Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Iran Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (17)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
September 30
Market Model 0.8% 0.4%
December 31
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
October 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Polymarket
September 30
Market Model 21.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 64.0% 55.0%
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 16.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 14.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
Market Model 82.1% 80.2%
Mohammad Khatami
Market Model 0.2% 0.5%
September 30
Market Model 2.1% 1.2%
December 31
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 56.7%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.2% 4.2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 4.0% 4.5%
September 30
Market Model 1.1% 1.9%
US-Iran nuclear deal? Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 30.0% 26.1%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 11.0% 6.9%
Yes
Market Model 9.2% 5.3%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 9.8%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 12.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 14.0%
Expired Markets (11)
Yes
Market Model — —
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 6.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 23.9%
Yes
Market Model — —
September 30
Market Model 88.0% 99.5%
October 31
Market Model 77.0% 99.5%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | 80 | ||
| Israel closes its airspace by...? Yes refers to: September 30 | 6.0% | 3.5% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 43.0% | 23.9% | High | 63 | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Top outcome: September 30 | 88.0% | 99.5% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — |
