Short Answer

The model assigns meaningfully lower odds than the market for the House voting on a resolution to expel Cory Mills before Nov 3, 2026, with the model at 29.2% versus the market at 46.0%. This divergence is driven by the expectation that House leadership likely prefers delaying a vote until the ongoing, complex Ethics Committee investigation concludes.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This prediction market has exhibited a completely flat and inactive trend since its inception. The probability of a House vote on a resolution to expel Cory Mills has remained static at 4.0%, showing no price movement whatsoever. The market opened after Representative Nancy Mace is reported to have introduced H.Res. 1193 on April 20, 2026, but this event did not trigger any trading activity or price adjustments. The price of 4.0% serves as the only support and resistance level, a consequence of total market inactivity rather than established trading patterns.
The most significant technical factor is the complete absence of trading volume. With zero contracts traded, the chart indicates a profound lack of market participation and conviction. This suggests that traders are either uninterested in the market or that the initial 4.0% price is perceived as a price point with no compelling reason to take a long or short position. Consequently, the market sentiment cannot be gauged from trader behavior, as there has been none. The current price merely reflects an initial assessment that has gone unchallenged by any market activity.
  • House leadership prefers delaying a vote until the Ethics investigation concludes.
  • Representative Mace has not yet utilized procedural options to force a vote.
  • Public evidence supports allegations of misconduct against Representative Mills.
  • The House Ethics Committee lacks a fixed timeline for complex investigations.
  • Speaker Johnson's leadership is delaying a vote due to a narrow Republican majority.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before Nov 3, 2026 46.0% 29.2% A vote is expected to be delayed by leadership until the ongoing Ethics Committee investigation concludes.

Current Context

Representative Nancy Mace introduced a resolution to expel Cory Mills. On April 20, 2026, Representative Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) introduced H.Res. 1193, a resolution seeking to expel Representative Cory Mills (R-Fla.) from the House of Representatives [1][2][3]. The resolution cites allegations of sexual misconduct, campaign finance violations, and misrepresentation of his military service [1][2][3]. As of May 23, 2026, the resolution has been referred to the House Committee on Ethics and has not yet been brought to the House floor for a vote, with Rep. Mace not having utilized her procedural authority to force such a vote [1][3][4].
The House Ethics Committee is actively investigating the allegations against Mills. The committee is conducting an ongoing, bipartisan investigation into the allegations [1][5][6]. House leadership, including Speaker Mike Johnson, has indicated a preference for the committee's due process to conclude before considering disciplinary actions like expulsion [1][5][6].
Representative Mills denies misconduct and questions the expulsion effort's viability. He has denied all allegations of wrongdoing [5][3][7]. Mills also expresses confidence that the expulsion resolution lacks the necessary support to pass and has reportedly considered introducing his own expulsion resolution against Representative Mace [5][3][7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Nancy Mace introduces resolution to expel Republican Cory Mills from Congressnbcnews.com
  2. 2Cory Mills Faces Calls for Expulsion From Congress: What to Knowtime.com
  3. 3Rep Nancy Mace files motion to expel Rep Cory Mills from Congress | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  4. 4Rep. Nancy Mace on Rep. Cory Mills Expulsion Effort | Video | C-SPAN.orgc-span.org
  5. 5House Ethics calls allegations against Cory Mills "serious and complex"axios.com
  6. 6Ethics Committee intensifies probe of alleged sexual misconduct, financial misdeeds by Cory Millswashingtontimes.com
  7. 7Cory Mills breaks silence on scandals, ethics probe and political survivalfloridapolitics.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This market resolves to YES if the U.S. House of Representatives conducts any qualifying recorded vote on a resolution to expel Representative Cory Mills (R-FL) before November 3, 2026. It resolves to NO if no such recorded vote occurs by the November 3, 2026, 10:00 AM EST deadline, when the market automatically closes. Specific vote types, such as roll call and final passage votes, are defined as qualifying, while others like voice votes are not, and the market closes early if the YES condition is met, with insider trading prohibited.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before Nov 3, 2026 $0.49 $0.57 46%

Market Discussion

Representative Nancy Mace has introduced a resolution to expel Representative Cory Mills from Congress, citing allegations of sexual misconduct, domestic violence, and profiting from federal contracts, which are currently being investigated by the House Ethics Committee [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. However, Republican leadership has not indicated an intention to schedule a floor vote, and expulsion requires a challenging two-thirds majority [9][6][10]. The situation is further complicated by Mills drafting a counter-expulsion resolution against Mace, highlighting a "tit-for-tat" dynamic and impacting prediction market probabilities for his departure [9][7][2].

Sources (10)
  1. 1time.com
  2. 2newrepublic.com
  3. 3youtube.com
  4. 4house.govmace.house.gov
  5. 5kgw.com
  6. 6kalshi.comnews.kalshi.com
  7. 7notus.org
  8. 8youtube.com
  9. 9lines.com
  10. 10notus.org

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 70 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score82Good
Trade quality20% of score24Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score70Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
77Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
31Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

1 contract · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Nov 3, 202631
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
71Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

1 contract · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Nov 3, 202671
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract · 1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Nov 3, 2026100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
24Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 31 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 20.7c slippage (~259% of a 8c contract)

$1,000 order: 42.3c slippage (~529% of a 8c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

1 settled or closed — not scored

Before Nov 3, 202631Market scoreLiquidity31Move quality71Rule clarity100
Why 31
Liquidity
31 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
71 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume is light/neutral for the move over 3d

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What procedural actions by Rep. Mace or findings from the House Ethics Committee could compel a floor vote on the Mills expulsion resolution before the 2026 midterm elections?

Resolution Introduction DateApril 20, 2026 (H.Res. 1193) [1][2][3]
Expulsion Vote RequirementTwo-thirds majority vote [4][5]
Ethics Committee RequirementNot legally required for floor vote [1][2][3][4][5][6]
Rep. Nancy Mace introduced an expulsion resolution against Rep. Cory Mills. On April 20, 2026, Rep. Mace introduced H.Res. 1193, proposing the expulsion of Rep. Cory Mills, which has been referred to the House Committee on Ethics [1][2][3]. Despite this referral, a formal investigation or recommendation from the Ethics Committee is not a legal prerequisite for the resolution to proceed to a floor vote [1][2][3][4][5][6].
A floor vote could be compelled by Rep. Mace using a procedural tool. She could utilize a privileged resolution, a mechanism she has previously employed for actions such as censure motions [1][7][8]. However, Rep. Mace has not indicated any plans to use this specific procedure for the current expulsion resolution, and House leadership has expressed opposition to such a move [1]. The U.S. Constitution grants the House the power to expel a member, requiring a two-thirds majority vote [4][5]. This constitutional authority means that specific findings from the House Ethics Committee are not legally necessary to compel an expulsion floor vote [4][5][6].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Nancy Mace introduces resolution to expel Republican Cory Mills from Congressnbcnews.com
  2. 2Text of H.Res. 1193: Providing for the expulsion of Representative Cory Mills from the United States House of … (Introduced version) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  3. 3Providing for the expulsion of Representative Cory Mills from the United States House of Representatives. (H.Res. 1193) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  4. 4Overview of Expulsion Clause | Constitution Annotated | Congress.gov | Library of Congressconstitution.congress.gov
  5. 5Congress must use this moment to finally establish a clear standard for expulsion - CREW | Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washingtoncitizensforethics.org
  6. 6Altering House Ethics Committee Sanction Recommendations on...congress.gov
  7. 7Rep. Nancy Mace to force a vote on releasing Congress members' sexual misconduct reports - AOLaol.com
  8. 8Rep. Nancy Mace To Offer Privileged Resolution To Censure Cory Mills And Remove Him From National Security Committees | Representative Nancy Macemace.house.gov

6. What public evidence exists to support the specific allegations of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations against Rep. Mills as outlined in H.Res. 1193?

Dating violence findingJudge found 'dating violence' via cyberstalking [1][2][3][4][5]
Questioned campaign funding$1.8 million used for campaign funding questioned [6][7]
Campaign luxury spendingNearly $80,000 on luxury expenses [8]
Public evidence supports allegations of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations against Rep. Mills. One individual alleged that Mills threatened to release sexually explicit images of her and persisted in unwanted contact, leading a judge to find he had engaged in 'dating violence' through cyberstalking [1][2][3][4][5]. An alleged assault involving another woman near Mills' Washington D.C. property was investigated by police in February 2025, though no charges were filed as the woman reportedly recanted her initial story [2][9][4]. These allegations of sexual misconduct and/or dating violence are part of an investigation initiated by the House Ethics Committee in November 2025 [2][3][5].
Financial and campaign finance violations are also under investigation. The Office of Congressional Conduct recommended further review of financial and contracting allegations, determining there was 'substantial reason to believe' Mills may have violated House rules and federal law [1][6][7]. A May 2025 report from this office indicated Mills might have failed to disclose or misrepresented information in his financial statements, raising questions about $1.8 million used to fund his campaign in 2021 and 2022, and suggesting his campaign committee may have accepted excessive or impermissible in-kind contributions [6][7]. He is also under investigation for potentially violating federal laws and House rules that prohibit members from holding government contracts, due to his ownership in Pacem Defense and related businesses [6][7].
Further financial scrutiny details spending and current ethics committee focus. His re-election campaign spent nearly $80,000 on luxury expenses between February 2023 and December 2024, and he reportedly billed taxpayers over $15,000 for lodging and meal expenses for a D.C. residence [8]. The House Ethics Committee's November 2025 investigation specifically examines whether Mills failed to disclose required information, violated campaign finance laws during his 2022 and 2024 campaigns, or improperly solicited or received gifts [2][3]. Rep. Mills has consistently denied any wrongdoing in response to these allegations [2][9]. While H.Res. 1193 mentions disputed claims about military service, the provided research does not include specific public evidence to support this particular allegation [1].
Sources (9)
  1. 1poliscore.us
  2. 2newsweek.com
  3. 3wusf.org
  4. 4motherjones.com
  5. 5time.com
  6. 6businessinsider.com
  7. 7house.govconduct.house.gov
  8. 8washingtonexaminer.com
  9. 9floridapolitics.com

7. How do the allegations against Rep. Mills compare to the circumstances that led to the expulsion of Rep. George Santos in 2023?

George Santos Expulsion Vote311–114 on December 1, 2023 (H.Res. 878) [1][2]
Cory Mills AllegationsSexual misconduct and/or dating violence, and campaign finance violations [3]
Mills Linked ContractsClose to $1 million in federal munitions/weapons contracts (January 2023 to July/August 2024) [4]
Allegations against Rep. Mills share similarities but key differences with George Santos's expulsion. Both cases involve serious House Ethics-linked misconduct allegations that could potentially warrant an expulsion vote [1][3][4]. A key distinction, however, is that Rep. George Santos's expulsion occurred after an already completed House Ethics Committee report and a federal criminal indictment, whereas Rep. Cory Mills is currently amid an Ethics Committee investigation [1][3].
Rep. George Santos faced expulsion after a detailed ethics report and indictment. He was expelled from Congress in 2023 following a scathing House Ethics Committee report and a federal indictment describing 23 counts [1]. The House vote on Santos’s expulsion was 311–114 on December 1, 2023, and was implemented through H.Res. 878 [1][2].
Rep. Mills faces an ongoing Ethics investigation into various misconduct allegations. For Rep. Cory Mills, a House Ethics Committee investigation is the trigger for current expulsion efforts, which include allegations of “sexual misconduct and/or dating violence” and campaign finance violations [3]. A July/August 2024 OCC report, summarized by TIME, indicated that Mills may have violated House rules and federal law, citing possible weapon-contract-related conduct involving approximately “close to $1 million” in federal munitions/weapons contracts from January 2023 to the report’s date [4]. Mills has denied wrongdoing and stated he has no plan to resign [3]. As of late April–May 2026 reporting, Mills remains amid an Ethics Committee investigation, with additional earlier OCC findings being cited in calls for his expulsion [3][4]. Traders on Kalshi have been pricing substantial odds that the House would vote on Mills’s expulsion before early November 2026 [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1House votes to expel indicted Rep. George Santos from Congressnbcnews.com
  2. 2Text - H.Res.878 - 118th Congress (2023-2024): Providing for the expulsion of Representative George Santos from the United States House of Representatives. | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  3. 3Rep. Cory Mills says he won't resign from Congress amid ethics probe into misconduct allegationsnbcnews.com
  4. 4Cory Mills Faces Calls for Expulsion From Congress: What to Knowtime.com
  5. 5Cory Mills expulsion odds surge after Nancy Mace resolutionnews.kalshi.com
  6. 6Kxvotemillsexpel 26aprkalshi.com

8. Based on historical data, what is the typical investigation timeline for the House Ethics Committee in cases it deems 'serious and complex'?

House Ethics Committee investigation timelineNo set timeline [1][2]
OCE preliminary review phaseLimited to 30 days [2][3][4]
OCE second-phase reviewUp to 45 days, with additional 14-day extension possible [2][3][4]
The House Ethics Committee lacks a fixed investigation timeline. Unlike the Office of Congressional Ethics, the Committee does not adhere to specific deadlines for its inquiries [1][2]. For cases identified as particularly serious and intricate, if an investigative subcommittee is established, there are no limitations placed on the duration or scope of the investigation [5]. This flexibility allows complex cases to remain in either the preliminary or full investigative phase for extended periods [2]. The actual time an investigation takes is influenced by various factors, including the specific subject under scrutiny and political considerations [1][2].
The Office of Congressional Ethics follows stricter, defined timelines. Investigations frequently originate with the OCE, which operates under more structured timeframes [2][3][4]. The initial preliminary review phase conducted by the OCE is capped at 30 days [2][3][4]. Following this, a subsequent second-phase review can extend for up to 45 days, with the provision for an additional 14-day extension if necessary [2][3][4]. Upon the conclusion of the OCE's review, its findings and recommendations are forwarded to the House Ethics Committee. The Committee then decides on the subsequent course of action, which may involve further investigation, imposing sanctions, or dismissing the matter entirely [3][4].
Sources (5)
  1. 1quora.com
  2. 2cbsnews.com
  3. 3house.govconduct.house.gov
  4. 4house.govconduct.house.gov
  5. 5cov.com

9. What is the political calculus for Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republican leadership in allowing or delaying a vote on the Mills resolution?

Expulsion ThresholdTwo-thirds constitutional majority (required to expel a member) [1]
Status of Mills ResolutionDelayed due to House Ethics Committee investigation [2][1]
House Republican MajorityNarrow [1]
Speaker Mike Johnson's leadership is delaying a vote on the Mills expulsion resolution. The primary reasons for this delay are the narrow Republican majority and the high two-thirds constitutional threshold required to expel a member [1]. Leadership is leveraging the ongoing House Ethics Committee investigation into Rep. Cory Mills as a strategic mechanism to postpone floor action. Both Speaker Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have expressed a preference for awaiting the investigation results rather than forcing a premature vote [2][1].
A contentious House environment further complicates any potential expulsion votes. The House is currently marked by an ongoing series of tit-for-tat expulsion threats among members [3][4][2]. An example of this is Rep. Cory Mills reportedly drafting a retaliatory resolution against Rep. Nancy Mace. This hostile atmosphere discourages leadership from facilitating floor votes that could exacerbate internal party conflicts and endanger their already narrow seat margin. Prediction markets reflect this uncertainty, with probability estimates shifting as these complex political maneuvers unfold [5][6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1House barrels toward rare double expulsion votesaxios.com
  2. 2Cory Mills Faces Calls for Expulsion From Congress: What to Knowtime.com
  3. 3Cory Mills Is Weighing an Expulsion Resolution Against Nancy Mace - NOTUS — News of the United Statesnotus.org
  4. 4'The worst kind of pond scum' Mace says of Mills' alleged expulsion resolution against herabcnews4.com
  5. 5Cory Mills out as US Rep by May 31?lines.com
  6. 6Will the House vote on a resolution to expel… | ElectionOddselectionodds.live

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The ongoing investigation by the House Ethics Committee into allegations against Representative Cory Mills, including sexual misconduct and domestic violence, represents a primary catalyst for potential market changes [1][2][3]. As of May 23, 2026, the committee has indicated the investigation is complex and ongoing, with a final report anticipated in several more weeks [1][2][3]. House leadership, including Speaker Mike Johnson, has prioritized allowing this investigation to conclude before considering punitive actions [4][5][3].
Representative Nancy Mace introduced H.Res. 1193 on April 20, 2026, to expel Representative Cory Mills from the U.S. House of Representatives [6][7][4][8]. However, this expulsion resolution is not currently privileged, meaning Mace has not forced an immediate floor vote [4][5][3]. Any potential expulsion vote faces a significant hurdle, as it requires a two-thirds majority in a narrowly divided House [5][3]. Both Republican leadership and some Democratic members have expressed hesitation to proceed with punitive actions without the findings from the Ethics Committee's investigation [5][3]. Therefore, a shift in Mace's strategy to force a vote or a change in the political will of House members following the Ethics Committee's report would be critical catalysts [4][5][3].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: June 01, 2026
  • Closes: November 03, 2026
Sources (8)
  1. 1House Ethics Committee still weeks from wrapping Cory Mills domestic violence probe | Courthouse News Servicecourthousenews.com
  2. 2Ethics Committee intensifies probe of alleged sexual misconduct, financial misdeeds by Cory Millswashingtontimes.com
  3. 3House Ethics calls allegations against Cory Mills "serious and complex"axios.com
  4. 4Rep Nancy Mace files motion to expel Rep Cory Mills from Congress | Fox Newsfoxnews.com
  5. 5House barrels toward rare double expulsion votesaxios.com
  6. 6Providing for the expulsion of Representative Cory Mills from the United States House of Representatives. (H.Res. 1193) - GovTrack.usgovtrack.us
  7. 7Rep. Nancy Mace Introduces Resolution To Expel Cory Mills From Congress | Representative Nancy Macemace.house.gov
  8. 8Nancy Mace introduces resolution to expel Republican Cory Mills from Congressnbcnews.com