Before July
Market Model 1.0% 0.5%
Before 2027
Market Model 10.0% 5.0%
Local Markets
Active Markets (8)
Yes
Market Model 67.0% 72.8%
Yes
Market Model 9.0% 7.8%
Yes
Market Model 13.0% 10.2%
Decrease 0-0.99%
Market Model 48.0% 38.0%
Increase 0.01-0.99%
Market Model 40.0% 20.0%
Yes
Market Model 49.0% 49.0%
Yes
Market Model 7.3% 3.6%
Yes
Market Model 15.0% 13.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota? Top outcome: Before July | 1.0% | 0.5% | High | $2,877,365.04 | Refresh |
| Will Spencer Pratt concede? Yes refers to: Before Jul 1, 2026 | 67.0% | 72.8% | High | $19,515.06 | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani tax incomes over $1M before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 9.0% | 7.8% | Med | $29,179.21 | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani raise corporate taxes before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 13.0% | 10.2% | Med | $55,390.81 | Refresh |
| NYC population change in Mamdani's first 18 months? Top outcome: Decrease 0-0.99% | 48.0% | 38.0% | High | $56,174.67 | Refresh |
| Jessica Tisch out as NYPD commissioner before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 49.0% | 49.0% | Med | $12,066.89 | Refresh |
| Jacob Frey out as Mayor of Minneapolis? Yes refers to: Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7.3% | 3.6% | High | $54,735.91 | Refresh |
| Will Mamdani establish a Department of Community Safety before 2027? Yes refers to: Yes | 15.0% | 13.1% | Med | $27,025.84 | Refresh |
Expired Markets (1)
Yes
Market Model 72.0% 69.1%
| Event | Market | Model | Conf | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will anyone be charged in the Minnesota daycare fraud scandal? Yes refers to: Before Sep 1, 2026 | 72.0% | 69.1% | High | $66,572.21 |
