Sylvia Luke out as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii?
Yes refers to: Before Nov 1, 2026
Short Answer
Sylvia Luke is likely to be out as Lieutenant Governor before November 1, 2026, with the market pricing this outcome at 84%, significantly above the model's 70.4% expectation. This market expectation prevails despite the postponement of her corruption trial to 2027 and the lack of active legislative impeachment proceedings.
1. Market Behavior & Drivers
The market's most significant swings were contradictory reactions to the September 7, 2026, announcement that Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke's corruption trial was delayed until 2027. This news initially caused the probability of her departure to collapse by 52 percentage points on September 11, as traders priced out the possibility of a removal stemming from a conviction within the contract's timeframe.
A day later, however, the market repriced the situation entirely, with the probability spiking 77 points to its current level of 84.0%. This sharp reversal suggests a second-order interpretation of the news. With Luke already on an indefinite leave of absence since April 2026, the delay was likely seen as increasing political pressure for her to resign or be removed through other means, making a conviction-based removal irrelevant to the final outcome. The market is now pricing a politically forced exit rather than a legally mandated one.
- Sylvia Luke is not out before July 2026; market probability for removal before September is 0%.
- Her corruption trial delay to 2027 makes judicial removal before November 2026 improbable.
- Legislative impeachment is unlikely before November 2026, given the calendar and no active proceedings.
Who Wins and Why
| Outcome | Market | Model | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 84.0% | 70.4% | Her corruption trial's postponement to 2027 makes judicial or legislative removal before Nov 1, 2026 unlikely. |
Current Context
Sylvia Luke remains Lieutenant Governor but is on indefinite leave. Since April 23, 2026, Luke has been on an indefinite, unpaid leave of absence from her position as Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii, following receipt of a target letter regarding a corruption investigation [^][^][^]. Keith Regan, the state comptroller, has served as Acting Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii since April 2026, assuming Luke's constitutional duties during her leave [^][^][^]. As of September 12, 2026, Luke is still listed as the incumbent Lieutenant Governor by the National Association of Secretaries of State [^].
Luke faces indictment, official calls for resignation, and a delayed trial. On July 24, 2026, an Oʻahu grand jury indicted Sylvia Luke on charges of bribery and criminal conspiracy [^][^][^]. Following the indictment, Governor Josh Green formally called for her resignation, but as of September 2026, she had not resigned [^][^][^][^]. The corruption trial for Luke and her co-defendants was originally scheduled for September 2026 but was postponed that month; proceedings are now expected to occur in 2027 [^]. Luke also dropped out of the 2026 race for Lieutenant Governor in April 2026 [^].
2. Price Chart
Historical Price (Probability)
Outcome probability
Date
3. Significant Price Movements
Notable price changes detected in the chart, along with research into what caused each movement.
📈 September 12, 2026: 77.0pp spike
Price increased from 7.0% to 84.0%
Outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026
What happened: The primary driver of the price spike was likely the September 7, 2026, announcement that Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke's corruption trial had been pushed to 2027 [^]. While this delayed a potential conviction-based removal past the "Before Nov 1, 2026" timeframe, it likely increased pressure for her voluntary resignation. Facing an extended period on indefinite leave and a drawn-out legal battle, in addition to previous calls for her resignation from Governor Josh Green [^][^], the market appears to have priced in a higher probability of her stepping down. Social media was not identified as a primary driver.
📉 September 11, 2026: 52.0pp drop
Price decreased from 59.0% to 7.0%
Outcome: Before Nov 1, 2026
What happened: The primary driver of the 52.0 percentage point drop was the announcement on September 7, 2026, that Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke's corruption trial had been pushed to 2027 [^]. This traditional news directly reduced the likelihood of her being removed from office due to legal proceedings before the market's "Before Nov 1, 2026" deadline. This change in the legal timeline made the "out of office" outcome significantly less probable by the specified date. Based on the provided sources, social media activity was not a primary driver and appears irrelevant to this specific market movement.
4. Market Data
Contract Snapshot
This market resolves YES if Sylvia Luke is no longer the Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii at any time before November 1, 2026. It resolves NO if she remains in the position on or after November 1, 2026. The final resolution date for this market is November 1, 2026.
Available Contracts
Market options and current pricing
| Outcome bucket | Yes (price) | No (price) | Last trade probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | $0.67 | $0.98 | 84% |
Market Discussion
As of September 12, 2026, Sylvia Luke remains the Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii but has been on an indefinite, unpaid leave of absence since April 23, 2026, with Keith Regan serving as acting lieutenant governor [^]. She was indicted in July 2026 on charges including criminal conspiracy to commit bribery and bribery, to which she pleaded not guilty, and her trial has been delayed until 2027 [^]. Despite calls for her resignation from Governor Josh Green, Luke has not resigned and ended her campaign for reelection, with her term officially ending on December 7, 2026 [^].
5. Trust Index
Order book is critically thin.
Primary risk· Trade quality
How it adds up
Integrity80% of score30High Risk
Trade quality20% of score4Avoid
Includes the cost to trade: a $10,000 order can't be filled here because the order book is too thin.
Trust score25Avoid
Market integrity (20) is below its safety floor, but the score was already under that cap's ceiling, so no cap applied.
Weighted blend with hard caps — a critically weak safety pillar, or a severe trading anomaly, caps the total regardless of the rest. Full methodology · About the Trust Index
Trust profile
Integrity6 screens run · 1 doesn't apply · 3 awaiting data
6. What legal or political catalysts could force Sylvia Luke's resignation or removal before November 2026, with her trial now delayed to 2027?
| Active Legal Mechanisms for Removal | None currently active before November 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Criminal Trial Date | Delayed to 2027 [^][^] |
| State-level Recall Provision | Not provided by Hawaii law [^] |
No active legal mechanisms currently compel Sylvia Luke's removal or forced resignation. Her criminal trial has been delayed to 2027, making any judicial removal stemming from that process unlikely before November 2026. While Governor Josh Green has publicly called on Luke to resign following her indictment, resignation remains a voluntary political decision on her part [^][^][^][^][^][^].
Impeachment by the legislature represents the primary path for forced removal. The Hawaii House of Representatives holds the sole power to impeach the lieutenant governor, and the Senate is solely empowered to try such impeachments, requiring a two-thirds vote for conviction [^]. However, as of September 12, 2026, no active, forced legal mechanisms, such as impeachment or judicial removal, are currently being executed to compel her removal before November 2026 [^][^][^][^]. Additionally, Hawaii law does not provide for the recall of state-level elected officials [^].
7. What is the legal framework under the Hawaii Constitution that allows Sylvia Luke to remain Lieutenant Governor through late 2026 despite her indictment?
| LG Removal Process | Impeachment by House, conviction by 2/3 Senate vote [^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Sylvia Luke Indictment (Scenario 1) | No public record of indictment as of September 12, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
| Sylvia Luke Indictment (Scenario 2) | Indicted July 2026, on unpaid leave since April 2026 [^][^][^][^][^] |
The Hawaii Constitution outlines specific procedures for removing officials from office. An indictment alone does not automatically lead to removal; rather, the formal process for a Lieutenant Governor involves impeachment by the House of Representatives, followed by conviction through a two-thirds vote of the Senate [^][^][^]. Article V, Section 4 clarifies that while an indictment does not automatically suspend the Lieutenant Governor's authority, an official shall not exercise the powers of the office if impeached until acquitted [^].
Public records regarding Sylvia Luke's alleged indictment present conflicting information. As of September 12, 2026, some sources indicate that no public record or credible evidence has surfaced to suggest that Hawaii Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke has been indicted, and she reportedly continues to serve in her official capacity [^][^][^][^][^]. Based on this information, the premise of an indictment is not supported, which would render the question about the legal framework for remaining in office moot [^][^][^][^].
Other reports suggest Lieutenant Governor Luke was indicted but remains in office. Conversely, another scenario describes Sylvia Luke remaining the Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii as of September 12, 2026, despite reportedly being indicted in July 2026 [^][^][^][^][^]. In this situation, she has not resigned, even after Governor Josh Green publicly called for her resignation [^][^][^][^][^]. She has also been on an indefinite, unpaid leave of absence since April 2026, with Keith Regan serving as the acting Lieutenant Governor [^][^][^][^][^].
8. How do Governor Josh Green's removal options compare with the Hawaii Legislature's impeachment process for an official like Sylvia Luke?
| Governor's authority to remove LG | Not unilateral; reserved for legislature [^][^] |
|---|---|
| Legislature's power to remove LG | Sole power through impeachment [^] |
| Sylvia Luke's status | Remains Lieutenant Governor as of September 12, 2026 [^][^][^][^][^][^][^][^] |
Governor Green cannot unilaterally remove the Lieutenant Governor. Governor Josh Green lacks the constitutional or statutory authority to unilaterally remove the elected Lieutenant Governor from office, as this power is reserved for the legislature [^][^][^][^][^][^]. The Governor's removal authority is generally limited to appointed executive department heads [^][^]. Despite Governor Green repeatedly calling for Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke's resignation following her July 2026 indictment and ongoing criminal investigations, she remains in office as of September 12, 2026, according to available public reports [^][^][^][^].
The Hawaii Legislature alone can remove the Lieutenant Governor. The Hawaii Legislature possesses the exclusive power to remove the Lieutenant Governor through an impeachment process [^]. Under Article III, Section 19 of the Hawaii State Constitution, the Hawaii House of Representatives holds the sole power to impeach the lieutenant governor, and the Hawaii Senate has the sole power to try such impeachments [^][^][^]. A conviction requires a two-thirds vote of the Senate members [^][^][^]. Public information indicates that Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke continues in her role as of September 12, 2026, with a prediction market question regarding her removal before July 2026 having resolved in the negative [^][^][^][^].
9. What is the official procedural timeline for impeachment proceedings in the Hawaii State Legislature, and could it conclude before November 2026?
| Impeachment Procedure Timeline | Not comprehensively codified in Hawaii Revised Statutes [^][^][^][^][^] |
|---|---|
| Impeachment Authority | House impeaches, Senate tries; conviction requires two-thirds Senate vote [^][^][^][^] |
| Impeachment Conclusion Expectation | Unlikely before November 2026 without special session [^][^][^][^] |
Hawaii's impeachment timeline lacks codified, comprehensive statutory procedures. While the Hawaii State Constitution grants the legislature the authority to establish these procedures by law, specific and uniformly applicable rules have not been formally enacted [^][^][^][^][^]. Under Article III, Section 19 of the State Constitution, the House of Representatives holds the sole power to impeach the lieutenant governor, and the Senate possesses the sole power to try such impeachments. A conviction requires a two-thirds majority vote by the Senate, with the Chief Justice of the Hawaii Supreme Court presiding over the trial. Impeachment grounds include "causes that may be provided by law" [^][^][^][^]. In the absence of specific enacted rules, the legislature maintains inherent authority to adopt procedures for individual proceedings as needed [^][^][^][^][^].
Concluding impeachment proceedings before November 2026 is highly improbable. The 2026 Hawaii legislative session concluded on May 7, 2026 [^][^], making it unlikely that formal impeachment proceedings could be initiated, conducted, and concluded within that timeframe unless the legislature were convened in a special session [^][^][^][^]. As of September 2026, there is no evidence of active or concluded impeachment proceedings against Lt. Gov. Sylvia Luke, who was indicted on corruption charges in July 2026 and is currently on unpaid leave [^][^][^][^][^].
10. What precedents exist in Hawaiian political history for indicted officials like Sylvia Luke resigning or being removed from office prior to trial?
| Precedent for removal by indictment alone in Hawaii | None [^] |
|---|---|
| Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke's indictment date | July 2026 [^][^][^][^] |
| Sylvia Luke's trial scheduled date | September 28, 2026 [^][^][^] |
Hawaiian political history lacks precedent for officials removed solely by indictment. There is no specific precedent in Hawaiian political history for an official being removed from office due to an indictment alone prior to trial [^]. Despite this, Lieutenant Governor Sylvia Luke was indicted in July 2026 for criminal conspiracy to commit bribery, bribery, and falsifying candidate committee reports [^][^][^][^]. Luke had previously been identified as a target in the bribery investigation and began an indefinite, unpaid leave of absence from her duties on April 23, 2026 [^][^][^][^].
Luke remains Lieutenant Governor despite calls for her resignation. As of September 12, 2026, Sylvia Luke remains the Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii and is still in office, having pleaded not guilty to the charges [^][^][^][^][^][^][^]. Governor Josh Green has publicly urged her to resign, but Luke has maintained her position [^][^][^][^][^]. Her trial, along with co-defendants, is scheduled for September 28, 2026, and she is currently free on $80,000 bail [^][^][^].
11. What Could Change the Odds
Key Catalysts
Sylvia Luke remains the Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii as of September 12, 2026, though she has been on an indefinite, unpaid leave of absence since April 23, 2026, following a corruption investigation [^] [^] [^] . Gov. Chosen in Hawaii As Luke Takes Leave Of Absence | AP News" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^]. Keith Regan, the state Comptroller, has served as acting lieutenant governor since April 2026, assuming her constitutional duties during her leave [^][^]. Luke reportedly dropped out of the 2026 re-election race in April 2026 [^].
Luke's status intensified following her indictment by an Oahu grand jury on July 24, 2026, on charges including bribery and criminal conspiracy [^] [^] [^] [^] . Gov. Sylvia Luke, 4 others charged in bribery conspiracy | Honolulu Star-Advertiser" data-source-lanes="traditional">[^][^][^][^]. Governor Josh Green has publicly called for her resignation, but she has not resigned [^][^]. This situation led prediction markets, such as Kalshi, to introduce markets regarding whether Luke would resign as Lieutenant Governor, reflecting public interest and speculation about her political future [^][^][^].
Key Dates & Catalysts
- Expiration: September 08, 2026
- Closes: November 01, 2026
12. Decision-Flipping Events
- Trigger: Sylvia Luke remains the Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii as of September 12, 2026, though she has been on an indefinite, unpaid leave of absence since April 23, 2026, following a corruption investigation [^] [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Keith Regan, the state Comptroller, has served as acting lieutenant governor since April 2026, assuming her constitutional duties during her leave [^] [^] .
- Trigger: Luke reportedly dropped out of the 2026 re-election race in April 2026 [^] .
- Trigger: Luke's status intensified following her indictment by an Oahu grand jury on July 24, 2026, on charges including bribery and criminal conspiracy [^] [^] [^] [^] .
14. Historical Resolutions
Historical Resolutions: 1 markets in this series
Outcomes: 0 resolved YES, 1 resolved NO
Recent resolutions:
- KXLUKEOUT-26JUL-26SEP01: NO (Sep 01, 2026)
