Short Answer

A leadership change in Iran by June 30, 2027, is not expected. Despite a higher underlying risk suggested by Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged public absence and health speculation, the regime's active perception management keeps the event priced at 26.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market is pricing the odds of a further change in Iran's leadership by September 30, 2026, following the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader. The initial probability of approximately 16.5% appears to be a baseline assessment of instability after his father, Ali Khamenei, was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026. The succession was an unprecedented father-to-son transfer of power for the Islamic Republic.
The market has been static, with price fluctuations contained within a tight four-point range. No reported events coincide with the minor price drift. The defining characteristic of this market is zero trading volume. This absence of activity indicates that the price movement does not reflect any new information or changing sentiment among traders. The price is effectively a placeholder, not a live consensus derived from trades.
  • Since last update (~28d): Headline model probability rose +6.1pp, significantly compressing its previous -5.9pp edge.
  • Market probability increased +2.0pp, trailing the larger model-led movement.
  • Confidence score decreased by -1.0pp; several new outcomes appeared, and others were removed.
  • Leadership change by June 30, 2027, may occur from Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged absence.
  • Overall risk of leadership change appears higher due to fragmented power structure.
  • Change by September 30, 2026, appears unlikely; state media released counter-footage.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
October 31 5.0% 4.6% Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged absence and health speculation suggest an underlying risk of leadership change.
November 30 10.0% 9.0% Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged absence and health speculation suggest an underlying risk of leadership change.
December 31 14.0% 14.2% Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged absence and health speculation suggest an underlying risk of leadership change.
December 31 16.0% 14.2% Mojtaba Khamenei's prolonged absence and health speculation suggest an underlying risk of leadership change.
June 30, 2027 23.0% 25.6% The longest timeframe allows more opportunity for cumulative effects of anomalous leadership or health issues.

Current Context

Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Supreme Leader after his father's death. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026 [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Following his death, an interim governing council was named, consisting of President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary head Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and Guardian Council member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi [4]. The Assembly of Experts selected Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his father as Supreme Leader of Iran on March 8, 2026 [1][7][3][5][6].
The new Supreme Leader's prolonged absence has fragmented power. As of September 1, 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei has not made any public appearances, delivered a speech, or appeared in a photograph or video since his appointment six months ago [2][8][9][10]. Official sources maintain he is alive and actively involved in decision-making from seclusion, recovering from severe, disfiguring injuries sustained in the February airstrike [2][8][9][10]. This lack of verifiable public presence has fueled significant speculation among domestic and international observers regarding his status and capability to function as the regime's final arbiter [2][9][11]. In his absence, power in Iran has become increasingly fragmented. Key decision-making is coordinated by a reconfigured ruling system, including the Supreme National Security Council, with military and security figures like Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr holding influential roles [8][12][13][14].
Sources (14)
  1. 1Supreme leader of Iran | Powers, How Chosen, Mojtaba...britannica.com
  2. 2Dead or alive? The mystery of Iran's absent leader - ABC Newsabc.net.au
  3. 3U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  4. 4U.S. and Israeli Military Operations Against Iran: Issues for Congress | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  5. 5U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  6. 6U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  7. 7Iran's new supreme leader remains out of sight as nation mourns his father | Reutersreuters.com
  8. 8Iran’s unseen supreme leader fuels questions over who is in charge | Daily Sabahdailysabah.com
  9. 9Iran's disfigured supreme leader remains invisible six months into an existential war | Reutersreuters.com
  10. 10Who is in charge in Iran today?: Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged absence from the public eye sparks a crisis of legitimacyatalayar.com
  11. 11Iranians call for ‘any sign’ supreme leader is alive 6 months into war | The Independentindependent.co.uk
  12. 12Iran’s New Leaderstime.com
  13. 13'Smart' and 'very rational'? Iran's new leaders post-Ali Khamenei - AL-MONITOR: The Middle Eastʼs leading independent news source since 2012al-monitor.com
  14. 14Is Iran's new supreme leader taking up the reins of power?france24.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to "Yes" if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto Supreme Leader of Iran due to removal, detention, loss of position, or being prevented from acting as leader, at any point between the market's creation (June 29, 2026) and its specific listed end date. An official announcement of his resignation or removal also triggers a "Yes" resolution regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, it resolves "No" if he remains the de facto leader until the specific end date, with resolution based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
October 31 $0.06 $0.95 5%
November 30 $0.09 $0.92 10%
December 31 $0.15 $0.86 14%
December 31 $0.16 $0.85 16%
June 30, 2027 $0.24 $0.77 23%
June 30, 2027 $0.26 $0.75 26%

Market Discussion

Market participants are actively discussing the true status of Iran's leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, particularly given his prolonged public absence and reports of a collective leadership. Key arguments for a 'Yes' resolution, indicating a leadership change, revolve around speculation that Khamenei may be dead or incapacitated, with the IRGC or other officials effectively governing in his name. In contrast, arguments for a 'No' resolution include direct quotes attributed to Khamenei by some traders, suggesting he is alive and active, with the overall market prices reflecting low probabilities for a change by the various listed dates.

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Polymarket 68 Caution

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Integrity risk· Outcome control

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score69Caution
Trade quality20% of score62Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score68Caution

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity5 screens run · 4 don't apply · 1 awaiting data
Market integrity
65Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Outcome controlStructural risk · high confidence

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Screened clean
Participant influenceNo conflicted participant detected. Clear
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsTrade sizes look organic. Clear
1 screen not run
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · data source not connected
Resolution quality
60Caution

Settlement depends on token voting

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Check the rules

Settlement is decided by a token-holder vote.

Liquidity
76Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

4 contracts · worst first · 10 settled or closed — not scored

November 3033
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

October 3174
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

June 30, 202779
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

December 3180
Tradeable · medium confidence

Typical bar range 4.2% of price over 3 traded bars

24h traded notional $2,755 · 24h
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

4 contracts · worst first · 10 settled or closed — not scored

June 30, 2027—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

December 31—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

November 30—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

October 31—
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
80Check the rules

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

4 contracts · worst first · 10 settled or closed — not scored

June 30, 202780
Check the rules · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Unclearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
December 3180
Check the rules · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Unclearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
November 3080
Check the rules · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Unclearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
October 3180
Check the rules · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Unclearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
62Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 77 (notional-weighted across 4 scored legs)

$100 order: 1.0c slippage (~4% of a 22.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 1.4c slippage (~6% of a 22.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

10 settled or closed — not scored

June 30, 202779Market scoreLiquidity79Move quality–Rule clarity80
Why 79
Liquidity
79 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
80 · Check the rules · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Unclearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
December 3180Market scoreLiquidity80Move quality–Rule clarity80
Why 80
Liquidity
80 · Tradeable · medium confidence

Typical bar range 4.2% of price over 3 traded bars

24h traded notional $2,755 · 24h
Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
80 · Check the rules · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Unclearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
November 3033Market scoreLiquidity33Move quality–Rule clarity80
Why 33
Liquidity
33 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
80 · Check the rules · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Unclearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
October 3174Market scoreLiquidity74Move quality–Rule clarity80
Why 74
Liquidity
74 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No significant move (6h)

Price was stable over the last 6 hours.

Rule clarity
80 · Check the rules · low confidence

Settles on a clear result. Verify the settlement source and resolution date.

objective outcome · Unclearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Oct 2, 2026

5. What is the most recent verifiable evidence from Iranian state media or foreign intelligence regarding Mojtaba Khamenei's health and capacity to govern?

Video/Image Release DateSeptember 1, 2026 [1][2][3]
Reported Meeting DurationSeven hours (August 2026) [1]
Supreme Leader AppointmentEarly March 2026 [4]
State media asserts Mojtaba Khamenei's full health and leadership. As of September 1, 2026, Iranian state-affiliated media released video footage and images of Mojtaba Khamenei, asserting his full physical health [1][2][3]. This release followed President Masoud Pezeshkian's claim in August 2026 to have met with him for seven hours [1]. Officials consistently maintain that Mojtaba Khamenei remains in charge [4].
Despite official claims, Mojtaba Khamenei's public absence fuels health speculation. He has been largely absent from public view since his appointment as Supreme Leader in early March 2026, following his father's death [4]. Verifiable evidence concerning his condition remains limited, and international reports have fueled speculation about severe injuries, including disfiguring facial and leg trauma, allegedly sustained in the same strike that killed Ali Khamenei [4][5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Iran's supreme leader in 'full physical health,' president saysaa.com.tr
  2. 2After Months Outside Public View, Iran Releases Footage...palestinechronicle.com
  3. 3Iran has released a rare video of Supreme Leader Mojtaba...facebook.com
  4. 4Will Mojtaba Khamenei's absence help the Islamic...iranintl.com
  5. 5Iranian Health Ministry Releases New Details on Mojtaba...kurdistan24.net
  6. 6Iran's new supreme leader has severe and disfiguring...reuters.com

6. What internal events could force a definitive statement on Mojtaba Khamenei's status from the Assembly of Experts before 2027?

Mojtaba Khamenei's successionearly March 2026 [1]
Ali Khamenei's deathFebruary 2026 [1]
Constitutional basis for removalArticle 111 of the Iranian constitution [2][3][4]
Mojtaba Khamenei's succession is marked by injury and public absence. He was selected by the Assembly of Experts as the successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in early March 2026, following Ali Khamenei's death in February 2026 [1]. However, his leadership is currently characterized by uncertainty due to persistent reports of injuries sustained during the transition period and a notable lack of public appearances [5]. This situation has fueled speculation regarding his actual capacity to govern, with questions arising about the extent of power exercised by IRGC hardliners [5].
Worsening health could compel the Assembly of Experts to act. Internal events that could force a definitive statement on Mojtaba Khamenei's status from the Assembly of Experts before 2027 primarily stem from this uncertain leadership [5]. Should his condition deteriorate further, the Assembly of Experts possesses the legal authority to supervise and potentially remove the Supreme Leader in the event of incapacity, as outlined in Article 111 of the Iranian constitution [2][3][4]. This constitutional provision establishes a mechanism for a potential leadership change, which would necessitate a definitive statement on his status from the Assembly of Experts [2][3][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-bypolymarket.com
  2. 2Moving to a post-Khamenei era: The role of the Assembly...mei.edu
  3. 3Supreme Leader of Iranen.wikipedia.org
  4. 4After Khamenei: Iran enters its most uncertain transition...mei.edu
  5. 5Iran’s leadership under scrutiny as Mojtaba Khamenei’s injuries deepen succession concerns | Noah Intelligencenoah-news.com

7. How does the current fragmented power structure, involving the Supreme National Security Council, compare to the centralized authority of the previous Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei?

New Supreme Leader SelectedMarch 2026 [1][2][3]
Mojtaba Khamenei Leadership StyleFragmented, collective, hardline, dominated by IRGC and military-intelligence networks [4][5][6]
Supreme National Security Council SecretaryMohsen Rezaei [4][6][7]
Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership marks a fragmented shift from centralized authority. Following his father Ali Khamenei's assassination on February 28, 2026, and his subsequent selection as Supreme Leader in March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts, Mojtaba Khamenei's rule has introduced a notable shift in Iran's power dynamics [1][2][3]. His leadership is characterized by a fragmented, collective, and hardline decision-making model, heavily influenced by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and military-intelligence networks [4][5][6]. This approach stands in sharp contrast to the highly centralized personal authority that defined his predecessor's leadership [4][5][6].
The Supreme National Security Council's role has significantly evolved under new leadership. Under Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) has undergone significant changes in its influence and function [4][6][7]. The appointment of IRGC veteran Mohsen Rezaei as the council's secretary signals a deeper institutional control by the security establishment, superseding traditional presidential and civilian authorities [4][6][7]. Despite these structural changes, prediction markets indicate a strong consensus among traders for Mojtaba Khamenei's continued leadership through the end of 2026, with consistently low odds for any immediate leadership change [2][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Iran's new supreme leader 'likely disfigured,' Hegseth saysnbcnews.com
  2. 2Iran leader end of 2026? Predictions & Oddspolymarket.com
  3. 3https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by/iran-leadership-change-by-june-30-689-922polymarket.com
  4. 4Iran's president says Guards commanders are wrecking...iranintl.com
  5. 5Iran Leadership Change: Mojtaba Khamenei's Grip Tested | PolyVeritaspolyveritas.com
  6. 6How Iran's Supreme National Security Council works, and who gets...iranintl.com
  7. 7Iran Taps Longtime I.R.G.C. Commander Mohsen Rezaei to Top...nytimes.com
  8. 8Iran leadership change by...? Predictions & Odds 2026polymarket.com
  9. 9Iran Regime Prediction Markets & Live Odds 2026polymarket.com

8. What does historical data on Ali Khamenei's public appearances in his first year as Supreme Leader reveal about the anomaly of Mojtaba Khamenei's current absence?

Ali Khamenei became Supreme Leader1989 [1][2]
Mojtaba Khamenei appointed Supreme LeaderMarch 8, 2026 [3][4][5][6]
Mojtaba's attributed absence reasonSevere facial injuries and high-level security risks [3][4][5][6]
Ali Khamenei actively consolidated power in his first year. Upon becoming Supreme Leader in 1989, he demonstrated active public engagement, immediately working to consolidate power. He issued time-limited appointments and restructured organizations to extend control over both public and private life, despite initial challenges regarding his religious credentials and charismatic authority compared to his predecessor [1][2].
Mojtaba Khamenei's public absence is officially explained. In stark contrast, Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed Supreme Leader on March 8, 2026, following his father's death in February 2026, has maintained a complete public absence. Official regime sources explain this absence by citing severe, disfiguring facial injuries sustained during the strike that killed his father, as well as high-level security and assassination risks [3].
Mojtaba's prolonged public absence fosters decentralized authority. Unlike Ali Khamenei's hands-on power consolidation in his first year, Mojtaba Khamenei's sustained public absence has fostered a unique, decentralized authority structure. In this new arrangement, decisions are conveyed exclusively through written statements, and policy directions are increasingly interpreted or directly guided by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other key establishment networks [3].
Sources (6)
  1. 1TIGHTENING THE REINSwashingtoninstitute.org
  2. 2The Islamic Republic of Iran: An introductionfiles.ethz.ch
  3. 3How the absence of Iran's Mojtaba Khamenei is becoming...reuters.com
  4. 4The strange power of Iran's absent supreme leaderiranintl.com
  5. 5Mojtaba Khamenei's absence signals shifting role for...timesofisrael.com
  6. 6How the absence of Iran's new supreme leader is...al-monitor.com

9. How might a major regional military escalation involving Israel or the US impact the stability of Iran's current collective leadership arrangement?

Supreme Leader killedAli Khamenei (February 2026) [1][2]
Successor selectedMojtaba Khamenei (early March 2026) [1][2]
Leadership change probability23-36% by June 30, 2027 [3]
A significant regional military escalation in February 2026, involving the United States and Israel, resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [1][2]. Following this event, the Assembly of Experts selected his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as his successor in early March 2026 [1][2].
The killing of Ali Khamenei created a power vacuum and heightened instability within Iran's security and military apparatus, prompting concerns about potential factional divisions [4][5]. Under Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership, as of mid-August 2026, a notable shift has occurred toward collective hardline decision-making, accompanied by the appointment of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) veterans to prominent positions [3].
Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership faces significant future uncertainty. As of September 1, 2026, prediction markets are monitoring the stability of Mojtaba Khamenei's leadership, indicating a 23-36% probability of a leadership change before June 30, 2027 [3]. This projected uncertainty stems from concerns regarding his health, the potential for incapacitation, and persistent internal pressures [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Conflict With Iran | Global Conflict Trackercfr.org
  2. 2How Mojtaba Khamenei Became the Supreme Leaderirananalytica.org
  3. 3Iran leadership change by...? Predictions & Odds 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  4. 4The US-Israel War on Iran: Analyses and Perspectivesarabcenterdc.org
  5. 5What's next for Iran's leadership and attacks in the region?acleddata.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father Ali Khamenei as Iran's Supreme Leader in March 2026 [1][2][3][4], has remained unseen and unheard in public for six months following injuries sustained in a February 2026 airstrike [5][6][7][8][9]. This public absence fuels widespread rumors concerning his health and whether he remains alive or capable of ruling [5][6][7][8][9]. Iranian officials maintain that Mojtaba Khamenei is alive, recovering from disfiguring wounds, and actively involved in decision-making from the shadows [5][7][8][10]. His continued public absence is attributed to significant security and assassination fears during the ongoing war [5][7][8][10]. As of September 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei is consolidating power amid ongoing domestic economic exhaustion, military degradation, and a volatile security situation resulting from the conflict initiated in February 2026 [1][11][4].
Prediction markets, including Polymarket, tracking a potential change in Iranian leadership currently assign approximately 25-39% probability to such a change by June 30, 2027 [12][13][14][15][16]. This range reflects high uncertainty and speculative pressure regarding the regime's stability [12][13][14][15][16].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Closes: July 01, 2027
Sources (16)
  1. 1U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  2. 2eval/STRESS_TEST_007_OSS_SWARMFISH_IRAN_BLINDNESS.mdgithub.com
  3. 3backend/scenario_background.mdgithub.com
  4. 4U.S. Conflict with Irancongress.gov
  5. 5Iran's disfigured supreme leader remains invisible six months into an existential war | Reutersreuters.com
  6. 6Iran's new supreme leader has severe and disfiguring...reuters.com
  7. 7Iranians call for ‘any sign’ supreme leader is alive 6 months into war | The Independentindependent.co.uk
  8. 8Is Mojtaba Khamenei Dead?theatlantic.com
  9. 9Healthy, Injured Or Missing? Questions Grow Around...iranwire.com
  10. 10Who is Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new supreme leader? | Reutersreuters.com
  11. 11cascades/november-2026-convergence.mdgithub.com
  12. 12https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-bypolymarket.com
  13. 13Iran leadership change Odds: Markets Put 39% on Yes | Live Oddspredictioncircle.com
  14. 14https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by?r=OddsShiftpolymarket.com
  15. 15Iran leadership change by...? — Odds & Predictions | PredScopepredscope.com
  16. 16Iran Leadership Change: Odds & Probabilitychanceindex.com