Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 8.1%
August 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.2%
Iran Markets
Active Markets (8)
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 4.6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 9.0% 4.5%
September 30
Market Model 3.8% 1.9%
US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 2.4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 30.0% 26.1%
Yes
Market Model 9.2% 5.3%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.8%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 12.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 14.0%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 14.0% | 8.1% | High | $22,427,857.81 | Refresh |
| Israel closes its airspace by...? Yes refers to: August 15 | 9.0% | 4.6% | High | $26,468,472.55 | Refresh |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 9.0% | 4.5% | High | $29,033,085.4 | Refresh |
| US-Iran nuclear deal? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 6.0% | 2.4% | High | $15,536,169.87 | Refresh |
| Will Donald Trump visit Iran? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.2% | 5.3% | High | $1,126,742.15 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi visit Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 14.0% | 9.8% | Med | $1,249,003.47 | Refresh |
| Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 12.0% | 12.0% | Med | $885,303.16 | Refresh |
| Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 14.0% | 14.0% | Med | $99,583.85 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (5)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $6,370.11 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,336.02 | ||
| — | — | Med | $450,812.3 | ||
| — | — | High | $127,193.33 | ||
| — | — | High | $4,861.94 |
