US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 11.0% 5.5%
November 30
Market Model 6.0% 3.0%
Iran Ceasefire Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (5)
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
Yes
Market Model 60.0% 56.7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 4.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Top outcome: December 31 | 11.0% | 5.5% | High | 67 | Refresh |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 7.0% | 3.5% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 8.0% | 4.6% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes refers to: Yes | 60.0% | 56.7% | Med | 67 | Refresh |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 4.5% | High | 57 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | — |
