Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Iran Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (17)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
November 30
Market Model 6.0% 3.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 64.0% 55.0%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 16.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 14.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
Market Model 82.1% 80.2%
Mohammad Khatami
Market Model 0.2% 0.5%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 56.7%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.2% 4.2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 4.5%
US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 30.0% 26.1%
Before Dec 1, 2026
Market Model 22.0% 20.2%
Yes
Market Model 9.2% 5.3%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.8%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 12.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 14.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 15.0% | Med | 53 | Refresh |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Top outcome: December 31 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 63 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 2.7% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 64.0% | 55.0% | High | 56 | Refresh |
| Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 16.0% | 14.2% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 57 | Refresh |
| Iran leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Mojtaba Khamenei | 82.1% | 80.2% | High | 53 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 8.0% | 4.6% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes refers to: Yes | 60.0% | 56.7% | Med | 66 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 4.2% | 4.2% | Med | 48 | Refresh |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 4.5% | High | 56 | Refresh |
| US-Iran nuclear deal? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 30.0% | 26.1% | High | 77 | Refresh |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.2% | 5.3% | High | 76 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 14.0% | 9.8% | Med | 78 | Refresh |
| Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 12.0% | 12.0% | Med | 76 | Refresh |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 14.0% | 14.0% | Med | 73 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (11)
Yes
Market Model — —
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 23.9%
Yes
Market Model — —
December 31
Market Model 67.0% 99.5%
November 30
Market Model 70.0% 99.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 80 | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 43.0% | 23.9% | High | 63 | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Top outcome: December 31 | 67.0% | 99.5% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — |
