Short Answer

Both the model and the market identify December 31, 2026, as the most likely outcome for a Ukrainian election, though current Ukrainian law and ongoing martial law deem elections by this date not feasible.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market shows a low and stable probability for a Ukrainian election by the end of 2025. The price has remained in a narrow band between 5.5% and 8.5%, opening at 7.0% and currently trading at 5.5%. The overall trend is sideways, with a minor downward adjustment from 7.0% to 5.5% around July 30, 2026. The price action directly reflects public statements from Ukrainian officials, who have ruled out holding elections during active combat under martial law. The market is pricing in the high barrier of a required ceasefire before any vote can be scheduled, anchoring the probability at a very low level.
The most critical feature of this market is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the price movements are not the result of transactions between participants but likely reflect adjustments in the bid-ask spread by a market maker or standing orders. This lack of volume indicates a dormant market with no active participation or conviction from traders. The consensus is both strong and uncontested: the event is perceived as highly unlikely.
The price range itself defines the market's technical levels, with 5.5% acting as support and 8.5% as resistance. Sentiment is consistently bearish on the prospect of a 2025 election. The low, flat price line, combined with zero volume, suggests the market is effectively pricing in the official prerequisites for an election, primarily the cessation of hostilities, as a remote possibility within the contract's timeframe.
  • Elections by December 31, 2026, are officially deemed not feasible.
  • Ukrainian law prohibits elections during continuous martial law.
  • Ceasefire and six-month preparation are required, but diplomatic efforts failed.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
December 31, 2026 5.0% 1.7% Ukrainian law prohibits elections during ongoing martial law, making them not feasible by December 31, 2026.

Current Context

Ukraine has not held a presidential election since 2019. The 2024 election was postponed due to martial law, which remains in effect as of August 6, 2026 [1]. Ukrainian leadership and the Central Election Commission explicitly ruled out elections during active combat, stating that a ceasefire must precede any vote [1][2][3]. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated this condition in December 2025 [4].
Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have intensified recently. Following a July 28, 2026, meeting in Washington between President Zelenskyy and U.S. President Donald Trump, peace negotiations gained momentum [5][6][7][8]. Zelenskyy maintains daily contact with Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who are expected to visit Kyiv in August 2026 to advance these discussions [5][6][7]. Broader geopolitical developments between Ukraine and the United States continue to focus on ceasefire terms, security guarantees, and the conflict with Russia [9][10][11][12][13].
A recent poll indicates a tight hypothetical presidential race. As of August 2026, a SOCIS Social and Marketing Research Center poll shows incumbent Volodymyr Zelenskyy with 22.3% and former Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi with 21.4% among decided voters [14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Ukraine rules out elections in 2026, citing war risks and legal hurdles / The New Voice of Ukraineenglish.nv.ua
  2. 2Ukraine will not hold elections until a ceasefire is in place, Zelensky says - France 24france24.com
  3. 3Zelensky won't announce elections on war anniversary amid talks of US-driven timelinekyivindependent.com
  4. 4Zelenskyy says Ukraine ceasefire is needed first to hold...newsroom.ap.org
  5. 5Trump’s Top Peace Envoys Set for First Kyiv Trip as Ukraine Seeks War Exit Talkskyivpost.com
  6. 6Zelensky Says Ukraine in Daily Contact With Trump Teamkyivpost.com
  7. 7Zelenskyy says Ukraine ready for all meeting formats and counting on Trump envoys Witkoff and Kushner | Ukrainska Pravdapravda.com.ua
  8. 8Analysis: One Week On: Was Zelensky’s Washington Visit Really a Success?kyivpost.com
  9. 9Zelenskyy and Europe's top leaders will meet with... - Newsroomnewsroom.ap.org
  10. 10With little progress after phone calls and talks, Ukraine's allies hit Russia with new sanctions | The Associated Pressap.org
  11. 11Trump says he doesn't think 'we need a ceasefire' but adds...newsroom.ap.org
  12. 12Starmer and Macron step up to shape European security as Trump roils relations | The Associated Pressap.org
  13. 13Newsminute April 25 2026 | The Associated Pressap.org
  14. 14Election survey: Zelenskyy, Zaluzhnyi top new poll / The New Voice of Ukraineenglish.nv.ua

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if national elections for the Ukrainian parliament or presidency are actually held between February 12, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A "No" resolution occurs if no elections are held within this period, or if elections are officially scheduled for a date outside this timeframe. Merely scheduling an election is insufficient for a "Yes" resolution, and settlement will be based on official Ukrainian government information or a consensus of credible reporting.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
December 31, 2026 $0.06 $0.95 5%

Market Discussion

Traders overwhelmingly anticipate that Ukraine will not hold national elections for parliament and/or presidency between February 2025 and December 2026, with market probabilities for "Yes" currently very low, often dipping to 0-1%. This strong sentiment is driven by the constitutional prohibition under martial law (renewed through at least October 2026), the Central Election Commission's logistical requirements post-martial law, and President Zelenskyy's and public's strong opposition to wartime voting without security guarantees. The consensus reflects that the ongoing conflict, combined with legal and practical thresholds, makes elections highly improbable within the specified timeframe.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 47 High Risk

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score54Caution
Trade quality20% of score21Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $1,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score47High Risk

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 2 don't apply · 3 awaiting data
Market integrity
74Good

Outcome is hard to influence

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
30High Risk
Information exposureStructural risk · medium confidence

Official decision: one office decides and holds the answer before the public

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · data source not connected
Longshot repricing · data source not connected
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
25Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

1 contract · 2 settled or closed — not scored

December 31, 202625
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract · 2 settled or closed — not scored

December 31, 2026—
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 2 settled or closed — not scored

December 31, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
21Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 25 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 5.5c slippage (~367% of a 1.5c contract)

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

2 settled or closed — not scored

December 31, 202625Market scoreLiquidity25Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 25
Liquidity
25 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (24h)

Price was stable over the last 24 hours.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 20, 2026

5. What potential diplomatic breakthroughs in the Trump-Zelenskyy negotiations could trigger a ceasefire and pave the way for a Ukrainian election before 2027?

Ukrainian Election ConditionRequires a ceasefire as elections are prohibited under martial law [1][2][3][4]
Zelenskyy Election Readiness60-90 days after a secure ceasefire, with U.S. and allied security support [1][2][3][4]
Election Probability by 20269-14% according to prediction markets [5][6][7][8]
A potential diplomatic breakthrough in negotiations between Trump and Zelenskyy could involve a proposed peace framework that includes U.S.-backed security guarantees for Ukraine [1][9][10][11]. These guarantees would be exchanged for territorial and ceasefire concessions, though they remain under negotiation and require legislative ratification [1][9][10][11]. For a Ukrainian election to occur before 2027, a ceasefire is essential, as current Ukrainian law prohibits elections under martial law [1][2][3][4]. President Zelenskyy has stated his readiness to hold elections 60-90 days after a secure ceasefire, provided the United States and its allies help ensure the security of the ballot [1][2][3][4].
Current diplomatic efforts face significant friction and have stalled progress. As of August 2026, diplomatic efforts involving Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy have failed to achieve a lasting ceasefire or a peace treaty, despite numerous high-level phone calls and proposals [12][13][14]. Negotiations have been characterized by considerable friction, including reports of Trump marginalizing Ukraine in discussions with Russia, testy interactions between Trump and Zelenskyy, and Russia imposing preconditions that Zelenskyy has described as attempts to continue the war [12][15][14].
Markets show low probability for a Ukrainian election before 2027. Prediction markets currently assign a very low probability, approximately 9-14%, to a Ukrainian election taking place before December 31, 2026 [5][6][7][8]. This reflects significant skepticism concerning the feasibility of both establishing a ceasefire and holding a national vote within that timeframe [5][6][7][8]. Expert-curated sources focused on U.S. federal election administration do not offer information or predictions regarding the holding of a Ukrainian election by 2027 [16][17][18][19].
Sources (19)
  1. 1Ukraine wants 20-year US security guarantee to sign...theguardian.com
  2. 2Ukraine Considers Legal Path To Elections Under Martial Law As US Pushes For Voterferl.org
  3. 3Ukraine’s election chief warns against a rushed post-war vote | Quews Newsquews.news
  4. 4Ukraine's Zelenskyy denies using war to delay elections, seeks US help | AP Newsapnews.com
  5. 5Ukraine election held by...? Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  6. 6Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?tomorrowodds.com
  7. 7Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026 89% No · Polymarketexplorer.struct.to
  8. 8PrediRouteapp.prediroute.com
  9. 9Zelenskyy, Trump conclude Florida meeting on ending Ukraine warglobal.espreso.tv
  10. 10Zelensky says he hopes first Ukraine, Russia and US talks...bbc.com
  11. 11What price for peace in Ukraine?brookings.edu
  12. 12With little progress after phone calls and talks, Ukraine's allies hit Russia with new sanctions | The Associated Pressap.org
  13. 13Putin agrees in principle with proposal for Ukraine ceasefire and says more discussions are needed | The Associated Pressap.org
  14. 14Starmer and Macron step up to shape European security as Trump roils relations | The Associated Pressap.org
  15. 15AP Interview: Zelenskyy says excluding Ukraine from U.S.-Russia talks about war is 'very dangerous' | The Associated Pressap.org
  16. 16FEC | Election and voting informationfec.gov
  17. 17Congressional Primary Dates and Candidate Filing Deadlines for Ballot Accessfec.gov
  18. 18Federal Election Activity dates for 2026 electionsfec.gov
  19. 19Enacted election legislation, 2026 - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org

6. What are the primary legal precedents and logistical challenges cited by Ukraine's Central Election Commission that prevent an election before martial law is lifted?

Legal ProhibitionUkrainian law prohibits elections during martial law [1][2][3]
Constitutional BasisArticle 64 of the Constitution allows restriction of voting rights during martial law [1][4]
Post-Martial Law Prep6 months to 1 year preparation needed after martial law lifts before elections can be held [5][6][7]
Ukrainian law explicitly prohibits elections during martial law. The primary legal impediments cited by Ukraine's Central Election Commission include the 'Law on the Legal Regime of Martial Law' and the Electoral Code, both of which explicitly forbid presidential, parliamentary, and local elections while martial law is in effect [1][2][3]. Further supporting this, Article 64 of the Ukrainian Constitution permits the restriction of voting and electoral participation rights during such periods [1][4].
Logistical complexities present substantial obstacles to holding elections. Active hostilities across the country pose a direct threat to the safety of both voters and poll workers, making the secure organization of elections currently impossible [1][5][8]. Furthermore, ensuring safe voting is unattainable for millions of internally displaced citizens and refugees residing abroad, as well as for those living in Russian-occupied territories [1][5][6]. Secure voting for active-duty military personnel on the front lines is also currently unfeasible [5][8][6]. Even after martial law concludes, experts suggest a significant post-war preparation period, ranging from six months to one year, will be necessary to update voter rolls, repair damaged infrastructure, and draft new electoral legislation to adapt to the changed demographic and security landscape [5][6][7].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Why Zelensky Can't Hold Elections Yetlawfaremedia.org
  2. 2Legal information on the impossibility of holding elections...oporaua.org
  3. 3Ukrainian authorities’ legitimacy when elections are impossibleepde.org
  4. 4Ukraine's Zelenskyy denies using war to delay elections, seeks US help | AP Newsapnews.com
  5. 5Ukraine election rumours: Is Zelensky mulling a summer poll?bbc.com
  6. 6Why Elections in Ukraine Will Not End the War – Foreign Policyforeignpolicy.com
  7. 7Supporting Ukraine’s Democracy After the War: Key Issues, Comparative Experience and Best Practicesidea.int
  8. 8Ukraine hasn't held elections since Russia's full-scale invasion. Here's why | AP Newsapnews.com

7. How do the publicly stated conditions for ending the war from Volodymyr Zelenskyy compare to those of his potential rival, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi?

Zelenskyy's Stated ConditionsImmediate ceasefire, negotiations based on current line of contact, robust security guarantees, compensation for damages, safeguarding EU/NATO pathways (June 2026) [1][2][3]
Zelenskyy's Current FocusSustainable and just peace, security guarantees, avoiding scenarios for Russia to rearm (August 2026) [4][5][6][7][8]
Zaluzhnyi's View of VictorySecurity, possibilities for development, and Ukrainians living in their own homes [9][10]
President Zelenskyy has detailed clear, comprehensive conditions for ending the war. His publicly stated conditions, reinforced in a June 2026 joint statement, include an immediate ceasefire, negotiations based on the current line of contact without ceding territory, robust and legally binding security guarantees for Ukraine, compensation for war damages through Russian assets, and safeguarding European security interests regarding EU/NATO pathways [1][2][3]. As of August 2026, President Zelenskyy’s position further emphasizes achieving a sustainable and just peace, which includes security guarantees and avoiding scenarios where Russia can rearm or continue the war. He has expressed skepticism toward Russian peace overtures, viewing them as tactics to stall or gain leverage, and has consistently rejected Russian demands that involve halting Western military aid to Ukraine [4][5][6][7][8]. Zelenskyy has engaged in U.S.-backed negotiations, including a 30-day ceasefire proposal, while maintaining that any negotiations must include Ukraine as a direct party [6][8][11].
Valeriy Zaluzhnyi has offered broad definitions of victory, not specific conditions. In contrast, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, currently Ukraine's ambassador to the UK, has publicly stated that victory means security, possibilities for development, and Ukrainians living in their own homes [9][10]. He has, however, avoided laying out specific diplomatic conditions for ending the war, emphasizing that the focus must remain on the war effort [9][10]. The provided sources offer no publicly available evidence documenting a formal policy platform or specific conditions for ending the war from Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, nor any evidence suggesting him as an active electoral rival to Zelenskyy in 2026 [4][5][6][7][8][11][12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Zelensky's close European allies set out five conditions for...bbc.com
  2. 2Ukraine's Peace Formula Philosophypresident.gov.ua
  3. 3Ukraine, UK, France and Germany agree on five conditions...pravda.com.ua
  4. 4With little progress after phone calls and talks, Ukraine's allies hit Russia with new sanctions | The Associated Pressap.org
  5. 5Zelenskyy and Putin have agreed to a limited ceasefire, but...ap.org
  6. 6US resumes military aid and intelligence sharing as Ukraine...ap.org
  7. 7Trump says Putin told him that Russia will respond to... - AP.orgap.org
  8. 8Trump and Putin agree to an immediate ceasefire for energy...ap.org
  9. 9Gen. Zaluzhnyi on Ukraine's War for Survivalrussiamatters.org
  10. 10In conversation with Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukrainian...chathamhouse.org
  11. 11AP Interview: Zelenskyy says excluding Ukraine from U.S.-Russia talks about war is 'very dangerous' | The Associated Pressap.org
  12. 12Putin agrees in principle with proposal for Ukraine ceasefire and says more discussions are needed | The Associated Pressap.org

8. How might conditions attached to future U.S. and E.U. aid packages for Ukraine in late 2025 or 2026 pressure the Zelenskyy government to hold elections?

U.S. pressure for electionsActive as of February 2026 [1]
Probability of 2026 elections6-9% by December 31, 2026 [2][3][4]
Critical support durationThroughout 2025 [5]
The United States administration consistently pressures the Zelenskyy government to hold elections, often linking this condition to continued security assistance and future aid packages [6][7][8][9][1][5]. This pressure persists even though Ukraine's constitution prohibits elections under martial law [6][7][8][9]. President Zelenskyy has expressed a willingness to hold elections, provided that international allies offer security guarantees and the necessary legal adjustments are made to accommodate wartime conditions [7][8][10][9].
However, Ukraine faces substantial practical challenges to holding wartime elections. Significant practical and logistical barriers currently hinder the feasibility of holding elections in late 2025 or 2026. These obstacles include the ongoing conflict, challenges in ensuring voter safety, the potential disenfranchisement of millions of displaced citizens and front-line soldiers, and widespread public opposition to wartime voting [7][10]. Consequently, prediction markets currently assign a low probability, approximately 6-9%, to national elections occurring in Ukraine by December 31, 2026 [2][3][4].
Sources (10)
  1. 1Former army chief seen as Zelenskyy's top rival reveals to AP...ap.org
  2. 2Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?tomorrowodds.com
  3. 3Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026 89% No · Polymarketexplorer.struct.to
  4. 4Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? — 8% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me
  5. 5Zelenskyy and Putin have agreed to a limited ceasefire, but...ap.org
  6. 6Ukraine: if elections are held this spring, who might be the next president? - Yahoo News UKuk.news.yahoo.com
  7. 7Ukraine’s election chief warns against a rushed post-war vote | Quews Newsquews.news
  8. 8Ukraine's Zelenskyy denies using war to delay elections, seeks US help | AP Newsapnews.com
  9. 9Ukraine Considers Legal Path To Elections Under Martial Law As US Pushes For Voterferl.org
  10. 10Office of the President of Ukraine: elections possible only if security ensured | Censor.NETcensor.net

9. What is the minimum required timeline between the end of martial law and the holding of a legitimate presidential election, according to Ukrainian law?

Election timeline after martial lawNo specific minimum mandated [1]
Commonly cited election preparation90-day period [1]
Elections during martial lawProhibited by law [2]
Ukrainian law prohibits presidential elections while martial law is active. Martial law has been continuously enforced in Ukraine since February 2022 and remains in effect as of August 6, 2026, preventing any polls from being held during this period [2]. While existing legislation and political discussions often refer to a 90-day period for presidential elections following the cessation of martial law, Ukrainian law does not currently mandate a specific, universally defined minimum timeline for this transition [1].
New legislation will define specifics for post-war elections. Officials have indicated that new laws are necessary to address the specificities of holding elections once martial law ends, with some proposals suggesting a six-month preparatory period [2]. The process for holding an election is contingent upon security conditions being fully ensured, and official statements suggest that elections could potentially occur within months of martial law's termination [3].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Ukraine election rumours: Is Zelensky mulling a summer poll?bbc.com
  2. 2Ukrainian authorities’ legitimacy when elections are impossibleepde.org
  3. 3Ukrainian President says elections could happen within...newsroom.ap.org

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

As of August 6, 2026, no national elections are scheduled in Ukraine. Ukrainian law prohibits elections during martial law, which has been repeatedly extended since the 2022 invasion [1]. Official working groups and government officials have determined that elections in 2026 are not feasible, citing the necessity of a ceasefire, a six-month preparatory period, and security guarantees [1][2][3].
The primary catalysts for a potential election include a formal ceasefire and the subsequent cessation of martial law, which would initiate a multi-month legislative and electoral preparation period [4][1][5]. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket and Manifold, currently assign a very low probability, typically under 10%, to an election being held in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, viewing it as a long-shot scenario [6][7][4][8][9]. Market observers note the window for a 2026 election is rapidly closing [4][1][5].
A diplomatic thaw has occurred between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as of mid-2026, following strained relations in early 2025 [10][11][12][13][14]. The leaders have discussed joint production of Patriot missile interceptors and the potential to reinvigorate peace negotiations with Russia [10][11][12][13][14]. While Ukraine remains in conflict with Russia as of August 6, 2026, such diplomatic shifts could influence the conditions necessary for a ceasefire [15].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: December 31, 2026
Sources (15)
  1. 1When will the elections be held in Ukraine – the decision of the working group | Ukrainian News | LIGA.netnews.liga.net
  2. 2Ukraine will not hold elections until a ceasefire is in place, Zelensky says - France 24france24.com
  3. 3Zelenskyy denies plan to announce elections in Ukraine soon despite pressure from Trump - CBS Newscbsnews.com
  4. 4Ukraine holds elections in 2026? | Manifoldmanifold.markets
  5. 5CEC proposes 6-month preparatory period after end of martial law before start of electoral processen.interfax.com.ua
  6. 6Ukraine election held by...? Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  7. 7Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? — 8% | Orrery market check | Orreryorrery.me
  8. 8Will Ukraine call an election by December 31, 2026?lines.com
  9. 9Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?tomorrowodds.com
  10. 10Zelenskyy says he and Trump had 'good meeting' before Graham funeral | AP Newsapnews.com
  11. 11Analysis: One Week On: Was Zelensky’s Washington Visit Really a Success?kyivpost.com
  12. 12Trump meets Zelenskyy as Russia-Ukraine, U.S.-Iran wars collidecnbc.com
  13. 13Trump, Zelenskyy discuss Patriot deal and reviving talks with Russiadefensenews.com
  14. 14Ukraine’s Zelenskyy hails ‘good meeting’ with Trump at White House | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeeraaljazeera.com
  15. 15Protest in Kyiv against Zelenskyy's decision to dismiss...newsroom.ap.org