How many seats will the SNP win in the Scottish Parliament election?
Short Answer
Both the model and the market expect the SNP to win Above 56 seats in the Scottish Parliament election, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
This market has demonstrated a strong upward trend, starting at a probability of 82.0% and rising to a current price of 95.0%. The most significant price movement was a 12.1 percentage point spike around May 01, 2026, which pushed the probability from 82.0% to 94.1%. This sharp increase appears to be a direct reaction to the release of final polling data ahead of the election. For instance, final projections from YouGov and Survation, while indicating the SNP would fall short of an overall majority, forecasted seat counts of 62 and 59, respectively. These figures are both comfortably above the 56-seat threshold of this market, which likely caused traders to increase their valuation of a "YES" outcome, solidifying market conviction.
The price action suggests an initial support level at 82.0%, where the market held firm before its major breakout. Following the spike, the price has established a new, higher trading range, consolidating around 95.0% and suggesting this has become a new support level, with the peak of 96.3% acting as near-term resistance. The total traded volume of 3,068 contracts indicates significant market participation and conviction behind the price trend. Overall, the chart reflects a high and growing market sentiment that the SNP will secure more than 56 seats. The market swiftly priced in polling data that, despite being negative for a majority, was strongly positive for this specific contract's resolution criteria.
- Final MRP polls (May 6, 2026) project SNP to win 59-62 seats.
- The Scottish National Party is projected to fall short of a 65-seat majority.
- Electoral Calculus modelling suggests the Scottish National Party could secure 67 seats.
- Market price for 'Above 64' dropped following final opinion poll data.
- Anti-SNP tactical voting may influence a limited number of seats.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 64 | 5.1% | 5.2% | Final opinion polls published May 6, 2026, project fewer than 64 seats for the SNP. |
| Above 60 | 70.0% | 51.8% | Final opinion polls project the SNP to win between 59 and 62 seats. |
| Above 56 | 95.0% | 89.5% | Final opinion polls consistently project the SNP to win between 59 and 62 seats. |
| Above 68 | 9.0% | 3.0% | Final opinion polls consistently project the SNP to win between 59 and 62 seats, falling short of 68. |
Current Context
Recent major projections indicate the SNP will fall short of a majority. The final model/poll figures from major pollsters suggest the Scottish National Party (SNP) will not secure an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament election. YouGov’s final MRP, published on May 6, 2026, projects the SNP to win 62 seats, which is below the 65-seat threshold required for an outright majority [1]. Similarly, Survation’s final MRP/poll cycle, also published on May 6, 2026, projects 59 seats for the SNP [2]. An earlier YouGov MRP, published on April 8, 2026, had projected a central estimate of 67 seats [3].
Other projections largely corroborate the trend of no outright majority. Contemporary polling-based analyses further support the expectation that the SNP will not achieve an outright majority. Survation’s midpoint projection places the SNP at 59 seats [2]. Ipsos reported that the SNP’s vote leads implied seat outcomes consistent with the YouGov and Survation projections, clustering in the low-60s and indicating fewer than 65 seats [4]. Ballot Box Scotland’s projection model suggests 58 seats for the SNP, with a wider projection range between approximately 48 and 70 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) [5]. These various projections collectively point to the SNP falling short of a majority.
Sources (5)
- 1Final YouGov MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election shows the SNP falling short of a majorityyougov.com
- 2Final Survation Holyrood Poll of the 2026 Electionssurvation.com
- 3First YouGov MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election suggests the SNP could win a majorityyougov.co.uk
- 4SNP out in front while the race for second place is too close to call - but 1 in 4 may still change their mindipsos.com
- 5SP26: Final Ballot Box Scotland Projection – Ballot Box Scotlandballotbox.scot
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
Outcome: Above 64
📉 May 08, 2026: 32.9pp drop
Price decreased from 38.0% to 5.1%
What happened: The primary driver of the prediction market price drop was the ongoing announcement of Scottish Parliament election results on May 8, 2026 [1]. Early results, despite the Scottish National Party (SNP) securing several seats, indicated a significant decrease in their vote share (e.g., 10-13% in Dundee West and East) compared to the 2021 election [2]. This outcome coincided with pre-election projections from pollsters like YouGov and Survation, which had already estimated the SNP would fall short of a 65-seat majority, making the "Above 64" outcome less likely [3][4][5]. Social media was irrelevant, as no specific activity appeared to influence this movement.
📉 May 06, 2026: 22.0pp drop
Price decreased from 54.0% to 32.0%
What happened: The 22.0 percentage point drop in the "Above 64" market was primarily driven by the release of final opinion polls predicting the Scottish National Party (SNP) would secure fewer than 64 seats. YouGov's final MRP model for the May 06, 2026 election predicted a central estimate of 62 seats for the SNP, a notable decrease from an earlier April 2026 YouGov projection of 67 seats [3]. Additionally, Survation's final poll estimated the SNP would win 59 seats [4]. This downward revision in leading polling projections, released just before the election date, directly undermined the likelihood of the SNP winning above 64 seats. Social media was not identified as a primary driver nor a contributing accelerant based on the provided information.
Outcome: Above 60
📈 May 07, 2026: 20.9pp spike
Price increased from 74.0% to 94.9%
What happened: The provided web research does not contain specific social media activity or traditional news announcements occurring on May 07, 2026, that would directly explain the 20.9 percentage point spike for the "Above 60" outcome. While the final YouGov MRP on May 06, 2026, projected 62 seats for the SNP, supporting the outcome [3], this preceded the market move. Conversely, the final Survation poll on the same day projected 59 seats [4]. Based solely on the available information, the specific primary driver for this price movement is undetermined, and social media's role in it is irrelevant due to a lack of supporting data.
Outcome: Above 56
📈 May 01, 2026: 12.1pp spike
Price increased from 82.0% to 94.1%
What happened: The primary driver of the 12.1 percentage point spike for the "Above 56" outcome on May 01, 2026, appears to be the release of final polling data and projections immediately preceding or coinciding with the election day. Several prominent forecasts indicated the Scottish National Party (SNP) was likely to secure more than 56 seats. Notably, Survation estimated 59 seats, KuCoin projected 66-67 seats, and Electoral Calculus suggested an outright SNP majority, all supporting the "Above 56" outcome [4]. There is no information in the provided sources to suggest social media activity was a primary driver; therefore, it is considered irrelevant.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to Yes if the Scottish National Party (SNP) wins above 64 seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, and No if they win 64 or fewer, with results verified by the Electoral Management Board for Scotland. A seat is won when an affiliated candidate is declared elected and seated or challenges resolved; by-elections are included only if seated simultaneously. The market closes after the outcome or by May 7, 2027, with payouts 30 minutes later, but resolves to the last fair market price if the election is postponed beyond a year or cancelled.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 56 | $0.99 | $0.09 | 95% |
| Above 60 | $0.99 | $0.30 | 70% |
| Above 68 | $0.10 | $0.99 | 9% |
| Above 64 | $0.38 | $0.98 | 5% |
Market Discussion
Current projections from polls such as Survation and More in Common estimate the Scottish National Party (SNP) to win 59-60 seats, short of a parliamentary majority [1][2]. However, a YouGov model suggests an SNP majority cannot be entirely ruled out, with an upper bound of 66 seats in 11% of simulations, while some earlier polls projected an outright majority with 67 seats [3][4]. When combined with projected Green seats, nationalist parties are anticipated to comfortably exceed the 65-seat threshold for a pro-independence majority, with Survation projecting approximately 75 total seats [5][3][1].
5. What do the final 2026 MRP polls from YouGov and Survation indicate about the SNP's performance on regional lists versus in constituencies?
| YouGov Projected SNP Constituency Seats | 66 of 73 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| YouGov Projected SNP Regional List Seats | 1 [1][2] |
| Survation Projected SNP Total Seats | 59 (midpoint) [3] |
Final 2026 polls project SNP strength in constituencies. Both YouGov and Survation MRP polls indicate the Scottish National Party's (SNP) electoral advantage is more significant in constituency contests than in regional lists [1][3]. The majority of the SNP's projected seats are anticipated to come from constituency wins, rather than regional top-ups [1][3].
YouGov projects overwhelming SNP dominance in constituencies. YouGov's final projections show a strong constituency focus for the SNP, forecasting 66 wins out of 73 constituency seats. Despite leading the regional vote across all eight regions, YouGov predicts the SNP would secure only one regional top-up seat [1][2].
Survation estimates a lower total, with more regional seats. Survation's final MRP, conducted for May 7, 2026, estimates the SNP's total seat count at 59, presented as a midpoint projection [3]. This includes a breakdown of 43 constituency seats and 16 regional list seats, indicating that 16 of the 59 projected SNP seats would be attributed to regional lists [3].
6. What impact could tactical voting in key unionist-held marginals have on the SNP's final seat count in the May 2026 election?
| Anti-SNP tactical votes expected (2026) | Over half [1] |
|---|---|
| Anti-SNP tactical vote movement (2021) | 83% [1] |
| YouGov SNP seat projection (May 2026) | 62 seats (range 56–66) [2] |
Anti-SNP sentiment drives tactical voting, influencing a limited number of seats. Ahead of polling on April 19, 2026, reports indicated that over half of anticipated tactical votes would be directed against the Scottish National Party (SNP). This trend is consistent with 2021 election data, which revealed that 83% of tactical vote movement was anti-SNP [1].
Tactical voting may prevent an SNP majority, shifting a few seats. While this tactical movement could be sufficient to prevent the SNP from securing a majority by impacting a handful of constituencies, expert analysis and final polling projections suggest its effect operates within a relatively narrow band [3][4]. Final MRP projections from May 6, 2026, by YouGov indicated the SNP at 62 seats, with a projected range of 56–66 [2]. Survation's projections for the same date placed the SNP at 59 seats, within a range of 53 to 64 [5][6]. These projections align with tactical voting influencing the final seat count within the low-60s to high-50s, rather than causing a drastic change in the overall order of magnitude of SNP seats [2][5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1Holyrood 2026 election: Half of tactical votes will be anti-SNPscotsman.com
- 2Final YouGov MRP of the 2026 Holyrood election shows the SNP falling short of a majorityyougov.com
- 3John Curtice: Polls says SNP will be the largest party but numbers vary - BBC Newsbbc.co.uk
- 4‘Odds against’ John Swinney’s SNP winning Holyrood majority, says polling expert | The Independentindependent.co.uk
- 5Survation | Final Survation Holyrood Poll of the 2026 Elections | Survationsurvation.com
- 6Final MRP poll of Scottish elections predicts who will win | The Nationalthenational.scot
7. How do the 2026 election manifestos of the SNP and the Scottish Labour Party compare on the key issues of independence and economic policy?
| SNP Independence Mandate | Majority of SNP votes and seats would secure a mandate for an independence referendum (2026 manifesto) [1][2] |
|---|---|
| SNP Childcare Expansion | Transformational national expansion of childcare from 9 months to end of primary school, 52 weeks a year [1][3] |
| Scottish Labour Social Care Pay | Raise pay for social care workers to £15 per hour [4][5] |
The Scottish National Party (SNP)'s 2026 manifesto sought an independence mandate and economic stability. Titled "On Scotland's Side," the manifesto stated that a majority of SNP votes and seats in the election would secure a mandate for an independence referendum [1][2]. Economically, the SNP prioritized tackling the cost of living crisis, improving the NHS, and asserting control over Scotland's energy resources [1][2]. Key proposals included a national expansion of childcare, extending the £2 bus fare cap, and implementing measures to ensure supermarkets maintain low food prices [1][3]. On taxation, the SNP committed to preserving Scotland's income tax system as the "fairest and most progressive in the UK" by not increasing the number of bands or rates, though the manifesto did not mention freezing thresholds [1][6].
Scottish Labour focused on economic revival and affordability without income tax hikes. Their economic manifesto aimed to kickstart the economy and make life more affordable for citizens [7][8]. Scottish Labour pledged not to increase income tax rates across the parliamentary term, though this commitment did not explicitly rule out potential increases resulting from frozen thresholds [4][5]. A significant economic proposal was the replacement of non-domestic (business) rates with a new tax designed to incentivize local investment and support town centers [4][9]. The party also committed to raising social care worker pay to £15 per hour and increasing health and social care spending to at least £25 billion by 2030-31 [4][5]. Additional proposals included maintaining and increasing the Scottish Child Payment for children under one, providing funded holiday clubs, and improving childcare flexibility [4][8]. Furthermore, they planned to end the block on clean nuclear energy and reform planning and procurement systems [8][9].
8. What does the historical accuracy of YouGov's MRP model in the 2021 and 2016 Scottish elections suggest about its 2026 projections?
| SNP 2026 Projected Seats | 62 seats [1][2] |
|---|---|
| Overall Majority Threshold | 65 seats [1][2] |
| SNP 2026 Projection Range | 56 to 66 seats [1][3] |
YouGov's 2026 projections predict SNP will fall short of majority.
YouGov's most recent MRP projections for the 2026 Scottish Parliament election indicate that the Scottish National Party (SNP) is forecast to secure 62 seats, which would place them short of an overall majority of 65 in the 129-member Parliament [1][2]. These projections also suggest a range of potential outcomes for the SNP, with estimates spanning from a lower bound of 56 seats to an upper bound of 66 seats [1][3].
Historical accuracy in past Scottish elections is undeterminable.
While YouGov's MRP method is recognized for its success in other major elections, the provided information does not detail its historical accuracy specifically in the 2021 and 2016 Scottish elections [2]. This lack of historical projected seat numbers or actual election outcomes for those specific years means it is not possible to determine what past performance in Scottish elections suggests about the reliability of the 2026 projections based on the available data.
9. How are projected changes in voter turnout among different age demographics expected to influence the SNP versus Scottish Labour vote share in 2026?
| Scottish Labour support (16-34 age group) | halved in some regions in early 2026 [1][2] |
|---|---|
| 16-17 year old voter registration | about 60% in December 2025 [3] |
| Reform UK largest gains (age group) | among voters aged 55-64 [1] |
Lower turnout among younger voters will influence party shares. Younger voters (16-34) historically show lower turnout despite generally favoring the SNP, Scottish Greens, and Scottish independence [1][4][2]. This reduced turnout could specifically affect the Scottish Greens. Notably, Scottish Labour's support among voters aged 16-34 has reportedly halved in some regions in early 2026 [1][2].
Higher turnout from older voters introduces new electoral dynamics. Conversely, older voters typically exhibit higher turnout rates and have historically shown less support for Scottish independence [2][4]. A significant factor is the rise of Reform UK, which has made its largest gains among voters aged 55-64 [1]. This development could impact Scottish Labour if older unionist voters opt for Reform UK rather than Labour as the main challenger to the SNP in specific constituencies [2][5][1][6]. Despite these generational shifts, recent polling indicates the SNP continues to receive the most support across all age demographics [1].
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Major seat projections for the next scheduled Scottish Parliament election on 7 May 2026 indicate varied outcomes. Electoral Calculus modelling suggests the Scottish National Party (SNP) could secure 67 seats, potentially forming a small majority [1]. In contrast, Survation’s final MRP projects the SNP to win 59 seats, which would be short of the 65-seat majority threshold [2]. A YouGov MRP suggests a central projection of 67 seats for the SNP, with a potential range of 63–69 seats, and a majority in 89% of its simulations [3].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: May 07, 2027
- Closes: May 07, 2027
