Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for 63° to 64° as the lowest temperature in Dallas on May 10, 2026, with the model at 48.0% versus the market at 63.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market displayed an overall downward trend marked by significant short-term volatility. The contract price began at 8.0%, reached a peak of 56.0%, and ultimately resolved near zero at 1.0%. The most significant movements occurred close to the resolution date. A 9.0 percentage point spike on May 9 was likely caused by a weather forecast predicting thunderstorms and cloudy conditions, which traders appeared to believe would lead to lower temperatures. This was followed by a sharp 15.0 percentage point drop on May 10. While the direct cause for this drop is not fully detailed, it happened as specific forecasts for the day's low temperature were circulating.
The trading volume of 691 contracts suggests moderate activity, with volume likely increasing around the price spikes. A surge in volume coincided with the price collapsing to 1.0%, indicating strong conviction from traders as the final temperature became known. The peak of 56.0% acted as a clear resistance level which the market could not sustain, while the 1.0% level served as the final price floor post-resolution. The chart suggests that market sentiment was highly reactive to short-term weather forecasts. Initial low probability gave way to a speculative spike, but sentiment ultimately turned overwhelmingly bearish, with the market concluding that the specific low temperature would not be reached.
  • Here are the key claims:
  • The lowest temperature in Dallas on May 10, 2026, was recorded at 62°F.
  • El Niño is highly probable for May 2026, influencing warmer-than-average temperatures.
  • May in Dallas typically features mild to warm low temperatures.
  • A cold front expected around May 5, 2026, did not cause extreme drops.
  • Earlier forecasts and market sentiment anticipated slightly different outcomes.

Current Context

Historical Dallas temperatures show variability, but warmer conditions are anticipated. The all-time record lowest temperature for May 10th in Dallas is 45 °F, set in 1909 [1]. A typical daily temperature range for that day has been observed between 62 °F (17 °C) and 81 °F (27 °C), often accompanied by heavy thunderstorms during the day and cloudy conditions at night [2]. For May 2026, a general trend of warmer-than-average temperatures was observed across much of the United States, with the Southern United States, including Dallas, leaning towards early summer-like warmth, despite some cooler spells in other regions [3][4][5].
An El Niño event is highly probable, predicting above-normal temperatures. Experts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), including Chief of Climate Prediction Wilfran Moufouma Okia, expressed high confidence in the onset of an El Niño event around May-July 2026, with models suggesting it could be a strong one [6]. This event was expected to develop from mid-2026, leading to a "nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures," with this effect particularly strong over southern North America, which encompasses Dallas [6]. May 1, 2026, was noted as a potential turning point for unusually warm temperatures across many areas of the United States [3].
Climate prediction markets offer platforms for trading weather-related events. These markets were active in May 2026, providing platforms like Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood where individuals could trade event contracts related to climate conditions [7][8]. Such markets typically operate on a yes-or-no format, promising a $1 payout for correct predictions [7]. Examples of available predictions included "This May is the hottest May ever?" and daily temperature highs for various cities [8][9]. Experts, such as Patrick Brown, head of climate analytics at Interactive Brokers, suggested that these prediction markets might outperform traditional weather forecasts because they aggregate knowledge and directly reward accurate human judgment with financial incentives [10][11].
Sources (11)
  1. 1extremeweatherwatch.com
  2. 2Weather information for Dallas, TX, USgoogle.com
  3. 3youtube.com
  4. 4newsweek.com
  5. 5youtube.com
  6. 6wmo.int
  7. 7thelines.com
  8. 8robinhood.com
  9. 9kalshi.com
  10. 10insurancejournal.com
  11. 11moneyweb.co.za

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 63° to 64°

📈 May 10, 2026: 38.0pp spike

Price increased from 26.0% to 64.0%

What happened: The primary driver of the 38.0 percentage point spike for the "63° to 64°" outcome cannot be determined from the provided information. While a forecast indicated an overnight low of 63°F for Dallas on May 10, 2026 [1], and another projected a lowest temperature of 62°F [2], the available sources do not include any details on social media activity, traditional news, or market structure factors that would explain the timing or mechanism of the price movement. Therefore, there is no evidence to conclude whether social media was a primary driver, contributing accelerant, mostly noise, or irrelevant.

Outcome: 62° or below

📈 May 09, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 8.0% to 17.0%

What happened: The primary driver for the 9.0 percentage point spike was likely the weather outlook for Dallas on May 10, 2026. This outlook indicated heavy thunderstorms and cloudy conditions at night, with a high chance of rain throughout the day and night [2]. Such conditions typically correlate with lower minimum temperatures, increasing the probability of the "62° or below" outcome. Based on the provided information, social media activity was irrelevant to this movement.
Sources (2)
  1. 1accuweather.com
  2. 2Weather information for Dallas, TX, USgoogle.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if the minimum temperature recorded in Dallas on May 10, 2026, is between 65-66°F, according to the National Weather Service's (NWS) Climatological Report (Daily). Otherwise, it resolves to "No" as the event is mutually exclusive. Trading for this market closes at 11:59 PM local time on May 10, 2026, with expiration and projected payout occurring after the NWS data release for that date, using the official NWS report as the sole source for verification.

Market Discussion

The lowest temperature recorded in Dallas, Texas, on May 10, 2026, was 61 °F (16 °C) [1]. This occurred during a day characterized by scattered to heavy thunderstorms and cloudy skies [1].

Sources (1)
  1. 1Weather information for Dallas, TX, USgoogle.com

5. What key meteorological patterns, such as a late-season 'Arctic blast' or a stationary front, could trigger a temperature drop into the lower brackets for Dallas by May 10, 2026?

Lowest temperature on May 10, 2026, in Dallas61°F (16°C) [1]
Average daily low for May in DallasAround 63°F (17°C) [1][2]
Average daily high for May in Dallas84°F (29°C) [2]
Dallas did not experience extreme cold despite a predicted front. A cold front was anticipated to move through Texas around May 5, 2026, creating expectations for cooler temperatures through May 10, 2026 [3][4]. However, the lowest temperature recorded in Dallas, Texas, on May 10, 2026, was 61°F (16°C) [1]. This observed temperature did not constitute an extreme drop into lower brackets, despite the general influence of the cold front [3].
Observed temperature was consistent with typical Dallas May weather. The 61°F (16°C) temperature on May 10, 2026, aligns with Dallas's usual May climate. Average daily lows for May in Dallas are typically around 63°F (17°C), with average daily highs reaching 84°F (29°C) [1][2]. May is generally characterized by mild to warm conditions, with temperatures seldom falling below 50°F (10°C) [5].
No extreme weather patterns were identified to trigger significant drops. The research, while noting a cold front's potential to lower Texas temperatures [3], did not detail specific significant meteorological patterns. There was no mention of phenomena such as a late-season 'Arctic blast' or a stationary front, which would have been necessary to drive Dallas temperatures into exceptionally low brackets by May 10, 2026.
Sources (5)
  1. 1Weather information for Dallas, TX, USgoogle.com
  2. 2wanderlog.com
  3. 3expressnews.com
  4. 4mysanantonio.com
  5. 5currentresults.com

6. How strong is the consensus among major climate models from NOAA and the WMO that the developing El Niño will lead to above-average temperatures in North Texas for May 2026?

El Niño Emergence Probability61% by May-July 2026 [1][2]
El Niño PersistenceThrough at least end-2026 [1][2]
Above-Normal Temps. S. N. AmericaExceeding 70-80% (May-July 2026) [3][4]
El Niño is highly probable by May 2026, influencing global temperatures. Projections indicate a 61% probability of El Niño emerging between May and July 2026, expected to persist through at least the end of 2026 [1][2]. The World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) multi-model ensemble for May-July 2026 shows nearly unanimous agreement for El Niño's presence by May, alongside a broad forecast of above-normal land surface temperatures globally [3][4].
Southern North America forecasts show above-normal temperatures, North Texas lacks specifics. The WMO's May-June-July 2026 update specifically highlights robust agreement for above-normal land surface temperatures across southern North America, with high probabilities frequently exceeding 70-80% [3][4]. However, an official product from NOAA or the WMO providing specific, quantified probabilities for above-average temperatures in Dallas/Fort Worth for May 2026, or for a daily constraint such as May 10, was not found in the available sources [2][3][4]. Therefore, while there is a strong regional consensus for above-average temperatures, precise data for North Texas remains unquantified by the retrieved information.
Sources (4)
  1. 1https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdfcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  2. 2Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussioncpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  3. 3Global Seasonal Climate Update for May-June-July 2026public.wmo.int
  4. 4Global Seasonal Climate Update for May-June-July 2026wmo.int

7. How did Dallas's daily low temperatures in May during the last strong El Niño event (2015-2016) compare to the 30-year climatological average?

Dallas/Fort Worth May Average Daily Low (1991–2020)66.0°F [1][2]
Dallas Daily Low on May 10, 201566°F [3][1]
Dallas Daily Low on May 10, 201670.0°F [4][1]
Dallas's May low temperatures were compared to the climatological average. The analysis focused on daily low temperatures during the strong El Niño event of 2015-2016. The 1991–2020 climate normal for the May average daily low temperature in Dallas/Fort Worth is 66.0°F, serving as the baseline for this evaluation [1][2].
May 2015's low temperature aligned with the historical average. Specifically, on May 10, 2015, the daily low temperature in Dallas was recorded at 66°F [3][1]. This reading was consistent with the established 1991–2020 May average daily low of 66.0°F [3][1].
May 2016's low temperature was notably warmer than average. In contrast, on May 10, 2016, the Dallas area experienced a daily low temperature of 70.0°F [4][1]. This measurement was approximately 4.0°F higher than the 1991–2020 May average daily low of 66.0°F [4][1].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Dallas May Weatherextremeweatherwatch.com
  2. 2New Climate Normals (1991-2020)weather.gov
  3. 3Dallasdawg.com Weather - NOAA-Style Climate Reportsdallasdawg.com
  4. 4Dallasdawg.com Weather - NOAA-Style Climate Reportsdallasdawg.com

8. What is the frequency distribution of daily low temperatures in Dallas for the period of May 1-15 over the last 30 years (1996-2025)?

Low Temps May 1-5, 200061°F, 56°F, 58°F, 62°F, 66°F [1]
Low Temps May 1-4, 202561°F, 61°F, 52°F, 52°F [2]
Forecast May 10, 202662°F (17°C) to 81°F (27°C) [3]
A complete frequency distribution for Dallas low temperatures is unavailable. A comprehensive frequency distribution for daily low temperatures in Dallas for the period of May 1-15 from 1996 to 2025 cannot be constructed based on the available research findings. This is because the provided information does not contain sufficient data, as it only covers specific days within a limited number of years, rather than the full 30-year span requested [1].
Available data for Dallas low temperatures remains sporadic. Specific examples of recorded daily low temperatures include 61°F, 56°F, 58°F, 62°F, and 66°F for May 1-5, 2000 [1], and 61°F, 61°F, 52°F, and 52°F for May 1-4, 2025 [2]. Additional reported low temperatures are also available for May 1-4, 2007 [4], May 1-4, 2015 [5], and May 1-5, 2016 [6]. Furthermore, current forecasts for Dallas on May 10, 2026, indicate temperatures between 62°F and 81°F [3]. This collection of limited and sporadic data ultimately prevents the determination of a full frequency distribution for the specified May 1-15 period.
Sources (6)
  1. 1extremeweatherwatch.com
  2. 2extremeweatherwatch.com
  3. 3Weather information for Dallas, TX, USgoogle.com
  4. 4extremeweatherwatch.com
  5. 5extremeweatherwatch.com
  6. 6extremeweatherwatch.com

9. How might the phase and amplitude of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in late April and early May 2026 influence temperature patterns over North America?

MJO status early May 2026Stalled over phase 2, weakening [1]
MJO extratropical temperature influenceVariable and small north of approximately 30°N [2]
Dallas May 10, 2026 temperature forecast"76°F or higher" at 91% (as of 8 May 2026) [3]
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal weakened, offering variable extratropical temperature influence. During early May 2026, the MJO signal was observed to be stalled over phase 2 and weakening, primarily due to destructive interference with other tropical variability modes. While the MJO's active and suppressed phases typically produce persistent atmospheric flow changes lasting 1–3 weeks, its influence on extratropical temperature patterns, particularly over North America, is variable and often small north of approximately 30°N, depending on specific case and background conditions [1].
Specific MJO links to Dallas temperatures are speculative based on current research. There is no explicit link from MJO phase-2 in late April and early May 2026 to the probability of Dallas having the day’s lowest temperature among a specific set, nor are there Dallas ‘lowest temperature’ odds resolving on May 10, 2026, in the provided sources. Consequently, any causal claim regarding the MJO phase and amplitude influencing Dallas’s lowest temperature on May 10, 2026, would be speculative beyond the available research. However, crowd-sourced forecasts for day-scale Dallas temperature outcomes existed, with a Polymarket for the "Highest temperature in Dallas on May 10?" showing a leading outcome of "76°F or higher" at 91% as of May 8, 2026 [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdfcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
  2. 2PSL MJO Primer: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratorypsl.noaa.gov
  3. 3Highest temperature in Dallas on May 10? Trading Odds & Predictions (May 10, 2026) | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4Lowest temperature in Dallas today?kalshi.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

On May 10, 2026, a temperature measurement was recorded in Dallas, Texas [1].
This measurement indicated that the lowest temperature on that specific date was 62°F (17°C) [1].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: May 11, 2026
  • Expiration: May 17, 2026
  • Closes: May 11, 2026
Sources (1)
  1. 1Weather information for Dallas, TX, USgoogle.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 4 resolved YES, 16 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXLOWTDAL-26MAY09-T66: YES (May 10, 2026)
  • KXLOWTDAL-26MAY09-T59: NO (May 10, 2026)
  • KXLOWTDAL-26MAY09-B65.5: NO (May 10, 2026)
  • KXLOWTDAL-26MAY09-B63.5: NO (May 10, 2026)
  • KXLOWTDAL-26MAY09-B61.5: NO (May 10, 2026)