Highest grossing movie in 2026?
Short Answer
The model assigns meaningfully lower odds (77.8%) than the market (90.0%) for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" to be the highest-grossing movie of 2026. This assessment is driven by information indicating 'Toy Story 5' is currently the highest-grossing film worldwide for 2026 as of August 4, 2026, with 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' currently ranked #4 globally.
1. Executive Verdict
- `Spider-Man: Brand New Day` is the market favorite despite ranking #4 globally.
- `Toy Story 5` leads 2026 box office, grossing over $1.06 billion by August 4.
- `Avengers: Doomsday` and `Dune: Messiah` face limited gross due to December 18 release.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scream 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | No specific box office or release date information is provided in the gathered research. |
| Wuthering Heights | 0.1% | 0.1% | No specific box office or release date information is provided in the gathered research. |
| Wicked: For Good | 0.2% | 0.1% | No specific box office or release date information is provided in the gathered research. |
| Project Hail Mary | 0.1% | 0.0% | Its theatrical run concluded with $678 million worldwide, significantly below current $1 billion+ leaders. |
| Michael | 0.1% | 2.6% | As of early August 2026, it is confirmed to be in the "billion-dollar club" worldwide. |
Current Context
2. Market Behavior & Price Dynamics
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
This contract's price has been static at its floor of 0.1% since trading began. The trend is completely sideways, with no price fluctuations, volatility, or discernible technical patterns. There have been no significant price movements to analyze, and consequently, no external events have influenced the market's pricing. The floor price of 0.1% represents the only technical level, acting as a firm baseline with no evidence of buying interest to push it higher.
The absence of price action is corroborated by zero trading volume throughout the market's history. This indicates a complete lack of market participation and a firm consensus among potential traders. The static, minimal price suggests conviction is extremely high that a "YES" outcome is improbable. This sentiment is consistent with box office results as of early August 2026, which report "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" has earned over $1.05 billion globally and "The Odyssey" has grossed over $911 million. The market's pricing reflects the view that the film in question has a negligible chance of surpassing these established leaders.
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES for the film with the highest 2026 domestic calendar gross, using data from Box Office Mojo's "Gross" column once December 31 information is available. In the event of an exact tie, the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. Should final data not be available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, an alternative credible resolution source will be chosen.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | $0.91 | $0.10 | 90% |
| Avengers: Doomsday | $0.08 | $0.93 | 8% |
| Dune: Messiah | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| The Odyssey | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Jumanji 3 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Toy Story 5 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Wicked: For Good | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Michael | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Project Hail Mary | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Scream 7 | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Wuthering Heights | $0.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Minions & Monsters | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie D | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie E | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie F | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie G | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie H | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie I | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie J | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie K | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie L | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie M | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie N | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Movie O | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
| Other | $1.00 | $1.00 | 0% |
Market Discussion
Traders on this market overwhelmingly favor "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" to be the highest-grossing movie of 2026, holding a commanding 91% probability. This strong consensus stems from the franchise's consistent box office strength, established fanbase, Marvel branding, and proven IP, further reinforced by record-breaking presales and a strong opening. "Avengers: Doomsday" trails significantly at 8%, with an upset requiring exceptional marketing or critical reception from other contenders.
4. Trader Dashboard
A deterministic, per-market integrity scorecard computed from order-book and price data. Higher is better for Trader Trust, Liquidity, Move Quality and Resolution; higher means more risk for Quote Risk and Avoid Risk.
Scream 7PrimaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Wicked: For GoodTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Wuthering HeightsTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
MichaelTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and GroguTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Toy Story 5Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
The OdysseyTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Spider-Man: Brand New DayTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the ReapingTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Avengers: DoomsdayTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Dune: MessiahTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Project Hail MaryTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
The Super Mario Galaxy MovieTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Jumanji 3Trader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—No significant move
- Factor
Minions & MonstersTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie DTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie ETrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie FTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie GTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie HTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie ITrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie JTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie KTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie LTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie MTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie NTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
Movie OTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
OtherTrader Trust—Liquidity—Move Quality—Resolution—Quote Risk—Avoid Risk—
Move Quality—Insufficient Data
- Factor
trader_dashboard_lean_v1.13 · computed Aug 4, 2026
5. How does the historical box office performance of standalone Spider-Man films compare to that of ensemble Avengers films?
| Cumulative Global Box Office (Spider-Man) | $8.9 billion (early 2025) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Cumulative Global Box Office (Avengers) | $7.7 billion (early 2025) [^][^] |
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day Domestic Opening | approximately $360 million [^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Spider-Man films historically outperform Avengers in cumulative global box office earnings. As of early 2025, standalone Spider-Man films collectively achieved $8.9 billion in global box office revenue, surpassing the Avengers ensemble franchise, which garnered $7.7 billion [^][^]. This stronger performance is largely attributed to the more frequent release schedule of Spider-Man films compared to the event-based nature of the Avengers cinematic cycle [^][^].
'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' is a strong contender for 2026's highest-grossing film. Released on July 31, 2026, the film recorded a record-breaking domestic opening of approximately $360 million [^][^][^][^][^][^]. As of August 4, 2026, market predictions strongly favor this Spider-Man installment to claim the top spot for the year [^][^][^][^][^]. However, the competition remains fierce, with films such as 'Toy Story 5' and 'Michael' having already reached or neared the $1 billion worldwide mark by early August 2026, indicating a close race for the year's top earner [^][^][^].
6. What evidence supports Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' as a top contender against franchise blockbusters like 'Avengers: Doomsday'?
| The Odyssey Worldwide Gross | $912 million (as of early August 2026) [^][^] |
|---|---|
| The Odyssey Release Date | July 17, 2026 [^] |
| Avengers: Doomsday Release Date | December 18, 2026 [^][^][^] |
Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey" has demonstrated substantial initial box office success since its July 17, 2026 release, accumulating $912 million worldwide by early August 2026 [^] [^] . Despite these strong earnings, current prediction markets indicate that "The Odyssey" is trailing "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" in the market-implied probability to become the highest-grossing film of 2026 [^][^][^].
The timing of a film's release plays a crucial role in its ability to accumulate calendar-year box office revenue. "The Odyssey's" July 2026 release date provides it with a substantial advantage, allowing for an extended theatrical run within 2026 [^]. Conversely, "Avengers: Doomsday," set for release on December 18, 2026, faces a significant limitation in generating revenue within the same calendar year due to its late debut [^][^][^].
Director Christopher Nolan possesses a well-established history of helming commercially successful films. His previous directorial projects include notable successes such as "Dark Knight Rises" [^].
7. Which major 2026 film releases, including 'Dune: Messiah' and 'Project Hail Mary', face the highest risk of production or release date delays?
| Dune: Part Three Release Date | December 18, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Project Hail Mary Release Date | March 20, 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Project Hail Mary Worldwide Gross | Over $678 million [^][^][^][^] |
Dune: Part Three maintains its December 2026 release despite competition. The film is officially slated for release on December 18, 2026, placing it in direct competition with Avengers: Doomsday. Despite significant market speculation and audience desires for a schedule change to avoid this direct conflict, neither studio involved has made any announcements regarding a date shift [^][^][^][^][^].
Project Hail Mary successfully concluded its theatrical run without delays. The film premiered on March 20, 2026, and has successfully completed its major theatrical run. It achieved significant box office success, earning over $678 million worldwide, and is not at risk of any further theatrical release date delays [^][^][^][^]. The research did not provide any information regarding potential production delays for either film.
8. How do the recent box office trajectories of the Star Wars and The Hunger Games franchises inform the 2026 outlook for 'The Mandalorian & Grogu' and 'Sunrise on the Reaping'?
| The Mandalorian & Grogu Worldwide Gross | $344.8 million [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| The Mandalorian & Grogu Domestic Gross | $177.7 million [^][^][^] |
| Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Worldwide Gross | $347.9 million [^][^][^] |
The Mandalorian & Grogu (2026) suffered a significant box office disappointment. The film concluded its theatrical run with approximately $344.8 million worldwide, including a $177.7 million domestic gross [^][^][^]. It experienced substantial week-over-week declines and quickly lost its leading position at the box office, highlighting considerable box office volatility in 2026 and a trend of established brands underperforming [^][^][^]. This outcome suggests that even with the potential for profitability of lower-budget spin-offs, 'The Mandalorian & Grogu' faced substantial difficulties with audience retention and maintaining franchise momentum, complicating its standing in the competitive highest-grossing movie market [^][^][^][^].
'Sunrise on the Reaping' has a more optimistic outlook based on prior success. While specific information for 'Sunrise on the Reaping' is unavailable, its prospects are informed by the performance of 'The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (2023)' [^]. That film achieved approximately $347.9 million worldwide against a production budget of $100 million, a result considered a modest financial success due to its relatively lower cost compared to earlier series entries [^][^][^]. This performance indicates that future films in The Hunger Games franchise, particularly spin-offs or prequels with more conservative budgets in the approximate $100-$165 million range, can attain profitability without needing to match the massive box office figures of their predecessors, even amid the general high box office volatility expected in 2026 [^][^][^][^].
9. What is the historical precedent for an animated film like 'Toy Story 5' to become the highest-grossing movie of the year against live-action competition?
| Animation Box Office Trend Shift | Significant shift since 2024 [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Highest Grossing Animated Films | Inside Out 2 (2024) and Ne Zha 2 (2025) [^][^] |
| 2026 Box Office Prediction | Spider-Man: Brand New Day favored over Toy Story 5 [^][^][^][^] |
Historically, animated films rarely topped annual global box office results. Prior to 2024, it was uncommon for an animated feature to achieve the number one global grosser position [^][^][^]. However, a significant shift has emerged since 2024, establishing a new trend where animation consistently competes with and can outperform live-action blockbusters for the top spot [^][^][^].
Animation has increasingly dominated the global box office in recent years. This trend is clearly evidenced by 'Inside Out 2' (2024) and 'Ne Zha 2' (2025), which both served as the highest-grossing films of their respective years worldwide [^][^]. This demonstrates animation's growing capacity to lead annual box office charts.
Despite this emerging trend, prediction markets favor live-action for 2026. As of August 2026, these markets overwhelmingly predict 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' will be the highest-grossing film of the year [^][^][^][^]. 'Toy Story 5' is currently viewed as a significant underdog against its live-action competition in these projections [^][^][^][^].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The 2026 box office exhibits significant activity, with Toy Story 5 earning approximately $1.065 billion to $1.067 billion worldwide as of August 4, 2026, making it the highest-grossing film of the year [^] [^] . Spider-Man: Brand New Day, released July 31, 2026, achieved $1 billion globally in six days. While some reports cite it as the year's highest-grossing film, official charts position it at #4 worldwide behind Toy Story 5, Michael, and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie [^][^][^]. Other films surpassing $1 billion as of early August 2026 include Michael ($1.016 billion) and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ($1.011 billion) [^][^]. This performance aligns with observations that 2026 film revenue could surpass 2025 [^].
Corporate and macroeconomic indicators for 2026 show several drivers. General Motors boosted its 2026 outlook due to premium pricing on large trucks [^]. Projected GDP growth for 2026 is approximately 2%, with AI capital contributing half of that growth [^]. Q1 2026 GDP stood at 181.5 trillion [^]. Additionally, a specific company has planned $15 billion in 2026 capital expenditure [^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Closes: December 31, 2026
11. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: The 2026 box office exhibits significant activity, with Toy Story 5 earning approximately $1.065 billion to $1.067 billion worldwide as of August 4, 2026, making it the highest-grossing film of the year [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Spider-Man: Brand New Day, released July 31, 2026, achieved $1 billion globally in six days.
- Trigger: While some reports cite it as the year's highest-grossing film, official charts position it at #4 worldwide behind Toy Story 5, Michael, and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Other films surpassing $1 billion as of early August 2026 include Michael ($1.016 billion) and The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ($1.011 billion) [^] [^] .
13. Historical Resolutions
No historical resolution data available for this series.
