Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 15.0%
Israel Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (5)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Benjamin Netanyahu
Market Model 30.0% 24.2%
Naftali Bennett
Market Model 7.0% 7.7%
Netanyahu out by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 48.0% 40.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 15.0% | Med | 57 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 2.7% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 44 | Refresh |
| Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? Top outcome: Benjamin Netanyahu | 30.0% | 24.2% | High | 67 | Refresh |
| Netanyahu out by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 48.0% | 40.1% | Med | 40 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (2)
Israel closes its airspace by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model — —
December 31
Market Model 67.0% 99.5%
November 30
Market Model 70.0% 99.5%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | — | ||
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Top outcome: December 31 | 67.0% | 99.5% | High | — |
