International Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (40)

What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027? Kalshi

20% or above

Market Model 97.0% 95.3%

50% or above

Market Model 66.0% 51.4%

9.4K contracts Refresh

Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election? Kalshi

Benjamin Netanyahu

Market Model 36.0% 23.5%

Benny Gantz

Market Model 1.0% 1.2%

82.3K contracts Refresh

Will France declare a state of emergency? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 26.0% 17.6%

15.9K contracts Refresh

Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 18.0% 23.2%

10.0K contracts Refresh

When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 6.0% 3.5%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 24.0% 14.1%

17.9K contracts Refresh

When will Serbia call its presidential election? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 93.0% 90.6%

15.7K contracts Refresh

Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 72.0% 81.9%

41.7K contracts Refresh

When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 24.0% 12.3%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 27.0% 16.0%

4.7K contracts Refresh

AfD in a German state government in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 40.0% 45.9%

1.2K contracts Refresh

Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 83.0% 76.6%

2.6K contracts Refresh

Keir Starmer departure announced? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 99.0% 98.6%

2.8M contracts Refresh

Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Kalshi

Xi Jinping

Market Model 3.0% 1.0%

Miguel Díaz-Canel

Market Model 60.0% 48.8%

3.4M contracts Refresh

Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Kalshi

Before January 21, 2029

Market Model 30.0% 15.7%

Before 2027

Market Model 8.5% 4.2%

3.2M contracts Refresh

Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? Kalshi

Before January 20, 2029

Market Model 22.0% 11.2%

Before 2027

Market Model 7.0% 3.5%

7.2M contracts Refresh

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 70.0% 51.8%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 84.0% 70.4%

19.9M contracts Refresh

What countries will Trump visit in 2026? Kalshi

Turkey

Market Model 75.0% 79.3%

Taiwan

Market Model 8.5% 3.3%

571.6K contracts Refresh

Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 9.0%

90.0K contracts Refresh

Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? Kalshi

Iran

Market Model 4.0% 1.4%

Syria

Market Model 12.0% 5.1%

66.1K contracts Refresh

Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 43.0% 31.8%

62.0K contracts Refresh

Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 9.0%

77.3K contracts Refresh

Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 49.0% 31.6%

Before Jan 31, 2028

Market Model 98.0% 95.7%

759.0K contracts Refresh

Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? Kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029

Market Model 52.0% 30.6%

Before 2027

Market Model 27.0% 14.0%

277.4K contracts Refresh

Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? Kalshi

Saudi Arabia

Market Model 19.0% 7.7%

Lebanon

Market Model 14.0% 6.3%

267.6K contracts Refresh

Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 13.5%

7.7K contracts Refresh

Will Trump recognize Taiwan? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 16.0% 12.2%

18.7K contracts Refresh

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 12.0% 4.2%

Before Jan 1, 2028

Market Model 36.0% 14.3%

292.2K contracts Refresh

Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 25.0% 21.0%

32.7K contracts Refresh

Who will recognize Palestine before 2027? Kalshi

Japan

Market Model 11.0% 4.6%

Italy

Market Model 9.9% 2.3%

85.7K contracts Refresh

Lisa Cook Out as Fed Governor? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 6.1%

46.8K contracts Refresh

Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 52.0% 61.8%

1.0K contracts Refresh

Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 30.0% 30.0%

517.0K contracts Refresh

Will Brendan Carr leave as FCC chair before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 21.0% 19.5%

1.5K contracts Refresh

Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 17.0% 17.0%

11.8K contracts Refresh

What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? Kalshi

United Nations

Market Model 43.0% 22.3%

World Trade Organization

Market Model 45.0% 22.6%

16.4K contracts Refresh

Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 90.1% 91.4%

12.7K contracts Refresh

EU has a new member before 2030? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 72.0% 61.4%

6.7K contracts Refresh

Which G7 leader will leave next? Kalshi

Keir Starmer

Market Model 53.0% 44.4%

Sanae Takaichi

Market Model 1.0% 1.1%

35.6K contracts Refresh

Which of these African leaders will leave office next? Kalshi

Félix Tshisekedi

Market Model 15.0% 12.6%

Paul Kagame

Market Model 5.0% 4.1%

9.5K contracts Refresh

Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 12.0% 7.8%

110.0K contracts Refresh

Will the US acquire any new territory? Kalshi

Before Jan 2027

Market Model 13.0% 6.5%

Before Jan 2028

Market Model 30.0% 15.7%

591.3K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027? Top outcome: 20% or above	97.0%	95.3%	High	67	Refresh
Who will be Israeli foreign minister after the election? Top outcome: Benjamin Netanyahu	36.0%	23.5%	Med	77	Refresh
Will France declare a state of emergency? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	26.0%	17.6%	High	70	Refresh
Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France? Yes refers to: Yes	18.0%	23.2%	Med	61	Refresh
When will Trump, Zelenskyy and Putin meet together? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	6.0%	3.5%	High	76	Refresh
When will Serbia call its presidential election? Yes refers to: Before Dec 1, 2026	93.0%	90.6%	High	91	Refresh
Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	72.0%	81.9%	High	—	Refresh
When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	24.0%	12.3%	High	64	Refresh
AfD in a German state government in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	40.0%	45.9%	Med	77	Refresh
Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	83.0%	76.6%	Med	66	Refresh
Keir Starmer departure announced? Yes refers to: Before Dec 1, 2026	99.0%	98.6%	High	—	Refresh
Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping	3.0%	1.0%	Med	40	Refresh
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 21, 2029	30.0%	15.7%	High	68	Refresh
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 20, 2029	22.0%	11.2%	High	70	Refresh
When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	70.0%	51.8%	High	77	Refresh
What countries will Trump visit in 2026? Top outcome: Turkey	75.0%	79.3%	Med	70	Refresh
Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? Yes refers to: Mars	9.0%	9.0%	Med	73	Refresh
Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? Top outcome: Iran	4.0%	1.4%	Med	67	Refresh
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China? Yes refers to: Before 2029	43.0%	31.8%	Med	75	Refresh
Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	9.0%	9.0%	Med	74	Refresh
Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	49.0%	31.6%	High	75	Refresh
Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029	52.0%	30.6%	Med	75	Refresh
Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? Top outcome: Saudi Arabia	19.0%	7.7%	Med	71	Refresh
Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	17.0%	13.5%	Med	66	Refresh
Will Trump recognize Taiwan? Yes refers to: During Trump's term	16.0%	12.2%	Med	69	Refresh
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	12.0%	4.2%	High	67	Refresh
Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year? Yes refers to: Yes	25.0%	21.0%	Med	75	Refresh
Who will recognize Palestine before 2027? Top outcome: Japan	11.0%	4.6%	Med	73	Refresh
Lisa Cook Out as Fed Governor? Yes refers to: Before Jan 2027	17.0%	6.1%	High	69	Refresh
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	52.0%	61.8%	Med	75	Refresh
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? Yes refers to: During Trump's term	30.0%	30.0%	Med	74	Refresh
Will Brendan Carr leave as FCC chair before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	21.0%	19.5%	Med	66	Refresh
Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term? Yes refers to: During Trump's term	17.0%	17.0%	Med	76	Refresh
What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? Top outcome: United Nations	43.0%	22.3%	Med	67	Refresh
Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? Yes refers to: Ending Jun 4, 2029	90.1%	91.4%	Med	68	Refresh
EU has a new member before 2030? Yes refers to: Any country	72.0%	61.4%	Med	67	Refresh
Which G7 leader will leave next? Top outcome: Keir Starmer	53.0%	44.4%	Med	—	Refresh
Which of these African leaders will leave office next? Top outcome: Félix Tshisekedi	15.0%	12.6%	High	35	Refresh
Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Yes refers to: Before 2029	12.0%	7.8%	Med	68	Refresh
Will the US acquire any new territory? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027	13.0%	6.5%	High	66	Refresh

Expired Markets (8)

Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

629.0K contracts

Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

46.3K contracts

What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

11.6K contracts

When will JD Vance visit Pakistan? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

56.0K contracts

Who will visit Iran before July? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

450.8K contracts

When will Trump visit China? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

776.1K contracts

Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

145.2K contracts

Who will visit Venezuela before May? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

544.3K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?	—	—	High	—
Will the Israeli parliament be dissolved?	—	—	High	—
What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?	—	—	High	—
When will JD Vance visit Pakistan?	—	—	High	—
Who will visit Iran before July?	—	—	Med	—
When will Trump visit China?	—	—	High	—
Will any NATO member state boycott the USA World Cup in 2026?	—	—	Med	—
Who will visit Venezuela before May?	—	—	Med	—

International Markets

Active Markets (40)

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