Short Answer

Arizona is likely to have at least 188 data centers by year-end, driven by continued market growth, a significant pipeline of tax-approved projects, and short listing lag times in Data Center Map's count. The market prices this outcome at 99.0%.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

A price spike on November 13, 2026, was the market's primary move. The probability jumped 73 percentage points, from 26% to 99%, following a report from Cleanview. The report identified 208 data centers in Arizona, including those operating, under construction, and planned. This figure exceeds the "at least 196" threshold for the market contract, causing traders to price the outcome as near-certain.
The initial low probability of 26% reflected significant discrepancies among data center trackers. Counts varied widely, with Data Center Map listing 182 facilities, Cleanview counting 208 buildings, and Aterio tracking 366 facilities. While the market is set to resolve based on Data Center Map's official count at year-end, the market treated the Cleanview report as a decisive piece of new information, repricing the contract almost to completion.
  • At least 162 data centers are likely given 107 approved tax-break applications.
  • The approved applications precede a tax program pause, potentially securing significant investment.
  • Reaching 196 facilities appears challenged by specific Data Center Map listing criteria.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
At least 188 99.0% 90.7% Arizona's data center market shows continued growth with tax-approved projects and short listing lag time.
At least 196 85.0% 88.5% Achieving this threshold requires Data Center Map to list many additional facilities within a short timeframe.
At least 180 86.0% 92.1% Arizona's data center market shows continued growth with tax-approved projects and short listing lag time.

Current Context

Arizona data center counts vary significantly across different trackers. Data Center Map currently lists 182 facilities in Arizona (107 operational, 16 under construction, 53 planned, 6 inactive) with 12.4 GW of reported power [1]. In contrast, Aterio tracked 366 Arizona data centers (89 operational, 33 under construction, 199 announced, 45 land bank/delayed/cancelled) with a 24,934 MW pipeline capacity across 321 projects as of November 14, 2026 [2]. Cleanview, as of November 13, 2026, counted 208 buildings on 61 campuses (79 operating, 28 under construction, 101 planned) [3]. The Kalshi market (KXAZDATACENTERS), which settles on Data Center Map's Arizona listing count at December 31, 2026, shows "at least 180" trading at 88% and "at least 196" at 85% as of November 14, 2026 [4].
New projects highlight escalating power and water demands. SpaceX (SpaceXAI) announced between November 5–12, 2026, plans for a ~$50 billion, 747-acre, nine-building AI compute campus near Willcox Playa, Cochise County, projecting up to 6 GW demand and a 24 GWh battery storage system [5]. Construction could start March 2027 if the December 9, 2026 Planning & Zoning hearing approves [5]. Utilities report nearly 100 existing data centers are already straining the power grid; SRP is building approximately 2.4 GW of transmission for 10 queued data center customers with an estimated 2 GW load [6]. Cleanview estimates 95 planned projects would triple current state data center energy use, while AG Kris Mayes identified at least 40 likely projects that would double existing demand and called for a statewide one-year pause on hyperscale AI data center approvals [7]. Pima County's health impact study (September 2026) found large data centers could worsen air quality and strain water supplies; Project Blue (300 acres, 10 buildings) plans to use approximately 143 million gallons of reclaimed water annually for cooling [8].
Regulatory actions reflect growing concerns over resource strain. Governor Hobbs' three-year moratorium on data center sales tax exemption took effect July 1, 2026 [9]. Pima County voted on August 11, 2026, to draft a 120-day moratorium, announced September 22, 2026, with permanent zoning policy due by December 10, 2026 [9]. This local moratorium does not qualify for the Polymarket on a statewide data center moratorium, which stood at Yes 26% / No 74% as of November 14, 2026 [10]. Amidst these regulatory discussions, Glendale approved Project Eagle (700 MW, $36 billion) rezoning October 29, 2026, with construction starting November 2026 and the first building targeted for 2028 [7]. Casa Grande approved the 954-acre Grande Valley campus on October 1, 2026 [7]. Expert views from UA chief AI/data science officer David Ebert (August 12, 2026) suggest computing demand will outrun construction for at least five years, with developers providing up-front water/power estimates and closed-loop cooling offering near water-neutrality [11]. The Phoenix Business Journal Table of Experts (October 30, 2026) identified power/transmission interconnection queues and Colorado River allocation cuts (~27–30%) as major gaps, with liquid cooling, renewables, and battery storage as mitigation trends [12].
Sources (12)
  1. 1Arizona Data Center Map: 182 Sites, 12.4 GWdcmap.us
  2. 2Data Centers in Arizona: 366 facilitiesaterio.io
  3. 3Data Centers in Arizona: Map of AI Data Centers Being Builtcleanview.co
  4. 4Number of data centers in Arizona this year? (December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  5. 5SpaceXAI plans data center in Arizona, Musk's firm claims it will have 6GW capacity - DCDdatacenterdynamics.com
  6. 6Arizona utilities scramble to keep up as data center boom drives rapid expansion of the power gridkjzz.org
  7. 7Data centers in Arizona: projects, local fights and the latest newsdatacenterdebate.org
  8. 81 year after approving Project Blue, Pima County releases data center health impact studykjzz.org
  9. 9County to revisit data center NDAs, environmental reviewstucson.com
  10. 10Polymarketpolymarket.com
  11. 11Pinal County Data Centers: UA Expert Briefs Supervisors - Pinal Postpinalpost.com
  12. 12Table of Experts: Mission critical development - Phoenix Business Journalbizjournals.com

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 November 13, 2026: 79.0pp spike

Price increased from 6.0% to 85.0%

Outcome: At least 196

What happened: The primary driver of the price spike was the release of traditional news on November 13, 2026. Cleanview reported 208 data centers in Arizona (including operating, under construction, and planned), which directly confirmed the "At least 196" outcome for the market [1]. This was powerfully reinforced by SpaceX's concurrent announcement of a massive $50B, 6GW supercomputing campus in Cochise County, Arizona, underscoring significant expansion [2][3][4]. Social media activity from key figures or viral narratives were not identified as drivers for this price movement.
Sources (4)
  1. 1Data Centers in Arizona: Map of AI Data Centers Being Builtcleanview.co
  2. 2SpaceX Unveils $74B Data Center Plans In Texas, Arizonabisnow.com
  3. 3SpaceX's $74 billion AI ambition meets reality: Two supercomputing campuses face a massive test of power, hardware, permitting - SUPERCOMPUTING NEWSsupercomputingonline.com
  4. 4SpaceX plans 6 GW AI data center in Arizona | Techlantisthetechlantis.com

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

This contract resolves to "YES" if the total number of data centers in Arizona is at least 180 by the end of the year. It resolves to "NO" if the total number of data centers in Arizona is less than 180. The maximum payout date for this market is January 7, 2027.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
At least 188 $0.99 $0.84 99%
At least 180 $0.99 $0.13 86%
At least 196 $0.96 $0.98 85%

Market Discussion

As of November 13, 2026, the contract's designated settlement source, Data Center Map, listed 197 Arizona data centers, exceeding the 188-or-more market threshold [1][2][3]. Trader analysis favors a "YES" outcome, as a net loss of at least 10 listings would be required by the December 31, 2026 settlement date for a "NO" [1][3]. However, other sources report differing total counts for Arizona data centers, and public commentary advises caution regarding the accuracy of third-party directory listings [4][5][2][6].

Sources (6)
  1. 1Will Arizona have at least 188 data centers this year? | Forecasting Agentforecast.agenticlearning.ai
  2. 2USA Data Centers - 5144 Facilities from 1936 Operatorsdatacentermap.com
  3. 3Number of Data Centers in Arizona This Year | Market | PredictStreetadipredictstreet.com
  4. 4Arizona's data center boom: The biggest projects are still aheadabc15.com
  5. 5Data Centers in Arizona: Map of AI Data Centers Being Builtcleanview.co
  6. 6Arizona has the 4th and 7th largest operating data centers in the US, Texas has the rest. | Mark Lewislinkedin.com

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 73 Good

Largest single print on KXAZDATACENTERS-26DEC31-T188 carried 41% of its $3,454 tape (window is 82% of 24h flow)

Integrity risk· Large trades

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score78Good

Market integrity is low (68), but Integrity averages all three scores, so the other two pull it up. Only a critically low score would cap the total.

Trade quality20% of score52Caution

Includes the cost to trade: a $100 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score73Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
68Caution

Outcome can be influenced

Large tradesTrade signals · high confidence

Largest single print on KXAZDATACENTERS-26DEC31-T188 carried 41% of its $3,454 tape (window is 82% of 24h flow)

Screened clean
Thin-volume movesMoves carried volume Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
65Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

3 contracts · worst first · 3 settled or closed — not scored

At least 18865
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

At least 19665
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

At least 180—
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
88Confirmed

Moves came with real volume

3 contracts · worst first · 3 settled or closed — not scored

At least 19687
Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

At least 18891
Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

At least 180—
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

3 contracts · worst first · 3 settled or closed — not scored

At least 188100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 180100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 196100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
52Caution

Order book is thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 65 (notional-weighted across 2 scored legs)

$100 order: book too thin to fill

$1,000 order: book too thin to fill

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

3 settled or closed — not scored

At least 188Primary65Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality91Rule clarity100
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
91 · Confirmed · high confidence

Volume confirms the move over 6h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 180–Market scoreLiquidity–Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why this score
Liquidity
No recent trading to measure

No recent trading to measure

Move quality
Only 0 candle closes

Only 0 candle closes

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
At least 19665Market scoreLiquidity65Move quality87Rule clarity100
Why 65
Liquidity
65 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Move quality
87 · Confirmed · medium confidence

Volume confirms the move over 24h

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Nov 14, 2026

6. Could Regulatory Actions by AG Mayes or Pima County Stall Data Center Projects Before the Dec. 31 Deadline?

AZ AG/Pima County Actions 2026None identified stalling data center projects [1][2][3]
Manifold Market Statewide Pause'No' priced at 79.8% (for second US state pause in 2026) [1][2]
Polymarket State Moratorium'Yes' priced at 28% (for any state moratorium by Dec 31) [3][4]
No specific regulatory actions by Arizona AG Mayes or Pima County concerning data center projects have been identified for 2026 [1][2][3]. Available information does not list any such rulemaking, lawsuits, or moratorium news for 2026; searches for this type of concrete evidence consistently returned prediction-market pages instead [1][2][3].
Prediction markets indicate low probabilities for new statewide data center pauses in 2026. As of mid-October 2026, a Manifold market querying whether a second US state would impose a statewide pause on new data centers in 2026 priced 'No' at 79.8% [1][2]. Similarly, another Polymarket-listed market asking if any state would enact a data center moratorium by December 31 priced 'Yes' at only 28%, with other state-specific moratorium markets also showing low probabilities for their nearest-term outcomes [3][4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1Will a second US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers in 2026? - Manifold Markets Quoten | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  2. 2Will a second US state impose a statewide pause on new data centers in 2026? - Manifold Markets oranları | CoinRithmcoinrithm.com
  3. 3data - BetCryptobetcrypto.now
  4. 4Tech & AI Prediction Markets — Live Odds | Frenzy Capitalfrenzycap.com

7. How Do Data Center Trackers Like Data Center Map and Aterio Differ in Classifying Arizona Projects?

Data Center Map ClassificationIncludes announced, under-construction, or operational facilities [1][2]
Aterio ClassificationDiffers from Data Center Map's approach [1][2]
Aterio Classification DetailsNot detailed in found sources [1][2]
Different data center trackers use distinct classification methods. The methodologies employed by trackers such as Data Center Map and Aterio in identifying data centers can result in varying counts for a given region, such as Arizona [1][2]. This divergence in classification underscores that the selection of a specific tracker is a crucial factor when estimating the actual number of data centers in operation [1][2].
Data Center Map's criteria for classifying facilities are clearly defined. This tracker includes announced, under-construction, and operational sites when determining which facilities qualify as data centers [1][2]. In contrast, while Aterio is known to employ a distinct classification approach that differs from Data Center Map's, the available sources do not provide specific details regarding its methodology [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Number of data centers in Arizona this year? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  2. 2Number of Data Centers in Arizona This Year | Market | PredictStreetadipredictstreet.com

8. What Is the Viability of the 69 Projects Currently 'Planned' or 'Under Construction' on Data Center Map?

Unverified Projects69 projects (reported 'Planned' or 'Under Construction') [1][2][3]
Nov. 14 Snapshot Market Price (at least 180)93% for at least 180 (Nov. 14 snapshot) [2]
Nov. 14 Snapshot Market Price (at least 196)48.5% for at least 196 (Nov. 14 snapshot) [2]
Insufficient information prevents evaluating the viability of 69 projects currently 'Planned' or 'Under Construction' on Data Center Map [1][2][3]. No source verifies the current status of these projects or provides evidence to assess their individual probability of completion by year-end [1][2][3]. The available evidence supports only the definition of the Kalshi contract for the 'Number of data centers in Arizona this year?' market and a dated market snapshot, not an independent estimate of project viability [1][2][3]. Consequently, the claim regarding the 69 projects and their potential implied contribution to the market outcome should be considered unverified, and the total threshold market cannot serve as a proxy for their completion rate [1][2][3].
Kalshi contract details and market prices offer a limited perspective on project outcomes. The Kalshi contract is based on the whole-number Arizona count displayed by Data Center Map at a specified measurement time, and later edits to the directory do not change the measured result [2][3]. A Nov. 14 snapshot of market prices showed 93% for at least 180 data centers, 56.5% for at least 188, and 48.5% for at least 196, although the official year-end listing count remains unknown [2].
Sources (3)
  1. 1Number of data centers in Arizona this year? Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
  2. 2Number of data centers in Arizona this year? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  3. 3Number of Data Centers in Arizona This Year | Market | PredictStreetadipredictstreet.com

9. What Is the Typical Lag Time Between an Arizona Data Center's Approval and Its Listing on Data Center Map?

Lag time, Arizona data center approval to Data Center Map listingNot formally documented [1][2]
Lag time, public announcement to Data Center Map listingDays to weeks [1][2]
Data Center Map inclusion criteriaIncludes announced and planned data centers, not solely approved or operating ones [1][2]
No documented formal lag exists for Arizona data center listings. There is no documented formal lag time between the approval of an Arizona data center and its subsequent listing on Data Center Map [1][2]. Data Center Map operates as a crowdsourced and curated directory that includes not only approved or operating data centers, but also those that are still in announced or planned stages [1][2].
Data Center Map listings typically follow public announcements quickly. Facilities are generally added to Data Center Map within days to weeks following their public announcement, indicating a relatively short period from a public announcement to its directory inclusion [1][2]. The approval process for a data center frequently occurs either before or after its listing on Data Center Map, rather than being a mandatory prerequisite for its inclusion in the directory [1][2].
Sources (2)
  1. 1Number of data centers in Arizona this year? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  2. 2Number of data centers in Arizona this year? (December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com

10. What Impact Will the Cochise County SpaceXAI Hearing Have on Arizona's 2026 Data Center Count?

Cochise County hearing statusNo SpaceXAI hearing with a scheduled ruling found [1]
Zoning Commission meeting dateMarch 11, 2026 [2]
Market resolution criteriaData Center Map Arizona directory count by December 31, 2026 [3][4][5][2]
No specific Cochise County SpaceXAI hearing with a ruling was identified. The research did not identify any Cochise County SpaceXAI hearing with a scheduled ruling [1]. Instead, the Cochise County, AZ Planning and Zoning Commission initiated discussions on March 11, 2026, in Bisbee, focusing on zoning 'guardrails' for large-scale data centers [2]. This activity is characterized as a local regulatory process, rather than a specific SpaceX hearing with a defined ruling date. The 'SpaceXAI' designation refers to xAI/QTS filings [2][1].
The market's resolution relies on Arizona's data center count. Specifically, the market's outcome is directly tied to the Data Center Map Arizona directory count as of December 31, 2026 [3][4][5][2]. It is considered improbable that a county-level zoning hearing would significantly alter this particular directory count [3][5][2].
Other factors, including tax exemptions, minimally affect the data center count. While Arizona's 2026 budget does include a three-year pause on new data center tax exemptions, this measure does not directly impact existing data centers or their inclusion in the Data Center Map listing count [6]. Consequently, the market's implied range of approximately 180-196 is cited as a more reliable predictor for the 2026 data center count [3][5][2].
Sources (6)
  1. 1Data center projects tracker: proposals & outcomesaigridwatch.com
  2. 2Cochise County P&Z to begin discussion on guardrails for data centers Wednesday | Cochise County | myheraldreview.commyheraldreview.com
  3. 3Number of data centers in Arizona this year? | PredictPediapredictpedia.com
  4. 4Number of Data Centers in Arizona This Year | Market | PredictStreetadipredictstreet.com
  5. 5Number of data centers in Arizona this year? (December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET): Odds, Chart & News | 4Search Predictions4search.com
  6. 6Data Centers: Weekly Briefing // Jun 8 - 12, 2026writing.strisker.com

11. What Could Change the Odds

Key Catalysts

The regulatory environment for Arizona data centers faces near-term shifts. Governor Hobbs signed a three-year pause on the Computer Data Center tax program, effective July 1, 2026, through June 30, 2029, on June 13, 2026 [1][2]. Prior to this moratorium, 107 of 113 defensive tax-break applications were approved between June 15 and June 30, 2026, potentially securing a minimum of $18.3B in-state investment if all projects proceed [3][1]. Attorney General Kris Mayes and legislative Democrats support a possible statewide development moratorium, though Governor Hobbs has disavowed such a measure [1][2][4].
Upcoming decisions and project timelines present additional catalysts. The Arizona Corporation Commission faces a December 31, 2026, deadline to vote on the APS rate case (Docket E-01345A-25-0105), which proposes a ~47% increase for the Extra High Load Factor class serving data centers; the ALJ's Recommended Opinion is expected late November 2026 [5][6]. SpaceX has a proposed 6 GW, nine-building AI data center near Tombstone, with written comments due November 27, 2026, and a public hearing on December 9, 2026; construction could start March 2027 if approved [7][8]. Separately, Glendale approved annexation and rezoning for a 747-acre, nine-building SpaceX AI campus on October 29, 2026, with construction starting November 2026 [8]. Project Blue, Pima County's first hyperscale data center, began construction April 24, 2026, targeting its first building online in 2027 and full campus operation by 2028 [9]. Additionally, AG Mayes is seeking a rehearing of the TEP 10-year energy supply agreement approved December 3, 2025 [6].

Key Dates & Catalysts

  • Strike Date: January 01, 2027
  • Expiration: January 07, 2027
  • Closes: January 07, 2027
Sources (9)
  1. 1The Changing Landscape For Data Centers: US Multistate Executive Actions Enact Sweeping Regulatory Guardrails (UPDATED) | Ashurst Perkins Coie - JDSuprajdsupra.com
  2. 2Arizona Corporation Commission | Arizona Capitol Timesazcapitoltimes.com
  3. 3Arizona approved 107 data center tax breaks before moratoriumcoppercourier.com
  4. 4Data center regulation could be first test of Arizona’s new Democratic trifecta | Arizona Capitol Timesazcapitoltimes.com
  5. 5Phoenix APS rate case enters recommendation phase: key dates for your bill | Interactive News111things.com
  6. 6Data centers in Arizona · SignalDatasignaldata.org
  7. 7SpaceX hid behind another name in the Arizona desert, and now it’s going bigteslarati.com
  8. 8Data centers in Arizona: projects, local fights and the latest newsdatacenterdebate.org
  9. 9Construction Begins on Project Blue, Pima County’s First Hyperscale Data Centerconstructionreviewonline.com

13. Historical Resolutions

Historical Resolutions: 3 markets in this series

Outcomes: 3 resolved YES, 0 resolved NO

Recent resolutions:

  • KXAZDATACENTERS-26DEC31-T172: YES (Oct 22, 2026)
  • KXAZDATACENTERS-26DEC31-T166: YES (Oct 22, 2026)
  • KXAZDATACENTERS-26DEC31-T162: YES (Oct 22, 2026)