Congress Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (30)

When will Wesley Hunt be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia? Kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Market Model 12.0% 6.9%

Before Mar 1, 2027

Market Model 84.0% 73.7%

2.2K contracts Refresh

Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law? Kalshi

On Dec 10, 2026

Market Model 76.0% 53.3%

On Nov 13, 2026

Market Model 57.0% 53.3%

13.5K contracts Refresh

Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 6.4%

1.8M contracts Refresh

Will crypto market structure legislation become law? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 49.0% 36.9%

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 47.0% 33.5%

2.5M contracts Refresh

Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 14.0% 10.8%

2.3M contracts Refresh

Will the SAVE Act become law? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 8.9% 6.9%

5.7M contracts Refresh

Will Congressional salaries increase? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 17.0% 17.2%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 34.0% 32.9%

27 contracts Refresh

How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026? Kalshi

Market Model 12.0% 15.3%

Market Model 16.0% 13.2%

92.1K contracts Refresh

Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Cory Mills? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 46.0% 29.2%

1.6K contracts Refresh

Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 17.2%

548 contracts Refresh

Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 8.4%

8.7K contracts Refresh

Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 17.0%

2.0K contracts Refresh

Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? Kalshi

Mandatory body-worn cameras

Market Model 9.9% 6.0%

Visible identification

Market Model 9.0% 3.6%

44.1K contracts Refresh

Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 49.0% 49.0%

9.5K contracts Refresh

Which bills will become law in 2026? Kalshi

FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)

Market Model 11.0% 3.6%

SHOWER Act

Market Model 23.0% 12.2%

223.4K contracts Refresh

Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 5.8% 2.6%

37.8K contracts Refresh

When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act? Kalshi

Before Nov 3, 2026

Market Model 44.0% 22.5%

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 0.0% 17.5%

49.5K contracts Refresh

US bans social media for children in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.1% 5.8%

15.5K contracts Refresh

Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 10.0%

56.3K contracts Refresh

When will Nick Adams be confirmed as Ambassador of Malaysia? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 3.0% 0.0%

31.6K contracts Refresh

Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 8.3% 5.6%

420.5K contracts Refresh

Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 31.0% 30.2%

Before 2028

Market Model 47.0% 44.8%

54.8K contracts Refresh

Will AI regulation become law in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 26.0% 32.6%

36.7K contracts Refresh

Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 13.0% 8.7%

Before Jan 21, 2029

Market Model 59.0% 44.2%

79.7K contracts Refresh

When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 76.0% 66.6%

8.5K contracts Refresh

Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 21.0% 16.2%

706.2K contracts Refresh

Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026? Kalshi

Ghislaine Maxwell

Market Model 19.0% 6.5%

Mark Zuckerberg

Market Model 40.0% 27.0%

85.7K contracts Refresh

Will the filibuster be weakened? Kalshi

Before 2027

Market Model 18.0% 13.9%

Before January 20, 2029

Market Model 35.0% 27.1%

32.6K contracts Refresh

Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? Kalshi

Nancy Pelosi

Market Model 4.0% 15.1%

Larry Bucshon

Market Model 5.0% 12.6%

8.0K contracts Refresh

Will Congress override Trump's veto? Kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029

Market Model 38.0% 15.3%

Before 2027

Market Model 12.0% 4.2%

98.1K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
When will Wesley Hunt be confirmed as U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia? Top outcome: Before Dec 1, 2026	12.0%	6.9%	High	56	Refresh
Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law? Top outcome: On Dec 10, 2026	76.0%	53.3%	High	60	Refresh
Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms? Yes refers to: Before election day 2026	10.0%	6.4%	Med	40	Refresh
Will crypto market structure legislation become law? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	49.0%	36.9%	High	77	Refresh
Will proof of citizenship be required for federal voter registration? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	14.0%	10.8%	High	69	Refresh
Will the SAVE Act become law? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027	8.9%	6.9%	Med	76	Refresh
Will Congressional salaries increase? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	17.0%	17.2%	High	58	Refresh
How many reconciliation bills will be passed in 2026? Top outcome: 0	12.0%	15.3%	High	75	Refresh
Will the House vote on a resolution to expel Cory Mills? Yes refers to: Before Nov 3, 2026	46.0%	29.2%	Med	70	Refresh
Will the Kids Online Safety Act become law? Yes refers to: Before 2027	15.0%	17.2%	Med	74	Refresh
Will Trump establish nationwide concealed carry? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027	9.0%	8.4%	Med	78	Refresh
Will a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law? Yes refers to: Before Jan 4, 2027	17.0%	17.0%	Med	71	Refresh
Which ICE reforms will become law in 2026? Top outcome: Mandatory body-worn cameras	9.9%	6.0%	Med	69	Refresh
Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	49.0%	49.0%	Med	73	Refresh
Which bills will become law in 2026? Top outcome: FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)	11.0%	3.6%	Med	71	Refresh
Will Trump create a $250 bill featuring himself? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	5.8%	2.6%	Med	73	Refresh
When will the Senate vote on the SAVE America Act? Top outcome: Before Nov 3, 2026	44.0%	22.5%	High	72	Refresh
US bans social media for children in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	9.1%	5.8%	Med	69	Refresh
Will Trump eliminate capital gains taxes on crypto? Yes refers to: Before 2027	10.0%	10.0%	Med	73	Refresh
When will Nick Adams be confirmed as Ambassador of Malaysia? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	3.0%	0.0%	High	57	Refresh
Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended? Yes refers to: Before 2027	8.3%	5.6%	High	75	Refresh
Will a GOP member of Congress call for Trump's impeachment? Top outcome: Before 2027	31.0%	30.2%	High	71	Refresh
Will AI regulation become law in 2026? Yes refers to: By Jan 1, 2027	26.0%	32.6%	Med	75	Refresh
Will members of Congress be banned from trading stocks? Top outcome: Before 2027	13.0%	8.7%	High	76	Refresh
When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	76.0%	66.6%	High	78	Refresh
Will the cap on gambling loss reduction be repealed? Yes refers to: Before 2027	21.0%	16.2%	High	74	Refresh
Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026? Top outcome: Ghislaine Maxwell	19.0%	6.5%	Med	67	Refresh
Will the filibuster be weakened? Top outcome: Before 2027	18.0%	13.9%	High	76	Refresh
Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025? Top outcome: Nancy Pelosi	4.0%	15.1%	Med	75	Refresh
Will Congress override Trump's veto? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029	38.0%	15.3%	High	69	Refresh

Expired Markets (22)

When will Todd Blanche be confirmed? Kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

Market Model 25.0% 15.4%

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 35.0% 27.1%

87.7K contracts

When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

30.8K contracts

When will ICE removal operations be funded again? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 99.5% 99.4%

141.1K contracts

When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 89.0% 83.4%

528.1K contracts

What will be in the next reconciliation bill? Kalshi

Ballroom security funding

Market Model 2.0% 0.7%

Funding for ICE/CBP lasting ≥3 years

Market Model 94.0% 92.1%

40.9K contracts

Who will vote for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate? Kalshi

Thom Tillis

Market Model 79.0% 72.4%

Susan Collins

Market Model 82.0% 71.1%

30.1K contracts

When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

1.4M contracts

Who will leave Congress before July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

149.6K contracts

How many House votes to expel Eric Swalwell? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

616.9K contracts

When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.7M contracts

Who will be confirmed as Fed chair? Kalshi

Judy Shelton

Market Model 0.3% 2.0%

Kevin Warsh

Market Model 99.5% 95.0%

6.9M contracts

How long will the government shutdown last? Kalshi

At least 90 days

Market Model 34.0% 19.3%

At least 75 days

Market Model 99.9% 100.0%

19.8M contracts

Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

16.2K contracts

Will Pam Bondi testify in front of Congress in Apr 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

26.3K contracts

Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

51.1K contracts

Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair? Kalshi

Rand Paul

Market Model 69.0% 59.7%

John Fetterman

Market Model 98.0% 97.4%

127.5K contracts

When will FISA be reauthorized again? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

72.9K contracts

Which Senators will vote to advance the SAVE America Act? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

245.7K contracts

Who will be confirmed by the Senate before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

81.7K contracts

How long will the next FISA authorization be? Kalshi

At least 30 days

Market Model 80.0% 80.2%

At least 90 days

Market Model 75.0% 75.4%

42.0K contracts

When will DHS be funded again? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 92.6% 77.0%

14.4M contracts

Which DHS components will receive more funding before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

96.2K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
When will Todd Blanche be confirmed? Top outcome: Before Oct 1, 2026	25.0%	15.4%	High	—
When will Jay Clayton be confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?	—	—	High	—
When will ICE removal operations be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	99.5%	99.4%	High	—
When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	89.0%	83.4%	High	—
What will be in the next reconciliation bill? Top outcome: Ballroom security funding	2.0%	0.7%	Med	—
Who will vote for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate? Top outcome: Thom Tillis	79.0%	72.4%	Med	—
When will a reconciliation bill pass the Senate?	—	—	High	—
Who will leave Congress before July?	—	—	Med	—
How many House votes to expel Eric Swalwell?	—	—	High	—
When will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	—	—	High	—
Who will be confirmed as Fed chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton	0.3%	2.0%	High	—
How long will the government shutdown last? Top outcome: At least 90 days	34.0%	19.3%	High	—
Will any GOP member of Congress call for the 25th Amendment on Trump?	—	—	High	—
Will Pam Bondi testify in front of Congress in Apr 2026?	—	—	Med	—
Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?	—	—	Med	—
Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair? Top outcome: Rand Paul	69.0%	59.7%	Med	—
When will FISA be reauthorized again?	—	—	High	—
Which Senators will vote to advance the SAVE America Act?	—	—	Med	—
Who will be confirmed by the Senate before May?	—	—	Med	—
How long will the next FISA authorization be? Top outcome: At least 30 days	80.0%	80.2%	High	—
When will DHS be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	92.6%	77.0%	High	—
Which DHS components will receive more funding before May?	—	—	Med	—

Congress Markets

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