Minnesota Governor 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~28d): Lisa Demuth's model probability decreased 3.6pp, widening the model-led edge by 2.4pp.
- Amy Klobuchar's model probability increased 3.6pp, with market also up 2.0pp.
- Confidence score for the prediction increased by 3.0pp, moving from 5.0 to 8.0.
- Democratic nominee Amy Klobuchar consistently leads Lisa Demuth by significant margins in polls and forecast models. Klobuchar benefits from an established statewide profile and substantial fundraising advantage as of September 2026.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Demuth | 5.8% | 3.4% | Lisa Demuth consistently trails her opponent in polls and forecast models by significant margins. |
| Amy Klobuchar | 94.5% | 96.6% | Amy Klobuchar consistently leads in polls and benefits from an established statewide profile and fundraising. |
Current Context
Sources (13)
- 1Amy Klobuchar will face off against Lisa Demuth in Minnesota governor's race | MPR Newsmprnews.org
- 22026 Minnesota gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 3Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 42026 Minnesota Governor Live Election Results | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 5Demuth defeats Lindell, Qualls, and four others in Republican primary for governor of Minnesota - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 6Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026...ballotpedia.org
- 7Klobuchar, Demuth pound pavement at state fair -marshallindependent.com
- 8Republican Gubernatorial Nominee and Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth Appears at Minnesota State Fair | KNOX News Radio, Local News, Weather and Sportsknoxradio.com
- 9Klobuchar, Demuth pound pavement at the Minnesota State Fair in campaign for governor | News From The Statesnewsfromthestates.com
- 10Lisa Demuth’s Chances of Beating Klobuchar in Minnesota Governor Race - Newsweeknewsweek.com
- 112026 Minnesota Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 122026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
- 132026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This contract resolves YES if the Democratic party's candidate, Amy Klobuchar, wins the Minnesota Governor election, and resolves NO if she does not. The market begins trading on November 3rd at 8:00 AM EST, with a maximum payout date of November 3, 2027. Resolution is specifically triggered by the winning party of the Minnesota Governor election.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Klobuchar | $0.96 | $0.06 | 95% |
| Lisa Demuth | $0.06 | $0.95 | 6% |
Market Discussion
As of September 9, 2026, the winner of the 2026 Minnesota gubernatorial general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026, has not yet been determined [1][2]. U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar (DFL) and Minnesota House Speaker Lisa Demuth (Republican) are the major party nominees, having won their primaries on August 11, 2026, for an open seat after incumbent Governor Tim Walz decided not to seek re-election [1][3][4][5][6][7]. Public polling and forecast models consistently show Amy Klobuchar leading Lisa Demuth, with Decision Desk HQ’s forecast assigning Klobuchar an 83% probability of winning the election [8][9][10][11].
Sources (11)
- 1Amy Klobuchar will face off against Lisa Demuth in Minnesota governor's race | MPR Newsmprnews.org
- 2Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 3Demuth wins Minnesota GOP governor primarystartribune.com
- 4Tim Walz drops bid for third term as Minnesota governor | AP Newsapnews.com
- 5Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz ends reelection bid amid child-care fraud scandal - ABC Newsabcnews.com
- 6Demuth defeats Lindell, Qualls, and four others in Republican primary for governor of Minnesota - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 7Record-high seven candidates running in Minnesota's Republican gubernatorial primary - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 8Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #27966kstp.com
- 9Minnesota Governor Race 2026 | PollingSourcepollingsource.com
- 102026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
- 112026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
4. Trust Index
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order loses under 1% of the price to slippage.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
5. How do Amy Klobuchar's and Lisa Demuth's policy platforms compare on Minnesota's key economic and social issues for the 2026 election?
| Klobuchar Victory Probability | Approximately 94% (early September 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Demuth Permitting Reduction Goal | At least 25% (proposed) [4] |
| Comprehensive Policy Comparisons | Not yet detailed (as of September 9, 2026) [5] |
Sources (13)
- 1Minnesota Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2Minnesota Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
- 3PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
- 4Lisa Demuth targets fraud, immigration policy in final pitch... - FOX 9fox9.com
- 5Amy Klobuchar - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 6Amy Klobuchar for Governor | We do big things. This isn't just our...amyklobuchar.com
- 7Priorities - Amy Klobuchar for Governoramyklobuchar.com
- 8Amy Klobuchar wins Minnesota's 2026 DFL governor primaryyoutube.com
- 9Demuth defeats Lindell, Qualls, and four others in Republican primary for governor of Minnesota - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 10Record-high seven candidates running in Minnesota's Republican gubernatorial primary - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 11Lisa's Priorities - Lisa Demuthlisaformn.com
- 12Lisa Demuth's governor campaign debuts updated fraud prevention...keyc.com
- 132026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
6. What polling data and forecast models from September 2026 onward support Amy Klobuchar's frontrunner status?
| Prediction Market Win Chance | 94% (Kalshi and Polymarket) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Pollsmax Projected Vote Share | 59% (Pollsmax) [1] |
| SurveyUSA Poll Lead (Aug 2026) | 52% to 36% (Klobuchar vs. Demuth) [1][4][5] |
Sources (10)
- 12026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
- 2Minnesota Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
- 3PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
- 42026 Polls: Minnesota Governor - 270toWin.com270towin.com
- 52026 Minnesota Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 62026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 72026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 82026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 9Minnesota Governor Primary Election 2026 Live Results - NBC Newsnbcnews.com
- 10Live election results: Minnesota governor's race - Sahan Journalsahanjournal.com
7. How might national political trends from September to November 2026 influence voter sentiment in the Klobuchar vs. Demuth race?
| Klobuchar Probability (Prediction Markets) | 94% (as of September 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Klobuchar Probability (Decision Desk HQ) | 83% (as of August 28, 2026) [4] |
| National Environment Weight in Forecasts | 81% (Decision Desk HQ) [4] |
Sources (8)
- 1Minnesota Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2Minnesota Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
- 3PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
- 42026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 5What history tells us about the 2026 midterm elections | Brookingsbrookings.edu
- 6The Trump Administration Is Interfering in the 2026 Midterm...americanprogress.org
- 7Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 8Amy Klobuchar - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
8. What do the latest campaign finance filings for Amy Klobuchar and Lisa Demuth reveal about their fundraising and spending priorities?
| Amy Klobuchar Cash on Hand | $3.44 million (September 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Lisa Demuth Cash on Hand | $544,000 (September 2026) [1] |
| Democratic Victory Probability | 94-95% (September 9, 2026) [2][3][4] |
Sources (7)
- 1Sen. Amy Klobuchar leads in campaign donations, but House...cbsnews.com
- 2Minnesota Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 3PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
- 4Governor Election Odds | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 5KLOBUCHAR, AMY - Candidate overview - FECfec.gov
- 6FEC to Klobuchar: Explain Your $42,000 'Asset Transfer' Between...notus.org
- 7Demuth defeats Lindell, Qualls, and four others in Republican primary for governor of Minnesota - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
9. What are the key dates and topics for gubernatorial debates between Klobuchar and Demuth that could shift polling before November 2026?
| Klobuchar Win Probability | 83% (Decision Desk HQ, August 28, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Klobuchar Polling Lead | 51% to 36% (SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV, August 2026) [1] |
| Election Date | November 3, 2026 [2] |
Sources (11)
- 12026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | DDHQvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 22026 Minnesota Governor Forecast | Election Odds & Latest Pollspollsmax.com
- 3Opening tangle in Minnesota governor's race shows... - MPR Newsmprnews.org
- 42026 Minnesota gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org
- 5Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 6Minnesota Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 7PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
- 82026 Minnesota Elections, Odds & Candidates | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 9Elections: Governor | Glypseglypse.ai
- 10Minnesota GOP picks Lisa Demuth over Trump-backed Mike Lindell...nbcnews.com
- 11Minnesota governor's race set to be historic - FOX 9fox9.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (15)
- 1Minnesota Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 2Minnesota Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026 - Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Who will be the next Governor of Minnesota? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
- 4Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | Paritypredictparity.com
- 52026 Governor Forecast | Decision Desk HQ | DDHQintegration-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 62026 Governor Forecast | Decision Desk HQ | DDHQnewsnation-votes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 72026 VOTER PARTICIPATION TOOLKITsos.mn.gov
- 8The timeline leading up to Minnesota's 2026 gubernatorial electionkttc.com
- 9Demuth defeats Lindell, Qualls, and four others in Republican primary for governor of Minnesota - Ballotpedia Newsnews.ballotpedia.org
- 102026 Minnesota Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 112026 Minnesota Governor | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 12Minnesota elections, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 13Timeline for 2026 General Electionsearch.mnmsba.org
- 14Will a Democrat Win the Minnesota Governor Election?lines.com
- 15Amy Klobuchar faces tougher test against Lisa Demuth in MN governor’s racestartribune.com