Local Markets

2026 Midterm Election Tracker Live odds for every Senate and Governor race, the balance of power, and an interactive state map.

Active Markets (11)

When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed? Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Market Model 24.0% 12.3%

Before Jul 1, 2027

Market Model 27.0% 16.0%

4.7K contracts Refresh

Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 84.0% 70.4%

7.5K contracts Refresh

Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 13.3%

4.2K contracts Refresh

Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 30.0% 49.8%

73.2K contracts Refresh

Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 10.0% 5.0%

2.9M contracts Refresh

Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 9.0% 7.8%

29.2K contracts Refresh

Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 13.0% 10.2%

55.4K contracts Refresh

NYC population change in Mamdani's first 18 months? Kalshi

Decrease 0-0.99%

Market Model 48.0% 38.0%

Increase 0.01-0.99%

Market Model 40.0% 20.0%

56.2K contracts Refresh

Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 49.0% 49.0%

12.1K contracts Refresh

Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 7.3% 3.6%

54.7K contracts Refresh

Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model 15.0% 13.1%

27.0K contracts Refresh

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
When will Ottawa's Trump Avenue be renamed? Top outcome: Before Jan 1, 2027	24.0%	12.3%	High	76	Refresh
Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii? Yes refers to: Before Nov 1, 2026	84.0%	70.4%	High	25	Refresh
Will Maryland award the Key Bridge main span contract by summer 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	10.0%	13.3%	Med	80	Refresh
Will the Anaheim Angels naming bill become law? Yes refers to: Yes	30.0%	49.8%	Med	80	Refresh
Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? Yes refers to: Before 2027	10.0%	5.0%	High	25	Refresh
Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	9.0%	7.8%	Med	78	Refresh
Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	13.0%	10.2%	Med	77	Refresh
NYC population change in Mamdani's first 18 months? Top outcome: Decrease 0-0.99%	48.0%	38.0%	High	70	Refresh
Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	49.0%	49.0%	Med	76	Refresh
Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027	7.3%	3.6%	High	31	Refresh
Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes	15.0%	13.1%	Med	65	Refresh

Expired Markets (2)

Will Spencer Pratt concede? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

19.5K contracts

Will anyone be charged in the Minnesota daycare fraud scandal? Kalshi

Yes

Market Model — —

66.6K contracts

Event	Market	Model	Conf	TI
Will Spencer Pratt concede?	—	—	High	—
Will anyone be charged in the Minnesota daycare fraud scandal?	—	—	High	—

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