US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
September 30
Market Model 0.8% 0.4%
Iran Ceasefire Markets
Active Markets (5)
December 31
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
October 31
Market Model 2.0% 1.0%
September 30
Market Model 2.1% 1.2%
December 31
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 56.7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 4.0% 4.5%
September 30
Market Model 1.1% 1.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Top outcome: December 31 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | 70 | Refresh |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 62 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Top outcome: September 30 | 2.1% | 1.2% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes refers to: Yes | 60.0% | 56.7% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 4.0% | 4.5% | High | 50 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | — |
