Yes
Market Model 59.0% 64.7%
Congress Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (27)
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 31.0% 16.3%
Before Jul 1, 2027
Market Model 84.0% 70.4%
Exactly 1
Market Model 87.0% 86.1%
Exactly 2
Market Model 8.5% 7.4%
Before Dec 1, 2026
Market Model 12.0% 6.9%
Before Mar 1, 2027
Market Model 84.0% 73.7%
On Dec 10, 2026
Market Model 76.0% 53.3%
On Nov 13, 2026
Market Model 57.0% 53.3%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 49.0% 36.9%
Before Oct 1, 2027
Market Model 67.0% 52.5%
Yes
Market Model 14.0% 10.8%
Yes
Market Model 8.9% 6.9%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 17.0% 17.2%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 34.0% 32.9%
0
Market Model 12.0% 15.3%
2
Market Model 16.0% 13.2%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 17.2%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 8.4%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
Mandatory body-worn cameras
Market Model 9.9% 6.0%
Visible identification
Market Model 9.0% 3.6%
FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
Market Model 11.0% 3.6%
SHOWER Act
Market Model 23.0% 12.2%
Yes
Market Model 5.8% 2.6%
Yes
Market Model 9.1% 5.8%
Yes
Market Model 10.0% 10.0%
Yes
Market Model 8.3% 5.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 31.0% 30.2%
Before 2028
Market Model 47.0% 44.8%
Yes
Market Model 26.0% 32.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 13.0% 8.7%
Before Jan 21, 2029
Market Model 59.0% 44.2%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 16.2%
Ghislaine Maxwell
Market Model 19.0% 6.5%
Mark Zuckerberg
Market Model 40.0% 27.0%
Before 2027
Market Model 18.0% 13.9%
Before January 20, 2029
Market Model 35.0% 27.1%
Nancy Pelosi
Market Model 4.0% 15.1%
Larry Bucshon
Market Model 5.0% 12.6%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 38.0% 15.3%
Before 2027
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Expired Markets (28)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 35.0% 27.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 99.5% 99.4%
Yes
Market Model 89.0% 83.4%
Ballroom security funding
Market Model 2.0% 0.7%
Funding for ICE/CBP lasting ≥3 years
Market Model 94.0% 92.1%
Thom Tillis
Market Model 79.0% 72.4%
Susan Collins
Market Model 82.0% 71.1%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 49.0% 49.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Judy Shelton
Market Model 0.3% 2.0%
Kevin Warsh
Market Model 99.5% 95.0%
Yes
Market Model 3.0% 0.0%
At least 90 days
Market Model 34.0% 19.3%
At least 75 days
Market Model 99.9% 100.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model 76.0% 66.6%
Yes
Market Model — —
Rand Paul
Market Model 69.0% 59.7%
John Fetterman
Market Model 98.0% 97.4%
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
At least 30 days
Market Model 80.0% 80.2%
At least 90 days
Market Model 75.0% 75.4%
Yes
Market Model 92.6% 77.0%
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| When will Todd Blanche be confirmed? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 35.0% | 27.1% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| When will ICE removal operations be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 99.5% | 99.4% | High | — | |
| When will the House pass a reconciliation bill? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 89.0% | 83.4% | High | — | |
| What will be in the next reconciliation bill? Top outcome: Ballroom security funding | 2.0% | 0.7% | Med | — | |
| Who will vote for the next budget reconciliation bill in the Senate? Top outcome: Thom Tillis | 79.0% | 72.4% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Will the US ban CBDC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 49.0% | 49.0% | Med | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Who will be confirmed as Fed chair? Top outcome: Judy Shelton | 0.3% | 2.0% | High | — | |
| When will Nick Adams be confirmed as Ambassador of Malaysia? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3.0% | 0.0% | High | — | |
| How long will the government shutdown last? Top outcome: At least 90 days | 34.0% | 19.3% | High | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| When will Trump's Labor Secretary pick be confirmed? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 76.0% | 66.6% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| Which Senators will vote for Kevin Warsh as Fed chair? Top outcome: Rand Paul | 69.0% | 59.7% | Med | — | |
| — | — | High | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| — | — | Med | — | ||
| How long will the next FISA authorization be? Top outcome: At least 30 days | 80.0% | 80.2% | High | — | |
| When will DHS be funded again? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 92.6% | 77.0% | High | — | |
| — | — | Med | — |
