Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
Short Answer
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
- Yes: New York enacted a statewide executive moratorium on July 14, 2026.
- Yes: Another state may enact a functional statewide pause before year-end.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 71.0% | 60.2% | States may enact moratoriums due to increasing concerns over energy consumption and environmental impact of data centers. |
Current Context
Sources (19)
- 1Data Center Moratorium Tracker Update: September 28, 2026 · SAVRNsavrn.com
- 2Which States Are Banning Data Centers?ncsl.org
- 3New Hampshire Legislative Service Requests (LSR's)gc.nh.gov
- 4Current Legislation Searchgc.nh.gov
- 5Texas pauses environmental permit approval for data centerstexastribune.org
- 6U.S. Data Center Moratorium Tracker & Mapsavrn.com
- 7Everyone Says Datacenter Moratoriums Are Killing the US Buildout. We Mapped All 300 of Themnewsletter.semianalysis.com
- 8What states have banned or paused data center development? – Deseret Newsdeseret.com
- 9Data center moratoriums gain ground in states and cities - Route Fiftyroute-fifty.com
- 10The data center boom meets resistance in Maine as lawmakers pass a yearlong freeze | WBUR Newswbur.org
- 11STATE OF NEW JERSEYpub.njleg.state.nj.us
- 12Ayotte opposes potential Bow data center, plans to propose statewide moratorium | New Hampshire Public Radionhpr.org
- 13In policy shift, Republicans say they'll pursue a moratorium on AI data centers in NH - Concord Monitorconcordmonitor.com
- 14Governor Ayotte proposes data center moratorium - Monadnock Ledger-Transcriptledgertranscript.com
- 15Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?polymarket.com
- 16Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026? — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 17Will at least one U.S. state enact a binding statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers before 2027? - Manifold Markets Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 18How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026? — Kalshi Prediction Market Odds | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
- 19State Data Center Policy 101: 2026 Legislative Guidemultistate.us
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 October 02, 2026: 68.0pp spike
Price increased from 3.0% to 71.0%
Outcome: Yes
📉 September 26, 2026: 50.0pp drop
Price decreased from 53.0% to 3.0%
Outcome: Yes
📉 September 24, 2026: 18.0pp drop
Price decreased from 71.0% to 53.0%
Outcome: Yes
📉 September 21, 2026: 8.0pp drop
Price decreased from 79.0% to 71.0%
Outcome: Yes
Sources (5)
- 1Texas Governor Abbott Freezes All TCEQ Data Center Permits Pending ERCOT Auditdatacenterdigest.net
- 2Newsroom - Governor's Officeapps.oregon.gov
- 3Texas pauses environmental permit approval for data centerstexastribune.org
- 4Where are authorities restricting data centres amid AI boom? | Reutersreuters.com
- 5New York becomes the first state to impose a data center moratorium | Reutersreuters.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves to YES if another U.S. state enacts a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026. Conversely, it resolves to NO if no such moratorium is enacted by that date. No specific settlement conditions beyond the resolution deadline are detailed in the provided information.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | $0.76 | $0.29 | 71% |
Market Discussion
As of October 3, 2026, the prediction-market consensus indicates a strong likelihood (83–84%) that no additional U.S. state will enact a statewide data-center moratorium by December 31 [1]. This outlook follows New York's 2026 executive order, which created the first statewide moratorium [2]. Trader commentary identifies Texas, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri as potential late-year catalysts, but efforts there appear to be local, stalled, or deferred, rather than qualifying as enacted statewide moratoriums [3]; likewise, legislative proposals in other states, though active as of September 15, do not yet constitute enacted law [4].
Sources (4)
- 1Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?polymarket.com
- 2First Statewide Moratorium on New Hyperscale Data Centers Launched by Governor Kathy Hochul | Governor Kathy Hochul | New York Stategovernor.ny.gov
- 3Texas enacts data center moratorium by...?polymarket.com
- 4Which States Are Banning Data Centers?ncsl.org
5. What specific legislative or executive pathways remain for New Hampshire to enact a data center moratorium before January 1, 2027?
| Primary statewide moratorium pathway | Immediate executive order from Gov. Ayotte [1] |
|---|---|
| HB 1265 Status | Failed (INEXPEDIENT TO LEGISLATE) [2][3] |
| SB 439 Status | Died (session ended August 19, 2026) [4][5] |
Sources (11)
- 1Controversy over New Hampshire data centers intensifiesthedartmouth.com
- 2Bill_Statusgc.nh.gov
- 3New Hampshire Legislative Service Requests (LSR's)gc.nh.gov
- 4Current Legislation Searchgc.nh.gov
- 5https://gc.nh.gov/bill_status/legacy/bs2016/billText.aspx?id=1435&sy=2026&txtFormat=htmlgc.nh.gov
- 6'Small dogs still bite': Proposed micro data center elicits...concordmonitor.com
- 7Bow residents worry data center could replace former...nhpr.org
- 8LSR 2027-0002 (HB): Moratorium on new data centerslsr.citizeninarepublic.com
- 9Data Center Moratoriums and Restrictionselectricchoice.com
- 10Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 11Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026? - Kalshi noteringen | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
6. What are the primary economic and grid-stability arguments cited against statewide data center bans in states like Virginia and Georgia during 2026?
| Foregone annual sales-tax revenue cited in Virginia debate | $1.3 billion [1][2][3] |
|---|---|
| Dominion contracted data-center demand | 47 GW [4][2][3] |
| Dominion 2022 filing demand | 2.8 GW [4][2][3] |
Sources (5)
- 1Virginia has a data center boon. Officials debate whether...king5.com
- 2Other states consider pulling back from data center subsidiesolis.oregonlegislature.gov
- 3End Big Tax Breaks for Data Centers: Action Guidecleanvirginia.org
- 4States rethink data centers as 'electricity hogs' strain the gridprincewilliamtimes.com
- 5technical.ly
7. How do the 2026 data center regulations in Texas and Maryland differ from New York's enacted moratorium in scope and legal force?
| New York Moratorium | Statewide executive moratorium on discretionary environmental permits for hyperscale data centers [1][2] |
|---|---|
| New York Moratorium Duration | Up to one year [1][2] |
| Texas Approach | Statewide executive-branch screening, audits, and conditional grid connection and permit controls [3][4][5][6] |
Sources (13)
- 1No 62: Establishing a Temporary Moratorium on Data Centers in New York While the State Develops Higher Standards for Data Center Development and Benefits Blueprint to Support Localities | Governor Kathy Hochul | New York Stategovernor.ny.gov
- 2First Statewide Moratorium on New Hyperscale Data Centers Launched by Governor Kathy Hochul | Governor Kathy Hochul | New York Stategovernor.ny.gov
- 3Governor Abbott Directs Comprehensive Data Center Audit | Office of the Texas Governor | Greg Abbottgov.texas.gov
- 4The Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUC) and ERCOT must conduct a comprehensive verification and audit of all data centers advancing through ERCOT’s interconnection process before any additional data centers are approved to move forward. Any project that fails to comply with the requirements set forth by the PUC and ERCOT, and by state law, must be denied connection to the Texas grid.gov.texas.gov
- 5Governor Abbott Directs TCEQ To Halt Data Center Permits | Office of the Texas Governor | Greg Abbottgov.texas.gov
- 6Governor Abbott Announces Power House Data Centers, CoreWeave And Emergent Data Centers Commit To Comply With His Data Centers Standards | Office of the Texas Governor | Greg Abbottgov.texas.gov
- 7Data Center Study Report for Planning Boardbaltimorecountymd.gov
- 8Expedited Bill 24-26, Buildingsapps.montgomerycountymd.gov
- 9Data Centers | Calvert County, MD - Official Websitecalvertcountymd.gov
- 10Data Center Moratoria Spread Across the DMV | Insightsvenable.com
- 11Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
- 12Live odds: Will another state enact a data c… | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 13Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026? - Kalshi Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
8. According to the NCSL, what was the final legislative status of all proposed data center moratorium bills across all states for the 2026 session?
| States legislatively enacting moratoriums in 2026 | 0 (NCSL [1][2]) |
|---|---|
| State entries considering moratoriums | 16 (NCSL [1]) |
| Maine's LD 307 status | Vetoed (NCSL [1][3][4][5]) |
Sources (8)
- 1Which States Are Banning Data Centers?ncsl.org
- 2Why States Are Considering Temporary Bans on New Data...ncsl.org
- 3Maine lawmakers pass nation's first moratorium on data...wjcl.com
- 4Maine's Failed Data Center Moratorium Isn't a Win. It's...milldampr.com
- 5Data Center Moratoriums and Executive Action: New York...jdsupra.com
- 6New York Hits Pause on Data Centers. Will Other States...ncsl.org
- 7Data Centers and the Electricity Grid: Frequently Asked...congress.gov
- 8ACEC: Debating Data Center Moratoriumshpac.com
9. What legislative hurdles and procedural timeline does New Jersey's recently introduced S-3388 bill face for enactment by year-end 2026?
| S-3388 (2026) Subject | Authorizes urban enterprise zone in Hoboken City (February 9) [1] |
|---|---|
| Key NJ Data Center Bill (2026) | S-3379, requiring semiannual water/energy reports (amended June 4, 2026) [2][3][4] |
| Prediction Market Chance (as of 9/26/26) | Approximately 3% for statewide moratorium by January 1, 2027 [5] |
Sources (8)
- 1Legislative Digestpub.njleg.state.nj.us
- 2S3379 1Rpub.njleg.state.nj.us
- 3S3379 2Rpub.njleg.state.nj.us
- 4S3379 1R ATU Statement 6/4/26pub.njleg.state.nj.us
- 5Live odds: Will another state enact a data c… | ElectionOddselectionodds.live
- 6Advanced Bill Searchnjleg.state.nj.us
- 7New Jersey State Legislatureballotpedia.org
- 8Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026? | Prediction Markets | Coinbasecoinbase.com
10. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: January 08, 2027
- Closes: January 01, 2027
Sources (12)
- 1Data Center Moratorium Tracker Update: September 28, 2026savrn.com
- 2Which States Are Banning Data Centers?ncsl.org
- 3Data center moratoriums are not a substitute for oversightbrookings.edu
- 4Environmental Permitting for Data Centers Paused in Texasnatlawreview.com
- 5STATE OF NEW JERSEYpub.njleg.state.nj.us
- 6Data center-related ballot measures, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 7A11560 Summaryassembly.state.ny.us
- 8Data Center Moratoriums by State: Tracker and Statistics (2026) - Programs.comprograms.com
- 92026D09430 09430DMS:CDM 05/11/26 #12senatormuth.com
- 10Data Center Moratorium Bills Are Spreading in 2026goodjobsfirst.org
- 11HOUSE BILL NO. 5882legislature.mi.gov
- 12Data Center Ballot Measures: 28 Localities Vote in Novembermultistate.us