Yes
Market Model 10.0% 6.4%
Congress Markets
Active Markets (32)
Yes
Market Model 29.0% 21.5%
54
Market Model 4.1% 3.0%
52
Market Model 12.7% 11.7%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Polymarket
Democratic Party
Market Model 46.0% 41.6%
Republican Party
Market Model 55.0% 58.4%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 6.0% 3.6%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 25.0% 15.4%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 49.0% 36.9%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 7.0% 4.0%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 10.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.9% 6.9%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 17.0% 17.2%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 34.0% 32.9%
0
Market Model 12.0% 15.3%
2
Market Model 16.0% 13.2%
Yes
Market Model 46.0% 29.2%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 17.2%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 8.4%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
Mandatory body-worn cameras
Market Model 9.9% 6.0%
Visible identification
Market Model 9.0% 3.6%
Yes
Market Model 49.0% 49.0%
FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
Market Model 11.0% 3.6%
SHOWER Act
Market Model 23.0% 12.2%
Yes
Market Model 5.8% 2.6%
Before Nov 3, 2026
Market Model 44.0% 22.5%
Before Oct 1, 2026
Market Model 0.0% 17.5%
Yes
Market Model 9.1% 5.8%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 10.0%
Yes
Market Model 3.0% 0.0%
Yes
Market Model 8.3% 5.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 31.0% 30.2%
Before 2028
Market Model 47.0% 44.8%
Yes
Market Model 26.0% 32.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 13.0% 8.7%
Before Jan 21, 2029
Market Model 59.0% 44.2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 76.0% 66.6%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 53.0% 42.5%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 16.2%
Ghislaine Maxwell
Market Model 19.0% 6.5%
Mark Zuckerberg
Market Model 40.0% 27.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 13.9%
Before January 20, 2029
Market Model 35.0% 27.1%
Nancy Pelosi
Market Model 4.0% 15.1%
Larry Bucshon
Market Model 5.0% 12.6%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 38.0% 15.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? Yes refers to: Before election day 2026 | 10.0% | 6.4% | Med | $1,778,668.54 | Refresh |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Yes refers to: Yes | 29.0% | 21.5% | Med | $1,048,994.18 | Refresh |
| Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Top outcome: 54 | 4.1% | 3.0% | High | $2,789,166.08 | Refresh |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Top outcome: Democratic Party | 46.0% | 41.6% | High | $3,754,539.68 | Refresh |
| When will Todd Blanche be confirmed? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 6.0% | 3.6% | High | $87,652.79 | Refresh |
| Will crypto market structure legislation become law? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 49.0% | 36.9% | High | $2,458,180.42 | Refresh |
| Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14.0% | 10.8% | High | $2,314,692.22 | Refresh |
| Will the SAVE Act become law? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027 | 8.9% | 6.9% | Med | $5,723,984.36 | Refresh |
| Will Congressional salaries increase? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 17.0% | 17.2% | High | $27 | Refresh |
| How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026? Top outcome: 0 | 12.0% | 15.3% | High | $92,101.92 | Refresh |
| Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Cory Mills? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 46.0% | 29.2% | Med | $1,570 | Refresh |
| Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 15.0% | 17.2% | Med | $548.45 | Refresh |
| Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027 | 9.0% | 8.4% | Med | $8,744.01 | Refresh |
| Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027 | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | $1,958.96 | Refresh |
| Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? Top outcome: Mandatory body-worn cameras | 9.9% | 6.0% | Med | $44,125.96 | Refresh |
| Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 49.0% | 49.0% | Med | $9,540.74 | Refresh |
| Which bills will become law in 2026? Top outcome: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) | 11.0% | 3.6% | Med | $223,403.72 | Refresh |
| Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.8% | 2.6% | Med | $37,777.71 | Refresh |
| When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act? Top outcome: Before Nov 3, 2026 | 44.0% | 22.5% | High | $49,454.35 | Refresh |
| US bans social media for children in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 9.1% | 5.8% | Med | $15,544.81 | Refresh |
| Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 10.0% | 10.0% | Med | $56,293.56 | Refresh |
| When will Nick Adams be confirmed as Ambassador of Malaysia? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | 0.0% | High | $31,622 | Refresh |
| Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 8.3% | 5.6% | High | $420,547.72 | Refresh |
| Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 31.0% | 30.2% | High | $54,792.71 | Refresh |
| Will AI regulation become law in 2026? Yes refers to: By Jan 1, 2027 | 26.0% | 32.6% | Med | $36,710.6 | Refresh |
| Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 13.0% | 8.7% | High | $79,685.65 | Refresh |
| When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 76.0% | 66.6% | High | $8,476.21 | Refresh |
| Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed? Yes refers to: Before 2027 | 21.0% | 16.2% | High | $706,222.22 | Refresh |
| Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026? Top outcome: Ghislaine Maxwell | 19.0% | 6.5% | Med | $85,653.6 | Refresh |
| Will the filibuster be weakened? Top outcome: Before 2027 | 18.0% | 13.9% | High | $32,566.83 | Refresh |
| Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? Top outcome: Nancy Pelosi | 4.0% | 15.1% | Med | $8,017 | Refresh |
| Will Congress override Trump's veto? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 38.0% | 15.3% | High | $98,074 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (21)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 99.5% 99.4%
Yes
Market Model 89.0% 83.4%
Ballroom security funding
Market Model 2.0% 0.7%
Funding for ICE/CBP lasting ≥3 years
Market Model 94.0% 92.1%
Thom Tillis
Market Model 79.0% 72.4%
Susan Collins
Market Model 82.0% 71.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Judy Shelton
Market Model 0.3% 2.0%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 99.5% 95.0%
At least 90 days
Market Model 34.0% 19.3%
At least 75 days
Market Model 99.9% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Rand Paul
Market Model 69.0% 59.7%
John Fetterman
Market Model 98.0% 97.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
At least 30 days
Market Model 80.0% 80.2%
At least 90 days
Market Model 75.0% 75.4%
Yes
Market Model 92.6% 77.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $30,752.92 | ||
| When will ICE removal operations be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 99.5% | 99.4% | High | $141,149.64 | |
| When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 89.0% | 83.4% | High | $528,094.54 | |
| What will be in the next reconciliation bill? Top outcome: Ballroom security funding | 2.0% | 0.7% | Med | $40,903.21 | |
| Who will vote for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate? Top outcome: Thom Tillis | 79.0% | 72.4% | Med | $30,147.32 | |
| — | — | High | $1,365,157.04 | ||
| — | — | Med | $149,552.25 | ||
| — | — | High | $616,936.11 | ||
| — | — | High | $2,711,534.57 | ||
| Who will be confirmed as Fed chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 0.3% | 2.0% | High | $6,881,888.2 | |
| How long will the government shutdown last? Top outcome: At least 90 days | 34.0% | 19.3% | High | $19,826,631.06 | |
| — | — | High | $16,164.99 | ||
| — | — | Med | $26,276.57 | ||
| — | — | Med | $51,053.08 | ||
| Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair? Top outcome: Rand Paul | 69.0% | 59.7% | Med | $127,505.74 | |
| — | — | High | $72,912.66 | ||
| — | — | Med | $245,669.08 | ||
| — | — | Med | $81,678.33 | ||
| How long will the next FISA authorization be? Top outcome: At least 30 days | 80.0% | 80.2% | High | $41,980.89 | |
| When will DHS be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 92.6% | 77.0% | High | $14,355,230.22 | |
| — | — | Med | $96,233.28 |
