Short Answer

Both the model and the market expect the US to start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030, with no compelling evidence of mispricing.

1. Market Behavior & Drivers

This market, which asks if the US will begin building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030, has exhibited a generally upward trend since its inception. The perceived probability has climbed from a low of 27.0% to a high of 64.0%, and currently rests at 58.0%. The most significant price action was a sharp 9.0 percentage point spike on April 24, 2026, which took the price from 55.0% to a peak of 64.0%. This upward move suggests a sudden increase in trader confidence for a "YES" resolution. However, as there is no specific news or public event provided in the context to explain this jump, the catalyst for this specific re-evaluation by the market remains unclear.
From a technical perspective, the market has established a clear resistance level at the 64.0% peak, as the price has since retracted from this high. A potential support level may be forming around the 51.0% to 55.0% range, an area the market recently moved above. The total trading volume of 1,063 contracts indicates a moderate level of engagement over the market's lifespan. The lack of volume in the recent sample data points, despite price changes, could suggest that price discovery is occurring with relatively few trades, potentially making the market sensitive to individual large orders.
Overall, the market sentiment is optimistic for a "YES" outcome, with the price consistently holding above the 50% mark in recent periods. The climb from the all-time low of 27.0% demonstrates a significant positive shift in expectations over time. The recent spike to 64.0% and subsequent pullback to 58.0% indicates that while conviction for a "YES" resolution is strong, traders see the probability as being below two-thirds, and the market is currently consolidating after testing its peak confidence level.
  • Eielson Air Force Base is the pilot site for military microreactor deployment.
  • The U.S. Army's Janus Program targets 2027 for first groundbreaking.
  • DoD actively pursues nuclear microreactors for military base energy security.
  • BWX Technologies and X-energy advance microreactor designs through pre-application.

Who Wins and Why

Outcome Market Model Why
Before 2030 58.0% 50.1% Rapid AI energy demands drive US interest in secure, reliable nuclear power for military data centers.

2. Price Chart

Historical Price (Probability)

Outcome probability
Date

3. Significant Price Movements

Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.

📈 April 24, 2026: 9.0pp spike

Price increased from 55.0% to 64.0%

Outcome: Before 2030

What happened: No supporting research available for this anomaly.

4. Market Data

Contract Snapshot

The market resolves to "Yes" if the US begins the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before January 1, 2030. If this process does not start by then, the market resolves to "No." The outcome is verified using press releases, memoranda, and other orders by the U.S. federal government, and the market will close early if the event occurs; otherwise, it closes by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM EST. Trading is prohibited for individuals employed by Source Agencies or holding material, non-public information.

Available Contracts

Market options and current pricing

Outcome bucket Yes (price) No (price) Last trade probability
Before 2030 $0.58 $0.48 58%

Market Discussion

Traders generally anticipate a "Yes" outcome, expecting the US to initiate construction of a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030, with some expressing strong conviction that this is an obvious or imminent development. While the market leans slightly towards "Yes," one participant highlighted the critical importance of public disclosure from government sources for market resolution, even if a project were to exist without public announcement.

5. Trust Index

Octagon Trust Index Kalshi 77 Good

Order book is critically thin.

Primary risk· Trade quality

How it adds up
Integrity80% of score84Good
Trade quality20% of score48High Risk

Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.

Trust score77Good

Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index

Trust profile
Integrity4 screens run · 6 don't apply
Market integrity
83Good

Outcome is hard to influence

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Large tradesNo single trade dominates the tape. Clear
Thin-volume movesNo significant move Clear
Size patternsNo distribution read Clear
2 screens not run
Outcome control · doesn't apply to this market type
Thin-leg conviction · doesn't apply to this market type
Info fairness
80Good

Structural prior — no screens apply

No suspicious activity on any screen

Screened clean
Information exposureNo concentrated group can know the outcome materially early. Clear
4 screens not run
Move vs. catalyst · doesn't apply to this market type
Longshot repricing · doesn't apply to this market type
Pre-broadcast certainty · doesn't apply to this market type
Cross-venue timing · doesn't apply to this market type
Resolution quality
92Strong

Resolution mechanism is dependable

No suspicious activity on any screen

Resolution rules read: Clear

Liquidity
62Tradeable

Fills fine at modest size

1 contract

Before 203062
Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 27% vs realized 2%
Move quality
70Stable

No significant moves

1 contract

Before 2030—
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100Clear

Counts toward Resolution quality, not here

1 contract

Before 2030100
Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear
Trade quality
48High Risk

Order book is critically thin

Tradable, but expect execution cost beyond small sizes.

Outcome quality 62 (notional-weighted)

$100 order: 8.5c slippage (~16% of a 54.5c contract)

$1,000 order: 20.7c slippage (~38% of a 54.5c contract)

$10,000 order: book too thin to fill

Before 203062Market scoreLiquidity62Move quality–Rule clarity100
Why 62
Liquidity
62 · Tradeable · low confidence

Light recent trading — size may not fill near the screen price.

Book spread 27% vs realized 2%
Move quality
No significant move (3d)

Price was stable over the last 3 days.

Rule clarity
100 · Clear · high confidence

All checks pass

objective outcome · Clearofficial source · Cleartime boundary · Clear

underwriting_v1.4 · computed Sep 23, 2026

6. What is the FY2026 NDAA funding for military microreactors?

FY2026 NDAA Specific Funding for Project Pele/MicroreactorsNot detailed in publicly available summaries [1]
Project Pele Demonstration Microreactor GroundbreakingNovember 2023 at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) [2]
Department of the Air Force Stationary Microreactor Host SitesBuckley Space Force Base and Malmstrom Air Force Base [3]
NDAA documents lack specific funding details for microreactor initiatives. Publicly available summaries of the FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and its joint explanatory statement do not provide specific, granular funding figures directly attributable to Project Pele or other named initiatives for deploying micro-nuclear reactors for stationary power generation on military bases [1]. While the NDAA supports research, development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) for advanced energy solutions and energy resilience, specific budgetary line items for these projects are not detailed in these overview documents. The NDAA does emphasize strategic programs related to developing assured energy solutions, including advanced nuclear power systems, aligning with the broader Department of Defense (DoD) interest in these technologies [4].
Project Pele advanced with a demonstration unit groundbreaking. Project Pele, a key DoD initiative focused on developing a mobile microreactor, achieved a significant milestone in November 2023 when the Department of Defense broke ground on a demonstration unit at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) [2]. This prototype unit, part of the DoD’s Strategic Capabilities Office, is designed to be a 1-5 megawatt electric (MWe) reactor intended to provide resilient power to military bases during critical missions and reduce fuel logistics [2]. The project specifically emphasizes its mobile and transportable nature, distinguishing it from fixed installations [2].
Air Force pursues stationary microreactors for base power. Separately, the Department of the Air Force is actively pursuing stationary microreactors for power generation on military bases. In May 2023, Buckley Space Force Base in Colorado and Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana were identified as potential host sites for these nuclear microreactors [3]. By April 2026, Westinghouse Electric Company and X-Energy had been selected to provide preliminary designs for these microreactor installations at the identified bases [5]. These initiatives collectively underscore the DoD's strategic focus on enhancing energy resilience and security at military installations through advanced nuclear power [6].
Sources (6)
  1. 1FY2026 NDAA: Summary of Funding Authorizations | Congress.gov | Library of Congresscongress.gov
  2. 2Department of Defense Breaks Ground on Project Pele Microreactor | Department of Energyenergy.gov
  3. 3U.S Air Force Approves Nuclear Microreactors for Buckley Space Force Base and Malmstrom Air Force Basethedefensenews.com
  4. 4https://armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/fy26_ndaa_joint_explanatory_statement.pdfarmedservices.house.gov
  5. 5Department of Air Force picks bidders for nuclear microreactors, assigns locations - Breaking Defensebreakingdefense.com
  6. 6https://nuclearinnovationalliance.org/sites/default/files/2025-12/New%20Nuclear%20Reactors%20for%20Military%20Purposes.pdfnuclearinnovationalliance.org

7. Which US Military Bases Are Deploying Nuclear Microreactors?

Eielson AFB Microreactor EIS CompletionLate 2026 [1]
Eielson AFB Microreactor Operational Target2030 [1]
Other Approved Microreactor BasesBuckley Space Force Base, Malmstrom Air Force Base [2]
Eielson Air Force Base leads the permanent microreactor initiative. Eielson AFB in Alaska has been designated as the pilot site by the Department of the Air Force for a permanent microreactor program, which aims to provide resilient, carbon-free power for critical missions. The base is currently undergoing a site-specific Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) as part of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review process [3]. The EIS for Eielson AFB is projected for completion by late 2026, with site preparation potentially beginning in 2027, and the microreactor expected to become operational by 2030 [3].
The Air Force expands microreactor plans, differing from INL's mobile project. Beyond Eielson AFB, the U.S. Air Force has also approved the deployment of nuclear microreactors at Buckley Space Force Base in Colorado and Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana [2]. These installations are slated to advance with detailed site planning, necessary regulatory approvals, and their own environmental impact assessments under NEPA [2]. This differs from the NEPA processes undertaken by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL), which specifically relate to the demonstration of a prototype mobile microreactor, such as Project Pele, rather than a permanent facility intended as a base power source [4].
Sources (4)
  1. 1https://www.eielson.af.mil/Portals/40/ENVIRONMENT/Micro-Reactor/2025%20Updates/DAF%20Microreactor%20Pilot%20Fact%20Sheet_21APR2025.pdf?ver=QH6_KYPLRiM35EsY40KItQ%3D%3Deielson.af.mil
  2. 2U.S Air Force Approves Nuclear Microreactors for Buckley Space Force Base and Malmstrom Air Force Basethedefensenews.com
  3. 3Microreactoreielson.af.mil
  4. 4DoD to Build Project Pele Mobile Microreactor and Perform Demonstration at Idaho National Laboratorydefense.gov

8. What is the current regulatory status of advanced microreactor designs?

BWXT BANR Regulatory StatusSafety analysis methodology received NRC safety evaluation report April 2023 [1]
X-energy XE-100 Regulatory StatusActively participating in NRC pre-application activities and undergoing safety review [2]
Oklo Aurora COL ApplicationDenied January 2022; intent to resubmit October 2023 [3]
BWX Technologies and X-energy actively advance microreactor designs through pre-application activities. BWX Technologies' Advanced Nuclear Reactor (BANR) is actively engaged in pre-application activities with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), having submitted topical reports for its TRISO fuel design and a safety analysis methodology, the latter of which received an NRC safety evaluation report in April 2023 [1]. X-energy's XE-100 microreactor design is also involved in NRC pre-application activities, which have included submitting white papers and topical reports, and undergoing an NRC quality assurance program audit [2]. Both BWXT and X-energy are participating in the U.S. Department of Defense's Project Pele, a program focused on developing mobile microreactors, with their respective designs currently undergoing safety review with the NRC [4].
Oklo's Aurora microreactor faced a regulatory setback, but plans resubmission. The company's Aurora microreactor design encountered a significant regulatory challenge when its Combined License (COL) application was denied by the NRC in January 2022 [3]. This denial was attributed to a lack of sufficient information required for a comprehensive safety review [3]. Despite this, Oklo has indicated its intention to resubmit the Aurora Powerhouse COL application to the NRC, communicating this plan in October 2023. The company is also continuing pre-application activities for its Aurora Powerhouse design [3].
Sources (4)
  1. 1BWXT provides update on microreactor progress - World Nuclear Newsworld-nuclear-news.org
  2. 2X-energy LLC – XE-100 | Nuclear Regulatory Commissionnrc.gov
  3. 3Aurora – Oklo Application | Nuclear Regulatory Commissionnrc.gov
  4. 4DOD Exercises Option on Second Micro Nuclear Reactor Designdefense.gov

9. Are Data Center Operators Partnering with DoD for Microreactors?

DoD Microreactor Target DeploymentBy 2028 [1]
DIU ANPP Program Selected Companies8 companies [2]
Major Tech Companies Exploring NuclearMicrosoft, Amazon, Google, Meta [3]
The DoD actively pursues nuclear microreactors for military base energy security. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is actively pursuing the deployment of advanced nuclear microreactors on military installations to bolster energy resilience and security, with an ambitious goal for operational deployment by 2028 [1]. In 2023, the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) launched its Advanced Nuclear Power for Installations (ANPP) program, selecting eight eligible companies for microreactor designs intended for base deployment. These companies include X-energy, Radiant Nuclear, Oklo Inc., and Westinghouse Electric Company [4]. Radiant Nuclear specifically aims to deliver a microreactor to a U.S. military base by 2028, while X-energy is advancing its designs for national security applications [4]. The primary objective is to provide reliable, carbon-free power for critical base operations and potentially support data centers [5].
Major tech companies independently explore nuclear power for data centers. Separately, major technology companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are independently exploring and investing in nuclear energy, including small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, to power their rapidly expanding data centers [3]. This growing interest is primarily driven by the significant and increasing electricity demands, particularly from artificial intelligence (AI) workloads [3]. Microsoft has hired nuclear energy experts and is evaluating SMRs, while Amazon acquired a data center campus near a nuclear plant. Google has also shown interest in advanced nuclear technologies [3]. These efforts are predominantly focused on securing power for their own commercial data center operations.
No formal partnerships exist for DoD on-base nuclear data centers. However, current research does not indicate any active, formal partnerships or joint ventures between these major data center operators and leading microreactor developers specifically targeting a DoD contract for on-base nuclear-powered data centers. While both the DoD and major technology companies are independently pursuing nuclear energy solutions, their initiatives appear to be distinct rather than collaborative on DoD military base projects [3].
Sources (5)
  1. 1Army Goes Nuclear: Microreactors Set for US Bases By 2028 | Neutron Bytesneutronbytes.com
  2. 2DoD Names Eligible Companies for Advanced Nuclear Power for Installationsdiu.mil
  3. 3Big Tech goes all-in on nuclear as data centers proliferatemarketplace.org
  4. 4X-energy, U.S. Department of Defense to Advance Commercial Microreactor for National Security — X-energyx-energy.com
  5. 5DoD Taps 8 Nuclear SMR Vendors in Push to Deploy On-Site Microreactors: Data Center Energy Implications | Data Center Frontierdatacenterfrontier.com

10. What is the Deployment Timeline for U.S. Military Microreactors?

Army Janus Program Solicitations OpenedAugust 2023 [1]
DAF Eielson AFB Microreactor Construction StartBy 2026 [2]
DAF Eielson AFB Microreactor Operational TargetBy 2029 [3]
The U.S. Army's Janus Program aims for first microreactor groundbreaking by 2027. This program outlines a procurement roadmap for installing commercial microreactors at military installations to power critical infrastructure. The Army opened solicitations for industry proposals in August 2023, seeking to develop, site, and operate lead commercial microreactors, with the goal of awarding multiple contracts by July 2024 [1]. For the first installation under this program, the Army intends to break ground on a military base by 2027 [4]. This initiative focuses specifically on fixed, commercial microreactors, distinct from Project Pele's emphasis on mobile prototypes [5].
The Air Force's Eielson microreactor project anticipates 2026 construction start. The Department of the Air Force (DAF) is pursuing a pilot microreactor project at Eielson Air Force Base, which has a more immediate construction timeline. The DAF anticipates construction to begin in 2026 for this microreactor, with projected operational capability by 2029 [2]. A vendor for the Eielson pilot project is expected to be announced in early 2027 [3]. Both the Army's Janus Program and the DAF's Eielson project are geared towards enhancing energy resilience and providing power for critical infrastructure on U.S. military bases.
Sources (5)
  1. 1U.S. Army opens solicitation for microreactors at military installations - Lexologylexology.com
  2. 2Microreactor pilot reaches major project milestoneeielson.af.mil
  3. 3Department of Air Force picks bidders for nuclear microreactors, assigns locations - Breaking Defensebreakingdefense.com
  4. 4Army wants to break ground for a microreactor on a US base by 2027 - Defense Onedefenseone.com
  5. 5Army announces next steps on Janus Program for next-generation nuclear energy | Article | The United States Armyarmy.mil