Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
Iran Regime Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (6)
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 16.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 14.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
Market Model 82.1% 80.2%
Mohammad Khatami
Market Model 0.2% 0.5%
Yes
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.2% 4.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 2.7% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 16.0% | 14.2% | High | 68 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 45 | Refresh |
| Iran leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Mojtaba Khamenei | 82.1% | 80.2% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 8.0% | 4.6% | High | 66 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 4.2% | 4.2% | Med | 54 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 23.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 43.0% | 23.9% | High | 63 |
