Highest temperature in Las Vegas on May 13, 2026?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the highest temperature in Las Vegas on May 13, 2026, to be between 95° and 96°, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market has exhibited a sideways trend, trading within an extremely narrow 1-point range between 2.0% and 3.0%. The most significant price action occurred on May 12, when the contract's probability dropped from its starting price of 3.0% to 2.0%. This movement appears to be a direct reaction to weather forecasts becoming available, which indicated a high temperature around 100°F. With the historical record for the date being 103°F, these forecasts likely caused traders to reassess the probability of a record-breaking temperature downwards, leading to the price drop.
The volume pattern strongly supports this interpretation. A massive spike in trading volume, with over 1,300 contracts traded, coincided with the price falling to and settling at the 2.0% level. This high volume suggests strong market conviction that the lower probability is the more accurate valuation. Consequently, the 2.0% mark has been established as a firm support level, while the opening price of 3.0% acts as resistance. Overall, market sentiment is decidedly bearish, reflecting a consensus that while the day will be hot, it is highly unlikely to set a new all-time temperature record for that date.
- Specific forecasts anticipate the highest temperature around 95-96°F.
- May 13, 2026, marks the beginning of an expected cooling trend.
- The NWS Las Vegas zone forecast shows 92-96°F for the west side.
- Some other forecasts, however, predict a high of 100°F.
- Historical record for May 13 is 103°F.
Current Context
Forecasts predict Las Vegas highs around 100°F on May 13, 2026. Available forecasts for Las Vegas, Nevada, on May 13, 2026, indicate a highest temperature of approximately 100°F. One forecast predicts a daytime high of 100°F [1]. Another forecast for the Las Vegas Valley zone suggests highs between 92°F and 96°F on the west side, with temperatures reaching around 100°F on the east side [2].
Historical data provides context for potential record-breaking temperatures. To provide context for whether a temperature of approximately 100°F would establish a new record, historical weather data shows that the all-time record high for Las Vegas on May 13 is 103°F, which was set in 1996 [3].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 May 12, 2026: 20.0pp spike
Price increased from 54.0% to 74.0%
Outcome: 95° to 96°
What happened: The primary driver of the 20.0 percentage point spike was the release of updated weather forecasts. On May 12, 2026, the National Weather Service zone forecast, reported by the Las Vegas Sun News, indicated high temperatures for the Las Vegas Valley on May 13, 2026, would be 92–96°F on the west side [1]. This forecast directly coincided with the market movement for the "95° to 96°" outcome. Social media activity was not identified as a driver based on the available information.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
The market resolves to "Yes" if the maximum temperature recorded in Las Vegas on May 13, 2026, is between 95-96°F, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily); otherwise, it resolves to "No." The Last Trading Time is 11:59 PM local time on May 13, 2026, with expiration occurring after the data release or by May 14, 2026. Traders must use the official NWS report, be aware of potential rounding nuances in preliminary data, and are prohibited from insider trading.
Market Discussion
Forecasts for the highest temperature in Las Vegas on May 13, 2026, vary, with some anticipating around 95-96°F (35-36°C) [1][2], while others suggest highs near 105°F (41°C), potentially dropping to 103°F (39°C) [3]. This higher end aligns with reports from May 11, 2026, indicating that the week could bring some of the year's hottest temperatures, potentially exceeding the typical May average of 94°F (34°C) and breaking daily records [4][5]. Within federally regulated prediction markets for daily temperature, discussions often focus on probabilistic forecasting strategies and arbitrage opportunities, with contracts settled using official weather station data that some find "noisy" [6][7][8].
5. What specific weather patterns, like a high-pressure ridge or an unseasonal trough, could cause the May 13, 2026 temperature in Las Vegas to deviate significantly from long-term averages?
| Temperature anomaly due to strong ridge | +10-15°F [1] |
|---|---|
| Normal high for May 13 | 87.5°F (1991-2020) [2] |
| Peak high during strong ridge example | 104°F (May 11-12, 2026) [1][3] |
A strong high-pressure ridge could significantly elevate May 13 temperatures. This weather pattern is known to cause temperature anomalies of +10-15°F, as it pushes the jet stream northward and leads to warming in the region south of the ridge [1][4]. For instance, strong ridge conditions contributed to high temperatures reaching 104°F on May 11-12, 2026, suggesting that May 13, 2026, could also be considerably warmer than the long-term average if a similar ridge is present [1][3][5].
However, a trough intrusion could bring cooler, though still warm, temperatures. While temperatures might initially peak around 104°F, a subsequent trough could cause them to cool to 92-96°F on May 13 [1][5]. This would still be above the normal high for May 13, which is 87.5°F based on 1991-2020 data [2]. The overall average high for May in the area is 88.7°F [6].
Sources (6)
- 1Las Vegas Weather: High of 104 Mondayfox5vegas.com
- 2Las Vegas May 13 Weather Recordsextremeweatherwatch.com
- 3Las Vegas weather: Valley to see 100 again | Las Vegas Weather | Localreviewjournal.com
- 4West Faces Dangerous Record Temperatures | Weather.comweather.com
- 5NV Las Vegas NV Zone Forecast - Las Vegas Sun Newslasvegassun.com
- 6Las Vegas May Weatherextremeweatherwatch.com
6. How often has the daily high temperature in Las Vegas on May 13 exceeded 95°F and 100°F over the past 30 years of climate normals?
| Record High May 13 | 103°F in 1996 [1] |
|---|---|
| Average May Daily High (1991-2020) | 88.7°F [2] |
| Typical May Daily High Range | 85°F to 94°F [3] |
The provided research does not specify the frequency with which the daily high temperature on May 13 in Las Vegas has exceeded 95°F and 100°F over the past 30 years. Historical data indicates that the daily high temperature on May 13 has exceeded both 95°F and 100°F at least once in the past [1]. The record warm high for this specific date was 103°F, reached in 1996 [1].
May temperatures in Las Vegas generally range between 85°F and 94°F. Daily high temperatures in Las Vegas during May typically increase, ranging from 85°F to 94°F, and rarely fall below 74°F or exceed 104°F [3]. The average daily high temperature for the month of May, based on climate normals from 1991-2020, is 88.7°F [2]. While Las Vegas has experienced a historical warming trend with increasing monthly mean temperatures overall, May specifically showed a slight decrease in mean high temperatures when comparing the 1991-2020 normals to the 1981-2010 normals [4].
7. How do the long-range forecasts from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and commercial models like WeatherShogun compare in terms of accuracy for spring temperatures in the desert Southwest?
| Daily forecast accuracy decline | Rapidly decreases beyond 7 to 10 days [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Long-range daily prediction reliability | Inherently unreliable several weeks or months in advance [1][3][4][5] |
| Predictability desert timeframe | Two weeks to two months out [6] |
National Weather Service's CPC forecasts seasonal temperature anomalies with skill. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) provides long-range forecasts that focus on the probability of temperature anomalies over a season, indicating the likelihood of temperatures being above, near, or below normal, rather than specific daily temperatures [1][7][8][9][10]. These CPC outlooks have shown greater predictive skill than forecasts based solely on historical climate averages, with some ability to predict cooler-than-normal spring temperatures in parts of the Southwest [11].
Commercial models struggle with long-range specific daily temperature accuracy. While commercial models may offer specific daily temperature predictions far into the future, the accuracy of these daily specific forecasts rapidly decreases beyond 7 to 10 days [1][2]. Beyond this short timeframe, such commercial forecasts can lose skill, becoming no more accurate than simply using the historical average for that particular date [1]. Both government and commercial entities utilize numerical weather prediction models, and both confront the same fundamental limitations imposed by atmospheric chaos, meaning precise daily temperature predictions several weeks or months in advance are inherently unreliable [1][3][4][5]. The period between two weeks and two months out is sometimes referred to as the "predictability desert" due to these inherent forecasting challenges [6].
8. What temperature anomalies do long-term climate models, like the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), project for the Southwestern U.S. for Spring 2026?
| ENSO-neutral conditions | 80% chance through April-June 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| El Niño emergence | 61% chance in May-July 2026 [1] |
| SW US April 2026 temperatures | 10 to 15 degrees above typical April averages [2] |
Long-term climate models project warmer spring temperatures and evolving ENSO conditions. Long-term climate models predict an overall warmer-than-normal spring across much of the United States [3]. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) indicates an 80% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing through April-June 2026. This is expected to be followed by a likely emergence of El Niño in May-July 2026, with a 61% probability, which is projected to persist until the end of the year [1]. Some models even suggest the potential for a very strong El Niño to develop as early as June-August [4].
The Southwest experienced record heat and early summer conditions in spring. Specifically for the Southwestern U.S., March 2026 brought extreme and record-breaking temperatures, with certain areas experiencing conditions more typical of summer [5][6]. In April 2026, a "heat dome" caused early summer-like weather in parts of Arizona, Nevada, Texas, and New Mexico, where temperatures were 10 to 15 degrees above typical April averages [2]. The region known as the "Desert Southwest," which includes New Mexico, Arizona, and southeastern California, also reported warmer-than-usual temperatures during April [3].
May shows average temperatures, but summer outlook favors warmth. While average temperatures are projected for May in the Desert Southwest [3], the May-July seasonal temperature forecast for northern Arizona and northeastern New Mexico indicates a 40-50% chance of above-normal temperatures. Similar probabilities suggest above-normal temperatures for the remainder of Arizona and New Mexico during this specific period [4].
9. What were the specific atmospheric conditions that caused the record high of 103°F on May 13, 1996, and how do they compare to the long-range outlook for May 2026?
| Record High May 13, 1996 | 103°F [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Predicted High May 13, 2026 | 95°F to 96°F [3][4] |
| Cause for 2026 cooling trend | Front from Pacific Northwest [4] |
Las Vegas recorded a 103°F high on May 13, 1996, during a warm spring period. This temperature was part of a broader pattern of warm spring conditions and dangerous heat affecting the Southwest at that time [1][2]. However, specific atmospheric details that directly caused this particular record high are not outlined in the available information [1][2].
For May 13, 2026, the predicted highest temperature is approximately 95°F to 96°F, suggesting a cooling trend. This forecast attributes the cooler conditions to a front arriving from the Pacific Northwest, expected to bring breezy weather to Southern Nevada [3][4]. This follows an earlier period in May 2026 when temperatures in Las Vegas reached 104°F on May 11, setting a new record for that specific date [4]. The final resolution for prediction markets regarding May 13, 2026, will be based on the actual highest temperature recorded at the Harry Reid International Airport Station (KLAS), as reported by Weather Underground [1].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
The U.S. market is anticipated to benefit from several bullish catalysts, including the Federal Reserve's "dovish" stance and potential rate cuts, which are expected to boost business sentiment and growth [1][2]. Continued investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI) is also projected to drive market dynamics, support growth, and unlock new productivity potential [1][2]. Additionally, aggressive corporate spending and increased share buyback authorizations are expected to provide tailwinds for risk assets [3], while the global economy is projected to remain resilient, contributing to positive market performance, especially in developed and emerging markets [2].
Conversely, bearish catalysts include persistent inflation concerns, which could lead central banks to maintain higher interest rates [2]. Concerns exist regarding stretched valuations, particularly in technology and growth stocks, and the risk of earnings disappointments [3][4]. Economic inequality and the burden of debt and interest rates could create an economic drag [3]. Market volatility and corrections are anticipated, with some analysts noting "bearish divergences" and "deteriorating price action" in early 2026, suggesting a potential market correction [3][4]. Additionally, increased regulatory attention on prediction markets is a concern; for example, in May 2026, the U.S. Senate unanimously banned its members, officers, and staff from trading on prediction markets due to concerns about insider trading and public trust, which could lead to further restrictions [5].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Strike Date: May 14, 2026
- Expiration: May 20, 2026
- Closes: May 14, 2026
12. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 20 markets in this series
Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 17 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXHIGHTLV-26MAY11-T107: NO (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTLV-26MAY11-T100: NO (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTLV-26MAY11-B106.5: NO (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTLV-26MAY11-B104.5: YES (May 12, 2026)
- KXHIGHTLV-26MAY11-B102.5: NO (May 12, 2026)
