Minnesota Governor 2026
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Since last update (~42d): The model's probability for a winner surged +92.7pp, while market probability gained +90.0pp.
- The edge (model
- market) flipped from -2.4pp to +0.3pp, reflecting increased model conviction.
- Amy Klobuchar's market probability increased +1.3pp, compressing the edge as the market led movement.
- Lisa Demuth's model probability increased +0.5pp, while market probability declined -0.5pp, compressing the edge.
- Democratic victory expected; Amy Klobuchar holds 7-10 point polling lead. Klobuchar maintains a 4.3-to-1 fundraising advantage through September 15. * Republicans have not won Minnesota governorship since 2006.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Demuth | 5.3% | 3.9% | Lisa Demuth consistently trails in recent polls and has a massive fundraising deficit. |
| Amy Klobuchar | 95.8% | 96.1% | Amy Klobuchar leads in recent polls and holds a significant fundraising advantage. |
Current Context
Sources (9)
- 1Minnesota Governor · Elections Intelligenceelections.ftpadvocacy.com
- 2Minnesota gubernatorial candidates try to separate themselves from party leaders during final debate - CBS Minnesotacbsnews.com
- 3Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #28052kstp.com
- 4Minnesota Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 5Minnesota Governor Election Winnerpolymarket.com
- 62026 Minnesota Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 7Minnesota Governor Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
- 8Minnesota Poll: Amy Klobuchar leads Lisa Demuth in governor’s racestartribune.com
- 9PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves based on which party wins the Minnesota Governor general election, scheduled for November 3, 2026. A "YES" contract resolves if the party it represents wins the election, while a "NO" contract resolves if that party does not win. Trading is paused during weekly exchange maintenance from 3-5 AM ET.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amy Klobuchar | $0.96 | $0.05 | 96% |
| Lisa Demuth | $0.05 | $0.96 | 5% |
Market Discussion
As of October 22, 2026, prediction markets strongly favor Amy Klobuchar (DFL) to win the Minnesota Governor election, with Polymarket at 95% and Kalshi at 96% for Klobuchar [1]. Polling data, while less extreme, aligns with this forecast, showing Klobuchar leading Lisa Demuth (R) by around 7-8 points in recent surveys [2]. Traders appear to anticipate a Democratic victory by a modest margin, with Polymarket's margin market assigning the largest probability to a 10–15-point Democratic win [1].
4. How do prediction market probabilities from Kalshi and Polymarket align with traditional polling aggregates for the 2026 Minnesota governor's race?
| Kalshi Klobuchar Win Probability | 94-96% (October 22, 2026) [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Polymarket Klobuchar Win Probability | 94-97% (Democratic outcome/Klobuchar) [4][5][6] |
| Klobuchar Polling Lead | 6.7-9.7 percentage points [7][8][9] |
Sources (12)
- 1Minnesota Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2Minnesota Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Klobuchar vs. Demuth | Kalshikalshi.com
- 3Minnesota Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 4Minnesota Governor Election Winnerpolymarket.com
- 5Minnesota Governor Election Winnerpolymarket.com
- 6Minnesota Governor Election Winner Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
- 72026 Minnesota Governor Polls | Polling Average & Latest...pollsmax.com
- 8Minnesota Governor 2026 Polls — Klobuchar vs Demuth — PoliAggpoliagg.com
- 92026 Minnesota gubernatorial electionen.wikipedia.org
- 10Live odds: Minnesota Governor winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 11Minnesota Governor Election Winner Odds: Amy Klobuchar (D) 95% | Polymarket Odds Todaypolymarkettrader.com
- 122026 Minnesota Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
5. What potential catalysts or campaign shifts could enable Lisa Demuth to close the polling gap with Amy Klobuchar before November 3, 2026?
| Klobuchar Polling Lead | 7-10 points (October 12-14, 2026 [1][2][3][4]) |
|---|---|
| Fraud Issue Importance | 28% (second-most important issue [3][5]) |
| Klobuchar Lead Among Women | 58%-34% [3][6] |
Sources (9)
- 1Amy Klobuchar leads Lisa Demuth in governor's racestartribune.com
- 22026 Polls: Minnesota Governor270towin.com
- 3Minnesota Poll: Klobuchar leads Demuth in race for governorkare11.com
- 42026 Minnesota Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 5Minnesota governor candidates pledge anti-fraud plans....cbsnews.com
- 6KSTP/SurveyUSA poll: Swing in Senate and AG races...kstp.com
- 7Lisa Demuth's Affordability Agenda for Minnesotalisaformn.com
- 8Klobuchar, Demuth show urgency to grow Minnesota's...minnpost.com
- 9Takeaways from the final gubernatorial debate between...minnesotareformer.com
6. How do Amy Klobuchar's and Lisa Demuth's platforms compare on key Minnesota issues like public safety, the economy, and regulatory policy?
| Klobuchar Prediction Market Share | 96% (as of October 22, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
|---|---|
| Demuth Prediction Market Share | 5% (as of October 22, 2026) [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
| Polling Average (Klobuchar vs Demuth) | 48.8% vs 39.2% [1][2][3][4][5][6] |
Sources (15)
- 1Minnesota governor hopefuls align against tax increases...mprnews.org
- 2Lower Housing Costs for Minnesotans - Amy Klobuchar for Governoramyklobuchar.com
- 3Make Government Accountable and Root out Fraud - Amy Klobuchar for Governoramyklobuchar.com
- 4Priorities - Amy Klobuchar for Governoramyklobuchar.com
- 52026 Minnesota Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 6https://polymarket.com/pl/event/minnesota-governor-winner-2026polymarket.com
- 7Take on Crime and Support Public Safetyamyklobuchar.com
- 8Lisa's Prioritieslisaformn.com
- 9Lisa Demuth's Affordability Agenda for Minnesotalisaformn.com
- 10Minnesota gubernatorial candidate Lisa Demuth targets...wdayradionow.com
- 11Where they stand: Amy Klobuchar and Lisa Demuth on fraudstartribune.com
- 12Make Health Care More Affordable and Accessible - Amy Klobuchar for Governoramyklobuchar.com
- 13Prepare Minnesota’s Workforce for the Future - Amy Klobuchar for Governoramyklobuchar.com
- 14Expand Minnesota’s Rural and Agricultural Economy - Amy Klobuchar for Governoramyklobuchar.com
- 15KFG-Transforming State Government Planamyklobuchar.com
7. What do historical voting patterns in Minnesota's key swing counties since the 2018 election suggest for the Klobuchar vs. Demuth matchup?
| 2018 MN Gubernatorial Margin | Tim Walz +11.41% over Jeff Johnson [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| 2024 MN Presidential Margin | Kamala Harris +4.2% over Donald Trump [4][5][6] |
| Klobuchar-Demuth Polling Average | Klobuchar 48.2-48.8%, Demuth 39.2-41.0% (Klobuchar +7-10) [7][8][9][6] |
Sources (10)
- 1Index - Election Resultselectionresults.sos.mn.gov
- 2Washingtonsos.mn.gov
- 3BB2019 Ind Book for pdf web export.indblrl.mn.gov
- 4Minnesota Election Results 2024: Live Updatesapps.npr.org
- 5Minnesota Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Klobuchar vs. Demuth | Kalshikalshi.com
- 6Minnesota Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Klobuchar vs. Demuth | Kalshikalshi.com
- 7Minnesota Governor Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
- 82026 Minnesota General Election Previewstinson.com
- 92026 Minnesota Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 10Live odds: Minnesota Governor winner? | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
8. What polling data and fundraising metrics underpin Amy Klobuchar's lead over Lisa Demuth ahead of the November 2026 election?
| Klobuchar Polling Lead (270toWin) | 6.8 points (48.3% Klobuchar to 41.5% Demuth) [1] |
|---|---|
| Klobuchar Funds Raised | ~$13 million [2][3][4] |
| Klobuchar Win Probability (Kalshi) | ~95% [5] |
Sources (8)
- 12026 Polls: Minnesota Governor270towin.com
- 2Money in Minnesota governor's race is part of cash pouring...mprnews.org
- 3Klobuchar leads in fundraising as GOP megadonor floods...hastingstribune.com
- 4Demuth-affiliated political action committee receives $10...minnesotareformer.com
- 5Minnesota Governor Winner? 2026 Race Odds & Polls: Klobuchar vs. Demuth | Kalshikalshi.com
- 6Amy Klobuchar leads Lisa Demuth in governor's racestartribune.com
- 7Minnesota Poll: Klobuchar leads Demuth in race for governorkare11.com
- 8Sen. Amy Klobuchar leads in campaign donations, but...cbsnews.com
9. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: November 03, 2027
- Closes: November 03, 2027
Sources (12)
- 1Minnesota Governor winner? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2Minnesota Governor Election Winnerpolymarket.com
- 3Minnesota Governor · Elections Intelligenceelections.ftpadvocacy.com
- 42026 Minnesota Governor Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 5Minnesota Poll: Amy Klobuchar leads Lisa Demuth in governor’s racestartribune.com
- 62026 Polls: Minnesota Governor - 270toWin270towin.com
- 7Minnesota’s midterm election, by the numbersstartribune.com
- 8Money in Minnesota governor’s race is part of cash pouring in to sway Capitol power | MPR Newsmprnews.org
- 9Minnesota Governor Election Winner Odds: Amy Klobuchar (D) 95% | Polymarket Odds Todaypolymarkettrader.com
- 10The timeline leading up to Minnesota's 2026 gubernatorial...kttc.com
- 11Minnesota Secretary Of State - Elections Calendarsos.mn.gov
- 12Minnesota Secretary Of State - Candidate Filing Periodssos.mn.gov