Short Answer

Both the model and the Kalshi market overwhelmingly agree that the highest temperature in LA on Apr 5, 2026 will be 78° to 79°, with only minor residual uncertainty.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which speculates on the high temperature in Los Angeles on April 5, 2026, exhibits a decisive downward trend. The price began at a 35.0% probability and declined over its lifetime to a final price of 1.0%. The most significant price movement was a sharp 28.0 percentage point drop from 35.0% to 7.0% on April 4, 2026. This precipitous decline is characteristic of weather-based markets as the resolution date approaches. As short-term, high-accuracy weather forecasts for April 5th became available, traders adjusted their positions to reflect the near-certainty that the temperature threshold would not be met, causing the probability to collapse just before the event.
The volume patterns indicate strong conviction, particularly around the resolution period. With a total of 14,055 contracts traded, the market saw significant activity. The volume spike on April 6th, the day after resolution, suggests traders were closing out their positions once the official temperature was recorded and the market outcome was confirmed. Early trading saw the price hold near a resistance level of 35.0%, but as the event neared, this level was abandoned. The final price near 1.0% acted as a firm support level, reflecting the market's final assessment.
Overall, the chart illustrates a shift from long-term climate speculation to short-term weather forecasting. Initial market sentiment gave the event a roughly one-in-three chance of occurring. However, this sentiment eroded completely, becoming overwhelmingly bearish in the final 24 hours. The price action demonstrates the market efficiently processing new, definitive information—in this case, the imminent weather forecast—to arrive at a confident conclusion about the outcome.
  • PDO cool phase expected through spring 2026, favoring cooler temperatures.
  • Santa Ana winds are historically rare in Los Angeles during April.
  • A deep marine layer commonly suppresses Los Angeles spring temperatures.
  • NOAA's CFSv2 model tends to over-predict Southern California spring temperatures.
  • ENSO forecasts for March-May 2026 are currently unavailable.
  • Recent price spike and drop indicate significant market volatility.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

Outcome: 78° to 79°

📈 April 05, 2026: 76.0pp spike

Price increased from 23.0% to 99.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

Outcome: 73° or below

📉 April 04, 2026: 28.0pp drop

Price decreased from 35.0% to 7.0%

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

For the '78° to 79°' outcome, a YES resolution is triggered if the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles Airport, CA, on April 5, 2026, is between 78-79° as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily); otherwise, it resolves to NO, as outcomes are mutually exclusive. The Last Trading Time is 11:59 PM ET on April 5, 2026, and the market expires by April 6, 2026, at 3:59 am EDT, or sooner following the data release for April 5, 2026. The NWS Climatological Report is the exclusive official source for verification, and traders should be cautious when interpreting preliminary NWS data due to potential rounding and conversion nuances.

Market Discussion

While the market overwhelmingly predicts the highest temperature in LA on April 5, 2026, will be between 78° to 79°, the discussion reveals some frustration and disagreement among traders. Participants betting on slightly higher or lower ranges expressed confusion or dissatisfaction, with one user noting observed temperatures around 79-77 while betting on 74-75, and another questioning why the temperature hadn't hit 84° across LA. A key clarification shared in the discussion is that the market specifically tracks the temperature recorded at Los Angeles Airport (LAX) as per the NWS report, addressing discrepancies with general LA temperatures.

5. Can ENSO Forecasts Predict LA Temperatures in March-May 2026?

ENSO Forecast HorizonTypically 9 to 12 months [1]
March-May 2026 ENSO ForecastNot available from current quick look resources [1]
LA Temp Distribution by ENSO RegimeCannot be compiled from available sources [1]
Long-range ENSO forecasts for March-May 2026 are currently unavailable. A specific probabilistic ENSO forecast for the March-April-May 2026 period cannot be determined from available quick look resources. ENSO forecast plumes from institutions like IRI and CPC generally extend 9 to 12 months into the future, reflecting the practical skill limits for such long-range predictions. Consequently, a probabilistic state (La Niña, Neutral, or El Niño) for March-April-May 2026 falls beyond the typical forecast horizons covered by current resources [1].
Historical LA temperatures cannot be correlated with specific ENSO regimes. While historical daily high temperatures for downtown Los Angeles (USC station) on April 5th are accessible, the provided sources do not enable the correlation of these temperatures with specific historical ENSO regimes (La Niña, Neutral, or El Niño) to determine their respective distributions. To establish such distributions, each historical April 5th temperature would require cross-referencing with the prevailing ENSO state for that period. However, the research materials do not contain the specific historical ENSO classifications for each year's temperature data, nor a pre-compiled analysis of temperature distributions by ENSO regime, preventing direct compilation from the given information [1].
Sources (1)
  1. 1IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | March 2026 Quick Lookiri.columbia.edu

6. Will Spring 2026 Los Angeles Temperatures Be Cool Due to PDO?

PDO Forecast Spring 2026Expected to remain in cool phase [1]
Current PDO TrendNegative (cool phase) since mid-2020, strongly negative since mid-2022 [1]
Cool PDO & LA TempsCorrelates with cooler-than-average conditions [2]
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is expected to remain in its cool phase. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is broadly anticipated to remain in its cool (negative) phase for Spring 2026. The PDO index has shown a consistent negative trend since mid-2020, reaching a strongly negative state by mid-2022 [1]. While a transition to a warm phase is projected at some point, it is not foreseen in the immediate future. Current forecasts indicate the cool phase will likely dominate until sometime within the 2025-2027 period [1]. A cycle change to the warm phase is specifically not expected in late 2024 or early 2025, confirming a continued cool phase for the earlier part of this timeframe, including Spring 2026 [1].
Analyzing past Los Angeles temperatures requires specific historical data. This specific analysis, correlating the 10 warmest and 10 coolest April 5ths in Los Angeles over the past 50 years with the concurrent PDO phase, necessitates detailed historical data extraction. This involves cross-referencing daily temperature records for Los Angeles from sources such as [3] with monthly PDO index values from historical datasets like [4], [5], or [6]. Based on general scientific understanding, however, there is a recognized correlation between PDO phases and temperatures along the Pacific coast. A positive (warm) phase of the PDO is typically linked to warmer-than-average conditions in areas like the North American Pacific coast, including Los Angeles [2]. Conversely, a negative (cool) phase of the PDO is generally associated with cooler-than-average conditions in these regions [2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Are We Due for a Cycle Change of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation?climateimpactcompany.com
  2. 2https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillationen.wikipedia.org
  3. 3Los Angeles April 5 Weather Recordsextremeweatherwatch.com
  4. 4ERDDAP - Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index - Make A Graphoceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov
  5. 5El Nino Monitoring and Outlook / TCCdata.jma.go.jp
  6. 6Pdo.datapsl.noaa.gov

7. How Frequent Are Santa Ana Winds and Marine Layers in Early April, Los Angeles?

Strong Santa Ana Winds in AprilApproximately 0.66% of days [1]
Deep Marine Layer in Early AprilVery common during spring; specific percentage for "deep" not provided [2]
El Niño's Impact on Santa Ana WindsLess frequent in early winter, more frequent in late winter (Jan-Mar) [1]
Strong Santa Ana winds are rare in early April, while marine layer patterns are common. Historically, strong offshore 'Santa Ana' wind events in Los Angeles during the first week of April are infrequent, occurring on average about 0.2 days per month in April, which translates to approximately 0.66% of days [1]. In contrast, deep onshore 'marine layer' patterns are a very common and persistent feature of the Southern California climate during spring. While specific historical percentages for "deep" marine layer events during the first week of April are not explicitly detailed, the marine layer is often described as persistent and deep throughout spring and early summer [2].
ENSO and PDO significantly impact Santa Ana wind probabilities. The probability of Santa Ana wind events is influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and, to a lesser extent, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Strong El Niño events correlate with less frequent Santa Ana winds in early winter but show increased frequency in late winter, specifically January–March [1]. Conversely, La Niña conditions are associated with an enhanced frequency of Santa Ana winds, particularly during the fall and early winter [3]. The warm phase of the PDO also contributes to increased Santa Ana activity in early winter, although its overall impact is considered less significant compared to ENSO [3].
ENSO and PDO impacts on the marine layer are not well-documented. The provided research does not offer specific information or data detailing how the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) shift the frequency or depth of deep onshore 'marine layer' patterns in the Los Angeles area during early April [2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Santa Ana Winds: A Descriptive Climatologyjournals.ametsoc.org
  2. 2The Marine Layer, Coastal Fog, and the Los Angeles Basintheweatherprediction.com
  3. 3Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their climatology, extremes, and behavior spanning six and a half decadesagupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

8. Do Climate Models Over-predict Southern California Spring Temperatures?

NOAA CFSv2 Warm Bias0.9 to 2.7 °F (0.5 to 1.5 °C) for 2-m air temperature [1]
NOAA CFSv2 PredictionSystematically over-predicts springtime temperatures [1]
ECMWF SEAS5 SoCal April BiasNot specifically available for April maximum temperatures at 1-year lead time [2]
NOAA's CFSv2 model systematically over-predicts springtime temperatures for Southern California. For a Southern California grid point, NOAA's Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) exhibits a known systematic warm bias in its 2-meter air temperature forecasts during the March-April-May (MAM) season. This bias, observed over the Western United States including Southern California, typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.5 °C, which translates to approximately 0.9 to 2.7 °F [1]. Consequently, CFSv2 systematically over-predicts springtime heat for this specific region and season.
ECMWF's SEAS5 lacks specific bias data for Southern California springtime maximum temperatures. While ECMWF's Seasonal Forecast System 5 (SEAS5) generally features reduced biases compared to its predecessors, regional biases can persist. However, the available research does not provide a specific mean bias error in °F for SEAS5's April maximum temperatures at a 1-year lead time for a Southern California grid point. Therefore, it is not possible to definitively determine from the provided sources whether SEAS5 systematically over- or under-predicts springtime heat for this precise region and forecast horizon. More broadly, General Circulation Models (GCMs) are acknowledged to have "substantial biases" in temperature over California, often necessitating bias correction in regional downscaling efforts [2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Sources of Bias in the Monthly CFSv2 Forecast Climatologyjournals.ametsoc.org
  2. 2Data Adoption Justification Memo (for California's Fifth Climate Change Assessment): 04 Bias Correction in WRF and LOCA2 projectionsenergy.ca.gov

9. What Factors Affect Los Angeles Maximum Temperature Forecast Accuracy?

Critical Forecast Variance SourceForecasted depth of the marine inversion layer [1], [2]
Directly Influenced by InversionCloud dissipation and sea breeze effects [1], [2]
Historical >5F Error 'Bust' Rate (3-day)Not explicitly detailed numerically in provided sources [3], [4], [5]
For Los Angeles's maximum temperature forecasts within the final 72 hours, the forecasted depth of the marine inversion layer is the most critical source of forecast variance [1], [2]. This atmospheric layer traps cool, moist marine air near the surface, directly influencing how quickly marine layer clouds dissipate during the day. This, in turn, dictates the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface and the potential for warming before the cooling sea breeze begins [2]. The inversion's depth also modulates the timing and strength of the sea breeze, which is a major factor in coastal temperature regulation [2], [6], [7]. Its depth is a foundational element contributing to forecast uncertainty, contrasting with larger-scale synoptic features such as cloud cover from an incoming trough [8], [9].
Historical forecast 'bust' rates for Los Angeles maximum temperatures require specific verification reports. Specialized documents, including those titled "Weather Forecast Accuracy for Los Angeles, California" [3], [4], and [5], are relevant for such statistics. These resources typically detail the percentage of forecasts that fall within specified error margins for daily maximum temperatures. However, while these are the appropriate references, the exact historical 'bust' rate for a greater than 5°F error within the 72-hour forecast window is not explicitly detailed in the provided textual descriptions. Near-surface forecast verification statistics for operational models generally indicate efforts toward achieving high accuracy within this short-range timeframe [10].
Sources (10)
  1. 1WRF inversion base height ensembles for simulating marine boundary layer stratocumulussciencedirect.com
  2. 2The Marine Layer, Coastal Fog, and the Los Angeles Basintheweatherprediction.com
  3. 3Weather Forecast Accuracy for Los Angeles, Californiaforecastadvisor.com
  4. 4Weather Forecast Accuracy for Los Angeles, Californiaforecastadvisor.com
  5. 5Weather Forecast Accuracy for Los Angeles, Californiaforecastadvisor.com
  6. 6Sea breeze: Structure, forecasting, and impacts - Miller - 2003 - Reviews of Geophysics - Wiley Online Libraryagupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
  7. 7Marine Meteorology 4: Sea Breeze | PredictWind Help Centerhelp.predictwind.com
  8. 8A Deficit of Seasonal Temperature Forecast Skill over West Coast Regions in NMMEjournals.ametsoc.org
  9. 9Here's why your weather app struggles to get S.F. forecasts rightweb2.w.sfchronicle.com
  10. 10Near-Surface Forecast Verification Statistics for Operational NCEP modelsemc.ncep.noaa.gov

11. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXHIGHLAX-26APR04-T85: YES (Apr 05, 2026)
  • KXHIGHLAX-26APR04-T78: NO (Apr 05, 2026)
  • KXHIGHLAX-26APR04-B84.5: NO (Apr 05, 2026)
  • KXHIGHLAX-26APR04-B82.5: NO (Apr 05, 2026)
  • KXHIGHLAX-26APR04-B80.5: NO (Apr 05, 2026)