Local Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (10)

Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 71.0% 60.2%

10.4K contracts Refresh

When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 24.0% 12.3%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 27.0% 16.0%

4.7K contracts Refresh

Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 13.3%

4.2K contracts Refresh

Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 5.0%

2.9M contracts Refresh

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 7.8%

29.2K contracts Refresh

Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 13.0% 10.2%

55.4K contracts Refresh

NYC population change in Mamdani's first 18 months? Kalshi

Decrease 0-0.99%

Market Model 48.0% 38.0%

Increase 0.01-0.99%

Market Model 40.0% 20.0%

56.2K contracts Refresh

Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 49.0% 49.0%

12.1K contracts Refresh

Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 7.3% 3.6%

54.7K contracts Refresh

Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 13.1%

27.0K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026? Yes refers to: Yes	71.0%	60.2%	Med	—	Refresh
When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	24.0%	12.3%	High	64	Refresh
Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	10.0%	13.3%	Med	80	Refresh
Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? Yes refers to: Before 2027	10.0%	5.0%	High	30	Refresh
Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	9.0%	7.8%	Med	77	Refresh
Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	13.0%	10.2%	Med	71	Refresh
NYC population change in Mamdani's first 18 months? Top outcome: Decrease 0-0.99%	48.0%	38.0%	High	76	Refresh
Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	49.0%	49.0%	Med	76	Refresh
Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	7.3%	3.6%	High	29	Refresh
Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	15.0%	13.1%	Med	73	Refresh

Expired Markets (5)

Which states will redistrict before the midterms? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

2.4M contracts

Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

7.5K contracts

Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

73.2K contracts

Will Spencer Pratt concede? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.5K contracts

Will anyone be charged in the Minnesota daycare fraud scandal? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

66.6K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Which states will redistrict before the midterms?	—	—	Med	63
Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii?	—	—	High	32
Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law?	—	—	Med	75
Will Spencer Pratt concede?	—	—	High	—
Will anyone be charged in the Minnesota daycare fraud scandal?	—	—	High	—

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