Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 16.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 14.2%
Khamenei Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (3)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 16.0% | 14.2% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 45 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 8.0% | 4.6% | High | 66 | Refresh |
