Before July
Market Model 2.0% 1.1%
Before August
Market Model 7.5% 4.3%
Iran Markets
Active Markets (7)
Yes
Market Model 82.0% 72.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 9.2% 5.3%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 3.0% 1.7%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.8%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 12.0%
Reza Pahlavi
Market Model 2.3% 0.8%
JD Vance
Market Model 3.2% 1.1%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 14.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal? Top outcome: Before July | 2.0% | 1.1% | High | $14,100,979.96 | Refresh |
| When will the full text of the US-Iran MoU be officially released? Yes refers to: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 82.0% | 72.7% | High | $6,370.11 | Refresh |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.2% | 5.3% | High | $1,126,742.15 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 14.0% | 9.8% | Med | $1,249,003.47 | Refresh |
| Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 12.0% | 12.0% | Med | $885,303.16 | Refresh |
| Who will visit Iran before July? Top outcome: Reza Pahlavi | 2.3% | 0.8% | Med | $450,812.3 | Refresh |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 14.0% | 14.0% | Med | $99,583.85 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (3)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $4,336.02 | ||
| — | — | High | $127,193.33 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,861.94 |
