Short Answer

The highest temperature in New York City on October 31, 2026, is likely to be 58°F or below. This aligns with the National Weather Service's forecast for general daytime temperatures around 53–58°F, with the market pricing this outcome at 72.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The market probability climbed as official weather forecasts were released. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for Manhattan, projecting a dry and sunny October 31 with an afternoon maximum near 62–63°F, appears to be the primary driver. This release coincided with the price moving from a low of 71.0% to a high of 77.0% on October 30.
This upward move was reinforced by corroborating data from other sources. Forecasts for Brooklyn indicated highs around 60°F, while specific neighborhood reports varied from 60°F to as high as 67°F. The consistent signal across multiple models and locations that the temperature would exceed the apparent threshold of the contract solidified trader conviction. The market's current price of 76.0% reflects the high probability assigned to these professional weather projections.
  • 58° or below is favored, given NWS projects daytime temperatures 53–58°F.
  • The NWS forecast and historical normal both project a 59°F maximum for Oct 31, 2026.
  • Market sentiment aligns, strongly favoring a maximum temperature of 58°F or below.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
58° or below 72.0% 71.4% The NWS forecast for October 31, 2026, projected general daytime temperatures around 53–58°F.
59° to 60° 24.0% 24.7% The NWS forecast for October 31, 2026, projected a high of 59°F, matching the historical normal.
61° to 62° 3.0% 2.0% The latest NWS forecast for October 31, 2026, was 59°F, falling below this range.
65° to 66° 1.0% 0.7% The latest NWS forecast for October 31, 2026, was 59°F, significantly below this range.
63° to 64° 1.0% 0.7% The latest NWS forecast for October 31, 2026, was 59°F, substantially below this range.

Current Context

Official forecasts projected October 31, 2026, temperatures near 60-63°F. The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for Manhattan on October 30, 2026, projected a dry, sunny October 31 with an afternoon maximum near 62–63°F [1]. The NWS matrix showed temperatures reaching 60°F by 2 p.m. and 61°F by 5 p.m. [1]. Brooklyn forecasts indicated highs around 60°F [2]. Neighborhood forecasts varied, showing approximately 60–61°F in Manhattan and up to 67°F in one Brooklyn report, reflecting station and forecast-model differences [3][4][5]. A contemporaneous citywide weekend report summarized the official forecast as a high near 61°F [6]. Expected Halloween conditions included dry and mostly sunny weather, light north-to-NNW winds, and no significant precipitation risk; the afternoon was anticipated to be cooler than Friday. The Village Halloween Parade was expected to experience temperatures in the upper 50s to about 60°F [6][1][2].
The prediction market centered its expectations on LaGuardia Airport observations. The relevant prediction market defines the outcome using the Weather Underground daily high at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) [7]. As of October 30, 2026, displayed contracts were >57 at 78¢, >58 at 67¢, and >59 at 28¢, indicating market pricing favored a high above 57°F but gave lower odds to exceeding 59°F [7]. The best pre-event estimate for the highest temperature at KLGA was approximately 59–61°F, aligning with the official Manhattan forecast centered near 61–63°F [3][6][1][7]. The October 31, 2026, event day contract was intended to resolve after the Weather Underground daily observation became available, typically within about one hour [7]. A separate market aggregator showed a leading outcome of 53°F or below at 35.5%, but this reported zero volume and did not display an observed high, making it weaker evidence than the KLGA-specific market and official forecast [8]. Historically, the Brooklyn/LaGuardia-area almanac lists a normal October 31 high around 60°F, with a record high of 74°F in 1961 [2]. The retrieved sources did not present an authoritative final observed KLGA high [7].
Sources (8)
  1. 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  2. 2Brooklyn, NY Severe Weather Alert | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  3. 3New York City, NY Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  4. 4New York City, NY Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  5. 5New York City, NY Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  6. 6Dry and cooler for Halloween and Sunday's NYC Marathon: the weekend forecast · NewYorkNews.appnewyorknews.app
  7. 7October 31, 2026: New York City Daily Temperature High October 31 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  8. 8Highest temperature in NYC on October 31? | Futurefuture.news

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the "58° or below" contract, a YES resolution occurs if the highest temperature in New York City today is 58°F or lower, and a NO resolution if it is above 58°F. The maximum payout date for this market is November 1, 2026. If a material error is found in the initial data, expiration may be delayed until corrected data or the Expiration Date, whichever comes first; if no data is available, the market resolves to the last fair price determined by Kalshi.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
58° or below $0.72 $0.30 72%
59° to 60° $0.25 $0.76 24%
61° to 62° $0.04 $0.97 3%
63° to 64° $0.01 $1.00 1%
65° to 66° $0.01 $1.00 1%
67° or above $0.01 $1.00 1%

Market Discussion

As of October 30–31, 2026, weather forecasts for New York City on October 31 predicted a high temperature of approximately 58–61°F, aligning with the historical average of 59°F for that date [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Prior to October 31, 2026, prediction markets generally expected the high to be centered near 58°F, though with meaningful uncertainty spanning 59–61°F [1][2]. The actual settled high at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA), the market's specified benchmark, was not confirmed by the available research [1][2][5][9][10][11].

Sources (11)
  1. 1October 31, 2026: New York City Daily Temperature High October 31 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in New York City tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  3. 3National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  4. 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  5. 5Area Forecast Discussionweather.gov
  6. 6N.Y. weather: When will it feel like fall? A look at October forecast - silive.comsilive.com
  7. 7What to Wear in New York in October | AI Outfit Planner: PutTogetherputtogether.world
  8. 8New York City, Central Park Fall Weather, Average Temperature (New York, United States) - Weather Sparkweatherspark.com
  9. 9Weather for Halloween and NYC Marathon weekend looks sunny and dry - CBS New Yorkcbsnews.com
  10. 10Spooky NYC forecast: Halloween weekend brings crisp 50s, dry marathon | FOX 5 New Yorkfox5ny.com
  11. 11Lowest temperature in NYC on October 31?polymarket.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 65 Caution

Integrity risk· Resolution quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score73Good

Resolution quality is low (30), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score31High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score65Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 5 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
90Strong

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
85Strong

No privileged early knowledge

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
30High Risk

No suspicious activity on any screen

Settlement depends on interpretation — verify the rules and source before trading.

Resolution rules read: Ambiguous

Liquidity
73Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

6 contracts · worst first

61° to 62°5
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

67° or above33
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

63° to 64°36
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

65° to 66°40
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

59° to 60°50
Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

58° or below85
Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.3% of price over 15 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,647 · 24h
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

6 contracts · worst first

58° or below—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

59° to 60°—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

61° to 62°—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

63° to 64°—
No significant move (13h)

Price was stable over the last 13 hours.

65° to 66°—
No significant move (13h)

Price was stable over the last 13 hours.

67° or above—
No significant move (14h)

Price was stable over the last 14 hours.

Rule clarity
40Ambiguous

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

6 contracts · worst first

58° or below40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
59° to 60°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
61° to 62°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
63° to 64°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
65° to 66°40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
67° or above40
Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
31High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 39 (notional-weighted across 6 scored legs)

$100 order: 2.0c slippage (~3% of a 71c contract)

$1,000 order: 6.2c slippage (~9% of a 71c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

58° or belowPrimary40Market scoreLiquidity85Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
85 · Deep · high confidence

Typical bar range 1.3% of price over 15 traded bars

24h traded notional $3,647 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
59° to 60°40Market scoreLiquidity50Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
50 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
61° to 62°5Market scoreLiquidity5Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 5
Liquidity
5 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
63° to 64°36Market scoreLiquidity36Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 36
Liquidity
36 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (13h)

Price was stable over the last 13 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
65° to 66°40Market scoreLiquidity40Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 40
Liquidity
40 · Thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (13h)

Price was stable over the last 13 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear
67° or above33Market scoreLiquidity33Move quality–Rule clarity40
Why 33
Liquidity
33 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (14h)

Price was stable over the last 14 hours.

Rule clarity
40 · Ambiguous · low confidence

Outcome language is subjective — the result is a judgment call.

objective outcome · Flaggedofficial source · Uncleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 31, 2026

5. What short-term atmospheric events could cause the Oct 31, 2026 temperature at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) to deviate significantly from the consensus forecast?

Probability of 58F or belowApproximately 74–76% (October 31, 2026) [1][2][3]
Consensus Temperature ForecastStrongly cool, 58°F or below [1][2][3]
Prediction Market ResolutionNew York City climate-day maximum (KNYC/CLINYC) [2]
The market consensus favors a cool temperature for October 31, 2026. The consensus forecast indicates a strongly cool temperature for October 31, 2026, with a 74–76% probability priced for 58°F or below [1][2][3]. While short-term atmospheric events could cause the temperature at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) to deviate significantly from this consensus, these are considered conditional risk scenarios rather than confirmed claims of a specific storm or front [1][2][3]. The retrieved evidence does not provide a reliable, official October 31, 2026 KLGA hourly forecast or a confirmed synoptic event [1][2]. Significant deviations resulting in a materially warmer high could stem from a warm-sector intrusion, pre-frontal southerly flow, or an unexpectedly fast or slow cold-frontal passage, with southerly or southwesterly flow specifically raising temperatures for KLGA [1][2][3].
Colder deviations could arise from strong post-frontal air masses or other factors. Conversely, a materially colder high could be caused by an unexpectedly strong post-frontal air mass, radiational cooling, or persistent onshore flow, where easterly or northeasterly flow can suppress daytime warming for KLGA [1][2][3]. Additionally, a coastal low or nor’easter shifting track could alter cloud cover, precipitation, wind direction, and cold-air advection, leading to temperature shifts [1][2][3]. For KLGA, marine and urban/coastal boundary-layer effects are important; low cloud, rain timing, and cloud breaks can shift the daily maximum by several degrees even without a major synoptic-system track change [1][2][3]. It is also noteworthy that the prediction market resolves on the New York City climate-day maximum for KNYC/CLINYC, not strictly the KLGA airport observation, meaning station differences can be a factor [2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1New York City Weather on Oct 31, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  2. 2Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 31, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
  3. 3Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

6. How accurate have 3-day forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS) and Weather Underground (WU) been for LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) in late October historically?

NWS OKX forecast max temp for KLGA Oct 31, 202663°F [1][2]
NWS OKX detailed sequence peak for KLGA Oct 31, 202662°F [1][2]
NWS OKX area matrix max for Oct 31, 2026 (nearby)66°F [2][3][4]
Historical accuracy for LaGuardia Airport's 3-day forecasts is unavailable. The retrieved sources do not provide a historical archive of realized-vs-issued 72-hour temperature forecasts for LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) in late October. Furthermore, no usable Weather Underground forecast archive or verification dataset was found in the retrieved sources [2][1]. Consequently, it is not possible to calculate a defensible numerical late-October historical accuracy rate or an NWS-versus-Weather Underground comparison from the available evidence [2][1].
NWS forecasts for October 31, 2026, showed differing temperature guidance. For the October 31, 2026 event, the NWS OKX Point Forecast Matrix, issued at 5:51 AM EDT on Wednesday, October 28, forecast a Saturday, October 31 maximum of 63°F for LaGuardia Airport [1][2]. The detailed temperature sequence from the same product peaked at 62°F during its listed Saturday hours [1][2]. NWS products near the target date also gave materially different guidance for nearby locations, with an OKX area matrix listing a maximum of 66°F, while a New York point forecast listed a Saturday high of 62°F [2][3][4].
Forecast examples are not verified historical LaGuardia observations. These specific examples for October 31, 2026, are not actual KLGA observations and should not be treated as historical verification [2][3][4]. While NWS guidance around 72 hours before Oct 31 indicated temperatures in the low 60s at KLGA, the prediction market's stated resolution is not for KLGA. It resolves instead on CLINYC/New York City (KNYC, NWS OKX) using The Weather Company daily maximum [5][6][1]. Due to differences in station and resolution definitions, direct comparison between these forecasts and market resolutions is inappropriate [5][6][1].
Sources (6)
  1. 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  2. 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  3. 3National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  4. 4National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  5. 5Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 31, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
  6. 6New York City Weather on Oct 31, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com

7. How do historical October 31 high temperatures at LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) typically compare to readings from Central Park and other NYC-area stations?

Oct 31 normal max temp, LaGuardia61°F (1991

–2020 daily normal) [1][2]

Oct 31 normal max temp, Central Park59°F (1991

–2020 daily normal) [1][2]

Prediction market lean (Oct 30 –31, 2026)76% for 58°F or below (NYC/KNYC maximum) [3][4][5]
LaGuardia's October 31 normal maximum is typically 2°F warmer than Central Park. Historical data from 1991–2020 show that the normal maximum temperature on October 31 at LaGuardia Airport is 61°F, which is 2°F higher than Central Park's 59°F [1][2]. This consistent warm bias is also evident in the normal minimum temperatures, which are 48°F at LaGuardia and 46°F at Central Park, and in the mean temperatures of 54°F versus 53°F, respectively [1][2]. Both locations recorded their highest October 31 temperature at 81°F in 1946, though this specific shared record does not imply LaGuardia is consistently warmer on every individual day [1][2].
Prediction markets for 2026 focus on Central Park observations, showing a cooler trend. The prediction market for the October 31, 2026, maximum temperature is based on the Central Park/New York City climate series (CLINYC) observation, not LaGuardia's [3][4][5]. Market snapshots taken between October 30 and 31, 2026, indicated a strong probability (76% in one snapshot, 74% on another market page) for the NYC/KNYC maximum temperature to be 58°F or below [3][4][5]. Additionally, one model reported a rise to 37% likelihood for this 58°F or below outcome [3][4][5]. It is important to note that NOAA GSOD daily maximum data may differ from local climate reports due to factors such as GMT usage, varying station definitions, or differences in observation windows [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Forecast Office New York, NYweather.gov
  2. 2Forecast Office New York, NYweather.gov
  3. 3Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 31, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
  4. 4Weather & Climate Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
  5. 5New York City Weather on Oct 31, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  6. 6NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION GLOBAL SURFACE SUMMARY OF DAY DATA (GSOD) (OVER 9000 WORLDWIDE STATIONS) 10/28/2020 ******************************************************************** SPECIAL NOTES The data summaries provided here are based on data exchanged under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) World Weather Watch Program according to WMO Resolution 40 (Cg-XII). This allows WMO member countries to place restrictions on the use or re-export of their data for commercial purposes outside of the receiving country. Data for selected countries may, at times, not be available through this system. Those countries' data summaries and products which are available here are intended for free and unrestricted use in research, education, and other non-commercial activities. However, for non-U.S. locations' data, the data or any derived product shall not be provided to other users or be used for the re-export of commercial services. To determine off-line availability of any country's data, please contact NCEI at ncei.orders@noaa.gov 828-271-4800 See our contact page at: www.ncei.noaa.gov/contact The data are available via: Web Accessible Folder -- https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/global-summary-of-the-day/ Common Access -- https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/search/data-search/global-summary-of the-dayncei.noaa.gov

8. Are ensemble forecast datasets from the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) models publicly available to track the probability range for LaGuardia's temperature on Oct 31, 2026?

ECMWF Ensemble Members50 perturbed members [1][2][3]
ECMWF Forecast Range15 days [1][2][3]
Prediction Market Resolution StationKNYC (New York City climate station CLINYC) [4][5]
Ensemble forecast data is available, but a combined probability range is not. Ensemble forecast datasets from both European (ECMWF) and American (NOAA GEFS) models are publicly available for October 31, 2026, to estimate temperature around LaGuardia [1][2][3][6][7][8]. However, the retrieved information does not report a precise combined ECMWF-plus-GEFS probability range for LaGuardia's temperature, as the sources do not provide individual forecast values, station interpolation, bias correction, or calculated probabilities [1][2][3][6][7].
Both ECMWF and NOAA GEFS offer extensive publicly available data. ECMWF publicly provides its 15-day ENS ensemble forecast, which includes 50 perturbed members, direct surface-level fields, and daily probability products [1][2][3]. Similarly, NOAA GEFS ensemble data are publicly downloadable; the NOMADS listing for October 30, 2026, shows GEFS cycles 00/06/12/18 and temperature-related fields. For an estimate around October 31, 2026, GEFS data can be extracted near LaGuardia's grid point from these available atmospheric fields [6][7][8][9].
A manual workflow is needed for temperature estimates, with market caveats. A practical workflow involves obtaining the latest ECMWF ENS and NOAA GEFS member files, selecting the grid cell nearest KLGA, deriving each member's daily maximum 2-m temperature, converting units, and summarizing the member distribution [1][2][10][6][7]. However, the search results do not present a station-specific KLGA ensemble output or a computed member-by-member temperature range [6][9]. It is also important to note that prediction markets typically resolve using the New York City climate station CLINYC/KNYC, not LaGuardia (KLGA), positioning a KLGA model estimate as a proxy for the settlement series [4][5].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Atmospheric model Ensemble 15-day forecast | ECMWFecmwf.int
  2. 2Atmospheric model Ensemble 15-day forecast (Set III - ENS) | ECMWFecmwf.int
  3. 3The Future of ECMWF Data Policyevents.ecmwf.int
  4. 4New York City Weather on Oct 31, 2026 | Prediction Market Forecastpredictmarketcap.com
  5. 5Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 31, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
  6. 6Grib Filter gefs_atmos_0p50anomads.ncep.noaa.gov
  7. 7GEFS Reforecast V2 Project: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratorypsl.noaa.gov
  8. 8GEFS Reforecast V2 Project: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratorypsl.noaa.gov
  9. 9NOAA Implements its First UFS-Based Global-Scale Coupled Forecast System – Unified Forecast Systemufs.epic.noaa.gov
  10. 10AIFS forecast - AIFS Ensemble | ECMWFecmwf.int

9. Based on the 30-year climatological record for LaGuardia Airport (KLGA), what is the historical frequency of October 31 highs falling into the '63° to 64°' and '67° or above' brackets?

Climatological Period1991 2020 [1][2]
October 31 Normal High (KLGA)61 F (also 60 F) [2][3]
Prediction Market Brackets63 64 F and 67 F or above [4]
Historical frequencies for specific temperature brackets are unavailable. The historical frequency of October 31 high temperatures for LaGuardia Airport (KLGA) falling into the prediction market brackets of '63° to 64°F' and '67°F or above' cannot be determined from the available sources [4]. This is because the individual daily high temperatures from the relevant 30-year climatological period of 1991-2020 are not published, which prevents a responsible calculation [2][3][1].
LaGuardia's climate record offers normal temperature data. For October 31 at KLGA, the daily normal high temperature is reported as 61°F in the NWS almanac, with another presentation showing 60°F [2][3]. While normal and extreme temperatures for this date are established, the absence of individual daily maximum temperatures for the 1991-2020 period means that a defensible method, which would require analyzing the daily maximum temperature series for each October 31 during this period, cannot be applied [2][3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1La Guardia Airport, NY Historical Dataweather.gov
  2. 2Forecast Office New York, NYweather.gov
  3. 3Astoria, NY Weather in October: Normal & Record Highs and Lows | WxDialwxdial.com
  4. 4Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 31, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The prevailing consensus for Saturday, October 31, 2026, indicated a high near 59°F for New York City [1][2][3]. The National Weather Service forecast, issued Friday, October 30, 2026, at 2:31 PM EDT, projected 59°F with dry weather and daytime temperatures around 53–58°F for Central Park [1][2]. Weather.city's updated NDFD forecast also showed a 59°F high [3]. Kalshi probability metrics assigned 77% to 58°F or below, 19% to 59–60°F, and 2% each for 61–62°F and 63–64°F [4]. Bullish catalysts for exceeding this forecast included stronger-than-anticipated warming or warmer readings from urban or eastern stations [1][5][2]. Conversely, bearish factors comprised the clear, dry, north-to-northwest flow and cooler air following Friday's warmth, which supported a high near 59–61°F [1][5][2].
Basis risk from varied station definitions emerged as a material catalyst [6]. Robinhood's daily-high contract resolves using the Weather Underground LaGuardia Airport station (KLGA), distinct from Central Park. Its displayed contract ladder showed >57 at 78¢, >58 at 67¢, and >59 at 28¢ [6]. A separate market specification tracks CLINYC/KNYC at the NWS OKX climate location, resolving on the maximum temperature for the local October 31 climate day [7]. Unofficial Weather Underground point forecasts displayed significant intracity dispersion, ranging from 61°F to 72°F across NYC locations; these references to personal-weather-station locations offer weaker evidence than the NWS Central Park forecast [8][9][10][11][12].
Market resolution risk is central, requiring a trade thesis to match the exact station, daily boundary, rounding, and revision rules [4][6][7]. Kalshi grouped outcomes into ranges [4]. The market observation window centered on Saturday, October 31, for the daytime maximum [1][5][4][6]. Forecasts suggested approximately 55–60°F during the Village Halloween Parade around 7 PM [1][5]. Market settlement and finalization timing varies by venue on Sunday, November 1, and official station reports are subject to revision before final resolution [1][5][4][6][7].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: November 01, 2026
  • Expiration: November 07, 2026
  • Closes: November 01, 2026
Sources (12)
  1. 1National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  2. 2National Weather Serviceforecast.weather.gov
  3. 3Weather.city · New York City, NYweather.city
  4. 4Highest temperature in New York City tomorrow? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  5. 5Dry and cooler for Halloween and Sunday's NYC Marathon: the weekend forecast · NewYorkNews.appnewyorknews.app
  6. 6October 31, 2026: New York City Daily Temperature High October 31 2026 Prediction Marketrobinhood.com
  7. 7Highest temperature in New York City on Oct 31, 2026 — forecast vs market | PropBetEdge Predictionspredictions.propbetedge.ai
  8. 8New York City, NY Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  9. 9New York City, NY Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  10. 10New York City, NY Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  11. 11New York City, NY Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com
  12. 12New York City, NY Hourly Weather Forecast | Weather Undergroundwunderground.com

12. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHIGHNY-26OCT29-T74: NO (Oct 30, 2026)
  • KXHIGHNY-26OCT29-T67: YES (Oct 30, 2026)
  • KXHIGHNY-26OCT29-B73.5: NO (Oct 30, 2026)
  • KXHIGHNY-26OCT29-B71.5: NO (Oct 30, 2026)
  • KXHIGHNY-26OCT29-B69.5: NO (Oct 30, 2026)