Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.0% 2.7%
Iran Regime Markets
Active Markets (6)
Iran leadership change by...? Polymarket
December 31
Market Model 16.0% 14.2%
December 31
Market Model 14.0% 14.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 7.0% 7.0%
Iran leader end of 2026? Polymarket
Mojtaba Khamenei
Market Model 82.1% 80.2%
Mohammad Khatami
Market Model 0.2% 0.5%
September 30
Market Model 2.1% 1.2%
December 31
Market Model 8.0% 4.6%
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 4.2% 4.2%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 4.0% | 2.7% | High | 57 | Refresh |
| Iran leadership change by...? Top outcome: December 31 | 16.0% | 14.2% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 7.0% | 7.0% | Med | 56 | Refresh |
| Iran leader end of 2026? Top outcome: Mojtaba Khamenei | 82.1% | 80.2% | High | 56 | Refresh |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...? Top outcome: September 30 | 2.1% | 1.2% | High | 64 | Refresh |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 4.2% | 4.2% | Med | 54 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model 43.0% 23.9%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by...? Yes refers to: December 31 | 43.0% | 23.9% | High | 64 |
