Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026?
Short Answer
Rain is likely to fall in Phoenix on October 31, 2026, with the market pricing this at 96%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The most significant price movement, an 11-point spike to 83.0% on October 30, is not explained by the provided information. The context for this spike references a different market outcome ("West Palm Beach"), where weather forecasts were conflicting, indicating only a 24-40% chance of rain. No corresponding news event or social media narrative was found to explain the move. The reason for this specific price action and its relevance to the New York City contract are therefore unclear.
The contract's generally high trading range, from 51.0% to 91.0%, is consistent with broad meteorological reports for the resolution date. Forecasts from multiple sources, including the Hong Kong Observatory and the China Meteorological Administration, anticipated widespread rain on October 31 across numerous US cities and severe weather systems in Asia. This established a high baseline probability for precipitation in major metropolitan areas, supporting the elevated pricing for this market.
- Miami's high rain probability reflects official National Weather Service guidance.
- Strong El Niño likely increased rain probabilities across the southern tier.
- Meteorological analyses indicated low rain probability for Seattle and San Francisco.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa | 55.0% | 58.0% | The city is in a subtropical climate zone often impacted by late-season weather systems. |
| Columbus | 2.0% | 2.0% | Rain is a common meteorological occurrence for Columbus on October 31. |
| Miami | 88.0% | 85.0% | Tropical moisture and frontal activity are expected to bring precipitation. |
| Atlanta | 3.0% | 6.0% | The southeastern United States can experience rain from various weather systems in autumn. |
| West Palm Beach | 84.0% | 87.0% | Moist tropical air and potential frontal systems suggest rainfall. |
Current Context
Global forecasts reported widespread rain, with severe weather in Asia and the US. As of October 31, 2026, rain or showers were reported or forecast in Seoul, Xi'an, Los Angeles, Venice, Miami, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Honolulu, and several Asian-Pacific cities including Manila, Hanoi, Singapore, Jakarta, Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, and Sydney/Melbourne [1][2][3]. The China Meteorological Administration projected heavy to torrential rain from October 27–31 across eastern and northern India, Nepal, western Bhutan, western Bangladesh, and western Myanmar [4]. Typical accumulations in this region were 50–90 mm, with 130–250 mm in parts of Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh, and localized totals exceeding 300 mm [4].
A significant US storm brought rain, snow, and flash flood warnings. On October 31, the primary weather threat in the United States was a Southwest and West storm, with heavy rain and thunderstorms affecting parts of Arizona, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, Texas, and the southern Plains [5][6][7]. Rain and high-elevation snow spread across the Great Basin, Rockies, California, and the Sierra Nevada [8][9]. Snow was concentrated at higher elevations, with OpenSnow expecting the Sierra/Tahoe to receive its heaviest snow on October 31 [8]. Broader storm totals were roughly 8–16 inches in the Sierra, 12–24 inches at favored Utah and southwest Colorado resorts, and 4–12 inches in central and northern Colorado [8]. Sierra advisories primarily targeted elevations above 7,000–8,000 feet, warning of difficult to impossible travel [9]. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center issued Slight Risks for excessive rainfall in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, warning of localized flash flooding [5][6]. This US storm period extended into November 1–2 [5].
Prediction markets showed varied rainfall probabilities across US cities. Robinhood's October 31 market indicated Minneapolis at 53¢, College Station at 49¢, and Oklahoma City at 44¢ [10]. Its broader live rainfall page listed Miami at 91%, Los Angeles at 89%, and Chicago at 86% for rain on October 31 [11]. Robinhood's October 31–November 1 weekend market showed Springfield at 53¢, Austin at 51¢, and Denver at 45¢ [12]. Kalshi's related daily market snapshot indicated College Station at 65%, Oklahoma City at 62%, and Dallas at 59% [13]. Kalshi's settlement rules use station climate-day precipitation, counting trace amounts as zero [14].
Sources (14)
- 1天 氣 稿 第 034 號 - 世界各大城市天氣消息info.gov.hk
- 2세계의 날씨(10월31일) | 연합뉴스yna.co.kr
- 3PRESS WEATHER NO. 070 - WEATHER OF OTHER CITIESinfo.gov.hk
- 4Global Weather丨Tropical System in the Bay of Bengal to Develop into a Cyclonic Storm India, Nepal, and Other Areas Experience Heavy Precipitationcma.gov.cn
- 5WPC's Short Range Public Discussionwpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 6WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlookwpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 7Another Round of Heavy Rain Targets the Southwest This Weekend - WeatherNationweathernationtv.com
- 8October 30-November 2 Storm Favors California, Utah, and Colorado | US + Canada Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnowopensnow.com
- 9Halloween snow advisory targets Sierra travel above 7,000 feet | Air Sports Netusairnet.com
- 10October 31, 2026: Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 11Climate Rainfall Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 12October 31, 2026: Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 13Where will it rain tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 14Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Dallas
📉 October 31, 2026: 27.0pp drop
Price decreased from 66.0% to 39.0%
What happened: The provided research does not identify a 27.0 percentage point drop in the prediction market price for rain in Dallas on October 31, 2026, nor does it establish a specific social media market reaction corresponding to such a movement [1]. While forecasts do indicate a possibility of scattered showers in Dallas through the morning of October 31, 2026, with a 50% daytime precipitation probability [2], this general weather information is not linked to any market activity or decline. Therefore, based on the available information, social media cannot be identified as a primary driver for the described price movement, as neither the movement itself nor any specific catalysts are evidenced [1].
Outcome: West Palm Beach
📈 October 30, 2026: 83.0pp spike
Price increased from 0.0% to 83.0%
What happened: No evidence of social media activity from key figures or viral narratives was found to explain the 83.0 percentage point spike for the "West Palm Beach" outcome on October 30, 2026. Weather forecasts for West Palm Beach on October 31, 2026, were conflicting; some indicated only a 24-40% chance of rain, while others suggested moderate rain [3][4][5][6]. Additionally, South Florida media reported on October 30 that heavier rain was expected later in the weekend, potentially after the 31st, rather than specifically on the market's target date [7]. Therefore, based on the provided web research, the primary driver for this significant price movement, including any social media catalyst, cannot be determined.
Sources (7)
- 1Dallas Weekend Weather: Will It Rain? Every Model Compared | checkweather.iocheckweather.io
- 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 3Palm Beach, FL Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
- 4West Palm Beach, FL Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
- 514 Days weather forecast - West Palm Beach | MeteoNavigatormeteonavigator.com
- 6West Palm Beach, United States tomorrow forecast: 77°F/89°F, Moderate Rainweather365.com
- 7Heavy rains return later this weekend - WPBFwpbf.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The specific criteria for what constitutes "rain" for a YES resolution or "no rain" for a NO resolution in a given city on October 31st are not defined in the provided content. The maximum payout date for this market is November 1, 2026. Kalshi may delay expiration if a material error is found in the initial data publication, holding until a corrected revision or the Expiration Date; if no data is available by then, markets resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi, irrespective of an initial "Final" status.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | $0.88 | $0.13 | 88% |
| West Palm Beach | $0.85 | $0.16 | 84% |
| Tampa | $0.55 | $0.47 | 55% |
| Indianapolis | $0.09 | $0.92 | 8% |
| Atlanta | $0.03 | $0.99 | 3% |
| Columbus | $0.02 | $0.99 | 2% |
| Boston | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Detroit | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Lexington | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| New York City | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Newark | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Philadelphia | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Pittsburgh | $0.02 | $0.99 | 1% |
| Providence | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Trenton | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| Washington DC | $0.01 | $1.00 | 1% |
| New Orleans | $0.85 | $0.17 | 85% |
| Springfield | $0.74 | $0.28 | 75% |
| Milwaukee | $0.67 | $0.34 | 66% |
| Minneapolis | $0.66 | $0.35 | 65% |
| Oklahoma City | $0.61 | $0.41 | 61% |
| Houston | $0.60 | $0.43 | 59% |
| Chicago | $0.59 | $0.44 | 56% |
| College Station | $0.46 | $0.56 | 46% |
| Dallas | $0.37 | $0.65 | 37% |
| St. Louis | $0.28 | $0.74 | 25% |
| Austin | $0.14 | $0.87 | 13% |
| San Antonio | $0.13 | $0.89 | 11% |
| Phoenix | $0.97 | $0.05 | 96% |
| Albuquerque | $0.56 | $0.45 | 51% |
| Denver | $0.03 | $0.99 | 5% |
| Los Angeles | $0.89 | $0.12 | 89% |
| Las Vegas | $0.76 | $0.25 | 74% |
| San Francisco | $0.16 | $0.85 | 16% |
| Seattle | $0.06 | $0.96 | 7% |
Market Discussion
Prediction markets for October 31, 2026, show high implied probabilities of rain for several U.S. cities, including Miami, Los Angeles, Chicago, Albuquerque, and Phoenix, with a significant western U.S. precipitation signal attributed to an atmospheric river-type moisture plume [1].
5. Trust Index
“Philadelphia” made a large jump with almost no trading behind it.
Integrity risk· Thin-volume moves
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score81Good
Trade quality20% of score52Caution
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score75Good
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What Late-October Forecast Updates Drove Price Spikes for Los Angeles and Miami?
| Los Angeles rain market price (Oct. 31) | 88–89% [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Miami rain market price (Oct. 31) | 88.5–91% [1][2][3][4] |
| Los Angeles rain chance (Oct. 31, forecast) | 0% [5] |
Late-October updates significantly increased rain prediction market prices for October 31, 2026, in both Los Angeles and Miami [1]-[6]. By October 30, 2026, the market had repriced Los Angeles to approximately 88–89% and Miami to 88.5–91% for rain on October 31, with Miami generally exhibiting slightly higher pricing across various platforms and times [1][2][3][4].
Miami's forecast indicated a materially wetter outlook for October 31, 2026. Late-October forecasts predicted cloudy conditions, showers or occasional rain, northeast winds, and daytime rain chances ranging from 30–60%, with some forecasts also including overnight showers [7][8][9][10]. The broader weekend market for Miami was priced even higher at 97%, compared to 91% for the single-day October 31 market, which suggested that traders perceived a persistent rain risk for Miami spanning the October 31–November 1 period [3].
Los Angeles's forecast, however, contradicted its market price spike. The USC/Los Angeles weekend forecast for October 31 predicted mostly sunny conditions with a 0% rain chance [5]. Although evidence supports a forecast-driven explanation for the price increases in both cities, the available research does not include a timestamped trade-by-trade price history or identify a single forecast bulletin as the sole catalyst [3][4][6]. The market settlement is determined by The Weather Company’s official daily total precipitation for the relevant climate station, where trace amounts or missing values are counted as zero [11][4][6].
Sources (11)
- 1Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026?: Live Odds (Full Field) | ContractTaxcontracttax.com
- 2Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 3Climate Rainfall Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 4Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 5Weekend Weather Forecast for USC, Los Angeles, California - The Weather Channel | weather.comweather.com
- 6Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
- 7Monthly Weather Forecast for Blue Lagoon, Miami, Florida - weather.comweather.com
- 8Monthly Weather Forecast for Miami, Florida 33142 - weather.comweather.com
- 9Monthly Weather Forecast for Miami, Florida 33196 - weather.comweather.com
- 10Monthly Weather Forecast for North Bayfront, Miami, Florida - weather.comweather.com
- 11October 31, 2026: Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
7. What Official Guidance Supported High Rainfall Probabilities in Miami and New Orleans?
| Miami Prediction Market Probability | 91% [1] |
|---|---|
| New Orleans Prediction Market Probability | 75% [2] |
| Miami NWS 24-hour Rainfall Accumulation (HREF) | 1–3 inches [3] |
Miami received official guidance indicating a high rain probability. Official National Weather Service (NWS) Miami guidance for Saturday, October 31, 2026, indicated a high probability of rain. Tabular forecasts showed a 60% nighttime and 70% daytime probability of precipitation, with measurable Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) of 0.17 and 0.50 inches, respectively [4][5]. The meteorological basis for this forecast included an upper-level disturbance, a strengthening Atlantic-to-Florida pressure gradient, and increasing easterly flow [3]. High-resolution guidance suggested 24-hour accumulations of 1–3 inches along the East Coast metropolitan area, with a 1-in-10 chance of 2–4 inches in some locations [3]. Prediction markets further supported this, placing Miami among the highest-probability outcomes at 91% [1].
New Orleans' official guidance suggested rain, with market confidence. For New Orleans, official NWS national selected-city guidance for Saturday, October 31, listed showers, directly indicating potential for rain [6]. While the provided information does not contain specific NWS New Orleans guidance or a detailed meteorological basis for high rainfall, prediction markets elevated New Orleans' probability of rain to 75% [2]. These markets resolved based on The Weather Company’s official contract data, where any strictly positive total precipitation counted as "Yes" and trace amounts counted as zero [7].
Sources (7)
- 1Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026?: Live Odds (Full Field) | ContractTaxcontracttax.com
- 2Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 3National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 5National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 6National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 7October 31, 2026: Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
8. How Did the October 31 Storm Systems' Characteristics Differ for Chicago and Denver?
| Chicago Predicted Precipitation (Oct 30, 2026) | 80–89% (prediction market) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Denver Predicted Precipitation (Oct 30, 2026) | 3–4% (prediction market) [1][2] |
| Chicago Oct 31 Normal Precipitation | 0.10 inches [3] |
Specific meteorological details for October 31, 2026, are not available in sources. The provided sources [4][1][5][2] do not contain direct meteorological details for the October 31, 2026 storm systems, such as pressure centers, tracks, precipitation type, intensity, or timing for Chicago and Denver. Consequently, claims about Chicago experiencing rain and Denver experiencing snow on that specific day are not directly supported by the retrieved evidence [4][1][5][2].
Precipitation likelihood differed significantly between Chicago and Denver for October 31. Despite the absence of direct daily forecasts, a significant difference in the predicted likelihood of precipitation was evident. As of October 30, 2026, prediction markets indicated an 80–89% chance of measurable precipitation for Chicago, while Denver was favored at approximately 3–4% [1][2]. This disparity strongly suggested Chicago would experience precipitation, contrasting with a largely dry outlook for Denver [1][2]. Additionally, a National Weather Service October–December 2026 outlook supported generally wetter conditions for Chicago compared to Denver during that seasonal period, although this was not a specific daily forecast [6].
Prediction market criteria clarified precipitation occurrence, not type, for Chicago. The prediction market's resolution criterion was defined as measurable total precipitation exceeding 0 inches, primarily focusing on the occurrence of precipitation rather than its specific type [1][2]. Chicago's climatological normal for October 31 typically includes a high temperature of 55.9°F, a low of 40.1°F, 0.10 inches of precipitation, and virtually no normal snowfall [3]. These historical averages establish a mild late-autumn baseline for Chicago on this date [3].
Sources (6)
- 1Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026?: Live Odds (Full Field) | ContractTaxcontracttax.com
- 2Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3October Normals for Temperature, Precipitation and Snowfall for Chicago, ILweather.gov
- 4Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026? — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 5Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
- 6National Weather Servicepreview-forecast.weather.gov
9. Which Official Weather Stations Are Used for Settlement in Key Kalshi Markets like NYC, LA, and Chicago?
| New York City Precipitation Station | CLINYC [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Chicago Precipitation Station | CLIORD (Chicago O'Hare International Airport) [1][3][2][4][5] |
| Los Angeles Precipitation Station | CLILAX [6][2][7] |
Kalshi's precipitation markets designate specific weather stations and a single settlement source. For daily precipitation markets, specific weather stations are designated for settlement in key cities. New York City utilizes CLINYC [1][2], while Chicago uses CLIORD, which corresponds to Chicago O'Hare International Airport [1][3][2][4][5]. Los Angeles relies on CLILAX [6][2][7]. The official source for market settlement across these precipitation markets is The Weather Company, accessible through weather.com/kalshi [8][2][9].
Precipitation markets resolve to "Yes" for readings strictly above zero inches. A market resolves to 'Yes' if the total precipitation recorded at the named station on the specified date is strictly greater than 0 inches [8][2][9]. Conversely, trace amounts of precipitation and missing daily values are both counted as 0 inches [8][2][9]. An example event, such as the Oct. 31, 2026 precipitation markets, involves a set of separate Yes/No outcome markets for multiple cities, with each city's outcome settling independently based on its corresponding station's precipitation reading [2][9][10].
Sources (10)
- 1Where will it rain on Oct 6, 2026? - Awaiting Resolution | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
- 3Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 10 - Oct 11)? - Result: Atlanta | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 4RAINMassets.kalshi.com
- 5Re: KalshiEX LLC – CFTC Regulation 40.6 Notification Regarding the Amendment of the “Will there be <above/below/between/exactly/at least> <count> inches of rain in <city> in <month>?” Contractassets.kalshi.com
- 6Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 22, 2026? - Esperando resolución | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 7Where will it rain on Oct 23, 2026? - Result: West Palm Beach | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 8Weather Markets | Kalshi Help Centerhelp.kalshi.com
- 9Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 10October 31, 2026: Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
10. What Meteorological Analyses in Late October Indicated a Low Probability of Rain for Seattle and San Francisco?
| Seattle Rain Probability (Oct 31) | About 1% [1] |
|---|---|
| San Francisco Rain Probability (Oct 31) | About 31% [1] |
| Seattle Precipitation (Oct 27-31) | 0.00 inches [2] |
Late October analyses indicated low rain probability for Seattle and San Francisco. Meteorological assessments in late October showed a low likelihood of rain for both cities, primarily due to a distinct dry signal in Seattle's forecasts and consistent observational data for San Francisco [3][4]. This assessment was also reflected in the prediction market, which priced Seattle's chance of measurable rain on October 31 at approximately 1% and San Francisco's at around 31% [1][5][6].
Seattle forecasts showed a clear dry signal by late October. The most prominent meteorological indication was a dry break expected over Seattle [3]. A National Weather Service forecast issued on October 28 specifically described Saturday, October 31, as partly sunny, containing no mention of rain for that day [3]. Seattle received an explicit National Weather Service day-3 forecast confirming a dry Saturday [3]. Later, the Seattle monthly climate report recorded 0.00 inches of precipitation for October 27–31 [2].
San Francisco observational data supported a low rain signal. For San Francisco, observations from October 28–30 consistently indicated no measurable precipitation, alongside partly or mostly cloudy skies, good visibility, and stable sea-level pressure [4]. These conditions reinforced a low near-term probability of rain. However, the evidence for San Francisco was predominantly observational through October 30, rather than stemming from a direct point forecast for October 31 [4].
Sources (6)
- 1Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026?: Live Odds (Full Field) | ContractTaxcontracttax.com
- 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 3National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
- 5Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
- 6Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026? Odds | Kalshi & Polymarketpredictmarketcap.com
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
A strong El Niño in October 2026 favored above-normal precipitation across much of the southern tier, especially near the Gulf Coast and Texas Hill Country, while favoring below-normal precipitation from the Upper Mississippi/western Great Lakes across the northern Rockies, Great Basin, and much of the West Coast [1][2]. A major late-October precipitation catalyst was a Bay of Bengal tropical system: China’s meteorological service forecast heavy to torrential rain from Oct. 27–31 across eastern and northern India, Nepal, western Bhutan, western Bangladesh, and western Myanmar, with 50–90 mm broadly, 130–250 mm in parts of Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh, and localized totals above 300 mm [3]. OpenSnow forecast light showers across the Rockies on Saturday Oct. 31 and a stronger storm reaching California, with heavy rain and the heaviest snow developing in the Sierra Nevada and Tahoe [4]. CW3E’s Oct. 29 outlook indicated additional rainfall for the Southwestern U.S., adding uncertainty and upside risk to rain outcomes in Southern California, Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico [5].
As of Oct. 31, 2026, reported rain, showers, or thunderstorms included Los Angeles, San Francisco, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Hanoi, Manila, Miami, Houston, New Orleans, Honolulu, Las Vegas, Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, Oklahoma City, and several Asian-Pacific cities, including Melbourne, Sydney, Bangkok, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, and Jakarta [6][7]. Europe was mixed: rain was reported or forecast in Belgrade, Bucharest, Sofia, Vienna, Venice, and Warsaw, while many major western and southern cities—including London, Paris, Madrid, Lisbon, and Rome—were dry, cloudy, or foggy [8][7]. Prediction-market snapshots were not fully consistent across venues: Robinhood’s Oct. 31 market showed Minneapolis 53¢, College Station 49¢, and Oklahoma City 44¢, while its broader rainfall page showed Miami 91%, Los Angeles 89%, and Chicago 86% [9][10]. Kalshi/Rain and Snow markets provided additional live catalysts: a daily market showed College Station 65%, Oklahoma City 62%, and Dallas 59%; a weekend Oct. 31–Nov. 1 market showed Oklahoma City and Lexington around 54% [11][12]. Robinhood’s weekend market showed Springfield 53%, Austin 51%, and Denver 45% [13].
Bullish rain/snow catalysts included the Bay of Bengal tropical system, the California/Sierra storm, Southwest rainfall guidance, and El Niño’s wet southern-tier pattern [1][2][4]. Bearish catalysts were dry official observations in many U.S. and European cities, forecast uncertainty, and generally drier October guidance for the northern Rockies, Great Basin, and West Coast outside the incoming California system [1][2][4]. The contract’s official settlement source was The Weather Company, with trace precipitation counted as zero [9].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: November 01, 2026
- Expiration: November 02, 2026
- Closes: November 01, 2026
Sources (13)
- 1Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 2El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlook | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrationnoaa.gov
- 3Global Weather丨Tropical System in the Bay of Bengal to Develop into a Cyclonic Storm India, Nepal, and Other Areas Experience Heavy Precipitationcma.gov.cn
- 4October 30-November 2 Storm Favors California, Utah, and Colorado | US + Canada Daily Snow Forecast | OpenSnowopensnow.com
- 5CW3E Precipitation Outlook: 29 October 2026 - Center for Western Weather and Water Extremescw3e.ucsd.edu
- 6세계의 날씨(10월31일) | 연합뉴스yna.co.kr
- 7PRESS WEATHER NO. 070 - WEATHER OF OTHER CITIESinfo.gov.hk
- 8Forecast for Europe - SHMÚw5.shmu.sk
- 9October 31, 2026: Where will it rain on Oct 31, 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
- 10Climate Rainfall Predictions - Robinhoodrobinhood.com
- 11Where will it rain tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 12Snow & Rain Prediction Markets | Kalshikalshi.com
- 13October 31, 2026: Where will it rain this weekend (Oct 31 - Nov 1) Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 5 resolved YES, 15 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRAIN-26OCT29-WPB: YES (Oct 30, 2026)
- KXRAIN-26OCT29-TTN: NO (Oct 30, 2026)
- KXRAIN-26OCT29-TPA: NO (Oct 30, 2026)
- KXRAIN-26OCT29-STL: YES (Oct 30, 2026)
- KXRAIN-26OCT29-SGF: NO (Oct 30, 2026)
