Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.6% 2.6%
Foreign Policy Markets
Active Markets (4)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 3.8% 3.8%
Ukraine election called by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 12.0% 4.2%
Ukraine election held by...? Polymarket
Yes
Market Model 5.0% 1.7%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | TI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.6% | 2.6% | Med | 58 | Refresh |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes refers to: Yes | 3.8% | 3.8% | Med | 56 | Refresh |
| Ukraine election called by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 12.0% | 4.2% | High | 51 | Refresh |
| Ukraine election held by...? Yes refers to: December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | 1.7% | High | 44 | Refresh |
