Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.6% 2.6%
Foreign Policy Markets
2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.Active Markets (2)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.8% 3.8%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.6% | 2.6% | Med | 58 | Refresh |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.8% | 3.8% | Med | 57 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (2)
Ukraine election called by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Ukraine election held by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 1.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 12.0% | 4.2% | High | 52 | |
| Ukraine election held by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | 1.7% | High | 46 |
