Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect an 8.0 magnitude earthquake to occur in Japan before 2030, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market has exhibited significant volatility, trading within a 20-point range between 46% and 66%. The overall trend is slightly upward from its starting price of 50%, currently resting at 56%. The primary drivers of price action have been official seismic advisories and the expiration of those warnings. A major spike to the 60-66% range occurred in late April 2026, directly following a Japanese government advisory of "heightened risk" for a M8.0+ earthquake after a M7.7 event. Conversely, significant price drops to the high 40s were observed as this period of heightened alert concluded and after a viral social media prophecy failed to materialize, causing the market to correct from what appears to have been an over-inflated probability.
The price action suggests a resistance level in the mid-60s, representing peak perceived risk following an immediate government warning, and a support level in the mid-to-high 40s, which the market has returned to after those alerts subside. The current price of 56% sits near the midpoint of this established range. The total volume of 844 contracts indicates moderate but engaged trading activity. A significant portion of this volume occurred as the price settled around its current level in early May, suggesting traders are actively re-evaluating the long-term risk after the recent short-term catalysts have passed. Overall, market sentiment reflects a belief that a major earthquake is more likely than not before 2030, with traders pricing in a baseline probability around 50% that is highly sensitive to official announcements of increased seismic activity.
  • Nankai Trough earthquake risk is high, within its recurrence interval.
  • Chishima Trench has larger magnitude potential, but Nankai Trough higher risk.
  • Japanese agencies use recurrence-time models for Nankai Trough earthquake probability.
  • 2024 Noto earthquake unlikely to trigger a separate M8.0+ event.
  • Japan significantly enhanced earthquake early-warning and seismic monitoring since 2011.
  • April 2026 quakes temporarily elevated "megaquake" likelihood to one percent.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2030 56.0% 48.0% Japan's location on active tectonic plate boundaries makes it highly susceptible to major earthquakes.

Current Context

Japan faces high long-term probabilities for significant magnitude 8+ earthquakes. The Nankai Trough region has a 60-90% probability of experiencing a magnitude 8 or greater earthquake within the next 30 years (extending to approximately 2055), a forecast that was last revised in 2025 [1][2]. Similarly, the Chishima Trench off Hokkaido carries an approximately 90% probability of a magnitude 7.8-8.5 earthquake within the next 30 years, with a 7-40% chance of a magnitude 8.8 or greater event [3][4].
Immediate forecasts indicate no M8.0+ quakes for 2025-2026. While no magnitude 8.0 or stronger earthquakes are currently predicted for Japan in 2025-2026, recent magnitude 7.5 or greater events have led to advisories indicating a 1% increased risk of an M8+ quake [5][6].
Experts emphasize unpredictability and preparedness despite high long-term risks. Seismological experts consistently state that earthquakes are inherently unpredictable in the short term [1][7]. Despite the high long-term probabilities of major seismic events in specific regions, preparedness remains the most crucial strategy [1][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Japan's Nankai Trough megaquake - can you predict it? - BBC Newsbbc.co.uk
  2. 2Nankai Trough megaquake: Two occurrence probabilities listed side by side - Earthquake Research Committee states "could occur at any time" | Stories | Science Japansj.jst.go.jp
  3. 3"Impending Magnitude 9 Megaquake" Warning of a "Once-in-400-Years Disaster"...What Is Happening in Japan - The Asia Business Dailycm.asiae.co.kr
  4. 4Japan scientists have raised their warning levels on the chances of a Nankai Trough mega quake occurring within 30 years. | NHK WORLD-JAPAN Newsnhk.or.jp
  5. 52025 Aomori earthquakeen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6Japan warns of increased risk of earthquakes at M8.0 or strongerjapantoday.com
  7. 7Risk of ‘megaquake’ in Japan higher after powerful earthquake strikes | Scientific Americanscientificamerican.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 May 04, 2026: 13.0pp spike

Price increased from 48.0% to 61.0%

Outcome: Before 2030

What happened: The primary driver of the 13.0 percentage point price spike on May 04, 2026, was likely the traditional news of a "megaquake advisory" issued by Japan around April 20, 2026 [1]. Following a M7.7 earthquake, this advisory explicitly stated a "relatively higher" likelihood of an 8.0 magnitude or stronger earthquake, with some reporting citing an estimated 1% chance in the short term [1]. This official announcement directly increased the perceived probability of the market's outcome and appeared to lead the price move. No social media activity or market structure factors were identified in the provided research.

📉 May 01, 2026: 19.0pp drop

Price decreased from 66.0% to 47.0%

Outcome: Before 2030

What happened: The primary driver of the 19.0 percentage point drop on May 01, 2026, was likely the conclusion of a period of heightened seismic alert following an earlier event. On April 20, 2026, a Magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurred off Sanriku, prompting an advisory for an increased risk of a large earthquake along northern Japan's Pacific coast for the subsequent week [2]. As this advisory period passed without an 8.0 magnitude earthquake occurring by May 01, the market likely corrected, reducing the perceived immediate probability of the outcome within the "before 2030" timeframe [2]. Social media was not identified as a primary driver or significant contributing factor.

📉 April 26, 2026: 17.0pp drop

Price decreased from 64.0% to 47.0%

Outcome: Before 2030

What happened: The 17.0 percentage point drop on April 26, 2026, was primarily driven by the market correcting after the failure of a viral manga prophecy predicting a major earthquake in Japan in July 2025 [3][4][5]. This widely circulated social media narrative had likely inflated the market's perceived probability for an M8.0 earthquake before 2030 [3]. With the predicted event not occurring and seismologists consistently emphasizing that accurate short-term earthquake prediction is not possible, the market recalibrated its expectations months later [3]. Social media activity, specifically the viral manga prophecy, was a primary driver, first influencing an upward bias and then creating the conditions for this significant downward correction.

📈 April 22, 2026: 10.0pp spike

Price increased from 50.0% to 60.0%

Outcome: Before 2030

What happened: The primary driver of the 10.0 percentage point spike on April 22, 2026, was likely the Japanese government's official "heightened risk" advisory issued on April 20, 2026, following a M7.7 earthquake [6][7]. This advisory warned of a "relatively higher than normal" chance of a M8.0+ earthquake, directly influencing the market's assessment of future seismic activity [6][7]. While old earthquake footage misrepresented as current circulated on social media after the M7.7 quake [8][9][10], available research does not substantiate this social media activity as the cause for this specific market spike [8]. Therefore, social media was likely mostly noise or a general contributing accelerant, rather than the primary driver of this particular movement.
Sources (10)
  1. 1Risk of ‘megaquake’ in Japan higher after powerful earthquake strikes | Scientific Americanscientificamerican.com
  2. 2nippon.com
  3. 3latimes.com
  4. 4medium.com
  5. 5wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  6. 6Japan on high alert for 'huge' second earthquake after lifting tsunami warning - BBC Newsbbc.co.uk
  7. 7Japan earthquake: Tsunami advisory lifted after Japan earthquake but warnings for potential stronger quake issued | CNNus.cnn.com
  8. 8Fact Check: Old Japan earthquake video shared as footage from April 2026 | Reutersreuters.com
  9. 9Old clips misrepresented as April 2026 earthquake in Japanyahoo.com
  10. 10Fact Check: Viral videos DO... - Factcrescendo - Sri Lanka | Facebookfacebook.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude or greater, with an epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters, occurs before January 1, 2030, as verified by the USGS. If this event does not occur by then, the market resolves to NO. The market opened on May 24, 2025, and will close early if the event happens, or by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM EST otherwise, with payouts projected 30 minutes after closing. Insider trading is prohibited for employees of source agencies and individuals possessing material, non-public information.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before 2030 $0.57 $0.44 56%

Market Discussion

The market discussion is somewhat limited, but traders raise points about both the probability of the event and the nature of the market. One trader betting "Yes" cites a recent 7.7 magnitude earthquake off the coast as a reason for a potential 8.0 event, also seeking clarification on "territorial waters." Conversely, several participants express discomfort with the market's premise, labeling it "f* up" or questioning the act of betting on such a disaster. Other traders focus on the long payout timeline, noting the wait until 2030 if the event doesn't occur early.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 82 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score93Strong
Trade quality20% of score37High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score82Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
91Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
95Strong

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
46Thin

Expect slippage beyond small size

1 contract

Before 203046
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Before 2030—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Before 2030100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
37High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 46 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 4.1c slippage (~11% of a 37.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before 203046Market scoreLiquidity46Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 46
Liquidity
46 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. How do the Nankai Trough and the Chishima Trench compare in terms of estimated recurrence intervals, potential maximum magnitude, and proximity to major population centers for an M8.0+ event before 2030?

Nankai Trough Recurrence Cycle100 to 200 years [1][2][3][4][5]
Chishima Trench Last MegaquakeOver 400 years ago [6]
Chishima Trench Potential Magnitude9.0 to 9.3 [7][6][8]
The Nankai Trough earthquake risk is higher, but the Chishima Trench magnitude is larger. The Nankai Trough is currently within its estimated 100 to 200 year recurrence cycle for M8.0 or higher earthquakes, with 80 years having passed since the last major event in 1946, placing it within the expected recurrence window [1][2][3][4][5][9]. A committee emphasizes that such an event "could occur at any time" [10][9]. In contrast, a megaquake along the Chishima Trench is believed to have last occurred over 400 years ago [6]. Researchers warn of the potential for a magnitude 9.0 to 9.3 megaquake in the Chishima Trench [7][6][8]. The government's earthquake panel estimates a 7-40% chance of an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.8 or higher occurring in this region within the next 30 years [6][11][12][8][13].
Both trenches threaten Japan's coast, but the Nankai impacts more major centers. Earthquakes and associated tsunamis from the Nankai Trough directly threaten Japan's densely populated Pacific coast, including major metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya [1][14]. Its closer proximity to these communities means significantly shorter tsunami warning times, potentially as little as 5 minutes [2]. The Chishima Trench runs parallel to the east coast of Hokkaido, approximately 150 km offshore [12]. A massive earthquake in this area could cause widespread damage from Hokkaido to Chiba Prefecture, with coastal areas being particularly vulnerable to severe tsunamis [15][16]. Government projections from 2022 estimate that a 9.3-magnitude earthquake in the Chishima region could result in 100,000 deaths [7][6]. While both trenches pose a significant threat, the Nankai Trough directly impacts more of Japan's major economic and population centers [1][2][14].
Sources (16)
  1. 1gsi.go.jpcais.gsi.go.jp
  2. 2temblor.net
  3. 3nih.govpmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
  4. 4wikipedia.orgen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5popularmechanics.com
  6. 6tokyoweekender.com
  7. 7macaonews.org
  8. 8thestandard.com.hk
  9. 9jst.go.jpsj.jst.go.jp
  10. 10japantimes.co.jp
  11. 11jref.com
  12. 12scmp.com
  13. 13japan-forward.com
  14. 14indiatimes.comtimesofindia.indiatimes.com
  15. 15bousai.go.jp
  16. 16bousai.go.jp

7. What scientific models and historical data do Japanese government agencies use to calculate the high long-term probability of a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake in the Nankai Trough?

Nankai Trough 30-year M8-M9 probability (initial)70–80% [1][2]
Nankai Trough 30-year M8-M9 probability (revised)60–90% or higher [2][3]
Average recurrence interval (Nankai)Approximately 90 years [4]
Japanese government agencies primarily use recurrence-time models for Nankai Trough earthquake probability. Through Japan’s Earthquake Research Committee/Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, these agencies primarily utilize recurrence-time models, including both time-predictable and BPT-type models, to calculate the high long-term probability of a magnitude 8.0+ earthquake in the Nankai Trough [1][2][3][5][6]. These models integrate historical seismic data, observational results, and recurrence intervals to quantify earthquake likelihoods [5][7][4]. The Nankai Trough’s initial long-term evaluation applied a time-predictable model, which reported a 30-year probability for an M8-M9-class megaquake of approximately 70-80% for the ‘entire Nankai Trough area’ [1][2].
Subsequent methodological revisions refined calculations and incorporated new insights. Later revisions to the probability computation methodology addressed uplift-data errors/uncertainty and incorporated a slip-size dependent approach [2][3]. This updated methodology blends or contrasts the conventional time-predictable model with a BPT-type model, yielding a higher, wider probability range of ‘60-90% or higher’ [2][3]. Scientific discussions emphasize that the time-predictable model is used for subduction-zone evaluations with event-history recurrence, while BPT is often selected due to physical meaning and parameter stability [5][6]. The evaluation process is explicitly motivated by the need to incorporate new observational and research results, including seismic history evidence for Nankai, with ERC long-term evaluation reports being periodically revised [7][1]. Additionally, a Poisson baseline with an average recurrence interval of approximately 90 years is used in research on successive Nankai megathrust earthquakes to compute probability gains, illustrating how Japan-relevant recurrence intervals and probabilistic assumptions are commonly used to quantify ‘high probability’ from historical event frequencies [4].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Probability of the Next Megathrust Earthquake Along the Nankai Troughjishin.go.jp
  2. 2Nankai Trough megaquake: Two occurrence probabilities listed side by side - Earthquake Research Committee states "could occur at any time" | Stories | Science Japansj.jst.go.jp
  3. 3https://www.jma-net.go.jp/osaka/jishinkazan/hitokuchi/244_Long-termEvalution-NankaiTrough_202509.pdfjma-net.go.jp
  4. 4High probability of successive occurrence of Nankai megathrust earthquakes | Scientific Reportspreview-www.nature.com
  5. 5https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jpe1952/44/4/44_4_349/_pdfjstage.jst.go.jp
  6. 6https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jgeography1889/110/6/110_6_816/_pdfjstage.jst.go.jp
  7. 7南海トラフの地震活動の長期評価（第二版）について　（平成２５年５月２４日）jishin.go.jp

8. Following the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake, what is the scientific consensus on how a magnitude 7.0-7.9 event could alter regional stress patterns and trigger a separate M8.0+ earthquake before 2030?

Earthquake MagnitudeMw 7.5 (Noto Peninsula, 2024) [1]
Estimated Slipup to nearly ~10 m (of estimated slip) [2][3]
Dynamic Stress Changesabout 12.8–102.6 kPa (triggering small earthquakes) [1][4]
The scientific consensus indicates that the 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake altered regional stress patterns, but not in a way that plausibly triggers a separate M8.0+ earthquake before 2030. The 2024 Mw 7.5 Noto Peninsula earthquake involved an estimated slip of up to nearly 10 meters and a rupture extending approximately 150 kilometers along an offshore fault system. This event released NW–SE compressional stress, influencing the regional tectonic environment [2][3].
The Noto earthquake dynamically triggered small seismic events, not larger ones. Following the main event, peer-reviewed analysis identified remote dynamic triggering of small earthquakes, with estimated dynamic stress changes ranging from about 12.8 to 102.6 kPa. These findings demonstrate that wave-driven stress perturbations can activate local seismicity [1][4]. However, the evidence of dynamically triggered seismicity is specifically for small events and does not support the triggering of an M8+ earthquake by 2030 [1][4].
Deformation studies and statistics do not link Noto to a specific M8+ trigger. Deformation studies have not established that the stress changes from the Noto earthquake would plausibly load a specific distant M8-capable fault within the 2024–2030 timeframe [2][3]. While global and Nankai-focused statistics on "twin ruptures" estimate substantial probabilities for successive M8+ events over various time windows, these are catalog-based likelihood estimates. They do not provide evidence that the 2024 Noto event specifically triggers an M8+ earthquake before 2030 [5].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Dynamically triggered seismicity in Japan following the 2024 Mw7.5 Noto earthquake | Earth, Planets and Space | Springer Nature Linkearth-planets-space.springeropen.com
  2. 2Landscape changes caused by the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake in Japanscience.org
  3. 3Landscape changes caused by the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake in Japangfzpublic.gfz.de
  4. 4Dynamically triggered seismicity in Japan following the 2024 Mw7.5 Noto earthquake | Research Squareresearchsquare.com
  5. 5High probability of successive occurrence of Nankai megathrust earthquakesnature.com

9. What publicly available datasets from agencies like the JMA or NIED provide near-real-time monitoring of seismic activity and crustal deformation in the Nankai Trough and Chishima Trench?

Seismic Report Issue TimeApproximately 1.5 minutes [1]
GEONET Data Interval30-second intervals [2]
GEONET StationsOver 1,300 [2]
Publicly available datasets offer near-real-time monitoring of seismic activity. The National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED)'s High Sensitivity Seismograph Network Japan (Hi-net) provides event and hypocenter information, also supporting continuous waveform data downloads for registered users [3][4][5]. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) issues Seismic Intensity Information reports within approximately 1.5 minutes of an event, specifically when seismic intensity reaches 3 or higher, utilizing its dedicated monitoring infrastructure [1].
Near-real-time crustal deformation is tracked using extensive networks and specialized services. The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan (GSI) operates GEONET, a GNSS network comprising over 1,300 stations that provide RINEX data at 30-second intervals via the Internet, subject to application and usage terms [2]. GSI's TERRAS download service further facilitates time-windowed RINEX data retrieval, though with constraints such as a maximum download window of one day and a 24-hour request limit [6]. Additionally, NIED maintains maritime and seafloor observation services, including a dedicated seafloor network designed for monitoring activity within trench regions [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Japan Meteorological Agencyjma.go.jp
  2. 2GEONET | GSI HOME PAGEgsi.go.jp
  3. 3NIED Hi-net β Ver. [High Sensitivity Seismograph Network Japan]hinet.bosai.go.jp
  4. 4How to use the Hi-net datahinet.bosai.go.jp
  5. 5LOGIN Page for Registered Usershinetwww11.bosai.go.jp
  6. 6データダウンロードterras.gsi.go.jp
  7. 7NIED |海底地震津波観測網seafloor.bosai.go.jp
  8. 8The National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED)bosai.go.jp

10. What advancements in Japan's earthquake early-warning (EEW) systems and seismic monitoring technology since the 2011 Tōhoku quake could impact the detection of an M8.0+ event before 2030?

S-net Japan Trench 50th percentile detection improvement3.9 seconds earlier [1][2]
DONET Nankai Trough M9 warning improvementUp to 10 seconds faster [3]
Hi-net inland earthquake warning improvement3.6 seconds average improvement [4]
Japan has significantly enhanced its earthquake early-warning (EEW) systems and seismic monitoring technology since the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, introducing new algorithms and integrating advanced observation networks. These advancements could impact the detection of an M8.0+ event before 2030 by improving both the speed and accuracy of seismic event characterization. Key algorithmic developments include the IPF algorithm, introduced in 2016, which processes data from multiple stations simultaneously and tracks magnitude growth for large earthquakes [4][2][3]. In 2018, the PLUM algorithm was implemented, utilizing direct ground motion propagation from observations and proving particularly effective for extended ruptures similar to the 2011 M9 event [1][5][6][7].
Monitoring capabilities have also advanced significantly with expanded networks. The integration of the S-net deep-ocean observation network by 2019 led to 50th percentile detection times that were 3.9 seconds earlier and 75th percentile times that were 8.8 seconds earlier in the Japan Trench area [1][2]. For the Nankai Trough, the DONET system provides up to 10 seconds faster warnings for potential M9 events [3]. Additionally, in 2023, the Hi-net network, comprising 800 stations, was added to the IPF algorithm, resulting in an average improvement of 3.6 seconds in warning times for inland earthquakes [4].
It is important to distinguish between real-time EEW and other alert systems. While a 2022 Megaquake Advisory issues post-M7+ alerts for an elevated risk of M8+ events, sometimes indicating a 1% chance, this system is distinct from EEW and does not involve the real-time detection of an M8+ event itself [8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2021.726045/pdffrontiersin.org
  2. 2Frontiers | Developments of the Nationwide Earthquake Early Warning System in Japan After the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquakefrontiersin.org
  3. 310 years after 3.11, tech behind Japan's Earthquake Early Warning system keeps improving - The Mainichimainichi.jp
  4. 4Performance of the earthquake early warning system for the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake | Earth, Planets and Space | Springer Nature Linkearth-planets-space.springeropen.com
  5. 5PLUM法ja.wikipedia.org
  6. 6気象庁｜緊急地震速報｜PLUM法の導入についてdata.jma.go.jp
  7. 7Seismological Society of America - The First-Year Operation of the Plum Algorithm in the Earthquake Early Warning System of the Japan Meteorological Agencyseismosoc.secure-platform.com
  8. 8Japan can predict megaquakes, but with a catch. Here is how its early warning system workswionews.com
  9. 9Risk of ‘megaquake’ in Japan higher after powerful earthquake strikes | Scientific Americanscientificamerican.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The market defining "Yes" for an "8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030" indicates an earthquake of magnitude ">=8.0" with its epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters occurring before January 1, 2030, with resolution verified by USGS [1].
Following a powerful April 2026 quake sequence, the likelihood of a new ">=8.0" 'megaquake' in the coming days was reported as elevated, with estimated odds around "~1%" [2]. Japanese authorities similarly issued a special advisory warning of increased risk of earthquakes at M8.0 or stronger after a major quake [3].
Japan’s Earthquake Research Committee revised 30-year Nankai Trough megaquake occurrence probabilities to approximately "60–90%" or higher, underscoring raised long-term baseline risk even though 'could occur at any time' remains the framing [4].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 08, 2030
  • Closes: January 01, 2030
Sources (4)
  1. 18.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? | Prediction Marketscoinbase.com
  2. 2Risk of ‘megaquake’ in Japan higher after powerful earthquake strikes | Scientific Americanscientificamerican.com
  3. 3Japan warns of increased risk of earthquakes at M8.0 or strongerjapantoday.com
  4. 4Nankai Trough megaquake: Two occurrence probabilities listed side by side - Earthquake Research Committee states "could occur at any time" | Stories | Science Japansj.jst.go.jp