Highest temperature in Minneapolis on May 13, 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the highest temperature in Minneapolis on May 13, 2026, to be 73° to 74°, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market has demonstrated minimal volatility, trading within a very narrow band between 3.0% and 5.0% probability. The price opened at 5.0% before quickly settling at its current level of 3.0%, where it has remained. The overall trend is sideways, reflecting a lack of new information to influence trader sentiment. Total volume is very low at 137 contracts, which suggests limited participation and conviction among traders. The most active trading occurred as the price dropped to 3.0%, indicating that this lower probability is the level where the market found some initial agreement.
The price action directly reflects the context provided regarding the fundamental challenges of long-range weather forecasting. The market is for a specific daily temperature far in the future, an outcome that scientific models cannot predict with any accuracy at this range. Therefore, the persistently low probability is not a reaction to a specific weather forecast but rather an acknowledgment of this inherent uncertainty. The narrow price range with support at 3.0% and initial resistance at 5.0% represents the market pricing in a very small chance based on general climatological data rather than specific predictive information. The market sentiment is firmly bearish on this specific outcome, with traders pricing it as a highly improbable event, a view that is unlikely to change until the date is within a more reliable forecasting window.
- Specific forecasts for May 13, 2026, suggest a 71-72°F high.
- The 1991–2020 climate normal for May 13 high is 68°F.
- ENSO-neutral conditions are favored through April-June 2026.
- El Niño is likely to emerge by May-July 2026, often bringing warmer temperatures.
- Predicting daily temperatures far in advance appears challenging.
Current Context
Predicting specific daily temperatures far in advance presents significant challenges. While short-term weather forecasts, typically up to 3-10 days, have seen substantial improvements in accuracy due to advancements in computing power and numerical weather prediction models, predicting specific daily temperatures far in advance remains difficult [1][2][3]. The atmosphere is a chaotic system, where even minor initial changes can lead to vastly different outcomes over time, a phenomenon known as the "butterfly effect" [4][3]. Research indicates that forecasting day-to-day weather beyond approximately two weeks is challenging, even with perfect models and a complete understanding of initial conditions [4][2]. For May 13, 2026, the current short-term outlook for Minneapolis predicts a sunny day transitioning to mostly cloudy at night, with a low chance of rain [5].
Historical data provides a reliable range for Minneapolis's May temperatures. For May in Minneapolis, historical data indicates that daily high temperatures typically range from 64°F to 74°F [6]. It is rare for temperatures to fall below 51°F or to exceed 85°F during this month [6]. The average high temperature for May is approximately 72°F, while the average low temperature is around 54°F [7].
Prediction markets offer a promising, though debated, tool for climate forecasting. These platforms enable individuals to bet on various real-world events, including daily high and low temperatures, monthly snowfall, and longer-term climate metrics [8][9][10][11]. Some analyses suggest that these markets may even outperform traditional weather forecasts by financially incentivizing accurate human judgment [8]. Platforms such as Kalshi, Metaculus, and OG.com offer diverse climate and weather contracts, from short-term temperature bets to long-term climate benchmarks [9][10]. The aim of these markets is to aggregate diverse information and expertise to produce probability forecasts, potentially complementing traditional methods of projecting future climate conditions [11][12]. However, concerns have been raised regarding potential data manipulation and the "gamification" of weather [8].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to "Yes" if the maximum temperature in Minneapolis on May 13, 2026, is between 73-74°F, as officially reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily); otherwise, it resolves to "No." The last trading time is 11:59 PM local time on May 13, 2026, with expiration occurring after the NWS data release for that date, and payouts projected 30 minutes post-closing. Traders must exclusively rely on the NWS Climatological Report for settlement, noting that preliminary data may contain rounding and conversion nuances.
Market Discussion
Various weather forecasts for Minneapolis on May 13, 2026, generally anticipate high temperatures between 71°F and 74°F, with Google and Weather25.com predicting 71°F [1][2], the National Weather Service forecasting 74°F [3], and Hoodline suggesting 73°F [4]. AccuWeather's broader monthly forecast for May 2026 indicates an average high of 72°F [5]. Prediction markets for the Minneapolis-Saint Paul Daily Temperature High on May 13, 2026, are actively trading, with 91% of contracts as of May 12, 2026, predicting the high temperature will be greater than 69°F [6][7].
4. How might the forecasted El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase for spring 2026 impact Minneapolis temperatures, based on outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center?
| ENSO-neutral April-June 2026 | 80% chance [1][2] |
|---|---|
| El Niño emergence May-July 2026 | 61% chance [1][2] |
| El Niño effect on Upper Midwest | Warmer and drier conditions [3][4] |
NOAA forecasts indicate a transition to El Niño by summer 2026. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook, issued on April 9, 2026, indicated an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing through April-June 2026. Subsequently, El Niño was projected to emerge in the May-July 2026 period with a 61% chance and was expected to persist through at least the end of 2026 [1][2]. An earlier forecast from March 24, 2026, also predicted a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions through May-July, followed by El Niño emerging by June-August [5].
ENSO phases have distinct historical impacts on upper Midwest temperatures. During ENSO-neutral periods, when ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are near average, the influence on Midwest temperature and precipitation patterns is less direct [6][7]. This often results in "equal chances" for above-average, below-average, or near-average temperatures for much of Minnesota [3][8]. Historically, the El Niño phase is generally associated with warmer and drier conditions in northern states like Minnesota [3][4]. El Niño conditions typically lead to a polar jet stream positioned farther north than usual, increasing the chances of above-normal temperatures in the upper Midwest [9][10][11][6], with cold outbreaks tending to be less frequent [11].
Spring 2026 forecasts initially varied, but no specific Minneapolis temperature predictions exist. An earlier March 25, 2026, forecast had suggested that a transition from La Niña to El Niño could result in a "cooler and drier pattern for the spring" in Minnesota [8]. However, later forecasts leaned towards equal chances for temperatures [8]. The available research does not contain specific temperature predictions for Minneapolis on May 13, 2026.
5. How does the trend in May daily high temperatures in Minneapolis from the last decade (2015-2024) compare to the established 1991-2020 climate normal?
| 1991-2020 Climate Normal May 13 High Temp | 68°F (Minneapolis/St. Paul) [1] |
|---|---|
| Highest May 13 High Temp (2015-2024) | 78°F (Minneapolis/St. Paul in 2018) [2] |
| Prediction Market May 13, 2026 High Temp Thresholds | >68°F, >69°F, >70°F (Minneapolis–Saint Paul) [3] |
Minneapolis May daily high temperatures show recent variability against normal. The established 1991–2020 climate normal for the May 13 daily high temperature in Minneapolis/St. Paul is 68°F [1]. However, over the last decade from 2015 to 2024, May daily high temperatures for Minneapolis/St. Paul have exhibited substantial year-to-year variability when compared to this established baseline [2][1].
Recent May high temperatures fluctuated notably around the established normal. Specific year-by-year reports detail May high temperatures, including 69°F in 2015, 71°F in 2016, 78°F in 2018, 67°F in 2020, and 68°F in 2024 [2]. These figures demonstrate notable fluctuations, generally ranging from the late-60s to low-70s, relative to the May normal daily high [2][1].
Broader contextual data and future predictions offer additional insights. In 2015, the Twin Cities May maximum temperature was 68.5°F, representing a -0.9°F departure from a normal of 69.4°F [4]. Looking ahead, the prediction market for Minneapolis–Saint Paul's daily temperature high on May 13, 2026, includes live contract bins with thresholds exceeding 68°F, 69°F, and 70°F [3].
6. Which public datasets from NOAA's NCEI are considered the official source for Minneapolis's daily temperature records, and what is their period of record?
| Official U.S. daily data archive | Global Historical Climatology Network daily (GHCN-Daily) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| nClimGrid-Daily Period | January 1, 1951–present [3][4] |
| GHCN-Daily record length | Can exceed 175 years (varies by station) [2] |
NOAA's GHCN-Daily is the official source for daily temperature records. The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) designates the Global Historical Climatology Network daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset as the authoritative archive for U.S. daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at the station level [1][2]. Although periods of record vary by station and can exceed 175 years, the exact period of record for a specific Minneapolis-area station must be accessed directly from NCEI's station details, typically through Climate Data Online (CDO) or other GHCN-Daily access points [2][5].
nClimGrid-Daily offers gridded temperature data, not specific station records. Another NCEI public dataset, nClimGrid-Daily, provides daily maximum, minimum, and average temperatures, as well as precipitation, for the contiguous U.S. from January 1, 1951, to the present [3][4]. However, it is essential to understand that nClimGrid-Daily is derived from GHCN-Daily station observations and delivers temperature information on a gridded basis, rather than representing a single station's official "Minneapolis record" [3][4].
Specific Minneapolis daily temperatures require direct database queries. This research does not explicitly provide the precise period of record for any particular Minneapolis-area station within the GHCN-Daily dataset, nor does it contain the actual May 13, 2026 daily maximum temperature. To obtain such specific details, the recommended official method involves querying the Minneapolis station's GHCN-Daily maximum temperature for that specific date via NCEI's Climate Data Online (CDO) or other GHCN-Daily access mechanisms [2][5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/menne-etal2012.pdfncei.noaa.gov
- 2Global Historical Climatology Network daily (GHCNd) | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)ncei.noaa.gov
- 3nClimGrid-Daily | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)ncei.noaa.gov
- 4nClimGrid-Daily | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)ncei.noaa.gov
- 5Climate Data Online (CDO) - The National Climatic Data Center's (NCDC) Climate Data Online (CDO) provides free access to NCDC's archive of historical weather and climate data in addition to station history information. | National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)ncei.noaa.gov
- 6NCEI Past Weather Tool | Drought.govdrought.gov
7. How accurate have the Climate Prediction Center's seasonal (3-month) temperature outlooks been for the Minneapolis region over the past decade of spring seasons?
| Direct Accuracy Table | Not available for Minneapolis spring temperature outlooks over the last decade [1] |
|---|---|
| Authoritative Verification Method | CPC's seasonal-verification tool (provides gridded seasonal forecast/observation pairs and Heidke Skill Scores) [2][3] |
| Seasonal Outlook Issuance | Once each month near mid-month [4] |
No precomputed data exists for Minneapolis seasonal temperature outlook accuracy. The provided research does not contain a direct, precomputed table detailing the accuracy of the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) seasonal (3-month) temperature outlooks specifically for the Minneapolis region over the past decade of spring seasons [1].
The CPC's verification tool assesses accuracy using specific steps. To evaluate this accuracy, it would be necessary to access the CPC's seasonal-verification tool, which is considered the authoritative method [2]. This tool provides gridded seasonal forecast/observation pairs and reports Heidke Skill Scores [2][3]. However, this verification data is accessible only by selecting specific valid seasons and years and then extracting and aggregating relevant grid points, rather than through a direct pre-computed table [1]. These seasonal outlooks themselves are issued by the CPC once each month, typically near mid-month [4].
8. What meteorological patterns, such as blocking highs or specific jet stream configurations, have historically produced record-setting heat in Minneapolis during mid-May?
| Primary Heat Pattern | Persistent heat domes [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| Contributing Wind | Strong southwest winds [2][3] |
| Record May Temperature | 106°F on May 31st [5][6][7][8][1][2] |
Meteorological patterns producing record heat in Minneapolis involve persistent systems. Persistent heat domes and other atmospheric systems that effectively trap warm air over a region are historically linked to record-setting heat in Minneapolis during May, leading to prolonged heatwaves [1][2][3][4]. Strong southwest winds also play a significant role, bringing warmer air from southern regions into Minnesota and contributing to elevated temperatures [2][3].
Specific conditions and air masses intensify these heat events. When combined with these atmospheric patterns, dry ground conditions can further intensify heat by reducing evaporative cooling [2]. Additionally, Dry Tropical air masses have been historically associated with extreme heat events in Minnesota [9]. For example, a record-setting temperature of 106°F on May 31st was attributed to strong southwest winds and a persistent heat dome [5][6][7][8][1][2]. The available research does not detail specific jet stream configurations beyond referring to systems that trap warm air [2][3][4].
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Weather prediction markets have experienced substantial growth, partly driven by the increasing impact of climate change and the need for risk management in weather-dependent sectors like agriculture and energy [1][2][3][4]. Businesses, including utilities, commodity producers, and event organizers, utilize weather derivatives to mitigate financial risks associated with unpredictable weather patterns [1][2][3][4]. Unlike traditional insurance, these derivatives provide payouts based on predefined weather conditions rather than actual losses [1][2].
The weather derivatives market has expanded significantly over the past decade, with a notable increase in trading volume, particularly in 2023 due to new contract launches and hedging programs [1]. These markets attract a diverse range of participants, from casual bettors and weather enthusiasts to expert meteorologists and AI-driven weather technology firms testing their forecasting models [5][6]. There is ongoing discussion and some evidence suggesting that prediction markets may contribute to improving forecast accuracy by aggregating knowledge and incentivizing more precise predictions [5][6][7]. The broader trend indicates that increasing weather volatility and climate-related risks continue to fuel demand and innovation within these prediction markets [1][5][8].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: May 14, 2026
- Expiration: May 20, 2026
- Closes: May 14, 2026
11. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHTMIN-26MAY11-T72: NO (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTMIN-26MAY11-T65: NO (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTMIN-26MAY11-B71.5: NO (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTMIN-26MAY11-B69.5: YES (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTMIN-26MAY11-B67.5: NO (May 12, 2026)
