Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 95.7% 94.6%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 96.0% 94.6%
International Markets
Active Markets (31)
Xi Jinping
Market Model 3.0% 1.0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel
Market Model 60.0% 48.8%
Before January 21, 2029
Market Model 30.0% 15.7%
Before 2027
Market Model 8.5% 4.2%
Before January 20, 2029
Market Model 22.0% 11.2%
Before 2027
Market Model 7.0% 3.5%
Yes
Market Model 35.0% 36.8%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 39.0% 21.2%
Before Sep 1, 2026
Market Model 44.0% 24.6%
Turkey
Market Model 75.0% 79.3%
Taiwan
Market Model 8.5% 3.3%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 9.0%
Iran
Market Model 4.0% 1.4%
Syria
Market Model 12.0% 5.1%
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 31.8%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 9.0%
Before Aug 1, 2026
Market Model 15.0% 8.7%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 49.0% 31.6%
Before Jan 20, 2029
Market Model 52.0% 30.6%
Before 2027
Market Model 27.0% 14.0%
Saudi Arabia
Market Model 19.0% 7.7%
Lebanon
Market Model 14.0% 6.3%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 13.5%
Yes
Market Model 16.0% 12.2%
Before Jan 1, 2027
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Before Jan 1, 2028
Market Model 36.0% 14.3%
Yes
Market Model 25.0% 21.0%
Japan
Market Model 11.0% 4.6%
Italy
Market Model 9.9% 2.3%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 6.1%
Yes
Market Model 52.0% 61.8%
Yes
Market Model 30.0% 30.0%
Yes
Market Model 21.0% 19.5%
Yes
Market Model 17.0% 17.0%
United Nations
Market Model 43.0% 22.3%
World Trade Organization
Market Model 45.0% 22.6%
Yes
Market Model 90.1% 91.4%
Yes
Market Model 72.0% 61.4%
Keir Starmer
Market Model 53.0% 44.4%
Sanae Takaichi
Market Model 1.0% 1.1%
Félix Tshisekedi
Market Model 15.0% 12.6%
Paul Kagame
Market Model 5.0% 4.1%
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 7.8%
Before Jan 2027
Market Model 13.0% 6.5%
Before Jan 2028
Market Model 30.0% 15.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keir Starmer departure announced? Top outcome: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 95.7% | 94.6% | High | $2,750,349.81 | Refresh |
| Which leaders will leave office in 2026? Top outcome: Xi Jinping | 3.0% | 1.0% | Med | $3,357,247.16 | Refresh |
| Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 21, 2029 | 30.0% | 15.7% | High | $3,175,830.25 | Refresh |
| Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? Top outcome: Before January 20, 2029 | 22.0% | 11.2% | High | $7,248,072.05 | Refresh |
| Will the 2026 Pro Football champs visit the White House? Yes refers to: Yes | 35.0% | 36.8% | Med | $488,884.35 | Refresh |
| When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 39.0% | 21.2% | High | $19,854,047.04 | Refresh |
| What countries will Trump visit in 2026? Top outcome: Turkey | 75.0% | 79.3% | Med | $571,579.72 | Refresh |
| Will Elon Musk visit Mars in his lifetime? Yes refers to: Mars | 9.0% | 9.0% | Med | $90,030.64 | Refresh |
| Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026? Top outcome: Iran | 4.0% | 1.4% | Med | $66,072.14 | Refresh |
| Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 43.0% | 31.8% | Med | $62,017.63 | Refresh |
| Will Israel and Qatar normalize relations before 2027? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 9.0% | 9.0% | Med | $77,341.38 | Refresh |
| Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced? Top outcome: Before Aug 1, 2026 | 15.0% | 8.7% | High | $759,024.34 | Refresh |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak? Top outcome: Before Jan 20, 2029 | 52.0% | 30.6% | Med | $277,366.09 | Refresh |
| Which countries will normalize relations with Israel before 2027? Top outcome: Saudi Arabia | 19.0% | 7.7% | Med | $267,646.23 | Refresh |
| Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes
| 17.0% | 13.5% | Med | $7,688.02 | Refresh |
| Will Trump recognize Taiwan? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 16.0% | 12.2% | Med | $18,727.05 | Refresh |
| Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 12.0% | 4.2% | High | $292,187.31 | Refresh |
| Will Kanye West / Ye visit Israel this year? Yes refers to: Yes | 25.0% | 21.0% | Med | $32,740.93 | Refresh |
| Who will recognize Palestine before 2027? Top outcome: Japan | 11.0% | 4.6% | Med | $85,742.2 | Refresh |
| Lisa Cook Out as Fed Governor? Yes refers to: Before Jan 2027 | 17.0% | 6.1% | High | $46,810 | Refresh |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 52.0% | 61.8% | Med | $1,045.61 | Refresh |
| Will Trump take back the Panama Canal? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 30.0% | 30.0% | Med | $517,032.68 | Refresh |
| Will Brendan Carr leave as FCC chair before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 21.0% | 19.5% | Med | $1,488 | Refresh |
| Will Kim Jong-Un visit the US during Trump's term? Yes refers to: During Trump's term | 17.0% | 17.0% | Med | $11,785.62 | Refresh |
| What will the U.S. withdraw from during the Trump Administration? Top outcome: United Nations | 43.0% | 22.3% | Med | $16,430.71 | Refresh |
| Will South Korean President Lee Jae-myung serve their full term? Yes refers to: Ending Jun 4, 2029 | 90.1% | 91.4% | Med | $12,659 | Refresh |
| EU has a new member before 2030? Yes refers to: Any country | 72.0% | 61.4% | Med | $6,654.8 | Refresh |
| Which G7 leader will leave next? Top outcome: Keir Starmer | 53.0% | 44.4% | Med | $35,601.87 | Refresh |
| Which of these African leaders will leave office next? Top outcome: Félix Tshisekedi | 15.0% | 12.6% | High | $9,487 | Refresh |
| Will the US take control of any part of Canada? Yes refers to: Before 2029 | 12.0% | 7.8% | Med | $109,977 | Refresh |
| Will the US acquire any new territory? Top outcome: Before Jan 2027 | 13.0% | 6.5% | High | $591,333 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (7)
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
Yes
Market Model — —
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | High | $46,254.1 | ||
| — | — | High | $11,568.67 | ||
| — | — | High | $56,043.27 | ||
| — | — | Med | $450,812.3 | ||
| — | — | High | $776,058.91 | ||
| — | — | Med | $145,217.42 | ||
| — | — | Med | $544,271.76 |
