Yes
Market Model 60.0% 56.7%
Topic tracker · Geopolitics
Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal
Every prediction market Kalshi has run in this series — 2 so far (1 live, 1 closed) — with Octagon's independent model probability tracked against the market at each print. This page is updated as new Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal markets list, so it always points at the current market and keeps the resolved history below.
Last updated September 1, 2026
Live market
Series history
Closed markets in this series, newest first, with the final Octagon model vs market read before close. Each report stays live with its full analysis.
| Market | Closed | Model vs market | Actions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...? | September 1, 2026 | 0.1% vs 0.1% | Report → |
