels are not well-defined due to the lack of activity.
  • Consensus forecasts predict a high of 88°F for New Orleans on May 13, 2026.
  • AccuWeather's May 2026 outlook indicates highs generally within 82–92°F.
  • New Orleans' May 13th historical high temperatures appear to be increasing.
  • The 1991-2020 normal high for May 13 in New Orleans is 85°F.
  • A "Super El Niño summer" in 2026 could bring above-normal temperatures.

Current Context

Forecasts predict New Orleans' high temperature on May 13, 2026. Current weather forecasts indicate the highest temperature for New Orleans on May 13, 2026, will be around 86°F according to the National Weather Service [1]. Another forecast source places the predicted high at 88°F for the same date [2].
Monthly outlooks suggest consistent high temperatures in May. Broader forecasts for May 2026 suggest that daily high temperatures in New Orleans around this date will generally range from the low- to mid-80s [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  2. 2Wednesday, May 13, 2026. New Orleans, LA - Weather Forecastweathershogun.com
  3. 3New Orleans, LA Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 12, 2026: 11.0pp spike

Price increased from 32.0% to 43.0%

Outcome: 84° to 85°

What happened: The provided web research lacks any information regarding social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that occurred on May 12, 2026. Therefore, it is not possible to identify social media as a primary driver or contributing accelerant for the 11.0 percentage point spike in the "84° to 85°" outcome. While the climate normal high for mid-May in New Orleans is approximately 85°F [1], other forecasts for May 13, 2026, include highs of 88°F [2] and upper 80s [3], or an hourly peak near 83°F [4]. Without specific details on events coinciding with the movement, the cause remains undetermined.
Sources (4)
  1. 1IEM:: CLI from NWS LIXmesonet.agron.iastate.edu
  2. 2Wednesday, May 13, 2026. New Orleans, LA - Weather Forecastweathershogun.com
  3. 3Temperatures will hit 90s for first time this seasonfox8live.com
  4. 4New Orleans, LA Hourly Weather Forecast: May 13, 2026 | WeatherBugweatherbug.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if New Orleans' maximum temperature on May 13, 2026, is exactly 84-85°F, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily); otherwise, it resolves to "No." The last trading time is 11:59 PM local time on May 13, 2026. Traders must solely rely on the specified NWS report for resolution, as preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances.

Market Discussion

A weather forecast for New Orleans on May 13, 2026, projects a daytime high of 88°F [1]. This temperature is slightly above the 1991–2020 May climate normal for the area, which averages around 85–86°F [2]. While similar highest temperature markets are available for other cities like Atlanta, NYC, and Chicago for May 13, a specific market for New Orleans was not confirmed in the retrieved web results [3].

Sources (3)
  1. 1Wednesday, May 13, 2026. New Orleans, LA - Weather Forecastweathershogun.com
  2. 2NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge New 30 Year Climate Normals (1991-2020)weather.gov
  3. 3Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 13? Trading Odds & Predictions (May 13, 2026) | Polymarketpolymarket.com

5. What role might sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of Mexico during Spring 2026 play in affecting New Orleans' daily high?

Gulf of Mexico SSTs late April 2026significant warmth [1]
New Orleans forecast high May 13, 202688°F [2]
New Orleans May 2026 monthly high range82-92°F, average 89°F [3]
Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures may influence New Orleans' spring temperatures. As of late April 2026, the Gulf of Mexico is experiencing significant warmth [1]. This warmth could affect New Orleans' daily high temperatures by introducing a 1-2.5°C cooling effect via sea breeze fronts and increasing humidity. These elevated sea surface temperatures are also linked to a greater potential for severe weather, attributed to moist return flow [4].
Prior observations and future forecasts suggest typical May temperatures. In Spring 2025, Gulf of Mexico SSTs were notable for persistent warm Loop Current eddies [5]. Looking ahead, the projected high temperature for New Orleans on May 13, 2026, is 88°F [2]. Broader monthly forecasts for May 2026 anticipate daily high temperatures ranging from 82-92°F, with an average high of 89°F [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Gulf... - Facebookfacebook.com
  2. 2Wednesday, May 13, 2026. New Orleans, LA - Weather Forecastweathershogun.com
  3. 3New Orleans, LA Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
  4. 4Surface Thermodynamic Gradients Associated with Gulf of Mexico Sea-Breeze Frontsonlinelibrary.wiley.com
  5. 5Gulf of Mexico Spring Season Preview 2025: CONDITIONS LOOKING GOOD IN THE GULF OF AMERICA (MEXICO) – ROFFS®roffs.com

6. How do long-range forecast models from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and AccuWeather compare in their temperature outlooks for the Southeast U.S. in May 2026?

AccuWeather New Orleans May 2026 Avg High86°F [1]
AccuWeather New Orleans May 2026 Daily Highs81°F to 94°F [1]
AccuWeather Southeast May 2026 Avg High22° (unit/scale difference noted) [2]
AccuWeather provides specific and regional temperature outlooks for May 2026. For New Orleans, daily high temperatures are projected to range from 81°F to 94°F, with an average high of 86°F [1]. The regional "Southeast" page, however, displays daily high temperatures from 15.5° to 26.4° and an average high of 22 [2]. This regional data appears to utilize a different unit or scale than the New Orleans-specific forecast, which complicates direct interpretation and comparison [2].
A direct comparison with the CPC could not be established. Despite the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issuing long-range outlooks according to its established monthly and long-lead schedules, the specific Southeast temperature probabilities or terciles necessary for a comparison with AccuWeather's data were not retrieved [3][4]. Consequently, a full comparison of temperature outlooks between the two sources for the Southeast U.S. in May 2026 cannot be made based on the available information [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1New Orleans, LA Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
  2. 2Southeast, IN Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
  3. 3Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  4. 4CPC - Long-Lead Forecast Release Schedule for 2026cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

7. What do historical temperature records for New Orleans from 2016-2025 indicate for the typical daily high around May 13th?

Typical May 13 High (1991-2020 normal)85°F [1]
May 13, 2025 High87°F [1]
May 2024 Monthly Average High87.7°F [2][3]
New Orleans' May 13th high temperatures are showing an increase. The typical daily high temperature for New Orleans on May 13, based on the 1991-2020 normal, is 85°F [1]. In the 2016-2025 period, the daily high specifically on May 13, 2025, reached 87°F, which was 2°F above this established normal [1]. While specific daily averages for May 13th from 2016-2025 were not provided, the average high for nearby dates included 84.4°F for May 11 and 85.1°F for May 14 [4][5].
Monthly average highs for May reveal an overall warming trend. Recent May monthly average highs further illustrate this, with 87.7°F in 2024, 86°F in 2023, and 87°F in 2022 [2][3]. Across the broader 2017 to 2024 period, May monthly average highs in New Orleans increased from 82°F to 89°F, reinforcing this pattern [3][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1IEM:: CLI from NWS LIXmesonet.agron.iastate.edu
  2. 2Average May Temperature in New Orleans by Yearextremeweatherwatch.com
  3. 3New Orleans May Weather Averages - Louisiana, United States of Americaweatherapi.com
  4. 4New Orleans May 11 Weather Recordsextremeweatherwatch.com
  5. 5New Orleans May 14 Weather Recordsextremeweatherwatch.com
  6. 6New Orleans LA Recent May Temperatures, Rainfall - Current Resultscurrentresults.com

8. Which specific NOAA weather station's data is used for official settlement, and what is its historical data availability for mid-May?

Settlement StationNew Orleans Intl Airport / Moisant Field (NOAA station USW00012916) [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Settlement Report SourceNWS LIX CLIMSY report for 'New Orleans, LA' [1]
NOAA Station Data Range1945-10-01 to at least 2026-04-23 [5][6]
The official NOAA weather station for New Orleans temperature settlements is USW00012916. This station is identified as New Orleans International Airport / Moisant Field, with the identifier KMSY [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Prediction market platforms, such as Kalshi, specifically utilize data from the NWS LIX CLIMSY report for 'New Orleans, LA,' which consistently references KMSY for settlement purposes [1][2][3][4].
Historical temperature data for this station extends back to the late 19th century. Daily maximum and minimum temperatures for NOAA station USW00012916 (New Orleans Airport, MSY) are available from October 1, 1945, through at least April 23, 2026 [5][6]. Broader historical records for New Orleans International Airport / Moisant Field (MSY) date back to May 1, 1932, according to ASOS metadata [7]. Furthermore, the National Weather Service reports that records for New Orleans International Airport (MSY) have been maintained since 1871, explicitly distinguishing them from 'New Orleans - City' records, which began in 1893 [8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Apr 3, 2026? | Prediction Markets | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2IEM:: CLI from NWS LIXmesonet.agron.iastate.edu
  3. 3IEM:: CLI from NWS LIXmesonet2.agron.iastate.edu
  4. 4IEM:: CLI from NWS LIXmesonet.agron.iastate.edu
  5. 5Past Weather | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)ncei.noaa.gov
  6. 6https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/services/data/v1?dataset=daily-summaries&endDate=2026-04-30&format=pdf&startDate=2026-04-01&stations=USW00012916ncei.noaa.gov
  7. 7IEM:: Site Info: MSY NEW ORLEANS/MOISANTmesonet.agron.iastate.edu
  8. 8New Orleans Area Daily Climate Dataweather.gov

9. How do the current climate signals for 2026 compare to those present during the warmest Mays on record for New Orleans in the 21st century?

Warmest May on recordMay 2024 (80.6°F average, 98°F high on May 27) [1][2]
El Niño chance (May-Jul 2026)61% [3]
ENSO during past warm MaysVaried (neutral-weak El Niño 2000, weak El Niño onset 2018, post-El Niño neutral 2024) [4]
New Orleans has experienced several notably warm Mays in the 21st century. May 2024 stands as the warmest on record with an average temperature of 80.6°F, and a record high of 98°F observed on May 27 [1][2]. Other historically warm Mays include 2000 (80.1°F), 2010 (79.9°F), 2003 (79.7°F), 2012 (79.3°F), and 2018, which registered approximately 80°F with 18 days reaching or exceeding 90°F [5][6]. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases during these historical periods were varied, ranging from neutral-weak El Niño in May 2000, to a weak El Niño onset in May 2018, and post-El Niño neutral conditions in May 2024 [4].
May 2026 climate signals suggest significant potential for El Niño development. While ENSO-neutral conditions are currently forecast for April-June, there is a 61% chance of El Niño for the May-July 2026 period [3]. Experts also indicate the potential for a Super El Niño summer in 2026, which could lead to above-normal temperatures early in the season [7]. This forecast for a potential strong El Niño event in 2026 contrasts with the generally weaker or neutral ENSO states present during New Orleans' warmest Mays on record in the 21st century [4][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1NWS: Warmest May on record for New Orleans, Baton Rouge - WGNOwgno.com
  2. 2NWS: Warmest May on record for New Orleans, Baton Rougeyahoo.com
  3. 3Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussioncpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  4. 4Climate Prediction Center - ONIorigin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  5. 5NWS LIX - New Orleans International Airport May Top 10 Climate Listsweather.gov
  6. 6New Orleans LA Recent May Temperatures, Rainfall - Current Resultscurrentresults.com
  7. 7Atmospheric Code Red: 2026 Super El Niño Now Trending Toward Record-Breaking Intensity » Severe Weather Europesevere-weather.eu

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

For Wednesday, May 13, 2026, New Orleans is forecast to reach a daytime high of 88°F, with a night low of 66°F and 0% precipitation, according to WeatherShogun’s daily forecast page [1].
This forecast for May 13, 2026, is consistent with AccuWeather’s May 2026 overview for New Orleans, which indicates that May daily highs generally fall within the 82–92°F range [2]. A separate WeatherBug page for May 13, 2026, also shows hourly temperatures climbing into the low/mid-80s [3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: May 14, 2026
  • Expiration: May 20, 2026
  • Closes: May 14, 2026
Sources (3)
  1. 1Wednesday, May 13, 2026. New Orleans, LA - Weather Forecastweathershogun.com
  2. 2New Orleans, LA Monthly Weather | AccuWeatheraccuweather.com
  3. 3New Orleans, LA Hourly Weather Forecast: May 13, 2026 | WeatherBugweatherbug.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHIGHTNOLA-26MAY11-T86: NO (May 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTNOLA-26MAY11-T79: YES (May 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTNOLA-26MAY11-B85.5: NO (May 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTNOLA-26MAY11-B83.5: NO (May 12, 2026)
  • KXHIGHTNOLA-26MAY11-B81.5: NO (May 12, 2026)