Alaska Senate election: number of rounds 2026
Short Answer
A single round in the 2026 Alaska Senate election is impossible because neither Mary Peltola (48.17%) nor Dan S. Sullivan (47.88%) secured a majority of votes in the initial count as of November 7, 2026. The market prices this outcome at 17.0%; the model forecasts 0.0%.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's sharp decline corresponds directly with the release of partial election results. After the November 3 election, vote tallies reported as of November 7 show neither leading candidate securing the 50% needed for a first-round victory under Alaska's ranked-choice system. With 74% of votes counted, Mary Peltola (D) holds 48.17% and Dan S. Sullivan (R) has 47.88%. The price action, falling from 25.0% before the election to 4.0% on November 7, indicates traders interpret a "YES" outcome as a single-round result. The near-certainty of a ranked-choice tabulation after the initial count made that outcome highly improbable, causing the market price to collapse.
The combined vote share of minor candidates, including Gerald Heikes (2.27%), ensured that neither Peltola nor Sullivan could clear the majority threshold with first-choice votes alone. The market's pre-election pricing had assigned a roughly one-in-four chance of a single-round decision. The initial returns invalidated that possibility, confirming the election would proceed to an instant-runoff count and driving the contract's value toward zero.
- Three rounds appear likely, representing two eliminations in the four-candidate RCV.
- A single round is impossible; neither candidate secured a first-round majority.
- Unofficial RCV tabulation published November 4, 2026, indicated four rounds were required.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4.0% | 11.6% | Unknown impact of outstanding ballots leaves a theoretical path for resolution in two rounds. |
| 1 | 17.0% | 0.0% | No candidate secured a majority in the initial count, making a single-round victory impossible. |
| 3 | 68.0% | 88.4% | A two-elimination scenario is a plausible progression for a four-candidate ranked-choice election. |
Current Context
Mary Peltola (D) holds a narrow lead in the uncalled Alaska U.S. Senate race. As of November 7, 2026, with 74% of votes counted, Peltola leads incumbent Dan S. Sullivan (R) by 637 votes, 102,962 (48.17%) to 102,325 (47.88%) [1][2][3]. Gerald Heikes (R) has 4,846 votes (2.27%), and Dan J. Sullivan Jr. received approximately 3,600 votes [2][4]. Alaska's ranked-choice voting (RCV) tabulation is scheduled to commence on November 18, 2026, in Juneau, following the final ballot count [4][5]. Vote count updates are anticipated on November 10, 13, and 18. Final certification is planned by November 25 [4][5][6]. Mailed absentee ballots must be received by November 13, and overseas ballots by November 18 [4][5].
Ranked-choice voting mechanics and namesake candidates complicate the final outcome. The RCV process will eliminate the candidate with the fewest votes, currently Gerald Heikes, transferring those ballots to voters' next ranked choices until one candidate secures a majority (50%+1) [2][4][5][7]. With four candidates, up to three rounds of elimination may be needed, though the exact number depends on the disposition of the estimated 50,000-75,000 outstanding ballots [2][4][5][7]. The presence of Dan J. Sullivan Jr., who shares the incumbent's name, presents a complicating factor; he received approximately 3,600 votes [2][4][8]. University of Alaska Anchorage Professor Forrest Nabors noted that combining both Sullivans' votes would exceed Peltola's current count [2][4][8]. The Trump administration and Gov. Mike Dunleavy have not ruled out blocking certification to investigate potential voter confusion [9][10]. Both Peltola and Sullivan campaigns claim victory [2][11]. The Associated Press has not called the race [2][11].
Prediction markets and analysts favor Peltola, despite historical Republican strength in Alaska. Polymarket prices Mary Peltola at 98% to win the Alaska Senate seat as of November 7, 2026, with Dan Sullivan at 2%, on $7.7 million in total volume [12][5]. Kalshi prices Peltola at 98 cents [13]. Sabato's Crystal Ball shifted the race from 'Toss-up' to 'Leans Democrat' in October 2026 [14]. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ model gave Peltola a 60% chance of winning as of November 3 [15], while the Cook Political Report maintains a 'Toss-up' rating [16]. Pre-election polls showed Peltola with a slight lead: AtlasIntel (Oct 28-Nov 1) Peltola +6, NYT/Siena (Oct 23-30) Peltola +1, and Alaska Survey Research (Oct 26-29) Peltola +2 in both the first and final RCV rounds (51-49) [14][15][16]. Previous Alaska RCV elections have required multiple rounds and extended timelines; in 2022, Senator Lisa Murkowski won in the third round, with results called two weeks after Election Day [17][18]. The 2024 Alaska general election results were certified on November 30, after RCV tabulation on November 21 [19]. Alaska has not elected a Democratic U.S. Senator since 2014 [14][16][20]. The outcome contributes to the 2026 midterm elections, where Democrats aim to net four Senate seats for a majority, identifying Alaska as a promising target [14][16].
Sources (20)
- 1Alaska U.S. Senate Election Resultsnytimes.com
- 2637-vote gap keeps Alaska Senate race un-called | Anchorage Gazetteanchoragegazette.com
- 32026 Alaska US Senate | Live Election Resultsvotes.decisiondeskhq.com
- 46 takeaways from Alaska's electionalaskapublic.org
- 5Alaska Senate Race 2026: Odds, Candidates and Key Datesvantagepredictions.com
- 62026 Midterm Elections: Every Major Race — Political.orgpolitical.org
- 7Electoral systems in Alaska - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 8What's next for Alaska's unusual US Senate racereuters.com
- 9Dan Sullivan Jr. deemed ineligible to run for Alaska Senate seatthehill.com
- 10Alaska Supreme Court rules Dan J. Sullivan is a legitimate US Senate candidatejuneauindependent.com
- 11Alaska U.S. Senate Election 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
- 12https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-winnerpolymarket.com
- 13Alaska 2026 Elections: Senate, Governor & House Racespolling-desk.com
- 14Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Alaska Senate race to ‘leans Democrat’thehill.com
- 15Who will win Alaska Senate? | The Hill and DDHQelections2026.thehill.com
- 16Alaska U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com
- 17Begich, Bjorkman, Vance Declared Winners After RCV Tabulation; Ballot Measure 2 Fails By 664 Votes - Radio Kenairadiokenai.com
- 18Murkowski, Peltola win reelection bids - Roll Callrollcall.com
- 19Alaska election results are official: Here are 5 takeaways | Alaska Beaconalaskabeacon.com
- 20Alaska Was Safe Trump Territory. Now Republicans Are on Defensenewsweek.com
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📉 November 07, 2026: 61.0pp drop
Price decreased from 78.0% to 17.0%
Outcome: 1
What happened: The primary driver of the 61.0 percentage point drop for the "1 round" outcome on November 07, 2026, was the emergence of preliminary ranked-choice voting (RCV) analysis indicating the likelihood of multiple tabulation rounds [1]. Preliminary RCV data from RCVis specifically showed a path to 4 rounds of tabulation [2]. This analysis, coupled with reports from November 5-6, 2026, that Mary Peltola held a narrow first-choice lead but projections suggested Dan Sullivan could gain after RCV transfers [3][4][5], strongly shifted market expectations away from a single-round resolution [1]. Social media was not a primary driver, as no specific posts directly addressing the number of RCV rounds on or around this date were found.
📉 November 06, 2026: 15.0pp drop
Price decreased from 95.0% to 80.0%
Outcome: 1
What happened: The primary driver of the 15.0 percentage point drop in the "1" outcome for "Alaska Senate election: number of rounds" on November 06, 2026, was a Truth Social post from President Trump [6][7]. On November 5-6, 2026, Trump demanded that votes for minor candidates Dan J. Sullivan and Gerald Heikes be transferred to Dan S. Sullivan [6][7]. This high-profile statement, explicitly discussing vote transfers within the Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) framework, underscored that the election would not be decided in the first round, coinciding with the market's decreasing probability for the "1 round" outcome [6][7]. Social media was a primary driver, as Trump's influential post directly highlighted the RCV process and garnered significant news and social media attention, reinforcing the unlikelihood of a Round 1 victory [6][7].
📈 November 04, 2026: 48.0pp spike
Price increased from 47.0% to 95.0%
Outcome: 1
What happened: The primary driver for the 48.0 percentage point spike on November 4, 2026, for a single round outcome was likely a widespread misinterpretation of early election returns, amplified by social media. On this date, initial results showed Democrat Mary Peltola at 48.02% and Republican Dan S. Sullivan at 47.73%, both below the 50% threshold needed for a single round in Alaska's ranked-choice system [8][9][10]. Despite requiring further tabulation, Peltola's slight lead may have been prematurely interpreted as an outright win, a narrative potentially spread and accelerated by the highly active social media environment surrounding this critical and uncertain race [9][11][12]. Social media was a contributing accelerant, facilitating the rapid dissemination of this initial, incorrect perception of the election outcome.
Sources (12)
- 1Alaska Senate election: number of rounds Odds & Predictions 2026kalshi.com
- 2Alaska 2026: U.S. Senator: Ranked Choice Voting Visualizationrcvis.com
- 3Alaska Senate: 2026 results | Electoral Meridianelectoralmeridian.org
- 4Peltola and Sullivan campaigns project wins while a quarter of ballots are outstandingalaskasnewssource.com
- 5Alaska US Senate | Alaska Newsalaskanews.com
- 6Trump weighs in on Alaska’s tight U.S. Senate race as thousands of ballots are yet to be tallied - Anchorage Daily Newsadn.com
- 7Trump asks Alaska to transfer votes in Senate race as count continuesqz.com
- 8Electoral systems in Alaska - Ballotpediaballotpedia.org
- 9Peltola takes slim lead over Sullivan, Begich solidly leads Hill in early Alaska returnsjuneauindependent.com
- 10Election Results Mapelections.alaska.gov
- 11Live Alaska Senate election results: Peltola, Sullivan nearly evenusatoday.com
- 12Sullivan and Peltola remain neck-and-neck in Alaska Senate racewashingtonpost.com
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This Kalshi market concerns whether the Alaska Senate election will be decided in exactly one round. A "YES" resolution occurs if the election is settled in one round, whereas a "NO" resolution implies it requires more than one round. The maximum payout date for this market is February 1, 2027, and the provided content does not detail any special settlement conditions.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | $0.66 | $0.50 | 68% |
| 1 | $0.51 | $0.80 | 17% |
| 2 | $0.27 | $0.99 | 4% |
Market Discussion
The market's consensus is that the Alaska Senate election will go to 3 rounds, with a 68% probability. This viewpoint is supported by Mary Peltola currently polling at 49.6% with 74.1% of the vote counted, indicating she is unlikely to secure over 50% in the first round under ranked-choice voting. Traders therefore see very low chances for the election to be decided in 1 round (17%) or 2 rounds (4%).
5. Trust Index
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score93Strong
Trade quality20% of score61Caution
Trust score87Strong
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
6. What is the official timeline from the Alaska Division of Elections for counting remaining ballots and conducting the RCV tabulation by the November 25 certification deadline?
| Election Day | November 3, 2026 [1] |
|---|---|
| Ranked Choice Voting Tabulation Starts | November 18, 2026 [1] |
| Election Certification Target Date | November 25, 2026 [1] |
The Alaska Division of Elections outlines a clear timeline for the 2026 General Election ballot count. Election Day is November 3, 2026 [1], with subsequent ballot result updates scheduled for November 10, November 13, and November 18, 2026 [2]. The most significant update is anticipated on November 10, covering a 7-day count of absentee, early, and questioned ballots, primarily from off-road regions [1][2]. Following this, November 13 will include absentee ballots mailed from within the U.S., and November 18 will cover overseas absentee ballots [1]. As of November 4, 2026, approximately 216,000 votes were counted in the Alaska Senate race, with an estimated 50,000 to 75,000 ballots remaining [2].
Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) tabulation commences on November 18, 2026, after the final ballot count. RCV tabulation rounds are scheduled to begin in Juneau at the Director's Office immediately following the completion of ballot counting on November 18 [3][4][5][6]. On this date, races will be reviewed to determine if any candidate has secured more than 50% of the vote; if not, the RCV tabulation process will proceed [1]. The RCV Detailed Report is slated for publication upon completion of the tabulation on November 18, with the actual RCV tally estimated to take approximately one minute per race [1][6]. All election results will remain unofficial until the State Review Board certifies the election, which is targeted for November 25, 2026 [1][3][4][5][6].
Sources (6)
- 1MEDIA PACKET - Alaska Division of Electionselections.alaska.gov
- 26 takeaways from Alaska's electionalaskapublic.org
- 3Election Informationelections.alaska.gov
- 4Election Resultselections.alaska.gov
- 5#26general Here is an explainer graphic for Alaska's ballot counting...facebook.com
- 6Fact Sheet: Alaska's 2026 ranked choice voting electionsfairvote.org
7. What does historical RCV data from Alaska's 2022 elections suggest about the likely second-choice preferences of Gerald Heikes' voters?
| Heikes voters second choice blank (2026) | 37% (NYT analysis) [1] |
|---|---|
| Heikes voters ranked Sen. Dan S. Sullivan (2026) | 36% (NYT analysis) [1] |
| Heikes voters ranked Mary Peltola (2026) | 12% (NYT analysis) [1] |
Specific 2022 data on Heikes' voters' preferences is not directly available. Although specific historical ranked-choice voting (RCV) data for Gerald Heikes' voters' second-choice preferences from Alaska's 2022 elections is not readily accessible, an analysis of the 2026 Alaska Senate election offers insight. In that analysis, among Heikes' first-choice voters, 37% left their second choice blank. Senator Dan S. Sullivan was ranked as the second choice by 36% of these voters. Furthermore, 14% ranked Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., and 12% ranked Mary Peltola, with 1% ranking a write-in candidate, according to a New York Times analysis of the Cast Vote Record [1].
Heikes' voters generally used ranked-choice ballots effectively. Rob Richie of FairVote observed that most supporters of weaker candidates, including Gerald Heikes, effectively utilized their ranked choice ballots, with Senator Dan S. Sullivan being ranked ahead of Democrat Mary Peltola on more of these ballots [2]. An Alaska Beacon analysis further indicated that if Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan were eliminated from the ballot, Senator Dan S. Sullivan would gain 2,728 redistributed votes, compared to Mary Peltola gaining 1,868 votes. This suggests that RCV could benefit the incumbent Republican [3]. The 2022 Alaska Senate election was notable as the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska conducted under ranked-choice voting [4].
Sources (4)
- 1In Alaska, Ranked-Choice Ballots Are Unlikely to Be Enough for Dan Sullivannytimes.com
- 2Rob Richie: "Ballot Stacking Fizzles in Alaska Impact, But Potent Around...electionlawblog.org
- 3Ranked choice voting may help Republican US Sen. Dan Sullivan,...alaskabeacon.com
- 42022 United States Senate election in Alaskaen.wikipedia.org
8. How does the distribution of first-round votes among Peltola, Sullivan, and minor candidates in 2026 compare to the 2022 Alaska general election?
| 2026 Top-Two Margin | 0.30 percentage points [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| 2026 Minor-Candidate Vote Share | 3.97% [1][2][3][4] |
| 2026 Total Votes | 213,733 [2][5] |
The 2026 Alaska Senate election saw a significantly tighter top-two margin. Compared to the 2022 Alaska Senate election, the 2026 contest featured a notably narrower margin between the top two candidates and a significantly reduced vote share for minor candidates, creating a more direct two-way race [1][2][3][5]. This shift indicated a change in voter dynamics and candidate distribution between the two election cycles [1][2][3][5]. Overall voter participation also declined, with 213,733 total votes cast in 2026 compared to 263,027 in 2022 [2][5].
First-round results showed a narrow lead for Peltola over Sullivan. In the 2026 first-round ranked-choice voting, Mary Peltola (D) secured 102,962 votes (48.18%), while Dan S. Sullivan (R) received 102,325 votes (47.88%) [1][2][3][4]. This resulted in a narrow 0.30 percentage point difference, which was considerably tighter than the 0.80 percentage point margin observed in the 2022 election [1][2][3][5][4]. Minor candidates collectively garnered only 3.97% of first-round votes, a sharp decrease from the 14.0% minor-candidate vote share recorded in 2022 [1][2][3][5][4]. Specific minor candidates included Gerald Heikes (R) with 2.27% and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (No Party) with 1.7% [1][2][3][4]. A significant and controversial element of the 2026 race was the 'two Dan Sullivans' issue, with Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. reportedly being a 'sham' candidate whose recruitment involved Peltola's campaign [6][7].
Sources (7)
- 1United States Senate election in Alaska, 2026ballotpedia.org
- 22026 United States Senate election in Alaskaen.wikipedia.org
- 3Alaska U.S. Senate Election Resultsnytimes.com
- 4Alaska U.S. Senate Election 2026 Live Resultsnbcnews.com
- 5United States Senate election in Alaska, 2022ballotpedia.org
- 6Two Dan Sullivans: What to know about Alaska's Senate race as ballot...cbsnews.com
- 7Sullivan, Peltola project confidence while awaiting results in Alaska US...knoe.com
9. What legal precedent exists in Alaska for challenging election results based on ballot confusion, specifically concerning the two 'Dan Sullivan' candidates?
| Alaska Supreme Court Ruling Date | June 2026 [1][2][3][4] |
|---|---|
| DOJ Lawsuit Dismissal Date | November 1, 2026 [5][3][4] |
| Condition for Ballot Inclusion | Candidates must be included if basic filing requirements are met, even if in bad faith [2][3] |
Alaska's Supreme Court ruled that spoiler candidates must appear on ballots. In June 2026, the court mandated the inclusion of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. on the Senate ballot, affirming a superior court order that directed the Division of Elections to include him [1][2][3][4]. This decision followed a June 10, 2026, complaint from the Alaska Republican Party, which sought to remove Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., claiming he was a bad-faith spoiler candidate [1][2][3][4]. The court's ruling established that the state's elections division must include candidates on the ballot as long as they meet basic filing requirements, even if their candidacy appears to be in bad faith, because Alaska law has no prohibition on candidates running as spoilers [2][3].
A federal judge dismissed a lawsuit seeking to block election certification. U.S. District Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed the Department of Justice's (DOJ) lawsuit, United States v. Alaska, on November 1, 2026 [5][3][4]. This lawsuit, filed on October 22, 2026, sought to block the certification of the Alaska Senate election results if Senator Dan Sullivan lost [5][3][4]. The judge ruled that the government provided 'no workable plan' to segregate ballots and conduct an investigation while preserving voter secrecy [5][3][4]. Legal experts observed that while the DOJ cited the preamble to the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA) as its legal basis, the NVRA contains no requirements concerning ballot access, candidate placement, or election certification [6][4]. Additionally, the Alaska state government stated that an investigation would be impossible because ballots do not have voters' names on them and are comingled in the ballot box to protect voter privacy [3].
Sources (6)
- 1What's going on with Dan Sullivan and Dan Sullivan? The Alaska Senate...pbs.org
- 2Decoy Candidates and the Law | Cato at Liberty Blogcato.org
- 3Judge tosses DOJ lawsuit that sought to block election results if Republican...alaskapublic.org
- 4United States v. Alaskaaclu.org
- 5Judge throws out Trump admin suit seeking to stave off GOP defeat in...politico.com
- 6Citing preamble to NVRA, DOJ sues to enjoin certification of Alaska's...electionlawblog.org
10. What is the geographic and partisan lean of the estimated 50,000-75,000 outstanding ballots as of November 7, 2026?
| Outstanding Ballots Estimate | 50,000-75,000 (as of November 7, 2026) [1] |
|---|---|
| Partisan Lean of Outstanding Ballots | Democratic [1] |
| Primary Origin of Outstanding Ballots | Urban areas like Anchorage and Fairbanks [2] |
Outstanding ballots show a clear Democratic lean when analyzed by ballot type [2]. For mail-in ballots, with only 16% of expected votes reported, the margin indicates Peltola ahead by 14 to 16 points. Similarly, early in-person ballots, 86% reported, show Peltola leading by 15 points. In contrast, Election Day in-person votes, which are 91% reported, show Sullivan leading by 6 to 8 points [2].
Geographic factors also contribute to the Democratic lean of outstanding votes. These ballots predominantly come from urban centers like Anchorage and Fairbanks, and were cast through mail-in and early in-person voting methods [2]. Conversely, rural areas, which typically lean Republican, have already reported the majority of their Election Day in-person votes [2].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Peltola's August 18 primary win over incumbent Sullivan, securing 49.54% to Sullivan's 41.40%, served as a significant bullish catalyst, driving her contract from 53 cents to 58 cents on Kalshi [1]. Further supporting her position were consistent polling data, showing Peltola leading by 1-7 points in most surveys, and perceived advantages from ranked-choice voting (RCV) dynamics, building on her 2022 House victory where she successfully garnered second-choice votes [1][2][3][4][5][6]. The November 1 federal judge dismissal of a Department of Justice lawsuit seeking to block certification if Sullivan lost also removed a potential obstacle for Peltola [1][7].
Despite Peltola's strong pre-election position, several factors introduced volatility and ultimately favored Sullivan. The presence of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who secured 3,583 first-choice votes, was cited as a spoiler candidate creating voter confusion [7][8][9][10][11][12]. Significant spending, over $2 million, was directed at boosting Gerald L. Heikes, with ads encouraging voters to rank only Heikes, a strategy that carried the risk of ballot exhaustion [7][8][9][10][11][12]. On November 4, the initial tabulation showed a tight 626-vote first-round gap between Peltola (48.02%) and Sullivan (47.73%) with 7 of 401 precincts still uncounted, indicating a narrow contest [7][11]. The 15-day window for absentee ballots to arrive by mail until November 18 also prolonged uncertainty surrounding the final outcome [10][11].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: February 01, 2027
- Closes: February 01, 2027
Sources (12)
- 1Alaska Senate race odds: Peltola at 72% on Kalshi as judge rejects Trump lawsuitnews.kalshi.com
- 22026 Alaska Senate Election: Polls & Odds | Prediction Edgepredictionedge.com
- 3Post by @alaskasurvey.bsky.social — Blueskybsky.app
- 4Sullivan Vs Peltola Odds: Kalshi Moved Before The Pundits | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
- 5Sen. Dan Sullivan and Mary Peltola Advance From Alaska’s ‘Jungle Primary’ as ‘Sham’ Namesake Candidate Stirs Election Confusionpolitical.org
- 6Alaska Senate 2026: Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Mary Peltola (D) — Race Rating & Analysisuspollingdata.com
- 7Alaska Senate Odds Today: Peltola vs. Sullivan Final Lookactionnetwork.com
- 8https://polymarket.com/event/alaska-senate-election-winnerpolymarket.com
- 9Alaska Senate Race 2026 Odds | OddsShopperoddsshopper.com
- 10Alaskans wait for more votes to come in for Senate, governor's races | AP Newsapnews.com
- 11Alaska 2026: U.S. Senator: Ranked Choice Voting Visualizationrcvis.com
- 12Mary Peltola’s Chances of Beating the Dan Sullivans in Alaskanewsweek.com
