Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect that Elizabeth MacDonough will be out as Parliamentarian in 2026, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

The price action for this market has been characterized by a stable, sideways trend within a very narrow range. The probability of Elizabeth MacDonough being out as Parliamentarian has traded between a support level of 17.0% and a resistance level of 23.0%. The market opened with the price at 20.0% and is currently trading at the bottom of its range, 17.0%, suggesting a stable and slightly decreasing expectation that she will leave her post before 2027.
The most significant price movement was a drop from the market high of 23.0% down to the current low of 17.0% around May 15. This downward move appears to coincide with news reports of MacDonough actively performing her duties and issuing high-profile rulings on legislative matters. The context indicates she continued to make decisions on budget reconciliation bills, reinforcing her ongoing role and authority. This visible activity likely decreased traders' perception of the probability that she would be replaced, pushing the price down to its current support level.
Total volume is moderate, but trading activity increased during the key price movements. The rise in volume accompanying the price drop to 17.0% suggests growing market conviction that she will remain in her position. Overall, the low and stable price indicates a strong market consensus. Traders consistently assess the likelihood of her departure before the resolution date as low, and recent events have only served to reinforce this sentiment, solidifying the 17.0% level as a key support point.
  • Senate Parliamentarian is a nonpartisan official, historically rarely removed.
  • The 2026 Senate election outcome may impact MacDonough's tenure decision.
  • MacDonough's rulings have significantly influenced the Republican Senate agenda.
  • Recent rulings, like ballroom funding rejection, created friction with the Senate.
  • Upcoming 2026 legislative items pose significant political risk to her position.
  • Majority Leader Schumer criticized Republicans for overriding Parliamentarian's advice.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Yes 17.0% 13.5% A change in Senate leadership may lead to a new Parliamentarian by 2026.

Current Context

Elizabeth MacDonough continues her role as Senate Parliamentarian, actively performing her duties. As of May 17, 2026, she remains in office, regularly issuing rulings on legislative matters, including budget reconciliation bills [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Recent actions include her rejection of funding for a White House ballroom project within a budget bill [1][3][4][6] and portions of an immigration funding bill [5].
Speculation about Elizabeth MacDonough's tenure is evident in prediction markets. Platforms like Kalshi host active markets concerning her potential departure from office in 2026, reflecting ongoing public interest and uncertainty regarding the duration of her service [7].
Sources (7)
  1. 1Senate parliamentarian nixes Trump’s ballroom fund in budget billnbcnews.com
  2. 2Senate Parliamentarian - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Senate Parliamentarian Rejects Funding for White House Ballroom Projectworld.infonasional.com
  4. 4Nervous Republicans weigh their options amid White House’s ballroom lobbying blitzpolitico.com
  5. 5Senate Parliamentarian Rejects Portions of Immigration Funding Billworld.infonasional.com
  6. 6Nervous GOP weighs options on ballroompolitico.com
  7. 7Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian this year? - Kalshikalshi.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

Here's a summary of the Kalshi prediction market rules:

1. YES resolution triggers: The market resolves to "Yes" if Elizabeth MacDonough officially announces her intention to leave or actually leaves her position as Parliamentarian of the United States Senate before January 1, 2027. An official announcement must be reported by a listed source agency and cannot state a departure more than a year from the announcement date. "Leaving office" includes resignation, termination, or removal, but not temporary absences or death. 2. NO resolution triggers: The market resolves to "No" if Elizabeth MacDonough neither officially announces her intention to leave nor actually leaves her position as Parliamentarian of the United States Senate by December 31, 2026. 3. Key dates/deadlines: The market opened on April 11, 2026. The key deadline for the event to occur is before January 1, 2027. The market will close early if the event occurs, otherwise it closes on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 pm EST, with a projected payout 30 minutes after closing. 4. Special settlement conditions: An official announcement requires reporting by at least one of the specified news agencies. Insider trading by employees of these source agencies or those with material, non-public information is prohibited.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Yes $0.17 $0.85 17%

Market Discussion

As of May 17, 2026, Elizabeth MacDonough remains the Senate Parliamentarian and is actively performing her duties, including issuing rulings on budget reconciliation bills [1][2][3]. Ongoing political speculation about her tenure, including the possibility of her departure in 2026, is reflected in various prediction markets [4][5][6]. This tension largely stems from her rulings against provisions in a Republican-led budget bill, specifically concerning funding for a White House ballroom project and immigration enforcement [1][7][8][3][9].

Sources (9)
  1. 1Senate parliamentarian nixes Trump’s ballroom fund in budget billnbcnews.com
  2. 2Senate Parliamentarian - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  3. 3Ballroom security money nixed by Senate parliamentarian - POLITICOpolitico.com
  4. 4Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian this year? - Kalshikalshi.com
  5. 5Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026? - Coinbasecoinbase.com
  6. 6Thune fires Senate Parliamentarian MacDonough before July... 2026 | Polymarketpolymarket.com
  7. 7Senate Parliamentarian Rejects Funding for White House Ballroom Projectworld.infonasional.com
  8. 8Nervous Republicans weigh their options amid White House’s ballroom lobbying blitzpolitico.com
  9. 9Nervous GOP weighs options on ballroompolitico.com

4. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 70 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score82Good
Trade quality20% of score22Avoid

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score70Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
77Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesTape too thin Clear
Thin-volume movesPrice moves carried real volume. Clear
Size patternsTape too thin Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
28Very thin

Hard to fill near the screen price

1 contract

Yes28
Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Yes—
No trading in 30h

No trades in the last 30h — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Yes100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
22Avoid

Order book is critically thin

Thin market — entering or exiting at fair value will be difficult.

Outcome quality 28 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 18.5c slippage (~185% of a 10c contract)

$1,000 order: 40.7c slippage (~407% of a 10c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Yes28Market scoreLiquidity28Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 28
Liquidity
28 · Very thin · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
No trading in 30h

No trades in the last 30h — nothing to confirm

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

5. What historical precedents exist for removing a Senate Parliamentarian, and how do those circumstances compare to MacDonough's position in 2026?

Parliamentarian Robert Dove DismissalMay 2001 [1][2][3][4]
Elizabeth MacDonough Appointment Year2012 [1]
Parliamentarian Status (May 2026)Not dismissed [1][5]
The Senate Parliamentarian is a nonpartisan official, rarely removed historically. This unelected, nonpartisan official advises the Senate on its rules and procedures [1][2][6]. While the position is technically at the discretion of the Senate majority leader, it has traditionally been treated as a nonpartisan role that continues across shifts in party control [1][2][6]. The only modern historical instance of a Senate Parliamentarian's removal occurred in May 2001, when Republican Leader Trent Lott dismissed Robert Dove because Dove's rulings impeded the GOP's legislative agenda [1][2][3][4].
Elizabeth MacDonough faces significant political pressure from both parties. Having served as Parliamentarian since 2012, MacDonough has encountered substantial pressure from both Democrats and Republicans [1]. In 2021, Democrats advocated for her removal following rulings concerning the minimum wage [1][7][8]. Similarly, Republicans made calls for her dismissal in 2025 regarding Medicaid spending [1][9]. Individual senators, such as Tommy Tuberville in 2025, have also publicly urged her removal [9][5].
MacDonough has remained in her position despite persistent calls for removal. Despite these public pressures and the tracking of her potential departure by prediction markets, MacDonough has retained her role [1][5]. As of May 2026, there is no indication that Senate leadership has taken steps to dismiss her [1][5].
Sources (9)
  1. 1The History of Congressional Parliamentarians and Why They Mattergoverning.com
  2. 2The obscure, unelected Senate official whose rulings can help – or kill – a bill’s chance to passtheconversation.com
  3. 3Key Senate Official Loses Job in Dispute With GOPwashingtonpost.com
  4. 4Robert Doveen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian this year? - Kalshikalshi.com
  6. 6Parliamentarian of the United States Senateen.wikipedia.org
  7. 7Who Is The Senate Parliamentarian Who Ruled Against A Minimum Wage Increase?thin.npr.org
  8. 8COVID-19 bill cannot include minimum wage hike, Senate parliamentarian saysinquirer.com
  9. 9GOP senator calls for Senate parliamentarian to be fired after ruling against Medicaid cutsthehill.com

6. How might the outcome of the November 2026 Senate elections impact a decision by Senate leadership on Elizabeth MacDonough's tenure?

Current Senate ParliamentarianElizabeth MacDonough (as of May 2026) [1][2][3][4]
Tenure DeterminationDepends on November 2026 Senate election outcome [5][6]
Authority to Appoint/RemoveMajority party in Senate [6]
Elizabeth MacDonough's rulings have significantly influenced the Republican Senate agenda. Elizabeth MacDonough currently serves as the Senate Parliamentarian, a role she assumed in May 2026. In this capacity, she has recently issued procedural rulings that have directly impacted the legislative agenda of the Republican-led Senate. Notably, MacDonough has ruled against specific components within various GOP-backed spending packages [1][2][3][4].
The 2026 Senate elections will determine MacDonough's future as Parliamentarian. The continuation of Elizabeth MacDonough's tenure as Parliamentarian is contingent upon the outcome of the highly competitive November 2026 Senate elections. The party that secures the majority in these elections will hold the authority to decide whether to retain or replace the Parliamentarian for the subsequent Congress, given that the Senate Parliamentarian serves at the discretion of the majority party [5][6]. Political speculation regarding her role amid legislative disputes is evident, with prediction markets actively monitoring the likelihood of MacDonough remaining in her position through the end of 2026 [7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Senate Parliamentarian Kills Core of Republicans' ICE Funding Packagemigrantinsider.com
  2. 2Senate Parliamentarian Says GOP Spending Package Violates Rulesthewellnews.com
  3. 3Senate Ruling Threatens Ballroom Funding in G.O.P. Budget Billnytimes.com
  4. 4Senate parliamentarian deals blow to $1 billion security proposal for...facebook.com
  5. 5Will the Senate be up for grabs come November?washingtonpost.com
  6. 62026 United States Senate electionsen.wikipedia.org
  7. 7Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian this year? - Kalshikalshi.com
  8. 8Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026? | Prediction...coinbase.com

7. How do Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's public statements and past actions on the Parliamentarian's authority compare?

Schumer's Criticism DateMay 2025 [1]
Parliamentarian Tenure Start2012 [2][3][4][5]
Current Parliamentarian Status DateMay 17, 2026 [2][3][4][5]
Majority Leader Chuck Schumer strongly criticized Republicans for overriding the Parliamentarian's advice. In May 2025, Schumer publicly denounced Senate Republicans for overriding the Parliamentarian's counsel, characterizing the action as "going nuclear" and an erosion of the Senate's fundamental principles [1].
Specific public actions from Leader McConnell regarding the Parliamentarian are not detailed in the provided facts. Elizabeth MacDonough has served as the Senate Parliamentarian since 2012 and remains in this position as of May 17, 2026 [2][3][4][5]. Historically, the Parliamentarian's role has been largely considered nonpartisan and advisory by both political parties, with deference typically given to rulings to avoid weakening Senate rules or the filibuster [2][6][7][8]. While one source describes MacDonough as "lately, she’s been Mitch McConnell’s nemesis," the available information does not specify public statements or past actions by McConnell to override her rulings [8]. It is notable that both parties have previously employed the "nuclear option" in other legislative contexts, such as for judicial nominees, to bypass 60-vote thresholds [2][6][7][8].
Sources (8)
  1. 1Leader Schumer Floor Remarks On Senate R... | The Senate Democratic Caucusdemocrats.senate.gov
  2. 2Why the Senate Parliamentarian is at the center of a fierce debate over Trump’s agenda bill | CNN Politicscnn.com
  3. 3Who is Elizabeth MacDonough? Meet the Senate parliamentarian catching flak from GOPwashingtonexaminer.com
  4. 4Parliamentarian of the United States Senateen.wikipedia.org
  5. 5Senate Parliamentarian - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
  6. 6How Republicans Could Nuke the Rules to Pass Trumpcarenymag.com
  7. 7The obscure Senate rule that could sink Obamacare repeal, explainedcnbc.com
  8. 8What is the Senate parliamentarian? Lately, she’s been Mitch McConnell’s nemesis.mic.com

8. What public data sources can be used to track calls for Elizabeth MacDonough's dismissal by members of Congress or influential media outlets in 2026?

Public Data SourcesMajor political news outlets, X (formerly Twitter), and prediction markets like Kalshi [1][2][3]
Key Proponents for DismissalRepublican lawmakers such as Sen. Tommy Tuberville and Rep. Greg Steube [4][1][2]
Historical Resistance to DismissalSenate leadership (e.g., John Thune) and other Republican colleagues [1][2]
Public data sources can effectively track calls for Elizabeth MacDonough's dismissal in 2026. Key public data sources for monitoring these calls include major political news outlets such as The Hill, Politico, AP, and USA Today [1][2]. Social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) also serve as a public data source, as members of Congress frequently post their statements and positions there [1][2]. Furthermore, prediction markets, specifically Kalshi, offer a centralized platform to track the likelihood of MacDonough's departure, with a dedicated market, "Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian in 2026?", aggregating sentiment and news regarding her employment status [3].
Republican lawmakers primarily drive calls for MacDonough's dismissal in both 2025 and 2026. These calls have been notably led by figures such as Sen. Tommy Tuberville and Rep. Greg Steube [4][1][2]. The impetus for these demands stems from MacDonough's procedural rulings that have blocked key provisions of the Trump administration's legislative agenda, including instances like the "Big, Beautiful Bill" and various spending packages [4][1][2].
Senate leadership has historically resisted dismissal calls for MacDonough. In 2025, Senate leadership, including John Thune, along with other Republican colleagues, consistently opposed these calls for her dismissal [1][2].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Senate parliamentarian’s role under scrutiny over as Republicans call for her firing over the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’newsbreak.com
  2. 2GOP senator calls for Senate parliamentarian to be fired after ruling against Medicaid cutsthehill.com
  3. 3Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian this year? - Kalshikalshi.com
  4. 4Gop senator calls parliamentarians firing after serving medicaid blow trumps big beautiful billfoxnews.com

9. Which upcoming legislative items in 2026, particularly under budget reconciliation, pose the greatest political risk to MacDonough's position?

Date of Key RulingMay 17, 2026 (against immigration package) [1][2][3][4][5]
Reason for RulingViolations of the Byrd Rule [1][2][3][4][5]
Current StatusRemains Senate Parliamentarian as of May 2026 [6][7][8][9]
MacDonough recently rejected key provisions of a $72 billion immigration package. On May 17, 2026, Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough ruled against significant components of a Republican-led $72 billion immigration enforcement reconciliation package, citing violations of the Byrd Rule [1][2][3][4][5]. The rejected provisions included funding for Border Patrol activities deemed outside committee jurisdiction, measures for screening unaccompanied migrant children, and a $2.5 billion block of Department of Homeland Security (DHS) appropriations [1][4][5]. These particular appropriations were found to conflict with existing legal frameworks, specifically the Flores Settlement Agreement and the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act [1][4][5].
Her position remains secure despite previous calls for her removal. As of May 2026, Elizabeth MacDonough continues to serve as Senate Parliamentarian, despite political friction caused by her recent decisions [6][7][8][9]. While certain Republican lawmakers have previously advocated for her removal over past procedural rulings, there is no current official effort to terminate her employment [6][7][8][9]. Furthermore, the available research did not identify any other upcoming legislative items in 2026 that specifically pose a political risk to her tenure [6][7][8][9].
Sources (9)
  1. 1Senate Parliamentarian Kills Core of Republicans' ICE Funding Packagemigrantinsider.com
  2. 2Senate rulekeeper deals blows to GOP's immigration enforcement...politico.com
  3. 3Senate Parliamentarian Rules Against Parts of GOP Immigration...thefiscaltimes.com
  4. 4Senate GOP Unveils $72 Billion Immigration Enforcement Reconciliation Package: What It Means for ICE, CBP, and the Immigration System | ClinchLaw Immigration Newsnews.clinchlaw.com
  5. 5GOP drops $72B immigration reconciliation billpunchbowl.news
  6. 6Senate’s Byrd Rule Upends Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill’newsbreak.com
  7. 7Senate Parliamentarian Delivers Devastating Blow to “One Big Beautiful Bill” – Cordasco & Companycspcpa.com
  8. 8Elizabeth MacDonoughen.wikipedia.org
  9. 9Meet the Senate parliamentarian, the official tying Republicans in knots over their tax billcapitalgazette.com

10. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

Recent rulings by Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, including the rejection of funding for a White House ballroom project within a budget reconciliation bill, have created friction with the current Republican-led Senate [1][2][3][4]. This friction is cited as a potential catalyst for speculation regarding her future in the role [1][2][3][4].
Prediction markets, such as Kalshi, reflect active speculation on MacDonough's tenure by listing contracts regarding whether she will leave office in 2026 [5].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Expiration: January 08, 2027
  • Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (5)
  1. 1Senate parliamentarian nixes Trump’s ballroom fund in budget billnbcnews.com
  2. 2Senate Parliamentarian Rejects Funding for White House Ballroom Projectworld.infonasional.com
  3. 3Nervous Republicans weigh their options amid White House’s ballroom lobbying blitzpolitico.com
  4. 4Nervous GOP weighs options on ballroompolitico.com
  5. 5Elizabeth MacDonough out as Parliamentarian this year? - Kalshikalshi.com