Where will it rain this weekend (Nov 7 - Nov 8)?
Short Answer
Rain is likely in Boston this weekend (Nov 7 - Nov 8), with the market pricing it at 90.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's initial and largest price move was driven by local weather forecasts for Seattle. A 55 percentage point spike on November 2 followed reports, including one from WeatherBug, indicating a high probability of rain in that city during the November 7-8 weekend. More than half the market's total volume was traded around this period, signaling conviction behind the move.
A subsequent 9 percentage point spike on November 3 appears linked to a separate November 1 report announcing storms for the US Southwest and Gulf Coast. These regional drivers are consistent with broader meteorological context. Forecasts call for an atmospheric river to affect the West Coast around November 6-7, and a strong El Niño pattern is expected to produce above-normal precipitation in the southern US. Separately, forecasts for an unstable weather front over Italy on November 7 contributed to the market's overall sentiment.
- Seattle shows high probability; rain is expected across the Pacific Northwest.
- College Station shows high probability, aligning with expected Southern Plains rain.
- Boston, Providence, Philadelphia indicate higher odds, consistent with early November forecasts.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Palm Beach | 33.0% | 30.0% | The market anticipates rain in West Palm Beach this weekend. |
| Pittsburgh | 69.0% | 66.0% | Weather forecasts indicate rain for Pittsburgh this weekend. |
| Miami | 32.0% | 29.0% | The market anticipates rain in Miami this weekend. |
| Philadelphia | 74.0% | 71.0% | Weather forecasts indicate rain for Philadelphia this weekend. |
| Trenton | 47.0% | 44.0% | The market anticipates rain in Trenton this weekend. |
Current Context
North America's West Coast expects rain from an atmospheric river. An atmospheric river event is forecast to impact the West Coast of North America, with peak intensity for the first event centered on November 6–7, 2026 [1]. The November 2026 climate outlook for the United States, influenced by a strong El Niño, favors above-normal precipitation in the southern United States, parts of the Central/Northern Plains, and the Southwest early in the month [2].
European and Asian regions forecast rain over the weekend. Italy anticipates a quick unstable weather front on Saturday, November 7, 2026, particularly affecting the Center-South regions with rain and localized thunderstorms. General stabilization is expected on Sunday, November 8 [3][4]. In Thailand, Bangkok and Phuket are forecasted to experience increased rain throughout the weekend of November 7–8. Sunday, November 8, shows an 80% chance of rain for Phuket. Chiang Mai also expects rain through much of the weekend [5]. China's Guangzhou is expected to experience rain at times on Saturday, November 7. Shanghai is forecasted to be cloudy with no significant rain, and Beijing is forecasted to turn cloudy and colder on Saturday, November 7, before clearing on Sunday, November 8 [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Atmospheric River Pattern to Emerge on West Coast - Climate Impact Companyclimateimpactcompany.com
- 2Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 3Tendenza weekend 7-8 novembre: rapido fronte instabile Sabato, stabilizzazione Domenicailmeteo.it
- 4Weekend con la pioggia, ecco chi rischia tra Sabato 7 e Domenica 8meteogiornale.it
- 5Weekly weather forecast: Rain increases, especially over the Nov. 7–8 weekend - Weathernewsweathernews.com
- 6Weekly weather forecast: Rain in Shanghai on the 4th; occasional rain in Guangzhou on the 6th–7th - Weathernewsweathernews.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: College Station
📈 November 03, 2026: 68.0pp spike
Price increased from 13.0% to 81.0%
What happened: The primary driver for the 68.0 percentage point price spike appears to be a November 1, 2026, traditional news report announcing that "Storms target the Southwest and Gulf Coast: Up to 4 inches of rain possible" [1]. This general forecast, indicating potential rainfall in Gulf-adjacent areas for the weekend of November 7–8, likely spurred the market movement on November 3, 2026 [1]. This occurred despite specific College Station forecasts for the same weekend showing a negligible chance of precipitation (0-6%) [2][3][4][5]. Social media activity was not identified as a factor.
Outcome: Seattle
📈 November 02, 2026: 82.0pp spike
Price increased from 1.0% to 83.0%
What happened: The primary driver of the 82.0 percentage point spike was traditional weather forecasting and local news reports indicating a high probability of rain in Seattle during the November 7-8 weekend. As of November 3, 2026, forecasts from WeatherBug showed rain likely for Saturday night and Sunday morning in Seattle, while NOAA's WPC favored persistent precipitation in the Pacific Northwest [6][7]. Local Seattle news outlets also reported around November 2, 2026, that rain was expected to return late Saturday into Sunday for western Washington [8][9]. Social media was not a primary driver, as no relevant activity was identified in the provided information.
Sources (9)
- 1Storms target the Southwest and Gulf Coast: Up to 4 inches of rain possible.theweather.com
- 2College Station, Texas, USA 14 day weather forecasttimeanddate.com
- 3College Station, TX 10-Day Weather Forecastweatherbug.com
- 4College Station 7-Day Weather Forecast – Daily Outlook | SatMeteosatmeteo.com
- 5College Station weather in November 2026 | Weather25.comweather25.com
- 6Seattle/Boeing Field, WA 10-Day Weather Forecast | WeatherBugweatherbug.com
- 7WPC's Extended Forecast Discussionwpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 8Dry through Tuesday in Seattle before rain returns | FOX 13 Seattlefox13seattle.com
- 9November’s ‘big dark’ begins with dry weather before rain returns to western WA - MyNorthwest.commynorthwest.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
For each listed city (Philadelphia, San Antonio, Trenton), the contract resolves "Yes" if it rains in that city during the weekend of November 7-8, 2026, and "No" if it does not rain. The market begins on Saturday, November 7, 2026, at 12:00 AM EST, with the maximum payout scheduled for November 9, 2026. The page content does not specify a minimum precipitation amount, the definitive source for weather data, or any other special settlement conditions for what constitutes "rain."
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | $0.92 | $0.12 | 90% |
| Providence | $0.87 | $0.16 | 87% |
| Philadelphia | $0.51 | $0.52 | 74% |
| Pittsburgh | $0.81 | $0.33 | 69% |
| New York City | $0.65 | $0.38 | 64% |
| Detroit | $0.87 | $0.57 | 61% |
| Newark | $0.62 | $0.41 | 58% |
| Trenton | $0.51 | $0.52 | 47% |
| Washington DC | $0.46 | $0.57 | 44% |
| West Palm Beach | $0.37 | $0.67 | 33% |
| Miami | $0.32 | $0.71 | 32% |
| Columbus | $0.32 | $0.71 | 29% |
| Tampa | $0.85 | $0.57 | 28% |
| Indianapolis | $0.23 | $0.81 | 19% |
| Atlanta | $0.20 | $0.83 | 17% |
| Lexington | $0.41 | $0.97 | 17% |
| College Station | $0.87 | $0.43 | 81% |
| Houston | $0.58 | $0.45 | 58% |
| San Antonio | $0.48 | $0.55 | 48% |
| Austin | $0.42 | $0.61 | 41% |
| New Orleans | $0.37 | $0.66 | 37% |
| Milwaukee | $0.32 | $0.72 | 30% |
| Chicago | $0.31 | $0.72 | 28% |
| Minneapolis | $0.25 | $0.78 | 22% |
| Springfield | $0.66 | $0.76 | 22% |
| St. Louis | $0.51 | $0.92 | 22% |
| Dallas | $0.19 | $0.84 | 18% |
| Oklahoma City | $0.09 | $0.92 | 10% |
| Albuquerque | $0.38 | $0.95 | 8% |
| Phoenix | $0.06 | $0.95 | 8% |
| Denver | $0.07 | $0.94 | 7% |
| Seattle | $0.87 | $0.16 | 86% |
| San Francisco | $0.07 | $0.94 | 56% |
| Las Vegas | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
| Los Angeles | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
Market Discussion
As of November 3, 2026, prediction markets indicate Boston has the highest probability (90%) of rain on November 7–8, 2026 [1]. NOAA reports an active weather pattern will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Pacific Northwest, Southern Plains, and western Gulf Coast during the same weekend [2]. Market participants often use National Weather Service guidance and machine learning models, with many opting to deploy capital closer to the event [1].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score72Good
Market integrity is low (52), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.
Trade quality20% of score48High Risk
Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score68Caution
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What is the expected trajectory and intensity of the atmospheric river event forecast to impact the U.S. West Coast on November 6-7, 2026?
| Principal Forecast Window | November 10–12, 2026 (risks through November 14, 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Heavy-Precipitation Risk (Northern CA to NW) | Over 60% (through November 14) [1] |
| Heavy-Snow Risk (Washington Cascades) | Over 60% (through November 14) [1] |
Current research does not forecast an atmospheric river event for November 6-7, 2026. Instead, a significant atmospheric river event is currently identified for November 10–12, 2026, with potential risks extending through November 14, 2026 [1][2][3]. This event is expected to impact much of the U.S. West Coast, with an initial broad trajectory from north-central California northward to Oregon and Washington [1].
The event forecasts strong precipitation, snow, and coastal winds across the region. During the November 10–12 period, the strongest precipitation and snow signals are concentrated in the Pacific Northwest and northern California, before broadening southward [1]. A heavy-precipitation risk exceeding 60% is forecast for northern California through the Northwest, while a moderate risk of 40–60% extends to central California through November 14 [1]. A heavy-snow risk of over 60% is expected for the Washington Cascades, with a 40–60% risk reaching the southern Cascades, Klamath Mountains, and Sierra Nevada through November 14 [1]. Additionally, a 40–60% coastal high-wind risk is also forecast, with the event characterized by strong surface low pressure north of the region, heavy rain, coastal winds, and mountain snow [1][2][3].
7. What is the consensus among the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM weather models for precipitation in Los Angeles and San Francisco for November 7-8, 2026?
| Los Angeles Precipitation Chance (Nov 7-8, 2026) | Approximately 8% [1][2] |
|---|---|
| San Francisco Precipitation Chance (Nov 7-8, 2026) | Approximately 38% [1][3] |
| Weather Model Consensus (Nov 7-8, 2026) | No specific consensus or detailed forecasts available [4][5][6][7] |
Prediction markets indicate differing precipitation probabilities for California cities. For November 7-8, 2026, Los Angeles shows an implied approximately 8% chance of measurable precipitation, suggesting a strong dry outlook for the period [1][2]. San Francisco, by contrast, has an implied approximately 38% chance of measurable precipitation, indicating it carries a materially higher wet-weather risk than Los Angeles, though still remaining below even odds [1][3].
Specific consensus from major weather models is not yet available. As of November 3, there is no specific consensus or detailed model forecasts from the GFS, ECMWF, or NAM weather models regarding precipitation in Los Angeles and San Francisco for November 7-8, 2026 [4][5][6][7]. While the GFS and ECMWF models provide medium-range guidance relevant to this period, the NAM model is not yet appropriate for the full November 7-8 window [4][5][6][7]. A late-October California outlook anticipated Central California would remain mostly dry through mid-November, with only modest showers expected in Northern California in the near term, and more widespread or heavier rain projected for around mid-November [8][9].
Sources (9)
- 1Where will it rain this weekend (Nov 7 - Nov 8)?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 2Will it rain in Los Angeles between Nov 7 and Nov 8, 20… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 3Will it rain in San Francisco between Nov 7 and Nov 8, … | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Forecast Modelsweather.gov
- 5GFS & HRRR Forecast APIopen-meteo.com
- 6ECMWF Model – MSLP & Precip for Western U.S. | Tropical Tidbitstropicaltidbits.com
- 7GFS Model – MSLP & Precip for Western U.S. | Tropical Tidbitstropicaltidbits.com
- 8Meteorologist Cinthia Pimentel shows us the great fall...facebook.com
- 9Weather West - California weather and climate perspectivesweatherwest.com
8. How do the November 2026 El Niño precipitation outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) compare for southern cities like Austin versus northeastern cities like New York City?
| NYC Rain Odds (Nov 7-8, 2026) | 62.5% [1] |
|---|---|
| Austin Rain Odds (Nov 7-8, 2026) | 39.5% [1] |
| NOAA Winter Outlook Southern Tier & East Coast | Wetter-than-average conditions [2] |
Early November 2026 forecasts suggest varying precipitation across regions. For the weekend of November 7-8, 2026, New York City exhibits higher odds of rain at 62.5% compared to Austin's 39.5% [1]. The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) 8-14 day outlook for early November 2026 indicates a weather pattern bringing several rain episodes to both the Southern and Northeastern regions [3]. Looking ahead, NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook for December 2026-February 2027 projects wetter-than-average conditions most likely across the southern tier from the Southwest to the Southeast and along the East Coast [2].
Austin's fall precipitation outlook appears average, with wetter conditions later. The CPC's September-November 2026 seasonal outlook for Texas forecasts average precipitation, suggesting that El Niño's wetter impacts may manifest more during winter than fall [4]. However, the CPC Week 3-4 Outlook, valid for November 14-27, 2026, anticipates anomalous troughing over the southeastern continental U.S., favoring above-normal precipitation in the Southeast [5]. Consistent with this, NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook (December 2026-February 2027) projects wetter-than-average conditions most likely across the southern tier from the Southwest to the Southeast [2].
Northeastern cities anticipate above-average precipitation, especially in winter. For the November 7-8, 2026 weekend, New York City has a 62.5% chance of rain [1]. Nearby northeastern cities also show high rain odds, with Boston at 90% and Providence at 85.5% for the same period [1]. Historically, during El Niño winters, the Eastern Seaboard generally experiences above-normal precipitation as storms move up the coast [6]. This trend is reflected in NOAA's U.S. Winter Outlook (December 2026-February 2027), which forecasts wetter-than-average conditions most likely along the East Coast [2].
Sources (6)
- 1Where will it rain this weekend (Nov 7 - Nov 8)? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2El Nino looms large over U.S. Winter Outlooknoaa.gov
- 3NOAA November 2026 temperature outlook with El Ninofacebook.com
- 4Texas fall weather forecastfox7austin.com
- 5Week 3-4 Outlook - Climate Prediction Center - NOAAcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 6El Niño 2026elnino.nrcc.cornell.edu
9. What is the range of possible precipitation outcomes (ensemble spread) from the GEFS and EPS model suites for Midwest cities like Chicago and Denver for November 7-8, 2026?
| Chicago Precipitation Probability (Nov 7-8, 2026) | Around 50% [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Denver Precipitation Probability (Nov 7-8, 2026) | Approximately 26% [1][2][3][4] |
| NOAA CPC Outlook Period | November 8-12, 2026 [5] |
Ensemble models show varying precipitation probabilities for Midwest cities. For November 7-8, 2026, ensemble suites such as GEFS and EPS indicate differing probabilities for measurable precipitation across Midwest cities like Chicago and Denver. Chicago's ensemble spread suggests approximately a 50% chance of precipitation, which is consistent with Kalshi pricing around 50.5% in initial analyses [1][2][3][4]. In contrast, Denver exhibits a lower probability, approximately 26%, aligning with Kalshi pricing at 26%. This lower likelihood for Denver is attributed to its increased distance from the primary moisture source and higher model uncertainty [1][2][3][4].
NOAA provides ensemble-based precipitation guidance for early November. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 Day Outlook, updated on November 2, 2026, offers official ensemble-based precipitation guidance specifically for the Midwest region from November 8-12, 2026 [5]. A general forecast issued on November 2, 2026, anticipates a mild Pacific air pattern dominating the week, potentially bringing several opportunities for precipitation as a high-pressure system shifts west. This suggests moderate but not guaranteed precipitation for Midwest cities, although the currently available information does not specify quantitative precipitation outcomes in terms of inches [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Where will it rain this weekend (Nov 7 - Nov 8)? - Kalshi Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 2Where will it rain this weekend (Nov 7 - Nov 8)? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
- 3Will it rain in Denver between Nov 7 and Nov 8, 2026?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 4Where will it rain this weekend (Nov 7 - Nov 8)?… | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com
- 56 to 10 Day Outlooks - Climate Prediction Center - NOAAcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 6Midwest weather forecast mild pacific air first half of...facebook.com
10. Which specific forecast updates on or around November 2, 2026, could explain the 55-point probability spike observed in the market?
| Initial Market Value (Nov 2, 2026) | 50.5% for several outcomes [1] |
|---|---|
| Boston Market Leader | Roughly 89–90% [2][3] |
| Robinhood Boston Display | 89% [2] |
Available research does not explicitly document a 55-point probability jump. The research does not identify a specific November 2 official forecast run as the direct cause of such a jump [2][3][4][1]. However, the observed market repricing around that time is likely attributable to a Northeast or coastal model repricing [2][3][4][1].
Market repricing on November 2 strongly favored Boston/Northeast precipitation. On November 2, 2026, at 15:00 UTC, the market was broadly unsettled, with outcomes for several locations, including West Palm Beach, Trenton, Tampa, St. Louis, and Springfield, listed at 50.5% [1]. A subsequent snapshot showed Boston as the market leader at approximately 89–90%, with Robinhood indicating Boston at 89%, demonstrating a major repricing toward Boston and Northeast precipitation [2][3].
Forecast models exhibited significant, conflicting changes around November 1. A November 1 Philadelphia forecast discussion documented a meaningful model change [4]. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model shifted a coastal storm away and reduced expected front-related rain, while the Global Forecast System (GFS) and Aggregated Global Forecast System (AIGFS) retained more rainfall [4]. The author of the discussion highlighted persistent uncertainty and forecasts being repeatedly pushed back [4].
Sources (4)
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Rain is expected across parts of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, Southern Plains, and western Gulf Coast for the weekend of November 7-8, 2026 [1][2][3]. Active weather will persist in the Pacific Northwest due to persistent cyclonic flow and moisture transport, impacting coastal areas and the Cascades. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast across the Southern Plains and western Gulf Coast through the weekend [1]. Climate outlooks for November 2026 reflect El Nino-like tendencies, with increased precipitation probabilities in parts of the southern U.S. and coastal regions [4].
In Italy, an unstable front is forecast to bring rain to central and southern regions on Saturday, November 7, 2026 [1][2][3]. Precipitation, including showers and thunderstorms, will affect central-southern regions on Saturday, November 7 [2][3][5]. Conditions are expected to stabilize on Sunday, November 8, 2026, with a trend toward drier weather [1][2][3][5]. North-central Italy may experience cloudy but mostly dry conditions during this period [2][3][5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 11, 2026
- Closes: November 09, 2026
Sources (5)
- 1WPC's Extended Forecast Discussionwpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 2Tendenza weekend 7-8 novembre: rapido fronte instabile Sabato, stabilizzazione Domenicailmeteo.it
- 3Weekend con la pioggia, ecco chi rischia tra Sabato 7 e Domenica 8meteogiornale.it
- 4Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlookcpc.ncep.noaa.gov
- 5Dopo neve e temporali il maltempo si attenua: freddo fino a venerdì, poi un weekend più mite. Le previsioniilmattino.it
13. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 13 resolved YES, 7 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT31-WPB: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT31-TTN: NO (Nov 02, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT31-TPA: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT31-STL: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
- KXRAINWKND-26OCT31-SGF: YES (Nov 02, 2026)
